Green Bay @ Detroit breakdown

[SteveRyan]

Regardless of all these stats being thrown around, gb is the better team and betting the det ml is throwing money in the garbage disposal

Its hard for me to take the dog in the match just because of how badly Chicago killed em a few weeks ago. They may have changed a few things and resolved some issues since then, but I just don't have enough confidence to bet ML or take points.

[mp5070]

GB -6...Thank me Later....

[BiGTonyHAHA]

yeah... detroit also sits at home and waits for the packers who travels to play an early game... i know michigan is not as far as east coast west coast but its still travel nonetheless

[freakydave]

Lol det is playing its 3rd game in 11 days... Yea that 24 hour difference is really gonna play a huge factor in this game

[BiGTonyHAHA]

yeah im glad freakydave had something intelligent to add to this post... its still travel day... as we know your packers fan... who have barely played anybody all year minnesota (2) carolina (1) denver(1) st louis(1) and tb(1) those teams combined record of 15-35. so take your queer smiley and blow it out ur ass

[freakydave]

yeah im glad freakydave had something intelligent to add to this post... its still travel day... as we know your packers fan... who have barely played anybody all year minnesota (2) carolina (1) denver(1) st louis(1) and tb(1) those teams combined record of 15-35. so take your queer smiley and blow it out ur ass

Do you know the difference in the 2 scheds DET plays Dallas & SF -GB plays NYG & STL every other team is the same. Det has 1 game tougher than GB & they already lost it.Det +6 is the right side it doesn't mean it will win.
Travel isn't a real reason that's all I'm sayin.

[BiGTonyHAHA]

detroit does play sf and dallas while green bay does not green bays remaining schedule got giants next and oakland maybe the other 2 tough teams they face they got kc there a joke and chicago no cutler. they have one of the easiest schedule this year. imo

[freakydave]

detroit does play sf and dallas while green bay does not green bays remaining schedule got giants next and oakland maybe the other 2 tough teams they face they got kc there a joke and chicago no cutler. they have one of the easiest schedule this year. imo

are you deaf?[/sarcasm] reading impaired? Det plays the same teams except SF > STL -DALLAS= NYG
DETROIT'S sched is not that much tougher 1 game & it's over.When the schedules were made Nobody expected SF to be so dominate. but that was just Detroit's bad luck.

[Grosshhit]

Det ML is the only play here cause if they do lose it will be ugly..................

Ok and with that logic why not take GB -6.5?

[SteveRyan]

Ok and with that logic why not take GB -6.5?

Cause GB winning by 7 is not ugly

[billysink]

Ok genius. You want intelligent? Bears are ranked 13th in points allowed per game. The Lions are ranked 19th. So yes there is some truth to the fact that the Bears defense is better than the Lion's defense.

As for how those points were distributed -

Bears had 3 out of 10 teams they played score over 24 points on them (NO, GB, and Car). 2 scored exactly 24 (one of which was Detroit at home). The rest were taken care of as they should have been save letting up 24 and 20 to more reputable offenses such as the Eagles and Chargers respectively.

Detroit on the other hand gave up over 24 points 4 times. 2 of the 4 times they let up over 24 points were their last 2 straight games (Bears 37 points allowed and Carolina 35 points allowed). Then there's the fact they had to play catch up to Minnesota, Dallas, and Carolina.

The Lions defense is not playing as well as everyone thinks and the numbers show this. They will let up points and their offense is not as good enough to keep up with Rodgers and his receiving core.

Bears defense is better than the Lions and the Packers will win Thursday.

When are you folks gonna make some effort to comprehend what I am saying, I am talking about Lions defense. They did not give up 37 points to the Bears. Nor did they give up 35 to the Panthers. They gave up 16 to the Bears and barely more than 200 yards of offense. They also surrendered a return touchdown to the Panthers.

Special teams scores and INT returns are not points given up by the defense.

That is why your logic of grading defenses by points per game does not work in assessing a teams defense. Most sites simply do the same thing as you did here. Take the number of points surrendered by a team in a year and divide them by number of games played. That is assessed as PPG in a defense ranking. I am sorry but that is not even close to a true representation of defensive strength.

Take away pick 6's and return touchdowns and then get a total number. And divide that by games played. That will give you an accurate indication of the strength of a defense.

And if you take the time to do so which I rather doubt you will, you will then find that your assessment of the Bears defense vs. the Lions my change. Rather drastically. I already have done so and you are wrong.

That is why yards per play is the most accurate indication of strengths and weaknesses a team possesses.

But who cares about accuracy.

That was a nice try on intelligent but far from accurate. Much better than GTFO mind you but you gotta work harder than that.

Thanks for joining the discussion though.

[HENHOUSE]

41-35 someone...the OVER is a whole lot easier folks...hahahaha

[billysink]

lions have lost to the last 3 quality opponents they have faced (49ers, falcons, bears) so why think it's going to be different now that they face an even better team? they might cover but i wouldn't bet on it. definitely wouldn't bet on ML as +225 isnt doing it for me -- i can't see much reason to think they win this game almost 1/3 of the time. they are an overvalued team to begin with and haven't beaten quality teams in their last 3 tries. also stafford finished the carolina game great, but still his fractured finger can't be a good thing. that awful bears performance was just 10 days ago, and all the picks of late are concerning

Well I will tell you flat out that the Green Bay Packers defense is not "quality".

Their last loss was totally on the offense on a day in Chicago in which the wind was blowing 40 MPH gusting to 60. Stafford did not adjust at all to those conditions. If you check the play by play every one of his misses was short. Resulted in some picks and a ton of incompletions. Cutler only completed 9 passes that day. The Bears did not need to throw it much after they got the big lead.

The San Fran and Atlanta losses were legit and I will tell you that Detroit will not win against a team that can flat out stuff the run. San Fran and Atlanta are allowing the least YPG on the ground this year.

Green Bay is no where near as good at stopping anything as those two teams.

That is a blanket statement "quality teams". I beg to differ. Green Bay is an extreme quality team on offense, not even close on D.

Detroit is a quality team on both sides of the ball.

[billysink]

Detroit's defense is better than Green Bay and Chicago in terms of yardage allowed. The Green Bay and Chicago defenses are better in points allowed. Your right, the math is fairly simple.

No Meader it is not that simple. Your attempt to make it simple is simple.

Neither the Green Bay defense nor the Chicago defense is better in points allowed per game. You are factoring in special teams points allowed and points allowed by the offense on INT returns.

Those are not defensive points allowed.




Sometime I have to just shake my head.

[billysink]

Billy great thread -Even though I know your right I will still bet small on GB just for entertainment.
On the Handicapping side of it what are your thoughts on best being out? I don't think Smith is striking fear in the hearts of the Packers D.

Hi Dave!!

I think the Lions have now adjusted to Best being out. I do not make that a negative at all. Best is a huge weapon as a reciever. They split him out wide a lot with an empty backfield and he needs safety attention at all times when on the field. What he is not is a ball control back. You are never gonna grind an opponent down with Javid Best. He is a threat to break one at any time but virtually useless as a run option on third down. His presence as Detroit's lead back is a big reason they are near last in the league at converting third downs.

Smith and Morris do not warrant any safety attention. That is fine with me here as Green Bay will struggle enough with what is on the field. Smith is a powerful runner and can grind out yardage. I would rather have him in the backfield to exploit what I think is a front four who can be vulnerable against the run.

The Lion's YPC has gone up significantly since Best has gone down. It was languishing around 3.6 with him and now sits at 4.3. The Lions had better hold on to a power back option because they will never beat the likes of Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta or San Fran. who all stuff the run like a Thanksgiving turkey, without one.

Green Bay however is vulnerable to being ground down by the run so I am happy to go with Smith/Morris here. They don't need another pass option in this one.

[uhuhahah]

Take GB and over....GB 59 - DET 31..firework tomorrow.

[uhuhahah]

Parlay 6. GB + Over + DAL + Over + BAL + Under.... Happy Thanksgiving.

[BiGTonyHAHA]

uhuhahah = john q public

[Mike Hazard]

Excellent analysis billysink. I agree with you on most of your points (some more than the other but heck I have a slightly different approach). So I'm not trying to oppose the ones I feel different about, just to add a few insights.

On GB yards allowed v yards gained. Significant number, more than just the points allowed, but has to adjusted for the defensive TD and return yards they produce on their interceptions. (Also, Bears D could be better than Detroit D if you look at the points they have scored.) Not a significant issue, but Packers D would certainly grade better if the adjustment is made. This doesn't take away the fact that they indeed were awful against TB (and in some other matches as well).

On Detroit defensive front. I cannot really see how KVB and Avril could be overlooked/underrated. They are close to elite pass rushers as you can find. However, as formidable front4 they might have been, Corey Williams, Avril, Suh and KVB are KILLING Lions with their penalties. So your point "if they can stay out of penalties" is a weak one. I don't see how they can.

On a topic that bugs me. Stafford, as you have said, isn't the most consistant QB in the league. Poor decisions, poor vision, hand problem. But, what bugs me the most is that he hasn't seen Dom Capers' style of D. He was injured both times last year, played once in his rook year and was a disaster. He did improve but I'm wondering how will he fare against a D schemes he isn't really used to. What's your take on this?

[billysink]

Excellent analysis billysink. I agree with you on most of your points (some more than the other but heck I have a slightly different approach). So I'm not trying to oppose the ones I feel different about, just to add a few insights.

On GB yards allowed v yards gained. Significant number, more than just the points allowed, but has to adjusted for the defensive TD and return yards they produce on their interceptions. (Also, Bears D could be better than Detroit D if you look at the points they have scored.) Not a significant issue, but Packers D would certainly grade better if the adjustment is made. This doesn't take away the fact that they indeed were awful against TB (and in some other matches as well).

On Detroit defensive front. I cannot really see how KVB and Avril could be overlooked/underrated. They are close to elite pass rushers as you can find. However, as formidable front4 they might have been, Corey Williams, Avril, Suh and KVB are KILLING Lions with their penalties. So your point "if they can stay out of penalties" is a weak one. I don't see how they can.

On a topic that bugs me. Stafford, as you have said, isn't the most consistant QB in the league. Poor decisions, poor vision, hand problem. But, what bugs me the most is that he hasn't seen Dom Capers' style of D. He was injured both times last year, played once in his rook year and was a disaster. He did improve but I'm wondering how will he fare against a D schemes he isn't really used to. What's your take on this?

Good Post

Mike I don't use points scored for or against in my approach so I don't feel the need to consider adjustments. Just my way of doing business. The stats I use are readily available, connect to a T to events on a field and need no interpretation or adjustment. I just plug em in to my sheet and let them do their thing. This is only a filter not a basis for a play.


You make some very valid points. As bad as that Pack D is statistically (and they are poor) there is the caveat that they are very opportunistic in the TO dept. And that certainly counts here with Stafford's new found colorblindness. I am not overly concerned here, if that is what beats me then so be it. I really, really think that the caliber of their opponents so far have skewed those numbers a bit as well. If it is turnovers that beat the Lions tomorrow they will be owned by Detroit more-so than forced by Green Bay. And yes Detroit has been beating itself of late. If they spot Rodgers 17 like they did Carolina they are dead in their own bed.

KVB and Avril have not put up the gaudy individual stats of a Jared Allen or Demarcus Ware. None of the front 4 have. That is because they rotate so many guys in and out of there. I love that about the Lions, they roll 6 guys out there and are always fresh. I will tell you that this is one of the biggest mismatches the Pack will see all year and as mentioned they are terribly going to miss Chad Clifton tomorrow. Newhouse has struggled against weaker and is playing on a bum knee. KVB is probably looking forward to this matchup.

I agree that the young line has been penalty prone. My take is again if they beat themselves they beat me too. I bet that Green Bay takes more than a few false starts tomorrow. I was at a Thanksgiving Day Lions game a few years back even when they were shit. It took me a week to be hear my alarm clock after that. I have never heard anything like it in my life. Rodgers and co. will be on a silent count all game. If they get every one of those right my hat is off to them. I also think there is no way in God's green earth that Calvin Johnson does not draw a few big yardage flags as well.

That brings me to the Caper's angle. I will say that Dom has my respect and has for years. What he does not have is the personnel to stop Detroit. His schemes have always worked better with physical players. A vivid picture in my mind from last week was Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow having their way with the secondary. Big athletic bodies. The Williams guy had not done shit all year until he matched up against Green Bay. They simply struggle with big bodied guys. Woodson at 35 just does not have the foot speed to cover Johnson and that will be Tramon's problem. Safety help will be absolutely necessary against the wideouts.

Stafford has not seen a Capers scheme and the Pack have not seen Stafford. A wash. Film and more film for both sides. I will also say that the coaching staff of the Pack are far superior to that of the Lions.

This is going to leave a lot of room if a back gets past that D-Line and this is what I think will be the key to the game. The Lions will be able to run the ball and control some clock, keep Rodgers off the field.

Turnovers, penalties and Jim Schwartz may beat me but that is a risk I will take. The match up advantages lean to Detroit here.

I am getting 6.5 when I should be getting 4. I will take it.

[billysink]

uhuhahah = john q public

Uhuh got lost and posted in the wrong thread.

We discuss in my threads, all opinions are appreciated whether I agree or not. There has been some real good discussion from a lot of guys here.

Uhuh came up just a little short.

His whole life is probably 4th and inches.

[Pin Fish]

Allow me to make 2 points...

1 The Packers rank 30 in defense statiscally but let me ask you this...how many 4th quarter comebacks were required by Arron Rodgers tgis year...they are way ahead in many games and have teams scoring on a relaxed defense thus making their stats deceptively bad.......

2. How many of you "Sharps" took KC and the points Monday Night.............take the Lions and the points if you like donating to your bookie's retiement fund..........

[paco]

Nice write up Billy.

[Love The Action]

Great work Billy. I agree that Detroit's defense is very underrated in this game. The advanced efficiency stats show that Detroit has a top 5 defense overall and top 3 in the league against the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. GB is in the bottom third of the league in those same categories which illustrates that the gap in defense between these two teams in favor Detroit is wider than the gap in offense which favors GB.

With that said, however, I disagree with your statement that the line should be GB -4 in this game. You are basically saying that GB would only be a -1 favorite on a neutral field and we all know that is not the case. I have Detroit set at +5.5 in this game because I think the Detroit home field advantage is substantial. I would probably put GB at -3 on a neutral field.

Therefore, I don't see there being a ton of value on the side in this game at +6. Although, I agree with many of your points in this game and would be a bit more comfortable at your number of 6.5. If the books ever cross to -7 on GB, however, that would not bode well for your Detroit wager because of the significance of that number. While I don't think we'll get there, I am interested to see where the morning line move takes us. Probably a pass for me on the side.

Good luck

[PAULYPOKER]

Ok and with that logic why not take GB -6.5?

Because I like Detroit to win at +275 better than I like G-bay to cover at -110.........

The risk factor.......

[Mike Hazard]

...What he does not have is the personnel to stop Detroit. His schemes have always worked better with physical players. A vivid picture in my mind from last week was Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow having their way with the secondary. Big athletic bodies. The Williams guy had not done shit all year until he matched up against Green Bay. They simply struggle with big bodied guys. Woodson at 35 just does not have the foot speed to cover Johnson and that will be Tramon's problem. Safety help will be absolutely necessary against the wideouts...

Yeah the game v Bucs was very interesting. Bucs had absolutely no idea what to do until they just repeatedly started throwing to those two. I believe they must have gotten at least 10 catches in third quarter alone (combined). I don't like Freeman nor the Bucs, but they are able to make in game changes on how they attack. Lions, hm. I've seen Bears game where Stafford threw 19 times to Johnson, with 12 incompletions. And moreso in their 5-0 start, they have one money play and the rest of the time their offense struggles. Not saying Packers can easily take away Johnson, they won't, but I still don't like other options. (And I don't count Smith's rushing v Caro as a game adjustment, the Panthers are so poor in that department that the chances are it would have happened by accident anyway).

I agree on Love The Action here. I'd take a TD. But I don't see it will happen.

Either way, I enjoyed reading your posts. Good luck sir.

[superblaaze]

how about what really counts

points per play
Green bay on offense 0.574
Detroit on Offense 0.459
Green bay points allowed per play 0.335
Detroit's points allowed per play 0.336

Plays/Game last 3 games average
Green bay 60.3
Detroit 71

Plays allowed per game last 3 average
Green Bay 63.3
Detroit 66

redzone scoring on offense
Green bay 64.29%
Detroit 56.76%

redzone scoring allowed
Green bay 51.61%
Detroit 41.67%

then you add in the records of previous opponents
Green bay 41-59
Detroit 52-48

Dam it Boys looks like we have us a ball game not going to be a cake walk for either team

[Pride]

this is as close to a coinflip as you will ever find in the nfl as far as spreads are concerned. this game is completely unpredictable.

[House]

A QB with bicycling gloves on his hands?need I say more .... Packers all morning ..

[uhuhahah]

uhuhahah = john q public

[uhuhahah]

Uhuh got lost and posted in the wrong thread.

We discuss in my threads, all opinions are appreciated whether I agree or not. There has been some real good discussion from a lot of guys here.

Uhuh came up just a little short.

His whole life is probably 4th and inches.

You are mean...

[BrownTown]

Green Bay @ Detroit I have been looking for a spot to fade Green Bay and this will be it. I have seen enough of their last 5 games to know that they are not as good as this line indicates. Before I get too deep into what I have gleaned over the last few days of capping let me say that Aaron Rodgers is a great player and there is no disputing that . With that said I don’t think he can win it on his own this week. Reviewing the Pack’s schedule this year shows that they have played the third easiest slate in the league at # 30. I use the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings in my assessments. I do not make any other observation on these SS numbers or attempt to opine on them. Jeff Sagarin’s mathematical angle is a number. It takes all opinion out of the mix. That same number for the Lions is quite a different story. Their SS number is 6, placing them in the top tier of tough schedules this year. No one can argue the caliber of the passing offense for the Pack. This will be its toughest test defensively by far this year. The Lion pass defense is at the top of the league in yards allowed per attempt @ 5.4. Only Pittsburgh is as good as them at limiting the big play. This is one of the loudest places to play In the league and anyone, including Rodgers will not have it easy at Ford. He is facing one of the most active an athletic defensive front 7’s he will see this year. I really like how Nick Fairley compliments Suh now that he is up to speed. Rush ends KVB and Cliff Avril are highly underated in my estimation. If this line can stay out of penalty trouble it will best the Pack front 4 on Thursday. This is the game that the Pack really miss Chad Clifton at LT and you can be sure that will be mentioned during the broadcast on game day. To further emphasis the left side issues Clifton’s replacement Marshall Newhouse has been limited in practice this week with a bad knee. The Lions defense does have an Achilles heel and that is its play against the run. If this game was in Green Bay I would be hesitant to make a play on the Lions for that reason. They have been better in recent weeks and now finally show a YPR allowed of less than 5 at 4.96. Comparable to the Pack’s run D. Because of the noise at Ford and also because I am not overly concerned with Green Bay’s ability to run the ball (3.88 YPR) I am not going to make the Lion’s run defense a real issue here. Conversely I give the Lion’s the advantage running the ball against the Packer D-Line who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground of late. Tampa averaged a whopping 6.1 YPR last week. Several week teams have run the ball at a good clip this year against the Pack but have been forced to abandon the run early as they have fallen behind by multiple possessions. To summarize I think the Lions have an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball here. Matt Stafford is the kind of QB who can make you trash your living room. I almost did this past weekend. He had no clue or was not used to that glove in the first half last week. If he is on the Pack secondary is in trouble. Looking at the numbers I see them giving up 7.4 YPC. That is two full yards more than the Lions secondary. I do not think they can cover Calvin Johnson as the Pack does not match up well at all with big rangy recievers. Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs. There will be no safety help here. I can’t believe I am actually typing this. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. Tampa, Minny, San Diego and St. Louis all produced more offense than Green Bay head to head. They have shown some glaring weaknesses which have been masked by their record and the media hype surrounding Aaron Rodgers MVP season. Again I have nothing bad to say about Rodgers, I think he is the MVP so far. But it is a team game and this team has some weaknesses. In a blind taste test if I gave you a team with a 30th ranked defense compiled against a week schedule against a team with a 9th ranked defense compiled against a much tougher schedule, advantages at the line of scrimmage, a better pass defense and a 6 point head start, who would you play. And I told you this team were on the road in one of the noisiest building in the NFL and playing their 3rd game in 11 days. Who would you take. Now Stafford may decide Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are his favorite receivers; Suh and Fairley may forget this is not MMA. Jim Schwartz may not recognize a good matchup again (I can believe he didn’t run the ball down Carolina’s throat from the opening whistle against a team missing 4 of their top 5 linebackers) and my assessment of the game may be completely wrong. I have to play what I feel is a weak line here both statistically and in my assessment of game situations. Lions +6 for 2 units Lions ML for 1 unit.

Wake me up when this is over. Damn this is long

[BrownTown]

By the way. GB beat Cam Newton (on the road) early in the year before the NFL had enough film on him to put a legit gameplan in and Cam was torching the NFL. Last week Lions should have lost against a fading Cam Newton. GB and Carlona play last week at GB, GB wins by 14+. Pack will roll ... Stafford tosses 2 picks in the first quarter and a fumble, GB turns those into TD's. Easy GB cover here. 38-21

[killawookie]

Aaron Rodgers has had it easy the past few weeks with kick returns and defensive TD's aiding to high scoring games.. time for him to step back up and carry this team which he know how to do best. If the Lions were the same team they were early this year I would agree that taking GB at all in this game is poor capping.. but in simple.. not statistical fashion.. GB are much hotter and more explosive

[Ibanezalk3]

Chances of GB winning today are as good as there being a fly-by during the national anthem at Ford Field.. GO LIONS!!