It Looks Like the Packers Will Be Favored by Kick-off

[LT Profits]

What's wrong with setting up a fat middle? I see this game as coming down to a FG either way. I've been using teasers all week on the Packers side, but if the line moves across the zero I'm doing the same thing with Atlanta and hoping for a close game with the huge real estate of +-7 on both sides.

Shooting for a middle when you are already +EV is a losing move in the long term from a EV perspective. It is only positive if the buyback is also +EV.

Now I know that +EG guys hedge with -EV buybacks often, but I am not that conservative.

[LT Profits]

OK, I think I've adequately stated my case enough, time to cap other sports. There may be some hidden gems today with everybody focusing on football.

[Jones10]

OK, I think I've adequately stated my case enough, time to cap other sports. There may be some hidden gems today with everybody focusing on football.

[slacker00]

Shooting for a middle when you are already +EV is a losing move in the long term from a EV perspective. It is only positive if the buyback is also +EV.

Now I know that +EG guys hedge with -EV buybacks often, but I am not that conservative.

Well, I'm not really talking about hedging. I'm talking about betting on it being a close game.



Also, where are you getting your power rankings? Here's where my sources have the final 8 in power rankings:

1. Pats. (Head and shoulders above the rest)
...
2. Steelers
3. Falcons
4. Ravens (These 3 are the second tier under the Pats. But the Saints were also in this group and they lost.)
...
5. Packers
6. Bears
7. Jets (This is the last tier of good teams which also included Eagles, Colts, Chiefs, Giants, Chargers, Bucs.)
...
...
8. Seahawks (As far as strict power ratings, Seattle has been in the lowest 1/4 of the NFL all year.)



Personally, I'd flipflop the Packers & Bears because the Bears posted a better record for a reason. But it's close.

[Fishhead]

A.J. HAWK will play!!

[daneblazer]

The Falcons being the underdog at home coming off a bye? Come on. There's value all over betting the Falcons there.

[Fishhead]

The Falcons being the underdog at home coming off a bye? Come on. There's value all over betting the Falcons there.

I think the Packers playing in 6 days is a bigger factor in this game than ATL being rested and more prepared with a bye....................

[Erock87]

Matty ice @ home gets my money. GL

[jjgold]

Packers are the most dangerous team in the nfl the last 3 years, they are knocking on the door and Rogers is a stud.

Packers are the play, they have way to much for Atl to handle

Pack win this game and you might be looking at superbowl champs

[slacker00]

Pack win this game and you might be looking at superbowl champs

Even if the Packers win, which they might, they'll have no cakewalk through Chicago, much less facing the Pats.

[Jnas]

I'm starting to love the Falcons here.

[steveC3]

i love the packers in this one.bol to all

[riggs]

Turner is a slouch now though he has fallen way off since the first game

Why Atlanta has this reputation as such a great running team is beyond my comprehension?

The Falcons average 3.8 yards a carry on the ground...

Defensively the Falcons let up nearly 230 yards a game through the air, and 4.6 yards a carry on the ground.

[Fishhead]

Packers are the most dangerous team in the nfl the last 3 years, they are knocking on the door and Rogers is a stud.

Packers are the play, they have way to much for Atl to handle

Pack win this game and you might be looking at superbowl champs

[firedawg]

you guys are nuts backing green bay...... atlantas run game will decide this game.. people giving credit to the packers run game are nuts. they ran well against a crap eagles defense

[riggs]

never fukkin heard of ya pal. have fun pissing you're money away on GB you fukkin square

How the f*ck is someone betting on a #6 seed road team in the divisional round of the playoffs a f*ckin square? Especially when you consider the fact that the ATS money is essentially equal and the Packers are dogs? Please explain this to me.

[Fishhead]

you guys are nuts backing green bay...... atlantas run game will decide this game.. people giving credit to the packers run game are nuts. they ran well against a crap eagles defense

[firedawg]

what fishhead you on both sides of this game?

[Fishhead]

what fishhead you on both sides of this game?

Yes

[KC]

For nfc champs I grabbed ATL +200 (heavier) and GB +250. I can't see the winner of this game not in the bowl.

[slacker00]

How the f*ck is someone betting on a #6 seed road team in the divisional round of the playoffs a f*ckin square? Especially when you consider the fact that the ATS money is essentially equal and the Packers are dogs? Please explain this to me.

Because you are paying #1 seed prices.

If GB was getting 4 or 5 points, then they'd be the "sharp" play here, shrewdly taking the value play.

But, with GB only getting 1 point, now, there's no value at all, unless you really believe that GB should be the #1 seed and Atlanta should really be the #6 seed. If that's the case, we'd all really like to know why GB is so great and Atlanta is so bad. Maybe I haven't been watching enough ESPN. On paper, Atlanta is every bit as good as GB in every category, if not much better in some key areas such as running game and special teams. There's a reason why Atlanta finished the season 13-3 versus GB's 10-6. Most notable is their head to head game.

[Fishhead]

Because you are paying #1 seed prices.

If GB was getting 4 or 5 points, then they'd be the "sharp" play here, shrewdly taking the value play.

But, with GB only getting 1 point, now, there's no value at all, unless you really believe that GB should be the #1 seed and Atlanta should really be the #6 seed. If that's the case, we'd all really like to know why GB is so great and Atlanta is so bad. Maybe I haven't been watching enough ESPN. On paper, Atlanta is every bit as good as GB in every category, if not much better in some key areas such as running game and special teams. There's a reason why Atlanta finished the season 13-3 versus GB's 10-6. Most notable is their head to head game.

Yes, injuries to the Packers.........

[agharah1]

He's right, its not enough to just be contrarian, there has to be value in the pick.

[Fishhead]

As we stand right NOW, there is little value in either side..........


Better to attack the EPL games beginning in 30 minutes.

[jwbama23]

Toss up game. I cant wait to watch it though and may place a live wager.

[asianfootballs]

Atlanta's Special Teams wins the game.

[firedawg]

As we stand right NOW, there is little value in either side..........


Better to attack the EPL games beginning in 30 minutes.

give us an epl game fisher

[cadillac pete]

Took GB on the ML +125 on Wednesday...That's my play and sticking to it..

[McBa1n]

Don't see much value in this game either way. Way too much uncertainty. GB out-talents Atlanta in key areas, save O Line/RB, but Atlanta has one of the top coaching staffs in the league and Mr Smithy in Atl is one of the top game managers out there... Atlanta can get away with playing bad because they have top notch game management and don't get away from a very solid game-winning philosophy. Special teams/game management very well could win/lose this one. It could also be one sided either way. There's just too many uncertains involved in this game. If I _had_ to play the game, teasing the Pack seems like the only 'no duh' wager involved and even I don't feel all that certain in that.

[Starion]

I'm still failing to see how this GB team is some type of juggernaut. This is a team who basically had a home playoff game against a Chicago team that had 0 to play for, and barely won. They were fortunate to get out of philly with a win as well. GB was nearly burned by vick at the end despite philly's poor game.

If you don't think home field is big in the playoffs, just ask Seattle. They had no chance last week, right?

[Fishhead]

give us an epl game fisher

arsenal -185

betjamaica

[falconticket]

Every Joe square in America outside Ga is putting his $20 on Green Bay. Gotta love online gamblers. Falcon backers will rake it in tonight.

[Recurring]

Should be a good game either way... I hope the falcons pull it out, but packers can always be a tough team to play..

[pavyracer]

Atlanta averages 3.8 yards per carry, let's not over state their running game.

They're not that good of a running team, but they do stick with it...

If my math is correct 3 X 3.8 > 10 so if they average this today they should be moving the chains all day.

[pavyracer]

so let me get this straight , LT...cus its confusing me.... you think that a GB team, who lost on the road to chicago, washington, atlanta, detroit and new england should be favored...on the road, again...against the best home team in the nfc...who already beat them at home once??? put the bottle down Fishhead... you are reading way too much into this line movement also... the books have had an entire week to juggle the line around at 1 and 2 ... Pay more attention to what happened to the line the first hour it opened as opposed to what happened throughout an entire week ... how long you been doing this stuff?

This is the same kind of late line movement we have seen in the Oregon/Auburn movement and we know what happened there. Also 95% of SBR was on Oregon as is today with Packers.