2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[JR007]

"maybe off one or two" - you might be one or two bottles short of a six pack, and when you make a sweeping statement with no evidence to back it up and then make a hugely glaring error as such to state "1-1 on the 10*" when it is abundantly clear to anyone who reads this thread that John has made THREE 10* plays and is sporting a 2-1 winning record, you do not do yourself any favors. That is a huge statistical error to simply "miss" 33% of the data... no faith in your tally of John's record.. go back, try harder.

I had to go through 54 pages of threads clown, took me 2 hours, the last 10* play a few pages back he did not post as a official play, check for yourself, I stand by my research, i wrote all the wins and losses down, , I got his win record right did I not ???, go through for yourself, even if I made a mistake...on a 5 star he is nowhere near or over 62 % ...he posted a inaccurate record,

[Madison]

Looking at the early lines this week, I can't believe the NYJ are only -4.5, ATL is only -6, and BUFF is +1.5. Really like those three teams this week, especially NYJ. Tebow is no threat to pass and as good as the Jets corners are, they can put 9 in the box to stop Tebow and the run game.

Done zero work but beware the Bills. They sure looked they were on the verge of imploding the last 2 weeks. BOL

[wiggie]

I had to go through 54 pages of threads clown, took me 2 hours, the last 10* play a few pages back he did not post as a official play, check for yourself, I stand by my research, i wrote all the wins and losses down, , I got his win record right did I not ???, go through for yourself, even if I made a mistake...on a 5 star he is nowhere near or over 62 % ...he posted a inaccurate record,

why do you take this much time out of your day to attack john just let it be find another forum you make me so angry

[Jedi Mind Picks]

I had to go through 54 pages of threads clown, took me 2 hours, the last 10* play a few pages back he did not post as a official play, check for yourself, I stand by my research, i wrote all the wins and losses down, , I got his win record right did I not ???, go through for yourself, even if I made a mistake...on a 5 star he is nowhere near or over 62 % ...he posted a inaccurate record,

You spent 2 hours going through the thread?
just let it out man its gonna be ok!

What ever happened to you to make you this crazy must have been bad, cant see many pages without one of your posts ranting and raving... did someone steal your cookies as a kid?

[JR007]

had the time dude, had to see what's up, I do not believe anyone who says they are hitting 62%,, I was right,, it was worth it

I have made my point, I am moving on.......good luck with "occupy wall street"

he is here to generate hits for the website !!!

[my6sen]

well done

[my6sen]

james bond bring out the truth of john doe

[adrenalinerush]

had the time dude, had to see what's up, i do not believe anyone who says they are hitting 62%,, i was right,, it was worth it

i have made my point, i am moving on.......good luck with "occupy wall street"

amf!

[John Ryan]

can you guy's not see the difference in picks and additional ideas in smaller print here you guys are spilitting hairs against someone whos doing us a huge service. who among you woulda come up with the seattle win with the points please. the guy gives you winners and answers your questions with statemement like if i had to pick, i'd consider putting! these are extras in reference to your input why is it me as a newbie has no trouble distinguishing plays from suggestions on this thread . WOW John what a great job this weekend I cannot thank you enuff..........spike.........

Thanks again Spike and to all who have made this thread great. I went 2-1 ATS officially over the weekend. I did offer a money line play with Arizona, which is not included in the results, but obviously has made some of you a ton of extra cash. Moreover, I gave out easy winners with the Patriots and then Green Bay. Those two also do not count on the record.

Please note, that when we record the NFL opening line videos and then the Round Table discussions they are without the benefit of my final research.During these shows, we discuss possible line movements, matchups, some systems, angles, and game situations. I believe I have made it clear, especially this week, that my early week assessments are just an opening view point and not something to bet aggressively. Many pros will get down on a play early and if the line moves a major amount will 'buy back' the bet later int he week. I do not advocate that nor have I ever done that sort of market trading technique.

The ONLY plays that are valid are the ones put here on this thread in the form of 5*, 10*, and 20* Titans. The optional money line plays, parlays, teaser. and sides are for you to play as well and I would love to count them in the record. The value of this thread reaches far beyond one week of results and the exchange of research and dialogue has made us all better handicappers.

Now, how do you all feel about Tebow's option scheme and their chances of upsetting the Jets tonight?

[SXRD71]

I feel Tebow is gaining momentum and confidence with every game he continues to play or win. Bottomline the Broncos are rallying behind him and mile high has something to cheer about!

[j_to_the]

I have absolutely no faith in Tebow and the Broncos upsetting the Jets. The ONLY reason this game potentially plays out close is b/c of the Jets playing Sunday night after a big/emotional let down, and having to travel to Denver for a game 4 days later. Therefore, the Jets will play conservative and run run run the ball.

Also, I don't think the Jets really need the time to prepare. With Cro and Revis on the edges, you can let them do their thing against a terrible pass attack, and free up most of your LBs to play a read-and-react style of D. They need to stay disciplined and contain the run - and they can do this without any scheming, which is huge on 4 days rest.

The other key will be Sanchez and what they allow him to do - which I think, like their D, will be conservative and fundamental. While boring, I think this is all the Jets need to do to win. And that is all they are looking to do: win. Ugly, close, whatever, they just need a W. The Jets have a phenomenal record when Sanchez doesn't have 2+ turnovers, so I think they limit him and cater to a run game.

However, if they can get out to a lead, and force Tebow to throw - this dramatically favors the Jets, and this game is over. Tebow's completion % in the past 5 games: 25%, 47%, 46%, 48%, 40% --- and that was against some soft DB's, not Revis and Cro. While the Jets D has given up points, they matchup really well against Denver.

I like the Jets to win and the under. I'd even entertain a teaser.

Edit: yeah. Sunday night. my bad. thanks Jake.

[jakeloftin2186]

They played Sunday brah

[rockhardfister]

I think the Jets win and cover tonight. This is really a must win for both teams as the Broncos still have hope, so I do believe we will be getting their best efforts. Unfortunately, the Jets are a the better team by far and their best should prevail. I believe that the Jets defense poses the worst type matchup with the Broncos Offense stylistically. I expect Sanchez to play better tonight. The Patriots and Brady are the Jets kryptonite and Tebow and the Broncos are not. Crazier things have happened but I have to think that Tebow is good for 2x picks tonight and maybe a fumble. With that said I am eagerly awaiting to see who you pick. Wouldnt mind seeing Rex Ryans winning % after a loss.

[PickMeAwinner]

Jets all the way tonight I dont even think its gonna be a close 1. The teams that Denver beat has weak defense against the run or even weak defense overall. Denver did beat the Raider but I think Oakland killed themselves in the 2nd half of that game when they had the lead. NYJ will control the temple of the the game. Tebow and Vick, one is getting praised and one is hurt. Let get real folks, this is a mismatch and lets take advantage of it.

[rockhardfister]

Tebow must have a lot of confidence after what John Fox said about him last night.

[jakeloftin2186]

So what is johns pick here

[shift_knob]

What are you feeling John? My books are st -7.5 jets

[PickMeAwinner]

Man I should have took it this morning my book was Jets -6.5 now its -7. Either way I think Jets will get a win in double digits. I waits to see whats the play tonight is.

[jjaycuny]

I got the Jets at -6 -110. I also think the Jets will easily cover. Although I've had that feeling before and been very very wrong

[ouman101]

Man, its annoying to have to skim past all of the BS to get to John's play(s). John, do you mind starting another thread titled "LETS ARGUE"? Then we can send anyone that doesn't want to talk sports to that thread.

Anyways, is there a play for tonight's game?

[Thurman]

You spent 2 hours going through the thread?
just let it out man its gonna be ok!

What ever happened to you to make you this crazy must have been bad, cant see many pages without one of your posts ranting and raving... did someone steal your cookies as a kid?

Why are you guys getting so upset with JR007 for attempting to post facts about the record? I really really appreciate what John does, free of charge no less, and love the insight he provides. I also appreciate what JR is doing - if there is a discrepancy in the record being claimed, I think it's important that we are aware of that. Taking two hours to review the thread is a good thing, we all should do it to verify the info we are relying on is in fact accurate.

[streak1234]

I readily agree that both arguments are most valid. There is no doubt as to how greatly John's time, effort, and insight are appreciated. On the other hand, accuracy is excellency!

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Jets are ranked 12th and Denver 17th overall on NFL Power Poll. Then on NFL statistics Denver is 22nd and Jets 23rd. I dont see a blowout on TNF. Last Thursday it went Away Underdog and the Over which surprised lot of people. I see a repeat of the same Denver+6.5 and Over 40.

[John Ryan]

To everyone: Excellent research and discussion of your opinions. really great.

I am going to go with the 'over' for a 5* graded play with a current line at 40, -110... most places are less than -110, but let's mark this one down with a -110 vig. There is a possibility it could drop to 39 1/2 so if you can work and order at that price give it a shot. I don't think there is any risk at missing 40 as the majority of the flows are betting Jets and 'under'

IF, and I emphasize IF (laugh) I was going to play a parlay/teaser take the Broncos plus the 7 1/2 and the 'over'. I don't like a teaser play as I think this game will work one of two ways and the expected score is not all that close at the end of the game. Modest probabilities that the game is won by either team by 14 or more points. Obviously, there is a greater probability that the Jets win by 14 then Denver.

In addition, if you like Denver consider making a combination bet using 3.5 stars with the points and a 1.5 star on the money line.

I have to admit that if it ends up being a blowout, common sense, tells us it is the Jets and if it is blowout then I can see the Jets scoring 35 points on their own merit. This implies that we need Denver to score just two FG to get the 'over' win. If Denver is competitive then I do expect an outcome where the total could win by the end of third quarter.

[Southpaw]

It's all about value

Everyone in the world on the Jets. Short week to prepare and coming off of an emotional loss. All the pressure is on New York here because they are suppose to destroy the Broncos on the road by putting 9 in the box. Thursday Night games have a history with surprising results.





I'll take a shot with the Broncos ML at +240.

[John Ryan]

Here is one matchup i think is certainly worth watching and try to locate Denver rookie line backer Miller on the field prior to the snap. I have found watching the trenches and alignments and not where the ball is offers an even more enjoyable form of entertainment. Jets are coming off a humiliating ‘reality check’ loss to the Patriots and now have had just four days to prepare for a completely new and vastly different style of NFL offense. This new option scheme has had zero turnovers in their past two games, while Sanchez and company continue to be turnover prone. A player to watch is Broncos LB Von Miller, who is arguably the best rookie defender this season. Denver will use a 3-3-5 look and then Miller can move into the ‘A’ gap or move to the perimeter and come from Sanchez’s blind side. Miller has been a monster player coming off the edge.

Good luck tonight. So, to recap, we are taking a 5* graded play 'over'; for optional wagers play a 3.5* play on Denver parlayed with the 'over'.

[John Ryan]

I also have released a 5* graded play in CBB thread.

[rockhardfister]

Jets are ranked 12th and Denver 17th overall on NFL Power Poll. Then on NFL statistics Denver is 22nd and Jets 23rd. I dont see a blowout on TNF. Last Thursday it went Away Underdog and the Over which surprised lot of people. I see a repeat of the same Denver+6.5 and Over 40.

Last week really doesnt matter. Im throwing down on the Jets tonight. I dont know how you think the Broncos are going to score. Yes, the Jets can be run on but the Broncos are hurting without Moreno and Mclegcheese. Is Champ Bailey going to get a pick six? Crazy special teams play? Another shitty game from the Sanchize? I think the Jets played their shitty game last week. Im looking for a Jets performance much like what they did to Jacksonville at home against another rookie QB (with decent passing skills) and better running attack than Denver...but who knows man you may be right. I had Ohio last night in a similar position (on road, short week, laying 6) against a Bowling Green team who's defense is terrible...minus last night when they looked like the Steel curtain.

[John Ryan]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-betting/1392687-ncaa-basketball-john-ryan.html

for the CBB thread... off to a 2-4 ATS start. very long season. Not the first time I have gotten off to a slow start in college hoops

[rockhardfister]

I could see Tebow getting knocked out of the game and Orton going bat shit crazy with 3TDs.

[august_]

To everyone: Excellent research and discussion of your opinions. really great.

I am going to go with the 'over' for a 5* graded play with a current line at 40, -110... most places are less than -110, but let's mark this one down with a -110 vig. There is a possibility it could drop to 39 1/2 so if you can work and order at that price give it a shot. I don't think there is any risk at missing 40 as the majority of the flows are betting Jets and 'under'

IF, and I emphasize IF (laugh) I was going to play a parlay/teaser take the Broncos plus the 7 1/2 and the 'over'. I don't like a teaser play as I think this game will work one of two ways and the expected score is not all that close at the end of the game. Modest probabilities that the game is won by either team by 14 or more points. Obviously, there is a greater probability that the Jets win by 14 then Denver.

In addition, if you like Denver consider making a combination bet using 3.5 stars with the points and a 1.5 star on the money line.

I have to admit that if it ends up being a blowout, common sense, tells us it is the Jets and if it is blowout then I can see the Jets scoring 35 points on their own merit. This implies that we need Denver to score just two FG to get the 'over' win. If Denver is competitive then I do expect an outcome where the total could win by the end of third quarter.

a problem here John. my bookie has these handicaps:

DEN+10.5, -192
DEN+5.5, +112
DEN+4.5, +124
DEN ML, +250

which one would you recomend me? of course i'm going with the over too

[PickMeAwinner]

JETS -7 + OVER 40 for me tonight! Thanx and G.L to all

[CaribbeanKid]

Hey guys. Is there a link to John Ryan's college football picks?

[clazzi]

JR, if you're so keen on showing his record is inaccurate you should probably list all the plays to prove your own accuracy. You're right about the work load, I just tried to do it and I don't have the patience. No beef against you or John...you want to help us out and John has made me money so I'm good either way.

And not to take away from this thread...but I'm also interested in your methods. Your post about how data mining is not helpful, how you play line movements, and the few about the mentors you've had...any luck you can share more on that with us? Or just me? I'm in my early 20s and I'm already sick of the working life so getting out of the rat race early would be awesome...sitting at home on the computer winning bets...please, help.

[bassaholicman]

Hey John, Last two years defintely support over tonite. Jets are 13-2 overs in last two years of road games. Good Luck and thx for the write ups John.

Re: the recorded record - I agree that keeping a accurate cumulative record would lend credibility to you as a capper/adviser etc. I understand one thought that says "as long as we are winning why does it matter". But from a guy that would pay good money for a consistent long term winner I have to think how do I know if he's a consistent long term winner? Because his record says so? Well if I'm going to pay for picks in the future, I wouldn't expect your record keeping to be any better or more transparent if you already had my business vs. if you were trying to get my business. At the end of the day, I think it's clear you are releasing picks to earn business for your handicapping service in the future. Just my two cents - transparent record keeping is on my short list of real trust worthy services - whether it's stock or sport investing services.