Green Bay @ Detroit breakdown

[ridims]

this is as close to a coinflip as you will ever find in the nfl as far as spreads are concerned. this game is completely unpredictable.

now thats some funny shit right there

[Serbone]

Green Bay @ Detroit

I have been looking for a spot to fade Green Bay and this will be it. I have seen enough of their last 5 games to know that they are not as good as this line indicates.

Before I get too deep into what I have gleaned over the last few days of capping let me say that Aaron Rodgers is a great player and there is no disputing that . With that said I don’t think he can win it on his own this week.

Reviewing the Pack’s schedule this year shows that they have played the third easiest slate in the league at # 30. I use the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings in my assessments. I do not make any other observation on these SS numbers or attempt to opine on them. Jeff Sagarin’s mathematical angle is a number. It takes all opinion out of the mix. That same number for the Lions is quite a different story. Their SS number is 6, placing them in the top tier of tough schedules this year.

No one can argue the caliber of the passing offense for the Pack. This will be its toughest test defensively by far this year. The Lion pass defense is at the top of the league in yards allowed per attempt @ 5.4. Only Pittsburgh is as good as them at limiting the big play. This is one of the loudest places to play In the league and anyone, including Rodgers will not have it easy at Ford. He is facing one of the most active an athletic defensive front 7’s he will see this year. I really like how Nick Fairley compliments Suh now that he is up to speed. Rush ends KVB and Cliff Avril are highly underated in my estimation. If this line can stay out of penalty trouble it will best the Pack front 4 on Thursday. This is the game that the Pack really miss Chad Clifton at LT and you can be sure that will be mentioned during the broadcast on game day. To further emphasis the left side issues Clifton’s replacement Marshall Newhouse has been limited in practice this week with a bad knee.

The Lions defense does have an Achilles heel and that is its play against the run. If this game was in Green Bay I would be hesitant to make a play on the Lions for that reason. They have been better in recent weeks and now finally show a YPR allowed of less than 5 at 4.96. Comparable to the Pack’s run D. Because of the noise at Ford and also because I am not overly concerned with Green Bay’s ability to run the ball (3.88 YPR) I am not going to make the Lion’s run defense a real issue here.

Conversely I give the Lion’s the advantage running the ball against the Packer D-Line who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground of late. Tampa averaged a whopping 6.1 YPR last week. Several week teams have run the ball at a good clip this year against the Pack but have been forced to abandon the run early as they have fallen behind by multiple possessions. To summarize I think the Lions have an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball here.

Matt Stafford is the kind of QB who can make you trash your living room. I almost did this past weekend. He had no clue or was not used to that glove in the first half last week. If he is on the Pack secondary is in trouble. Looking at the numbers I see them giving up 7.4 YPC. That is two full yards more than the Lions secondary. I do not think they can cover Calvin Johnson as the Pack does not match up well at all with big rangy recievers. Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs. There will be no safety help here.

I can’t believe I am actually typing this. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. Tampa, Minny, San Diego and St. Louis all produced more offense than Green Bay head to head. They have shown some glaring weaknesses which have been masked by their record and the media hype surrounding Aaron Rodgers MVP season. Again I have nothing bad to say about Rodgers, I think he is the MVP so far. But it is a team game and this team has some weaknesses.

In a blind taste test if I gave you a team with a 30th ranked defense compiled against a week schedule against a team with a 9th ranked defense compiled against a much tougher schedule, advantages at the line of scrimmage, a better pass defense and a 6 point head start, who would you play. And I told you this team were on the road in one of the noisiest building in the NFL and playing their 3rd game in 11 days.

Who would you take.

Now Stafford may decide Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are his favorite receivers; Suh and Fairley may forget this is not MMA. Jim Schwartz may not recognize a good matchup again (I can believe he didn’t run the ball down Carolina’s throat from the opening whistle against a team missing 4 of their top 5 linebackers) and my assessment of the game may be completely wrong.

I have to play what I feel is a weak line here both statistically and in my assessment of game situations.

Lions +6 for 2 units
Lions ML for 1 unit.

Great post.
BECAUSE it includes a good write up with pertainent information.
Most posters here are a joke, they just lob out with no backup info. WTF?
I agree, if you see some of my random posts attached to other threads.
Detroit + 6, BIG.

[Pride]

How could anyone ever get a read on this game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ridims]

Great post.
BECAUSE it includes a good write up with pertainent information.
Most posters here are a joke, they just lob out with no backup info. WTF?
I agree, if you see some of my random posts attached to other threads.
Detroit + 6, BIG.

jebo te konj

nice pick

[Pride]

this game is uncappable!!!!!! WHAT SHOULD I DO I NEED A BIG HIT HERE. OVER LOOKS GOOD RIGHT?

im putting all in for over

[Matt1144]

I guess "lol gtfo " was the proper response. I told you GB would win. Piss off you twat

[Stevedore]

Great post.
BECAUSE it includes a good write up with pertainent information.
Most posters here are a joke, they just lob out with no backup info. WTF?
I agree, if you see some of my random posts attached to other threads.
Detroit + 6, BIG.

Detroit BIG, how'd that turn out for you?

[Stevedore]

Billy, you forgot to cap penalties. DETROIT IS THE DUMBEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE!!!

[freakydave]

Tough loss Billy get em next time

[meader99]

If yards won football games the Lions would have blown em out in the first half. Packer "D" gets a bad rap because they give up yards, but stiffen up and don't allow points when the other team gets in scoring range. Could have been a lot worse to had Tramon not dropped the easy pick 6.

[billysink]

I guess "lol gtfo " was the proper response. I told you GB would win. Piss off you twat

No that still is not the proper response.

And this response shows pretty much what you are all about.

Means little to me, just another no capping pissant who waits till the end of the game to beat his skinny ribs when he wins.

And offers nothing before.


I posted the information I thought was applicable to this tilt. A lot of it was.

I made a play. I lost.

I do almost 40% of the time kid. For years and years.

I am good with that. I am also OK with all the two bit fuks like you who offer less than nothing to the handicapping community and come in after a game to tell me that I was wrong. If that makes you feel like somebody I am glad to be a part of it. You probably don't have too many opportunities to shine.



Many of you who said the Lions would beat themselves through penalties and poor QB play were bang on. I handicapped that the Lions could rush the ball and win the line of scrimmage. I handicapped the game based on personnel available. They were shorthanded quickly and were exploited to those weaknesses. Not a lot I can do about that. I was bang on in a lot of my approach but way wrong on the variables.


Even die hard Pack backers saw today how they can be exploited. Detroit ran the ball at will. Green Bay did not beat them. They beat themselves.

I will continue to try and find value when I can and post accordingly.
Back with another play when I find one.

Thanks to all who contributed to this thead.



Good Luck All.

[billysink]

Billy, you forgot to cap penalties. DETROIT IS THE DUMBEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE!!!

Duely noted Steve. You are right about them being dumb.

I saw Suh's interview after the game. He was trying to sugar coat his actions and make them justifiable.

That kid is nothing but a punk now in my eyes. Get up on the mike say you were wrong, apologize and move on.

That booshi he gave is punk.

Punks don't win.

I will note that moving forward.

[billysink]

Again thanks to all that contributed here and congrats to Packer Backers and under players.


See you soon and good luck this weekend!!!

[meader99]

Good luck with the future plays. I look forward to reading your analysis. Obviously I'm glad you lost this particular game.

[Stevedore]

No that still is not the proper response.

And this response shows pretty much what you are all about.

Means little to me, just another no capping pissant who waits till the end of the game to beat his skinny ribs when he wins.

And offers nothing before.


I posted the information I thought was applicable to this tilt. A lot of it was.

I made a play. I lost.

I do almost 40% of the time kid. For years and years.

I am good with that. I am also OK with all the two bit fuks like you who offer less than nothing to the handicapping community and come in after a game to tell me that I was wrong. If that makes you feel like somebody I am glad to be a part of it. You probably don't have too many opportunities to shine.



Many of you who said the Lions would beat themselves through penalties and poor QB play were bang on. I handicapped that the Lions could rush the ball and win the line of scrimmage. I handicapped the game based on personnel available. They were shorthanded quickly and were exploited to those weaknesses. Not a lot I can do about that. I was bang on in a lot of my approach but way wrong on the variables.


Even die hard Pack backers saw today how they can be exploited. Detroit ran the ball at will. Green Bay did not beat them. They beat themselves.

I will continue to try and find value when I can and post accordingly.
Back with another play when I find one.

Thanks to all who contributed to this thead.



Good Luck All.

I'm really surprised by this take, really? GB did what they had to do; they were clearly the more talented team. Detroit definitely couldn't get out of their own way, but to Say GB didn't win this game is way off. As for injuries, GB lost both inside starting linebackers Hawk and Bishop and their all pro RG Josh Sitton and played without them the whole 2nd half.

[Stevedore]

Good luck with the future plays. I look forward to reading your analysis. Obviously I'm glad you lost this particular game.

This

[mp5070]

GB -6...Thank me Later....

[mp5070]

Great post. BECAUSE it includes a good write up with pertainent information. Most posters here are a joke, they just lob out with no backup info. WTF? I agree, if you see some of my random posts attached to other threads. Detroit + 6, BIG.

....Make sure you do your own little research

[dontbuythehook]

Green Bay @ Detroit

I have been looking for a spot to fade Green Bay and this will be it. I have seen enough of their last 5 games to know that they are not as good as this line indicates.

Before I get too deep into what I have gleaned over the last few days of capping let me say that Aaron Rodgers is a great player and there is no disputing that . With that said I don’t think he can win it on his own this week.

Reviewing the Pack’s schedule this year shows that they have played the third easiest slate in the league at # 30. I use the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings in my assessments. I do not make any other observation on these SS numbers or attempt to opine on them. Jeff Sagarin’s mathematical angle is a number. It takes all opinion out of the mix. That same number for the Lions is quite a different story. Their SS number is 6, placing them in the top tier of tough schedules this year.

No one can argue the caliber of the passing offense for the Pack. This will be its toughest test defensively by far this year. The Lion pass defense is at the top of the league in yards allowed per attempt @ 5.4. Only Pittsburgh is as good as them at limiting the big play. This is one of the loudest places to play In the league and anyone, including Rodgers will not have it easy at Ford. He is facing one of the most active an athletic defensive front 7’s he will see this year. I really like how Nick Fairley compliments Suh now that he is up to speed. Rush ends KVB and Cliff Avril are highly underated in my estimation. If this line can stay out of penalty trouble it will best the Pack front 4 on Thursday. This is the game that the Pack really miss Chad Clifton at LT and you can be sure that will be mentioned during the broadcast on game day. To further emphasis the left side issues Clifton’s replacement Marshall Newhouse has been limited in practice this week with a bad knee.

The Lions defense does have an Achilles heel and that is its play against the run. If this game was in Green Bay I would be hesitant to make a play on the Lions for that reason. They have been better in recent weeks and now finally show a YPR allowed of less than 5 at 4.96. Comparable to the Pack’s run D. Because of the noise at Ford and also because I am not overly concerned with Green Bay’s ability to run the ball (3.88 YPR) I am not going to make the Lion’s run defense a real issue here.

Conversely I give the Lion’s the advantage running the ball against the Packer D-Line who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground of late. Tampa averaged a whopping 6.1 YPR last week. Several week teams have run the ball at a good clip this year against the Pack but have been forced to abandon the run early as they have fallen behind by multiple possessions. To summarize I think the Lions have an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball here.

Matt Stafford is the kind of QB who can make you trash your living room. I almost did this past weekend. He had no clue or was not used to that glove in the first half last week. If he is on the Pack secondary is in trouble. Looking at the numbers I see them giving up 7.4 YPC. That is two full yards more than the Lions secondary. I do not think they can cover Calvin Johnson as the Pack does not match up well at all with big rangy recievers. Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs. There will be no safety help here.

I can’t believe I am actually typing this. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. Tampa, Minny, San Diego and St. Louis all produced more offense than Green Bay head to head. They have shown some glaring weaknesses which have been masked by their record and the media hype surrounding Aaron Rodgers MVP season. Again I have nothing bad to say about Rodgers, I think he is the MVP so far. But it is a team game and this team has some weaknesses.

In a blind taste test if I gave you a team with a 30th ranked defense compiled against a week schedule against a team with a 9th ranked defense compiled against a much tougher schedule, advantages at the line of scrimmage, a better pass defense and a 6 point head start, who would you play. And I told you this team were on the road in one of the noisiest building in the NFL and playing their 3rd game in 11 days.

Who would you take.

Now Stafford may decide Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are his favorite receivers; Suh and Fairley may forget this is not MMA. Jim Schwartz may not recognize a good matchup again (I can believe he didn’t run the ball down Carolina’s throat from the opening whistle against a team missing 4 of their top 5 linebackers) and my assessment of the game may be completely wrong.

I have to play what I feel is a weak line here both statistically and in my assessment of game situations.

Lions +6 for 2 units
Lions ML for 1 unit.

SBR Record: 0-3, (-3.2 units)

[Tower]

ouch

[dontbuythehook]

[billysink]

This looks like 4-1 with more information from me than you have posted in your whole forum career. In one thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1326215-dallas-new-england-new-orleans-tampa-cleveland-oakland.html

This one has a ton of info and is 2-0-1

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1346887-week-7-a.html

1-0 in here

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1409521-thanksgiving-plays-w-write-ups.html

And countless threads of good information for the community.


Looks like about 7-3-1 with Arizona +3 pending.

But who cares about records hey Hooker. If mine gets shitty I will just post a lock and say I had the other side.


Fukkin dunce.

You couldn't hold my shit pail as a handicapper. I have forgotten more about football than you ever knew. Anyone who reads the attached threads and then yours would say the same.

Nice Try asshole.

[billysink]

[dontbuythehook]

This looks like 4-1 with more information from me than you have posted in your whole forum career. In one thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1326215-dallas-new-england-new-orleans-tampa-cleveland-oakland.html

This one has a ton of info and is 2-0-1

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1346887-week-7-a.html

1-0 in here

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1409521-thanksgiving-plays-w-write-ups.html

And countless threads of good information for the community.


Looks like about 7-4-1 with Arizona +3 pending.

But who cares about records hey Hooker. If mine gets shitty I will just post a lock and say I had the other side.


Fukkin dunce.

You couldn't hold my shit pail as a handicapper. I have forgotten more about football than you ever knew. Anyone who reads the attached threads and then yours would say the same.

Nice Try asshole.

Who's under whose skin now, dunce?

[dontbuythehook]

guy writes 3 pages about a game and gets blown out, yet he's a genius capper from covers.com Never heard of scammers.com have you? =)

[billysink]

Who's under whose skin now, dunce?

Nice of you to post your picture Opie.

Under my skin??

That will be the day. I got all night to rub your nose in my shit kid.

7-3-1

With detailed writeups

Show me a link to your most informative post.

**** you can't even string together two sentences. And the smileys are cute.

[dontbuythehook]

you are trying way too hard billyboy, but I'll leave you one more before I head out.

Lions ML

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

That is all.

-dontbuythehook

[billysink]

Yeh this is hard work. Sitting in front of my 65 sipping a brandy watching my Red Wings kick Nashvilles ass worse than I am kicking yours.

Mrs. BillySink is laughing her ass off at you. You keep coming back for more. I bet her I could keep you here wound up and drooling on your own lame ass until at least the end of the game.

I win that one and I will be 8-3-1 with Arizona pending. Keep firing junior!!!!!


PS She likes you selection of smiley's you post to try and make your point. She is guessing you are about 13, retarded or a fa&&ot

Or all of the above. I told her that was none of her business.

Keep firing kid I got a bet to win here.






This should be good.