2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

**John Ryan** · 11-21-11, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by ghislaine

You really do know Your stuff John, really enjoy reading Your write ups on the games. I learn so much !!
Waiting for Your next picks !!

Thanks and always feel free to provide your thoughts on any games/plays etc. It has been the exchange of constructive, thought provoking ideas that has made this thread so enjoyable/ Thanks again.

**rockhardfister** · 11-21-11, 04:50 PM

Literally every degenerate gambler I know who is down money tonight is investing in the NE Patriots tonight. There is no way all these folks get even. Im all Tyler Palko tonight.

**august_** · 11-21-11, 04:57 PM

something for tonight? i was sleeping yesterday when you release your pick!

**shift_knob** · 11-21-11, 05:29 PM

What's your play tonight John?

**thortada** · 11-21-11, 05:47 PM

he's leaning patriots but no official play. saw his insights on the sbrTV for MNF

**tommyminh** · 11-21-11, 05:51 PM

I dont think he sill leand of ne cause he know better that the pub will all down with ne they think ne cover the spread and kc rookie qb not that bad on ne injurie side ne alots.

**PhillyeagleIrish** · 11-21-11, 05:58 PM

Yes I can almost guarantee it will be a no play or KC, definitely not the Patriots

**tommyminh** · 11-21-11, 06:14 PM

I never saw that ne had give so much pts when thier team had so many injuries, the hight I saw was 9 1/2 but they lose, and the und/ove so far I saw was 2 game where o/u of 47 and 47 1/2 and the game came out to be over and from 51 and above it came out to be under. Tonight I ma leaning on
Kc parley ove, and kc teaser ove.

**blankoblanco** · 11-21-11, 06:46 PM

my sites wouldnt let me parlay kc and the over, presumably because theyre too big of dogs. i bet them separately though

**PickMeAwinner** · 11-21-11, 06:47 PM

My gut tells me UNDER would be the play. Its not a statement game for the Pats, with KC's Cassell out of the equation I think KC may resort to the run game and keep the ball away from the high powered offense. I mean we are talking about 7 touchdowns for it to go OVER. KC's corners are not that bad but I'm a lil worried about the linebackers so the Pats are going to make more short passes to Gradkowski the TE vs the wide outs. Either way its late in the season and I dont think this is a game the Pats are gonna bring out their best schemes.

**rockhardfister** · 11-21-11, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by PickMeAwinner

My gut tells me UNDER would be the play. Its not a statement game for the Pats, with KC's Cassell out of the equation I think KC may resort to the run game and keep the ball away from the high powered offense. I mean we are talking about 7 touchdowns for it to go OVER. KC's corners are not that bad but I'm a lil worried about the linebackers so the Pats are going to make more short passes to Gradkowski the TE vs the wide outs. Either way its late in the season and I dont think this is a game the Pats are gonna bring out their best schemes.

Agree. 47 is a lot for a team who couldnt score with Cassel at the helm. I could see Palko throwing up some big jump balls to those big widouts ... that pay dividends.

**tommyminh** · 11-21-11, 07:35 PM

Palkl cant play or throw u dont think ne will get at least 3 td each half time and all kc need to do

is 2 fg or 1 td in the whole game

**tommyminh** · 11-21-11, 07:39 PM

Cause in this game it gonna be alots sack, fumble and inter.

**John Ryan** · 11-21-11, 07:50 PM

Ok. We are at day 1 of the one of the biggest weeks in sports. Big time college football rivalries led by the Iron Bowl and some very interesting opening lines for many of those games. I hope you all follow the College Hoops thread this season too.

I will play a 5* amount 'OVER' the posted total of 46 1/2 points -110. I feel confident that NE will score at least 38 points in this game and that leaves 10 points for KC. The simulator shows a range of scoring from Patriots 27 to 52 that covers 90% of the possible outcomes. With the Patriots offense executing ball control type plays exploit underneath routes they can drive as many yards as necessary for touch downs. In this typ of game, I believe you will Belichick attempt to score early and often and to build a double digit lead so that he can protect his secondary and injury riddled defense. I find in quite interesting that the Packers, who are 10-0 have the 31st ranked passing defense and New England, who is arguably the second best NFL team ranking worst at 32nd allowing 309 passing yards per game.

**John Ryan** · 11-21-11, 07:55 PM

Normally, the Patriots would look to rush the quarterback aggressively given that it is a rookie starter in Tyler Palko. However, with so many injuries to the back-end, they will use three and four-man fronts and choose to blitz infrequently. These blitzes will feature defensive ends and tackles backing off into coverage while corners and linebackers attack a gap; usually the 'A' gap. Even tough this is common place in the NFL, the manner in which the Patriots disguise the 'look' will create confusion with Palko and his progressions. Yes, there could be a pick six or even two tonight in this game, but I have to say those mistakes will not be made by the Brady led Patriots offense. Last, the Patriots are about to embark on a stretch of games where they will be favored in all of them, in my opinion, and I think everyone is now realizing that the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will eventually run through Foxborough.

**John Ryan** · 11-21-11, 07:56 PM

For those parlay and teaser lovers out there and I know this is quite obvious, but teasing the Patriots and the 'over' is a recommended wager. BOL to everyone and remember this is just the FIRST night of several nights in what will be a big week.

**PhillyeagleIrish** · 11-21-11, 07:57 PM

Im just wondering this, if you think the patriots score at least 38, why no play on the patriots as well?

**rockhardfister** · 11-21-11, 07:58 PM

OK Man - OVER it is.

**ItemB** · 11-21-11, 07:58 PM

Do you have a college football thread or just the plays on the front page of sbr? Thanks for all the picks and work you do

**PhillyeagleIrish** · 11-21-11, 08:23 PM

Hoping for a stress free cover tonight just like last night

**rockhardfister** · 11-21-11, 09:44 PM

I liked the Chiefs and the Under and now it not even Half time and im going to bed. OVER has no chance.

**Bondite** · 11-21-11, 09:46 PM

Your a joke. I remember the ravens game 2 weeks ago was at a total of 6 at half and covered over 45.5. Take your negative shit posts to yourself

**Bondite** · 11-21-11, 09:47 PM

What has no chance is that you ever liked chiefs and the under, which btw won't hit anyway

**spike1519** · 11-21-11, 10:02 PM

WOW you go away for a week and this thread turns into "Housewives of Atlanta" can't believe what I'm seing here. I gotta say that regardless of win's or loss records my bookie account is up so much it's hard to refute that John has a winning record. I've been following since week 4 and I'm way up, if your not then it's been bad money management on your behalf PERIOD! This is without a doubt the best thread on here. Not sure when J.R got so mad but him and his croney's have blown this in directions none of us want to go! I believe in John's picks and his underlying service to us all! meanwhile on earth I'm so indebted to John I can't say enuff If you haven't profited from this thead then you simply have not followed it. Most of us only need look at our starting toals and our total's now to realize that John has made us money THAT IS ALL!............SPIKE..............

**John Ryan** · 11-21-11, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by ItemB

Do you have a college football thread or just the plays on the front page of sbr? Thanks for all the picks and work you do

I put college plays here and are duplicated on the NCAA hoops thread too. I am also featuring the Texas a&m game this week. If you don't find it let me know. Thanks.

**spike1519** · 11-21-11, 10:28 PM

I'd like to look into something that my S.Q.L program has brought to my attention (against all I feel as a loyal Green bay Fan). This week's game with Detroit going against Green Bay at Detroit. Green bays offense is severely hurt on the front line as witnessed by the close game with Tamba Bay the final score might not reflect what a close game this was! This is a perfect spoiler spot for Detroit to spoil plans with there #1 FINED AS WELL AS HUNGRY DEFENSE. They played great this week and look to in my opinion (I realize I'll get grief for this) cover if not win the game being spoiler's of Green Bay's perfect season. If not this week against Detroit on Thanksgiving national telivision then where in there schedule does Green Bay lose one? or just have Detroit cover the spread? My research (which will follow) show's if not here then nowhere does Green Bay come this close to losing if not losing outright! sorry to change the subject off of personell assault's against John and back on football (WHERE WE STARTED) but let's get back to football rather then harrassing John for his pick's. I see no thread entitled J.R and his picks? (and I consider him a good capper!) hindsight is the best and why crap all over a guy who has helped us learn so much! Thanks John as always............spike.................

**PhillyeagleIrish** · 11-21-11, 10:35 PM

Just what the doctor ordered right there a quick punt return touchdown

**fecgp40** · 11-21-11, 10:36 PM

Another TD on a punt return! Over has a chance now, but the Chiefs have to do SOMETHING. C'mon Palko!!!!

**BeardedTaco** · 11-21-11, 10:56 PM

all of those short FGs that werent TDs might come back to bite us

**BeardedTaco** · 11-21-11, 11:02 PM

palko lol

**PickMeAwinner** · 11-21-11, 11:35 PM

Sorry guys went with my gut and got a W, its rare that I fade, got lucky tonight

**spike1519** · 11-21-11, 11:36 PM

ok I can't find the ncaab mens let me know where it is please quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**JR007** · 11-22-11, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by spike1519

WOW you go away for a week and this thread turns into "Housewives of Atlanta" can't believe what I'm seing here. I gotta say that regardless of win's or loss records my bookie account is up so much it's hard to refute that John has a winning record. I've been following since week 4 and I'm way up, if your not then it's been bad money management on your behalf PERIOD! This is without a doubt the best thread on here. Not sure when J.R got so mad but him and his croney's have blown this in directions none of us want to go! I believe in John's picks and his underlying service to us all! meanwhile on earth I'm so indebted to John I can't say enuff If you haven't profited from this thead then you simply have not followed it. Most of us only need look at our starting toals and our total's now to realize that John has made us money THAT IS ALL!............SPIKE..............

not mad at all ...dude, just looking for honest posting of records
you cannot predict future outcomes based on the results of past events

current record 5* 24-22-1

**John Ryan** · 11-22-11, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by spike1519

I'd like to look into something that my S.Q.L program has brought to my attention (against all I feel as a loyal Green bay Fan). This week's game with Detroit going against Green Bay at Detroit. Green bays offense is severely hurt on the front line as witnessed by the close game with Tamba Bay the final score might not reflect what a close game this was! This is a perfect spoiler spot for Detroit to spoil plans with there #1 FINED AS WELL AS HUNGRY DEFENSE. They played great this week and look to in my opinion (I realize I'll get grief for this) cover if not win the game being spoiler's of Green Bay's perfect season. If not this week against Detroit on Thanksgiving national telivision then where in there schedule does Green Bay lose one? or just have Detroit cover the spread? My research (which will follow) show's if not here then nowhere does Green Bay come this close to losing if not losing outright! sorry to change the subject off of personell assault's against John and back on football (WHERE WE STARTED) but let's get back to football rather then harrassing John for his pick's. I see no thread entitled J.R and his picks? (and I consider him a good capper!) hindsight is the best and why crap all over a guy who has helped us learn so much! Thanks John as always............spike.................

Great insight Spike. Think of all the years Detroit has played on Thanksgiving and despite their record seem to always play extremely well on Thanksgiving Day. if the Super Bowl were held on this day they would lead the NFL in Championships. I agree that the TB game was much closer than the final score, but the current line may already reflect exactly what your analysis is point out. I do like Detroit.

**John Ryan** · 11-22-11, 09:54 AM

Just a summary of a solid weekend. TWO 5* College Hoops Plays today ON Belmont and on Old Dominion and the reports on the front page of the CBB portion of the web site.

I have included by 5* College Football Plays plays as well with reports also found on the web site. Thanks

5* Southern Cal over Oregon and 2* using the Money line
5* LSU over Mississippi
5* Oklahoma over Baylor
5* Penn State over Ohio State with 2* on the Money Line
5* Missouri over Texas Tech

The money line plays are not included in the posted record. I am glad that many of you have benefitted greatly from the the whole body of research that we exchange here. No doubt!

College Hoops Saturday
5* Belmont over Towson State - WIN
5* Old Dominion over South Florida - WIN

Rest of the plays can be found on the CBB thread.

College Hoops sit at 8-7 ATS, but were 4-6 ATS entering the weekend. I assure you there will be a stretch that will be one of those 10-0 ATS runs at some point. Obviously, I never know when these hot streaks will occur. For that reason it is imperative to follow each release as prescribed and continue to wager the same amount per * unit.

NFL is now 27-17 ATS for 5* plays and 3-1 ATS with 10* plays and 1-1 with 20* plays.

5* went 2-2 ATS this past week and we lost last night with the 'over' play. Just was the wrong side. As I wrote, I fully expected NE to come out on fire and put KC away early and it was the direct opposite. The 10* on Philadelphia was the dominant reason we were up for the weekend in the NFL.

Some of you sent private messages to me asking how I factor in the Seattle Money line winner and Arizona, who upset the Eagles as 14 point dogs using the Money line. They are NOT included in the records and are offered only for your OPTIONAL consideration. I am glad they worked out and ir is always nice to look in hindsight and think ' Man I wish I had parlayed Seattle and Arizona and then Denver Monday using the Money lines. The other non-record winner was a suggestion to bet New England (last week). I will certainly continue to provide some plays that I do feel strongly about from time to time , like NE and Denver, but only the plays I have graded 5, 10, and 20* will get counted on the record. Thanks for all of the support and great exchange of handicapping techniques, opinions, and research.