Been studying and waiting for it all week... PLAY OF THE YEAR goes off Week 16

[BigDan]

12/06/2011 02:44 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/02/2011 11:05 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/01/2011 11:46 PM dlunc3 edited 1 of their picks
11/30/2011 08:23 PM dlunc3 deleted 3 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.

[BigDan]

not to mention you only have it going back a month..

i have no clue whether or not you are hitting as much as you say or if you simply made a mistake and edited a pick but no way can you say "look at my spreadsheet as proof"... ..

[Deol]

I think theres absolutely no way you've only had one losing week in 2011 with your love of the EAGLES. The Lions arent fradulent I think you are. And for your pick, I love SD and PHI this week. Parlay them at almost +400 is what I'ma do. And I've had many losing weeks thus year unfortunately so I'm semi-chasing with this one (both ML). GL regardless!!

[dlunc3]

that cause he screwed up all my joke material by not making it on the Eagles...

could have made the writeup smaller and just said "Rivers in dec" and it would have worked.. see my jokes are no good now...

Loved the eagles ML and getting points two weeks ago in Miami, but did not touch them last week, and prob wont be again this season. Unless they miraculously meet up with Det, or even SF later in the playoffs, in a spot where I see value, ill just enjoy the ride from the sidelines (like I tried to do with the stupid phills luckily I didnt touch them in the post season yet again this yr... coulda gotten ugly)

[BigDan]

Loved the eagles ML and getting points two weeks ago in Miami, but did not touch them last week, and prob wont be again this season. Unless they miraculously meet up with Det, or even SF later in the playoffs, in a spot where I see value, ill just enjoy the ride from the sidelines (like I tried to do with the stupid phills luckily I didnt touch them in the post season yet again this yr... coulda gotten ugly)

i have no idea about the dal/phi gm but i was def gonna blast you if they were your play of the year

[dlunc3]

I think theres absolutely no way you've only had one losing week in 2011 with your love of the EAGLES. The Lions arent fradulent I think you are. And for your pick, I love SD and PHI this week. Parlay them at almost +400 is what I'ma do. And I've had many losing weeks thus year unfortunately so I'm semi-chasing with this one (both ML). GL regardless!!

I have no reason to lie... I had down summer, as baseball kicked my butt this yr... but this fall has been a different story. I have no reason to make up stories, I know none of you guys and would benefit nothing by telling stories. All of my plays have been tracked 100% since 12/1 on my spreadsheet-- http://dlunc3.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
This week was a hit to me, but still doing ok just grinding this month. Yes, I do have a love for the Eagles, but I try to keep my passion for a team and my wallet a separate thing. I do the same in baseball... I get enough of a high just watching my teams play... unless i see value, i try to limit the action on my teams as much as possible. And a word of caution... though I do expect philly to show up and put up a great fight in dallas, I do expect it to be a battle. Romo is playing at his all time high, and that team is clicking. Rob Ryan on the other hand, has no clue how to slow vick and this offense... I expect a great game, with a slim eagles victory... But I will be enjoying from purely a fans standpoint.

[Big Bear]

I see the play now Chargers +3 I like it. But I think I will take it a step further and take the alternate line Chargers -3

[Big Bear]

no way the Lions should be favored in this one.


Chargers in a blowout!

[dlunc3]

I see the play now Chargers +3 I like it. But I think I will take it a step further and take the alternate line Chargers -3

I like that thought... good call.. definitely worth a look.

[Big Bear]

my only concern is


will Suh hurt Rivers ? Suh is a big nasty dirty player. Hopefully that O-line will protect him.

[dlunc3]

my only concern is


will Suh hurt Rivers ? Suh is a big nasty dirty player. Hopefully that O-line will protect him.

Yea thats true... they did a great job vs that nasty pass rush that Baltimore brought to town on Sunday... gotta hope that continues...Hopefully Suh learned his lesson during his timeout... I doubt it though..

[BigDan]

Yea thats true... they did a great job vs that nasty pass rush that Baltimore brought to town on Sunday... gotta hope that continues...Hopefully Suh learned his lesson during his timeout... I doubt it though..

i doubt he hurt Rivers, i mean if you lose a bet like that so be it..cant cap that shit...i do worry about the o-line still as while true they did a good job sunday night that was def a spot where i expected to get flat Ravens so the protection was prob a 50/50 split between sd doing a good job and balty not showing up.

[agendaman]

c/o dlunc3 /all/website should award you 50 sbr pts. for your effort alone regardless of truth/falsity of your thread just this/since 2006 san diego is 24w-2losses in dec. also lions and falcons are both 9-5/wildcard wrapped up even w/losses this wk. by both/finally lions may be deflated after that incredible 99yd. drive vs. raiders/only this n.suh a monster at home love s.d./over here/gl dl3

[SportsPedagogy]

I put some on your play! Also a bit on superbowl futures ! Eagles, saints, texans, and chargers ! All solid dark horses that could get hot ! (if eagles and chargers make it in)

[dlunc3]

12/06/2011 02:44 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/02/2011 11:05 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/01/2011 11:46 PM dlunc3 edited 1 of their picks
11/30/2011 08:23 PM dlunc3 deleted 3 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.

You are correct, but look at the dates of these modifications... I deleted 3 plays on 11/30, as I wanted to make the spreadsheet start on 12/1, and update it monthly. Since, I have become much more comfortable with the ins and outs of the spreadsheet, and have not had a modification in a while. Even still, even if the 7 deleted plays were losses, the spreadsheet would still show 58-45. I do the spreadsheet for my own record keeping. Many times I am not able to post the plays until the next day or late that night. I have become very comfortable with the spreadsheet now. If you take the time to look at the modifications, please note the time of the adjustments. Most are midafternoon on weekdays, as I was preparing for my nightly bets. I also have put in more amounts on certain games at later points, which is why the edits are shown. Rather then listing it as two wagers, I have increased the wager size on the bet that was already logged (now that you point it out though, it would look shady from an outside view).

Either way, I am not trying to prove anything to anyone. Whether it shows. 58-38, or 58-45, it should not matter to anyone but myself. What good would it do for me to make changes? the purpose of a spreasheet is to keep track of personal wagers... making changes is pointles.. If I wanted to be dishonest to myself, I would have edited my largest wager of the month, $1040 loss on the niners

I have kept track of my bets for years with just a pen and notebook... I suck at excel, so was thrilled to find the spreadsheet setup that this site offers. My brain would hurt some weeks trying to add and subtract all my bets its a nice tool if you arent already using it

[dlunc3]

not to mention you only have it going back a month..

i have no clue whether or not you are hitting as much as you say or if you simply made a mistake and edited a pick but no way can you say "look at my spreadsheet as proof"... ..

Just for you buddy...

History for :MPA4179

From 12/05/2011 to 12/11/2011

Beginning
Of Week Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Win/Loss 1278 -40 600 -54 200 -320 1560 3224
Cash In/Out 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balance -1734 -456 -496 104 50 250 -70 1490 1490


From 12/12/2011 to 12/18/2011

Beginning
Of Week Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Win/Loss -155 -20 170 200 -260 -20 -952 -1037
Cash In/Out 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balance 1490 1335 1315 1485 1685 1425 1405 453 453


History for :MPA4179

From 12/19/2011 to 12/25/2011

Beginning
Of Week Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Win/Loss -115 0 0 0 0 0 0 -115
Cash In/Out 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balance 453 338 338 338 338 338 338 338 338


Only plays missing would be from 12/1-12/5, as my site will not allow me to go back more then 2 weeks... also, I have made a few super $5 or $10 parlays that I have not listed on the spreadsheet.

My other local cut me off until he can pay me off (i know, its a joke)... so I am stuck with one book for now. I am considering starting up again with an offshore.... any suggestions?

[dlunc3]

I put some on your play! Also a bit on superbowl futures ! Eagles, saints, texans, and chargers ! All solid dark horses that could get hot ! (if eagles and chargers make it in)

Love the saints... and love your thoughts on the birds and chargers too!... texans would be a longshot with that qb... such a shame, I thought they could do some serious damage this yr

[dlunc3]

Is there anyone that will be betting the Lions this week? I am curious to hear any thoughts to play devils advocate on this play..

[k13]

I really don't see this as a good play let alone a play of the year.

Very bad spot for San Diego.

[dlunc3]

I really don't see this as a good play let alone a play of the year.

Very bad spot for San Diego.

what is your reasoning?

[VTranX]

i like you Dlunc but sbr spreadsheets are more fraudulent than the Lions..

12/12/2011 05:55 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/12/2011 05:55 PM dlunc3 edited 1 of their picks
12/10/2011 10:53 AM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/10/2011 10:52 AM dlunc3 edited 1 of their picks
12/08/2011 08:57 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/06/2011 02:44 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/06/2011 02:44 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet. 12

[YouHave2outs]

I really don't see this as a good play let alone a play of the year.

Very bad spot for San Diego.

I like San Diego as well. Care to elaborate?

[dlunc3]

good contribution... I hope you win your bets this week as well

[4TH AND STUPID]

Is there anyone that will be betting the Lions this week? I am curious to hear any thoughts to play devils advocate on this play..

i will be betting lions and here is why,


detroit has been an ok team all year. inconsistent, ups, downs, defensive issues, inconsistency on offense, and running back injuries.


but, the NFL is all about what team gets hot at the right time. the regular season means fuk all, and once the playoffs start , teams like philly, detroit, the jets, they can all be legitimate super bowl contenders again.




we saw that when arizona made their super bowl run, and we've seen it with several other teams like the bears with grossman and the seahawks upset over the saints last year.




detroit had their 'special game' last week. when you are on the fence between "pretender or contender", you get to a point where an identity of your team has to be formed.


detroit formed that identity yesterday. a team that wont quit. we saw it in the carolina game when they game back from a seemingly impossible defecit and crushed carolina.

these guys have heart. they wont quit. and more importantly kevin smith is healthy again. i think that as a unit detroit has been through a lot of trials and tribulations -- several stafford injuries, running back injuries, suspensions, defensive controversy, the thrill of 5-0, the agony of a losing streak. but when it came down to it they picked themselves up and proved that they can open up a spread offense with 5 mins left in a fourth quarter and score a must win touchdown.


i think next week they wont fall behind like that becuase of a newfound confidence level within the team. i expect detroit to end san diego's season, while picking off rivers a couple of times in the process. passing offenses dont beat detroit. its torturous run games that do. i dont see san diego running the ball enough in this game and that will probably be their downfall because rivers is due for a bad game, and so is NORV TURNER.



i fully expect detroit to clinch a playoff berth and go on to cause some seriously traumatizing upsets. you can NEVER count off an offense with this many rediculous weapons. i will compare them to arizona a couple years back when they had to put up 50 ish points in a playoff game to get it done.


good luck on your play but i would definitely not call this 'game of the year' and i would be very hesitant to bet against detroit and lay so many units on such a stupid head coach in norv, after an opponent had such a HUGE HUge confidence boosting win like the one last week in the black hole for the lions.

[p19101]

I really don't see this as a good play let alone a play of the year.

Very bad spot for San Diego.

I care to disagree, I like this bet but at the ML.

[dlunc3]

i will be betting lions and here is why,


detroit has been an ok team all year. inconsistent, ups, downs, defensive issues, inconsistency on offense, and running back injuries.


but, the NFL is all about what team gets hot at the right time. the regular season means fuk all, and once the playoffs start , teams like philly, detroit, the jets, they can all be legitimate super bowl contenders again.




we saw that when arizona made their super bowl run, and we've seen it with several other teams like the bears with grossman and the seahawks upset over the saints last year.




detroit had their 'special game' last week. when you are on the fence between "pretender or contender", you get to a point where an identity of your team has to be formed.


detroit formed that identity yesterday. a team that wont quit. we saw it in the carolina game when they game back from a seemingly impossible defecit and crushed carolina.

these guys have heart. they wont quit. and more importantly kevin smith is healthy again. i think that as a unit detroit has been through a lot of trials and tribulations -- several stafford injuries, running back injuries, suspensions, defensive controversy, the thrill of 5-0, the agony of a losing streak. but when it came down to it they picked themselves up and proved that they can open up a spread offense with 5 mins left in a fourth quarter and score a must win touchdown.


i think next week they wont fall behind like that becuase of a newfound confidence level within the team. i expect detroit to end san diego's season, while picking off rivers a couple of times in the process. passing offenses dont beat detroit. its torturous run games that do. i dont see san diego running the ball enough in this game and that will probably be their downfall because rivers is due for a bad game, and so is NORV TURNER.



i fully expect detroit to clinch a playoff berth and go on to cause some seriously traumatizing upsets. you can NEVER count off an offense with this many rediculous weapons. i will compare them to arizona a couple years back when they had to put up 50 ish points in a playoff game to get it done.


good luck on your play but i would definitely not call this 'game of the year' and i would be very hesitant to bet against detroit and lay so many units on such a stupid head coach in norv, after an opponent had such a HUGE HUge confidence boosting win like the one last week in the black hole for the lions.

but, the NFL is all about what team gets hot at the right time. the regular season means fuk all, and once the playoffs start , teams like philly, detroit, the jets, they can all be legitimate super bowl contenders again.

Thank you for your thoughts...We are obviously not on the same page, which is fine, thats what keeps vegas alive... Regarding the boldest point above... You mention veteran teams like philly and ny, who have done this time and time again in past years. Based on this argument, wouldnt SD be the better team to lump into that category? They are hot at the right time, they have the coach and qb who have been in this spot many times before, and have succeeded. SD is clicking on both sides of the ball, while Det hasnt been able to slow a below average minny or oak team as of late. Wouldnt you agree that SD is the hot team right now, not Det.? I agree with many of your points, but I think the point they prove is that Sd is the team that belongs in the group with the sb contender, as there is no hotter team in football right now... rather then a young det team who has shown nothing but immaturity all season, who has not played good football in two months.

[bucsfan]

Dlunc 3 Just a thought. Denver-Buffalo is a 1pm game. If Denver wins they clinch the division or at least that is what I am led to think. Det-San Diego is a 4pm game so if Denver wins San Diego would have no shot at the division. If it comes down to the wild card they would need help as well cause the Jets hold the tie-breaker over them cause of beating them head to head or am i wrong

[dlunc3]

Good thought... and that is true..since Denver will have one extra win vs a common opponent, they will have the edge on the division even if they go 1-1. Sd will only be eliminated from the wild card this week though if they lose. There are so many scenarios, I think at this point, SD will give it their all, and hope for the best. A Denver loss would be big though.

SD can not win the division with a Denver win

SD eliminated from playoff spot with SD loss + CIN win or tie

SD eliminated from playoff spot with SD loss + NYJ win or tie

SD eliminated from playoff spot with SD tie + CIN win + DEN win

SD eliminated from playoff spot with SD tie + NYJ win or tie + CIN win + DEN tie

SD eliminated from playoff spot with SD tie + NYJ win + DEN win

SD eliminated from playoff spot with SD tie + NYJ win + CIN tie + DEN tie

[bucsfan]

Dont get me wrong Dlunc3, I am on board with you for a number of points you made. most of all a young immature team with many distractions so lets get that cash

[dlunc3]

Dont get me wrong Dlunc3, I am on board with you for a number of points you made. most of all a young immature team with many distractions so lets get that cash

I am in love with the woman in your avatar.. hopefully, for your sake, that is your girl i am talking about

Fake or not... its not often you see a set like those out and about like that

[k13]

I had a good write up for a reply but my browser froze. :\

Anyway, if you like the game yourself then go with it, no one should change your mind.

To me, det/oak, bal/sd, pit/sf, det/sd are all the same games.

[billysink]

In looking at this game in depth I see a few things a bit differently than D. I do not necessarily disagree with the pick at this point but have not yet decided where the value is with today's line. I have 5 outs and none of them where ever close to 3 on the San Diego side. The best I can do is 2.5.

I think we have to again look at that offensive line for San Diego. They have played well in the last 3 games. Two of those game were home games against Buffalo who has a non existent pass rush and Baltimore who are kings of the "Bull Rush" The road game was against a Jacksonville squad that started 3 string D-line personnel at 3 of the 4 downed positions.

The D-line of Baltimore had no success against Jared Gaither. You cannot bull rush that guy. Go back and watch the Denver game if you have it available. Gaither really struggled against a speed rush, so did the line as a unit. Rivers was hurried all night and had a very low YPC. He simply did not have a lot of time to let routes develop.

Ford Field will be the loudest place San Diego has played this year. This will be the patchwork lines first game working on a silent count and against a speed rush. Those two rush ends for Detroit, Cliff Avril and KVB have the foot speed to be effective here, especially Avril. You cannot slide and double anyone on the ends with Suh in the game.

Key to the line play is the success against the run. The problem with the Detroit D is that the entire line creates such a push sometimes that they get killed by the quick hitter. They get caught 7 yards deep and goodbye. You cannot have gap control 7 yards deep in an offensive backfield. The Lions have also been beat on a few big reverse plays each game of late and some huge runs by Joe Webb, skewing the rush stats. Their play against backs has not been terrible. We are not going to see a bunch of quarterback draws and wideout reverses here by San Diego. They do not have them written into the play book thus far. If the Lions get beat by the run it will be Matthews and Tolbert between the tackles.

If Fairley plays and is effective he is the key to Detroit's success against the run. His gap control and run awareness are much better than those who play in his stead. If you watched him play in the first half against New Orleans before his foot acted up, you know exactly what I mean. Again, if you have that available take a look.

I am staying on top of the injury situation for Detroit. Coach Schwarz is saying everyone could be back for this game including Delmas, Fairly and Chris Houston. Delmas did not practice today.

What is San Diego going to do with the two tight end 3 wide set. The two times they tried to defend a spread this year they got torched. Once at home to Green Bay and once on the road to New England. I am not saying that Detroit is on the caliber of those two teams but San Diego has not defended that scheme well. Calvin Johnson is a bigger individual concern as matched up against any San Diego corner than either New England or Green Bay present,

Again I do not necessarily disagree with the pick by D and the writeup was bang on in a lot of it's content. I am merely talking the game here with what have to offer.



Good Luck D with this one and to the rest of you with whatever you choose.

[4TH AND STUPID]

In looking at this game in depth I see a few things a bit differently than D. I do not necessarily disagree with the pick at this point but have not yet decided where the value is with today's line. I have 5 outs and none of them where ever close to 3 on the San Diego side. The best I can do is 2.5.

I think we have to again look at that offensive line for San Diego. They have played well in the last 3 games. Two of those game were home games against Buffalo who has a non existent pass rush and Baltimore who are kings of the "Bull Rush" The road game was against a Jacksonville squad that started 3 string D-line personnel at 3 of the 4 downed positions.

The D-line of Baltimore had no success against Jared Gaither. You cannot bull rush that guy. Go back and watch the Denver game if you have it available. Gaither really struggled against a speed rush, so did the line as a unit. Rivers was hurried all night and had a very low YPC. He simply did not have a lot of time to let routes develop.

Ford Field will be the loudest place San Diego has played this year. This will be the patchwork lines first game working on a silent count and against a speed rush. Those two rush ends for Detroit, Cliff Avril and KVB have the foot speed to be effective here, especially Avril. You cannot slide and double anyone on the ends with Suh in the game.

Key to the line play is the success against the run. The problem with the Detroit D is that the entire line creates such a push sometimes that they get killed by the quick hitter. They get caught 7 yards deep and goodbye. You cannot have gap control 7 yards deep in an offensive backfield. The Lions have also been beat on a few big reverse plays each game of late and some huge runs by Joe Webb, skewing the rush stats. Their play against backs has not been terrible. We are not going to see a bunch of quarterback draws and wideout reverses here by San Diego. They do not have them written into the play book thus far. If the Lions get beat by the run it will be Matthews and Tolbert between the tackles.

If Fairley plays and is effective he is the key to Detroit's success against the run. His gap control and run awareness are much better than those who play in his stead. If you watched him play in the first half against New Orleans before his foot acted up, you know exactly what I mean. Again, if you have that available take a look.

I am staying on top of the injury situation for Detroit. Coach Schwarz is saying everyone could be back for this game including Delmas, Fairly and Chris Houston. Delmas did not practice today.

What is San Diego going to do with the two tight end 3 wide set. The two times they tried to defend a spread this year they got torched. Once at home to Green Bay and once on the road to New England. I am not saying that Detroit is on the caliber of those two teams but San Diego has not defended that scheme well. Calvin Johnson is a bigger individual concern as matched up against any San Diego corner than either New England or Green Bay present,

Again I do not necessarily disagree with the pick by D and the writeup was bang on in a lot of it's content. I am merely talking the game here with what have to offer.



Good Luck D with this one and to the rest of you with whatever you choose.

top post.

[GoBlue77]

Yea thats true... they did a great job vs that nasty pass rush that Baltimore brought to town on Sunday... gotta hope that continues...Hopefully Suh learned his lesson during his timeout... I doubt it though..

just a FYI - Baltimore doesnt bring anything to town when going on the road, it was a total lay down effort on their part so I wouldnt gauge anything from that game.

and does anybody else think its funny when ray lewis does his little Pre-Game dance and motivational speach, like seriously ray if you are goin to shut it down on the road and quit, save them 'im a bad ass speeches' lol.


i like your play tho, go ch-ch-cha-chargers!

[NYSportsGuy210]

Once again....OVER in points is the play.