Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

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  • poochiecollins
    SBR MVP
    • 01-27-09
    • 1782

    #71
    Afternoon and evening picks gimmie gimmie.
    Comment
    • Capybara
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-17-08
      • 11803

      #72
      Okay, rest of today's picks:

      Houston +7
      Cleveland +7
      New England -6.5
      New Orleans -6
      Minnesota +3

      Adding a best bet on Browns/Raiders over 44.5

      Just those two best bets so far this week... not a week I'm feeling too confident. Though I may do a couple tomorrow night. Maybe.
      Comment
      • poochiecollins
        SBR MVP
        • 01-27-09
        • 1782

        #73
        Good thing I didn't get those early plays in
        Comment
        • Capybara
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-17-08
          • 11803

          #74
          Adding a best bet on Ravens/Texans over 43.5.
          Comment
          • Tigers1230
            SBR MVP
            • 12-04-07
            • 1568

            #75
            I haven't followed this thread yet. What's your record so far>? I kind of like the Cowboys to stay close and keep up now that they have Austin back. I am thinking O55 with this one being a shootout.

            I like the Saints but I have it at 7. Blount is out and they will be trying to keep up with Brees in the air.
            Comment
            • Capybara
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-17-08
              • 11803

              #76
              Originally posted by poochiecollins
              Good thing I didn't get those early plays in
              Hey, I'm 2-2 so far with the remaining games to be determined! Got a shot to go over .500 still... maybe. Anyway, bottom line is the end-of-the-week result. And if I take a hit this week, I was due and will bounce back!
              Comment
              • Capybara
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-17-08
                • 11803

                #77
                Originally posted by Tigers1230
                I haven't followed this thread yet. What's your record so far>? I kind of like the Cowboys to stay close and keep up now that they have Austin back. I am thinking O55 with this one being a shootout.
                Record is earlier in the thread. 44-31-2 so far. I'm unsure on this one. Do like the over though. Had to go with the Pats, just too good at home and Brady will be ready for Rob Ryan's defense this time around (after a bad loss to his Browns last year). On the opposite, I can see the 'Boys getting their points for sure.
                Comment
                • poochiecollins
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-27-09
                  • 1782

                  #78
                  -1 Ticket #: 1024176
                  Oct 16 04:05 PM

                  NFL
                  STRAIGHT BET
                  [217] TOTAL o45-110
                  (CLEVELAND vrs OAKLAND)

                  333.00 / 302.73

                  -333.00
                  LOSE
                  LOSE
                  10/16/2011 03:57 PM
                  Internet / -1 Ticket #: 1024177
                  Oct 16 04:05 PM

                  NFL
                  STRAIGHT BET
                  [217] CLEVELAND +250

                  333.00 / 832.50

                  -333.00
                  LOSE
                  LOSE
                  10/16/2011 03:57 PM
                  Internet / -1 Ticket #: 1024178
                  Oct 16 04:15 PM

                  NFL
                  STRAIGHT BET
                  [220] NEW ENGLAND -6½-110

                  333.00 / 302.73

                  -333.00
                  LOSE
                  LOSE
                  10/16/2011 03:57 PM
                  Internet / -1 Ticket #: 1024179
                  Oct 16 04:15 PM

                  NFL
                  STRAIGHT BET
                  [221] NEW ORLEANS -6½-110

                  333.00 / 302.73

                  -333.00
                  LOSE
                  LOSE
                  10/16/2011 03:57 PM

                  Comment
                  • blackbeSSt
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-06-08
                    • 9398

                    #79
                    damn capy. 2-9-2 so far if im seeing it right?
                    Comment
                    • Capybara
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-17-08
                      • 11803

                      #80
                      Originally posted by blackbeSSt
                      damn capy. 2-9-2 so far if im seeing it right?
                      Yup, BURIED.

                      I guess karma's a bitch -- should have kept my trap shut. I may even have capped slightly differently since more people were looking on, who knows... I know that I did go against my initial gut on a couple of plays, Philly for certain, where I was trying to be cute and overthought.

                      Oh well, I'll take my lumps like a man and keep on picking. I ain't going anywhere, it's a marathon and I expect to have a strong percentage when it's all said and done.

                      Prefusely sorry to any who tailed. (Poochie! )
                      Comment
                      • Capybara
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-17-08
                        • 11803

                        #81
                        Originally posted by blackbeSSt
                        damn capy. 2-9-2 so far if im seeing it right?
                        Wait a sec, that's wrong, there were only 12 games today, it's 2-8-2. You don't have to give me a loss for tomorrow just yet!
                        Comment
                        • blackbeSSt
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-06-08
                          • 9398

                          #82
                          Originally posted by Capybara

                          Green Bay -14

                          Pittsburgh -12.5

                          Washington +3
                          Detroit -5
                          Carolina +3.5

                          Cincinnati -5

                          Buffalo +3
                          Originally posted by Capybara
                          Houston +7
                          Cleveland +7
                          New England -6.5
                          New Orleans -6

                          Minnesota +3

                          Adding a best bet on Browns/Raiders over 44.5
                          Originally posted by Capybara
                          Adding a best bet on Ravens/Texans over 43.5.
                          nah, it WAS 2-9-2 before minny. now its 2-10-2
                          Comment
                          • Capybara
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-17-08
                            • 11803

                            #83
                            No, the main record I've been keeping track if is Every Game ATS, and THAT was 2-8-2. Yes, I did three best bets, consisting of one ATS and two overs that (just) missed, which went 0-3.

                            Geez, bro, you don't have to rub it in! Anyway, I really enjoyed having my worst weekend EVER with the added attention on me. Good times. You guys have no idea how much that typifies my life! :-/ But as I said above, karma sure is a bitch, so between that and being due, it was bound to happen. I ain't goin' away though, I will bounce back.
                            Comment
                            • klrqn
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 12-04-10
                              • 257

                              #84
                              haha we're all bound to have bad weeks, nothing new just keep your head on straight and onto the next one! good luck with the rest of the season!
                              Comment
                              • Capybara
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-17-08
                                • 11803

                                #85
                                Originally posted by klrqn
                                haha we're all bound to have bad weeks, nothing new just keep your head on straight and onto the next one! good luck with the rest of the season!
                                Thanks, KL!

                                Tonight's play: Jets -7. Yeah, Miami's coming off the bye and there was some RLM for them, but how do you trust Matt Moore against a reeling Jets team that's finally back home? I say they play inspired tonight, and I'm not sure that the 'Fins haven't thrown in the towel. Sparano on his way out soon.

                                Tempted to best bet the Jets or under 42, but nah, I'll take my 0-3 hit, not gonna chase!
                                Comment
                                • shocktopme
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-15-10
                                  • 940

                                  #86
                                  .

                                  Capy ...Can you PM me an early ATS line sheet...Some great early lines!!!!I would gladly appreciate....Thanx
                                  Comment
                                  • Capybara
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 08-17-08
                                    • 11803

                                    #87
                                    Going into Week 7, the thread record for Every Game ATS stands at 47-39-4 after the damaging 3-8-2 Week 6. *And the Best Bet record fell to 16-16-1 with the 0-for-3. *Hoping for a nice bounce-back here in Week 7.

                                    My early plays:

                                    Chicago -1
                                    Carolina -1
                                    San Diego +1.5
                                    Cleveland -2.5
                                    Tennessee -3
                                    Miami +2
                                    Detroit -4
                                    Comment
                                    • shocktopme
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-15-10
                                      • 940

                                      #88
                                      .

                                      Good deal......You got them in early....be waiting for your late game picks.....Good Luck
                                      Comment
                                      • poochiecollins
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-27-09
                                        • 1782

                                        #89
                                        Capybara, thanks for the private apology, even though I didn't ask for it, and the general humility. Could you elaborate on your performance in past seasons? You posted a little bit about it on page one. Also, could you post all the late games at the same time? There's no reason to put off the Sunday and Monday night games unless one were to chase. Also, it's easier for us who don't like to check a thread four times. Thanks. I'm still on the Capybara train XD
                                        Comment
                                        • poochiecollins
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-27-09
                                          • 1782

                                          #90
                                          Picks!
                                          Comment
                                          • Capybara
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-17-08
                                            • 11803

                                            #91
                                            Rest of the picks:

                                            KC +4
                                            Arizona +4
                                            Dallas -13.5
                                            Green Bay -9.5
                                            Indy +14
                                            Baltimore -9
                                            Comment
                                            • Capybara
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-17-08
                                              • 11803

                                              #92
                                              Best-betting Baltimore tonight, -9.5. Not super-confident, since the last couple of weeks have made me gun-shy, but I have to play this thing -- the talent disparity is just too freakin' huge right now between these two teams. I can see the Jags hanging in this thing for a while, but in the end it's gotta be Baltimore. Ravens actually getting healthier too. I need this one.
                                              Comment
                                              • GoggsViggs
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-05-10
                                                • 1884

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by Capybara
                                                Best-betting Baltimore tonight, -9.5. Not super-confident, since the last couple of weeks have made me gun-shy, but I have to play this thing -- the talent disparity is just too freakin' huge right now between these two teams. I can see the Jags hanging in this thing for a while, but in the end it's gotta be Baltimore. Ravens actually getting healthier too. I need this one.
                                                Thats a nice record bro. Keep up the good work. I'm on ravens big too tonight. Lets get this.
                                                Comment
                                                • Capybara
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                  • 11803

                                                  #94
                                                  2H Baltimore -7. Pissed off and chasing, totally admit it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Capybara
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-17-08
                                                    • 11803

                                                    #95
                                                    I give up.

                                                    Comment
                                                    • fishmonger
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-31-08
                                                      • 1492

                                                      #96
                                                      Dam capy. You getting pounded.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • poochiecollins
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-27-09
                                                        • 1782

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by Capybara
                                                        I give up.
                                                        Lol, hey no quittin'! You're about 50% on every selection, right? I asked about your handicapping history that you briefly spoke of, which is apparently good?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • rsktkr
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 10-09-10
                                                          • 100

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by Capybara
                                                          I give up.

                                                          Hey Cappy,

                                                          Everyone has and had bad weekends (especially this past weekend). Doesn't mean you just quit. At least I hope not! You just have to work a little harder. Keep on keepin' on! Hope I see ya postin' sometime this weekend. BOL to you!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Capybara
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-17-08
                                                            • 11803

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by poochiecollins
                                                            Lol, hey no quittin'! You're about 50% on every selection, right? I asked about your handicapping history that you briefly spoke of, which is apparently good?
                                                            Originally posted by rsktkr
                                                            Hey Cappy,

                                                            Everyone has and had bad weekends (especially this past weekend). Doesn't mean you just quit. At least I hope not! You just have to work a little harder. Keep on keepin' on! Hope I see ya postin' sometime this weekend. BOL to you!
                                                            Thanks, Boys! I wasn't really "giving up," I was just being dramatic... but I must say it is AWESOME to get supportive posts! You guys warm my heart!

                                                            Okay, to the unfortunate business of tallying up: Fukkin' 5-8 weekend (still can't even believe I lost with Miami!) brings the Every Game ATS totals down to 52-47-4. Re: best bets, I just had the Baltimore one, and need to include the drunken 2H Baltimore chase bet , so the 0-2 there drops the official plays portion into the red at 16-18-1. :-(

                                                            Pooch, to answer re: my handicapping history, yes I told you some on page 1 if I recall... Last year is documented in a thread (and the results are in this thread title!). Prior to last year, there's nothing more than assorted posts as far as SBR goes... but as I said, I've been doing a pool picking every game against the spread for about 12 or 13 years now. It consistently has between 150 and 200 folks (this year it's 197). There are weekly and season winners for the top 5 (MNF score as tiebreaker). I won the whole thing TWICE, finished in the top 10 two other times, and have consistently won back my entry money plus more by placing in the weekly or season money. In fact, I won Week 5 already this season (placing first overall, that is) by going 11-2. (It was 10-3 in this thread, because he uses different lines.) You obviously don't have to believe anything I say about non-SBR-documented handicapping, but I'm not lying or anything, I've been doing very well for like a 10- to 15-year period.

                                                            Okay, gonna get my nose to the grindstone and be back soon!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • NHL_freak
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 10-26-11
                                                              • 16

                                                              #100
                                                              Anything better than 50% in NFL ATS is good :P
                                                              Comment
                                                              • poochiecollins
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-27-09
                                                                • 1782

                                                                #101
                                                                It's okay, Cappy. I believe in you.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Capybara
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                                  • 11803

                                                                  #102
                                                                  One play I like and am already on for Week 8:

                                                                  New England -2.5

                                                                  As good as the Steelers are, their defense is poorly designed to stop what the Pats do. Brady has owned them. And despite that, I don't think Lebeau and Tomlin are likely to change what they do very much. Maybe they blitz a little more, but I don't see that working anyway. Yes, the Pats D has mostly sucked, but their D-line is getting healthier and they should be able to rotate enough guys in to disrupt Ben a little and play okay... And even though the bye week hasn't been helping teams much this season, this is Belichick, it helps the Pats.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • poochiecollins
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-27-09
                                                                    • 1782

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Cappy, how many losing seasons have you had? How closely could you estimate your overall win percentage? Have your best bets and every-play bets generally performed equally?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Capybara
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                                      • 11803

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by poochiecollins
                                                                      Cappy, how many losing seasons have you had? How closely could you estimate your overall win percentage? Have your best bets and every-play bets generally performed equally?
                                                                      Pooch, I appreciate the interest, I do, but how many questions are u gonna ask me? I already went into as much detail as I could twice in this thread. I haven't kept any extensive records, there's just what's documented here for this year and last, and then my recollection regarding my non-SBR action. Once again, I've performed well above .500 in the every-game department; with regard to best bets, I made 20 units last season and have made $$ in the past as well, so I am a plus bettor, but that is not as high a percentage as the overall every-game numbers.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • jonathon1995
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                                        • 245

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by NHL_freak
                                                                        Anything better than 50% in NFL ATS is good :P

                                                                        Its takes 60% to break even.
                                                                        Comment
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