Green Bay @ Detroit
I have been looking for a spot to fade Green Bay and this will be it. I have seen enough of their last 5 games to know that they are not as good as this line indicates.
Before I get too deep into what I have gleaned over the last few days of capping let me say that Aaron Rodgers is a great player and there is no disputing that . With that said I don’t think he can win it on his own this week.
Reviewing the Pack’s schedule this year shows that they have played the third easiest slate in the league at # 30. I use the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings in my assessments. I do not make any other observation on these SS numbers or attempt to opine on them. Jeff Sagarin’s mathematical angle is a number. It takes all opinion out of the mix. That same number for the Lions is quite a different story. Their SS number is 6, placing them in the top tier of tough schedules this year.
No one can argue the caliber of the passing offense for the Pack. This will be its toughest test defensively by far this year. The Lion pass defense is at the top of the league in yards allowed per attempt @ 5.4. Only Pittsburgh is as good as them at limiting the big play. This is one of the loudest places to play In the league and anyone, including Rodgers will not have it easy at Ford. He is facing one of the most active an athletic defensive front 7’s he will see this year. I really like how Nick Fairley compliments Suh now that he is up to speed. Rush ends KVB and Cliff Avril are highly underated in my estimation. If this line can stay out of penalty trouble it will best the Pack front 4 on Thursday. This is the game that the Pack really miss Chad Clifton at LT and you can be sure that will be mentioned during the broadcast on game day. To further emphasis the left side issues Clifton’s replacement Marshall Newhouse has been limited in practice this week with a bad knee.
The Lions defense does have an Achilles heel and that is its play against the run. If this game was in Green Bay I would be hesitant to make a play on the Lions for that reason. They have been better in recent weeks and now finally show a YPR allowed of less than 5 at 4.96. Comparable to the Pack’s run D. Because of the noise at Ford and also because I am not overly concerned with Green Bay’s ability to run the ball (3.88 YPR) I am not going to make the Lion’s run defense a real issue here.
Conversely I give the Lion’s the advantage running the ball against the Packer D-Line who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground of late. Tampa averaged a whopping 6.1 YPR last week. Several week teams have run the ball at a good clip this year against the Pack but have been forced to abandon the run early as they have fallen behind by multiple possessions. To summarize I think the Lions have an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball here.
Matt Stafford is the kind of QB who can make you trash your living room. I almost did this past weekend. He had no clue or was not used to that glove in the first half last week. If he is on the Pack secondary is in trouble. Looking at the numbers I see them giving up 7.4 YPC. That is two full yards more than the Lions secondary. I do not think they can cover Calvin Johnson as the Pack does not match up well at all with big rangy recievers. Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs. There will be no safety help here.
I can’t believe I am actually typing this. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. Tampa, Minny, San Diego and St. Louis all produced more offense than Green Bay head to head. They have shown some glaring weaknesses which have been masked by their record and the media hype surrounding Aaron Rodgers MVP season. Again I have nothing bad to say about Rodgers, I think he is the MVP so far. But it is a team game and this team has some weaknesses.
In a blind taste test if I gave you a team with a 30th ranked defense compiled against a week schedule against a team with a 9th ranked defense compiled against a much tougher schedule, advantages at the line of scrimmage, a better pass defense and a 6 point head start, who would you play. And I told you this team were on the road in one of the noisiest building in the NFL and playing their 3rd game in 11 days.
Who would you take.
Now Stafford may decide Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are his favorite receivers; Suh and Fairley may forget this is not MMA. Jim Schwartz may not recognize a good matchup again (I can believe he didn’t run the ball down Carolina’s throat from the opening whistle against a team missing 4 of their top 5 linebackers) and my assessment of the game may be completely wrong.
I have to play what I feel is a weak line here both statistically and in my assessment of game situations.
Lions +6 for 2 units
Lions ML for 1 unit.
I have been looking for a spot to fade Green Bay and this will be it. I have seen enough of their last 5 games to know that they are not as good as this line indicates.
Before I get too deep into what I have gleaned over the last few days of capping let me say that Aaron Rodgers is a great player and there is no disputing that . With that said I don’t think he can win it on his own this week.
Reviewing the Pack’s schedule this year shows that they have played the third easiest slate in the league at # 30. I use the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings in my assessments. I do not make any other observation on these SS numbers or attempt to opine on them. Jeff Sagarin’s mathematical angle is a number. It takes all opinion out of the mix. That same number for the Lions is quite a different story. Their SS number is 6, placing them in the top tier of tough schedules this year.
No one can argue the caliber of the passing offense for the Pack. This will be its toughest test defensively by far this year. The Lion pass defense is at the top of the league in yards allowed per attempt @ 5.4. Only Pittsburgh is as good as them at limiting the big play. This is one of the loudest places to play In the league and anyone, including Rodgers will not have it easy at Ford. He is facing one of the most active an athletic defensive front 7’s he will see this year. I really like how Nick Fairley compliments Suh now that he is up to speed. Rush ends KVB and Cliff Avril are highly underated in my estimation. If this line can stay out of penalty trouble it will best the Pack front 4 on Thursday. This is the game that the Pack really miss Chad Clifton at LT and you can be sure that will be mentioned during the broadcast on game day. To further emphasis the left side issues Clifton’s replacement Marshall Newhouse has been limited in practice this week with a bad knee.
The Lions defense does have an Achilles heel and that is its play against the run. If this game was in Green Bay I would be hesitant to make a play on the Lions for that reason. They have been better in recent weeks and now finally show a YPR allowed of less than 5 at 4.96. Comparable to the Pack’s run D. Because of the noise at Ford and also because I am not overly concerned with Green Bay’s ability to run the ball (3.88 YPR) I am not going to make the Lion’s run defense a real issue here.
Conversely I give the Lion’s the advantage running the ball against the Packer D-Line who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground of late. Tampa averaged a whopping 6.1 YPR last week. Several week teams have run the ball at a good clip this year against the Pack but have been forced to abandon the run early as they have fallen behind by multiple possessions. To summarize I think the Lions have an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball here.
Matt Stafford is the kind of QB who can make you trash your living room. I almost did this past weekend. He had no clue or was not used to that glove in the first half last week. If he is on the Pack secondary is in trouble. Looking at the numbers I see them giving up 7.4 YPC. That is two full yards more than the Lions secondary. I do not think they can cover Calvin Johnson as the Pack does not match up well at all with big rangy recievers. Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs. There will be no safety help here.
I can’t believe I am actually typing this. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. Tampa, Minny, San Diego and St. Louis all produced more offense than Green Bay head to head. They have shown some glaring weaknesses which have been masked by their record and the media hype surrounding Aaron Rodgers MVP season. Again I have nothing bad to say about Rodgers, I think he is the MVP so far. But it is a team game and this team has some weaknesses.
In a blind taste test if I gave you a team with a 30th ranked defense compiled against a week schedule against a team with a 9th ranked defense compiled against a much tougher schedule, advantages at the line of scrimmage, a better pass defense and a 6 point head start, who would you play. And I told you this team were on the road in one of the noisiest building in the NFL and playing their 3rd game in 11 days.
Who would you take.
Now Stafford may decide Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are his favorite receivers; Suh and Fairley may forget this is not MMA. Jim Schwartz may not recognize a good matchup again (I can believe he didn’t run the ball down Carolina’s throat from the opening whistle against a team missing 4 of their top 5 linebackers) and my assessment of the game may be completely wrong.
I have to play what I feel is a weak line here both statistically and in my assessment of game situations.
Lions +6 for 2 units
Lions ML for 1 unit.
This is a terrific matchup and overlooking or discounting the psychological side of this game is a mistake IMO; stats are obviously important but is there a clear advantage for Detroit here? GB's defensive stats against the pass are somewhat skewed as they've been in front double digits for most of the season and are teams going to run the ball down 14+ points? As always in big games, trunovers and mistakes are the key. This Lions team although very talented, is also very young and is prone to turnovers and is also one of the dumbest teams in the league when it comes to penalties. Detroit is ranked 26 in the league in penalty yardage and GB is ranked 1st.
