Been studying and waiting for it all week... PLAY OF THE YEAR goes off Week 16

[hydrosmak]

I had a good write up for a reply but my browser froze. :\ Anyway, if you like the game yourself then go with it, no one should change your mind. To me, det/oak, bal/sd, pit/sf, det/sd are all the same games.

Team traveling multiple time zones...

[Casey71]

Team traveling multiple time zones...

I see it this way. This is the Lions Super Bowl. Last home game. Can pretty much cinch a playoff birth with a win. This is for the fans.

When Denver beats the Bills and the Raiders lose to the Chiefs...there will be little motivation left for San Diego. A bit of wind out of the sails. Denver has the division.

Most of my picks have been made from motivation. Lions have much more to play for.

Everyone loves the Chargers. But go against the grain here. Take the Lions in the Dome. Well, I'm taking them.

[Mango]

I see it this way. This is the Lions Super Bowl. Last home game. Can pretty much cinch a playoff birth with a win. This is for the fans.

When Denver beats the Bills and the Raiders lose to the Chiefs...there will be little motivation left for San Diego. A bit of wind out of the sails. Denver has the division.

Most of my picks have been made from motivation. Lions have much more to play for.

Everyone loves the Chargers. But go against the grain here. Take the Lions in the Dome. Well, I'm taking them.

Denver does not win the division in that scenario

If SD beat Det and Oak... and Denver lose to KC then SD will be in the playoffs... assuming Oak beat KC... confusing I know

[Casey71]

Denver does not win the division in that scenario

I agree. Not clinch. But Denver "has" the division.

[Mango]

I agree. Not clinch. But Denver "has" the division.

Yea but I would not say there will be little motivation left for San Diego to beat Det...it's the exact opposite

[Casey71]

I think there might be motivation there, for sure. But I just think Detroit has more - for the reasons I mentioned. Should be a great game though.

[chuffinergood]

With regards to the line, even bodog still has this game up at +3.

[Casey71]

That means....action still on Detroit?

[dlunc3]

In looking at this game in depth I see a few things a bit differently than D. I do not necessarily disagree with the pick at this point but have not yet decided where the value is with today's line. I have 5 outs and none of them where ever close to 3 on the San Diego side. The best I can do is 2.5.

I think we have to again look at that offensive line for San Diego. They have played well in the last 3 games. Two of those game were home games against Buffalo who has a non existent pass rush and Baltimore who are kings of the "Bull Rush" The road game was against a Jacksonville squad that started 3 string D-line personnel at 3 of the 4 downed positions.

The D-line of Baltimore had no success against Jared Gaither. You cannot bull rush that guy. Go back and watch the Denver game if you have it available. Gaither really struggled against a speed rush, so did the line as a unit. Rivers was hurried all night and had a very low YPC. He simply did not have a lot of time to let routes develop.

Ford Field will be the loudest place San Diego has played this year. This will be the patchwork lines first game working on a silent count and against a speed rush. Those two rush ends for Detroit, Cliff Avril and KVB have the foot speed to be effective here, especially Avril. You cannot slide and double anyone on the ends with Suh in the game.

Key to the line play is the success against the run. The problem with the Detroit D is that the entire line creates such a push sometimes that they get killed by the quick hitter. They get caught 7 yards deep and goodbye. You cannot have gap control 7 yards deep in an offensive backfield. The Lions have also been beat on a few big reverse plays each game of late and some huge runs by Joe Webb, skewing the rush stats. Their play against backs has not been terrible. We are not going to see a bunch of quarterback draws and wideout reverses here by San Diego. They do not have them written into the play book thus far. If the Lions get beat by the run it will be Matthews and Tolbert between the tackles.

If Fairley plays and is effective he is the key to Detroit's success against the run. His gap control and run awareness are much better than those who play in his stead. If you watched him play in the first half against New Orleans before his foot acted up, you know exactly what I mean. Again, if you have that available take a look.

I am staying on top of the injury situation for Detroit. Coach Schwarz is saying everyone could be back for this game including Delmas, Fairly and Chris Houston. Delmas did not practice today.

What is San Diego going to do with the two tight end 3 wide set. The two times they tried to defend a spread this year they got torched. Once at home to Green Bay and once on the road to New England. I am not saying that Detroit is on the caliber of those two teams but San Diego has not defended that scheme well. Calvin Johnson is a bigger individual concern as matched up against any San Diego corner than either New England or Green Bay present,

Again I do not necessarily disagree with the pick by D and the writeup was bang on in a lot of it's content. I am merely talking the game here with what have to offer.



Good Luck D with this one and to the rest of you with whatever you choose.

Good stuff billy... I always look forward to your insight on games, as you always shine a good light on aspects that the public normally does not look at. I have been meaning to catch you and thankyou for the thoughts on the Cleveland game last week. After reading your writeup, I did some additional research of my own, and cashed in on that winner with you

Regarding this game... I do agree with what you say.. I think the silent count could cause some issues for the patchwork line for SD. This, if anything, is what could keep the game close in my mind. I am not worried as much about Calvin Johnson as you seemed to be as mentioned in the other thread. As seen in recent weeks (not sure what Oak was doing last week), when teams dedicate safety help to Calvin, or even straight double him, this team has struggled... even against some of the worst secondaries in football. After seeing Calvin single handedly beat up on Oakland last week, one has to think that the number 1 priority this week for SD will be to make anyone other then Calvin beat them. In recent memory, when chic, gb, no, ect. made it a priority to keep him in check, the Det offense struggled. Honestly, both defenses in this game could struggle slowing down each other. I personally trust Rivers over Stafford in this big game spot. I have seen this young Det. team fold in big spots their last two times vs gb and no, and have given me no reason to think they show up with their A game this time out on Christmas Eve on a day where they could clinch. Rivers has a much better arsenal of weapons, and I think they expose this det defense in multiple ways. Even if the injured players are back, there could definitely be some rust out there. I have been impressed with SDs defense as of late, but like you pointed out, it has not been against any team that has spread them out like Det can. Det can, and may put points on the board. But as I said, I expect Sd to do the same. Det has not been able to slow averages offenses such as chic, minny, or oak as of late... what might the talented rivers, gates, vjax and company do?

Every game on the board will show weaknesses on each side, esp if the spread is within a fg. You have pointed out, on both this thread and others, what could be glaring weaknesses for SD this week. Though I agree with what you say, I view SD as flat out the better team. They are more talented, more experienced, and flat out playing better football right now. Could det keep this game close? Sure... could they win? If a few things go there way... Sure... But, I have seen enough from this team in past years to know the kind of team they can be when things start to click. I do not expect a close game, but if things go wrong, it could be. But for some reason vegas is giving me a whole field goal to work with here... that is nuts!! The better team that should win this game straight up getting a whole feild goal while hitting their stride? I just cant turn it down...

Like I said, I loved this pick well before the Balt game... the performance in that game has turned it much more into a public play... but once again, I think the public has it right here... Det hasnt played good football in months. Are they capable? No doubt about it... but ill take my chances on a hot experienced team getting points vs a young immature team who has been on a downwards slide since their hot start...

BOL and thanks again for sharing your thoughts

[Quake]

Nice write up! GL

[Koldazzice]

What scares me is I liked the chargers vs the bears earlier in the yr in almost the same kind of spot and the bears covered easily. I know its dec now and its rivers time but I cant get that bears/chargers game out of my head. I'm in the big game in my fantasy league for 2k and have gates and megatron going, so going to lay off this one and just root for my guys.
I do like the play and think there is def value with the ML here and even some alternative lines SD-2.5 SD -3.5 SD-6.5 If your book offers them (usually 5dimes has lines like this)

Good luck with your wager and good effort on the post

[billysink]

Good stuff billy... I always look forward to your insight on games, as you always shine a good light on aspects that the public normally does not look at. I have been meaning to catch you and thankyou for the thoughts on the Cleveland game last week. After reading your writeup, I did some additional research of my own, and cashed in on that winner with you

Regarding this game... I do agree with what you say.. I think the silent count could cause some issues for the patchwork line for SD. This, if anything, is what could keep the game close in my mind. I am not worried as much about Calvin Johnson as you seemed to be as mentioned in the other thread. As seen in recent weeks (not sure what Oak was doing last week), when teams dedicate safety help to Calvin, or even straight double him, this team has struggled... even against some of the worst secondaries in football. After seeing Calvin single handedly beat up on Oakland last week, one has to think that the number 1 priority this week for SD will be to make anyone other then Calvin beat them. In recent memory, when chic, gb, no, ect. made it a priority to keep him in check, the Det offense struggled. Honestly, both defenses in this game could struggle slowing down each other. I personally trust Rivers over Stafford in this big game spot. I have seen this young Det. team fold in big spots their last two times vs gb and no, and have given me no reason to think they show up with their A game this time out on Christmas Eve on a day where they could clinch. Rivers has a much better arsenal of weapons, and I think they expose this det defense in multiple ways. Even if the injured players are back, there could definitely be some rust out there. I have been impressed with SDs defense as of late, but like you pointed out, it has not been against any team that has spread them out like Det can. Det can, and may put points on the board. But as I said, I expect Sd to do the same. Det has not been able to slow averages offenses such as chic, minny, or oak as of late... what might the talented rivers, gates, vjax and company do?

Every game on the board will show weaknesses on each side, esp if the spread is within a fg. You have pointed out, on both this thread and others, what could be glaring weaknesses for SD this week. Though I agree with what you say, I view SD as flat out the better team. They are more talented, more experienced, and flat out playing better football right now. Could det keep this game close? Sure... could they win? If a few things go there way... Sure... But, I have seen enough from this team in past years to know the kind of team they can be when things start to click. I do not expect a close game, but if things go wrong, it could be. But for some reason vegas is giving me a whole field goal to work with here... that is nuts!! The better team that should win this game straight up getting a whole feild goal while hitting their stride? I just cant turn it down...

Like I said, I loved this pick well before the Balt game... the performance in that game has turned it much more into a public play... but once again, I think the public has it right here... Det hasnt played good football in months. Are they capable? No doubt about it... but ill take my chances on a hot experienced team getting points vs a young immature team who has been on a downwards slide since their hot start...

BOL and thanks again for sharing your thoughts

Glad you cashed on Cleveland D.


Don't worry about the public, if you believe in it that is all that matters. You know that anyway.

Good Luck!!!

[BigDan]

whats up with Vjax? heard he missed practice today..

[billysink]

whats up with Vjax? heard he missed practice today..

He hurt his groin in the Baltimore game. Coach Turner says he will play.

With Jackson's past history with groin and hamstring issues and they way he has been limited in playing with them, this is significant.

If he is not 100% and is slowed or in worst case unavailable it would allow help on Floyd.

I cannot make a play either way without some clarification.

[LT Profits]

I HATE Game of the Year threads...But I agree with Chargers.

[BigDan]

He hurt his groin in the Baltimore game. Coach Turner says he will play.

With Jackson's past history with groin and hamstring issues and they way he has been limited in playing with them, this is significant.

If he is not 100% and is slowed or in worst case unavailable it would allow help on Floyd.

I cannot make a play either way without some clarification.

yea i heard it was a hammy and he was expected to go but was thinking exactly along the lines you were here...certainly dont trust him to be fine at this point and we have seen how missing one of their pieces really has a tendency to bog sd down..

[NOboy]

ok. forget about the detroit's pass rush. i have yet to see anyone say anything about detroit's secondary! what is the word on delmas and chris houston? since delmas went out in the green bay game, this secondary has let up points! detroit's defense has let up an average of 28.25 points the last 4 games and 8 passing td's in that span. if delmas is still out, this is a big blow for the lions secondary who will have a hard time covering floyd, vjax, gates, mcmichaels, and vincent brown and lets not forget about mathews and tolbert out of the backfield. so i think my play on this game will rely heavily on delmas's and chris houston's status for the game

[billysink]

ok. forget about the detroit's pass rush. i have yet to see anyone say anything about detroit's secondary! what is the word on delmas and chris houston? since delmas went out in the green bay game, this secondary has let up points! detroit's defense has let up an average of 28.25 points the last 4 games and 8 passing td's in that span. if delmas is still out, this is a big blow for the lions secondary who will have a hard time covering floyd, vjax, gates, mcmichaels, and vincent brown and lets not forget about mathews and tolbert out of the backfield. so i think my play on this game will rely heavily on delmas's and chris houston's status for the game

Add Fairley to that list and that is the correct approach.

[diablozz]

ok. forget about the detroit's pass rush. i have yet to see anyone say anything about detroit's secondary! what is the word on delmas and chris houston? since delmas went out in the green bay game, this secondary has let up points! detroit's defense has let up an average of 28.25 points the last 4 games and 8 passing td's in that span. if delmas is still out, this is a big blow for the lions secondary who will have a hard time covering floyd, vjax, gates, mcmichaels, and vincent brown and lets not forget about mathews and tolbert out of the backfield. so i think my play on this game will rely heavily on delmas's and chris houston's status for the game

I agree on this. Don't think this game is about the Detroit front line but more regarding the secondary. It'll be a problem covering all those talented receivers.

[NOboy]

Add Fairley to that list and that is the correct approach.

i said no one addressed detroit's secondary. fairley has been addressed. and IMO he is not a good pass rusher, take it how you want it, that's my opinion. fairley is more of a run stopper and he isn't even effective there. i havent looked at the games that he played at ypc but as a whole on the season, they allow 5.0+ ypc. tolbert and mathews should have a field day coming out the backfield, but if the secondary can force rivers into mistakes, that's where the battle will be won IMO.

[dlunc3]

I am on phone, so can't say too much.... But the secondary concern was addressed in the original write-up... Here is the latest I can find on the injury report... http://mobile.detroit.sbnation.com/d...report-week-16

[NOboy]

I am on phone, so can't say too much.... But the secondary concern was addressed in the original write-up... Here is the latest I can find on the injury report... http://mobile.detroit.sbnation.com/d...report-week-16

thanks, wasnt really addressing my original post towards you but others in general. all i could see was them talking about the dline creating pressure on sd's makeshift OLine.

[billysink]

i said no one addressed detroit's secondary. fairley has been addressed. and IMO he is not a good pass rusher, take it how you want it, that's my opinion. fairley is more of a run stopper and he isn't even effective there. i havent looked at the games that he played at ypc but as a whole on the season, they allow 5.0+ ypc. tolbert and mathews should have a field day coming out the backfield, but if the secondary can force rivers into mistakes, that's where the battle will be won IMO.

You are very, very wrong about Nick Fairley. You obviously have not seen him play. He is an extremely good run stopper and a dominant force inside. He has only been healthy and in game shape for 3 halves of of football all year. Do yourself a favour and look at the stats he racked up in the first half of the New Orleans game. 3 tackles 1 sack and two tackles for a loss. Gruden could not repeat enough how dominant Fairley was in the first half. Unfortunately his foot acted up again and he could not play the second half.

It does not look good for Fairley again here unfortunately. As I stated without him the Lions will probably struggle against the run which is the key to the game.

I did address the secondary in another thread and thought it might be repetitious to do so again here. To say "forget about the pass rush" is ridiculous . A stellar pass rush is key to coverage downfield. It can take seconds off of route development and make any secondary's job a whole lot easier. I am pretty sure coverage does not matter when your quarterback is running for his life or eating grass.

The corners are all a go for Saturday. Chris Houston has practiced everyday this week. Alphonso Smith is now in game shape, Eric Wright and Aaron Berry are healthy again.

Delmas will probably not go. Fairley has not been through a full practice this week.

Both of those injuries further weaken the Lions against the run. Delmas is one of the best open field one on one tacklers on the team.

[billysink]

Today's practice report

http://www.freep.com/article/20111222/SPORTS01/111222013/Safety-Chris-Harris-returns-to-Detroit-Lions-practice-today-after-suffering-concussion

[billysink]

Vincent Jackson still unable to get through a full practice. May not have practiced at all.

http://web.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/dec/22/jackson-withheld-start-thursday-drills/

[dlunc3]

http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3202/vincent-jackson

[dlunc3]

Gotta hope, as a veteran, he's just resting up and will be good to go Saturday in this must win game

[billysink]

http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3202/vincent-jackson

If Jax is limited or unable to go that really changes this game.

Rotoworld does not seem to know that other than Delmas all hands will be on deck in the Lions secondary.

Chris Harris is likely to start for Delmas. Big drop off there, especially against the run.

[billysink]

Gotta hope, as a veteren, he's just resting up and will be good to go Saturday in this must win game

He has a terrible history of not being able to play well when less than 100%.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Detroit has too much fire power for san diego.

[dlunc3]

Detroit has too much fire power for san diego.

did you see them in their last two big time games? completed folded vs two of the nfls worst defenses Gb and NO... where was all that fire power?

[billysink]

did you see them in their last two big time games? completed folded vs two of the nfls worst defenses Gb and NO... where was all that fire power?

No healthy running back in either of those two games. Both teams were able to double underneath on CJ.

Stafford had the glove on as well for about 4 games and his accuracy was poor. He was much better against Oakland. That was his second without the glove and I think he is back to where he should be.

That is the funny thing about handicapping NFL and for that matter any sport. There is constant change in availablity, player health, scheming around those issues and on and on. The ability to digest what you have seen on past performance but still be able to adapt to what you might see moving forward is key. Don't get stuck in a rut with any team or matchup. They are all so different each week.

As that pertains to this one, Smith is close to 100% and you saw how well Stafford controlled the ball last week.

The offense should improve from what we have seen of recent.

[dlunc3]

No healthy running back in either of those two games. Both teams were able to double underneath on CJ.

Stafford had the glove on as well for about 4 games and his accuracy was poor. He was much better against Oakland. That was his second without the glove and I think he is back to where he should be.

That is the funny thing about handicapping NFL and for that matter any sport. There is constant change in availablity, player health, scheming around those issues and on and on. The ability to digest what you have seen on past performance but still be able to adapt to what you might see moving forward is key. Don't get stuck in a rut with any team or matchup. They are all so different each week.

As that pertains to this one, Smith is close to 100% and you saw how well Stafford controlled the ball last week.

The offense should improve from what we have seen of recent.

I agree to an extent... though I like smith, and do think he is an upgrade, morris has filled in and put forth a very nice effort. I dont think that team wants to run the ball, regardless who is back there right now. Stafford actually played well vs N.O. in my opinion.. he has actually played well the last 3 weeks (tho it was against no, minny and oak). Still, I have not seen this team play a complete game in a long time, and have not seen them show up in the big spot. Weak offenses such as oak, minny, chic have torched them... we could be looking at a shootout, but I would say sd has a better chance of slowing det then the other way around... But if im wrong, i have those 3 points as insurance

(wouldnt mind vjax out on the practice field tomorrow though)

[dlunc3]

Source: Detroit Free Press
"Lions DB Don Carey sustained a concussion in Week 15. Carey took a blind-side hit to the head on kickoff coverage last week. Unlike FS Chris Harris, the special teamer has yet to be cleared for a return to practice." Not a huge deal, but any injury helps

[Thehusker]

Week 17 ; so just know that nothing will be concluded till week 17

"they didn't have a lockout for no reason."