It Looks Like the Packers Will Be Favored by Kick-off

[tshafer]

LT nothing to say about the public?

[KGambler]

I cant believe none of the so called experts are taking into consideration that the packers were on the field in philly at 8pm sun night and now are playing on the road again sat.

Yeah, no one in the world but you knows about that. It probably never factored into the line at all. I doubt the linesmakers even know anything about NFL football.

You got any more inside info???

[Sniperpicks]

Falcons under Matt Ryan lost to Arizona and Kurt Warner in the playoffs. I guess he meant .................... no experience winning a playoff game

[hitthew8room]

packers are gonna win, flacons have played a ton of close games against good teams

[raydog]

Aside from the fact that Green Bay is the better team, see Post 27

so let me get this straight , LT...cus its confusing me.... you think that a GB team, who lost on the road to chicago, washington, atlanta, detroit and new england should be favored...on the road, again...against the best home team in the nfc...who already beat them at home once??? put the bottle down Fishhead... you are reading way too much into this line movement also... the books have had an entire week to juggle the line around at 1 and 2 ... Pay more attention to what happened to the line the first hour it opened as opposed to what happened throughout an entire week ... how long you been doing this stuff?

[kingdom]

How quiet are all you packer backers gonna be when your dead wrong.you guys are awfully loud right now. Atl wins ml. If I'm wrong, I never hide.

[Monte]

Which is a joke, Atlanta should be -3.
Do people realize that the slightly better team plays at home here?!?

[crustyme]

last time these teams met last november, turner ran for like 120yds yet they needed a 48yd fg to barely pull it out.

now gb has a running attack plus a hot rodgers. as long as they dont throw to james jones i think they can win outright. lol

[rm18]

Turner is a slouch now though he has fallen way off since the first game

[tony_come]

I'm letting you guys know

packers win

[Monte]

oh and LT stop it already...i read in another thread that you would put the Pats ML to -900 or something, because you think they would win 9/10 games...when books like Pinny have it at just -400, and would get HAMMERED if the line would be off by so much.
The wisdom you spread is like toilet paper =p

[MBENZ]

Packers are getting healthy and hitting their potential at just the right time.Pack/Steelers should make a great SB.

[Jaug]

Such a fishy line, would expect atlanta to be bigger favorites. Right now, according to line, only thing atlanta got going for them is home field adv.

[mav924]

Packers ML is a good play. Best I could find is 115 at Betus

[slacker00]

Why? You would already have mad +EV and would only be cutting into it unless the line insanely goes to Atlanta +3, which I highly doubt.

What's wrong with setting up a fat middle? I see this game as coming down to a FG either way. I've been using teasers all week on the Packers side, but if the line moves across the zero I'm doing the same thing with Atlanta and hoping for a close game with the huge real estate of +-7 on both sides.

[donnyguru]

last time these teams met last november, turner ran for like 120yds yet they needed a 48yd fg to barely pull it out.

now gb has a running attack plus a hot rodgers. as long as they dont throw to james jones i think they can win outright. lol

One game of running the ball on Philly without Stuart Bradley doesn't constitute a running attack.

[Mikail]

Packers for the win.

[Dark Horse]

With this type of back-and-forth movement, I'm willing to bet that the public didn't cause the early movement (to -2.5). If sharps were waiting for +3, and the public jumped on GB later in the week, that would also means the wait-outs had to settle for less. So I wouldn't be so willing to read too much into this movement. The general public knows very little about Atlanta.

[LT Profits]

LT nothing to say about the public?

That only validates point of this thread. Let;s wee what happens to this line late morning. early afternoon.

[LT Profits]

so let me get this straight , LT...cus its confusing me.... you think that a GB team, who lost on the road to chicago, washington, atlanta, detroit and new england should be favored...on the road, again...against the best home team in the nfc...who already beat them at home once??? put the bottle down Fishhead... you are reading way too much into this line movement also... the books have had an entire week to juggle the line around at 1 and 2 ... Pay more attention to what happened to the line the first hour it opened as opposed to what happened throughout an entire week ... how long you been doing this stuff?

It is a FACT that the Packers have the highest Power Rating in the NFC, so while my opinion is also that the Packers are better right now, my opinion is irrelevant and only consider that fact. Also irrelevant is just about anything the Packers did from the Detroit game back, because they were having offensive line issues all year long. That line has gelled over the last month when their only loss was by four points on the road vs. the best team in football with Matt Flynn at quarterback. That improved line was also the reason they were able to open up some holes for Sparks and the running game last week.

As for the initial line movement you are referring to, the biggest key there is that the line never hit 3, which is a strong indication that the books actually invited all that early money on Atlanta and are not that worried about it. And again, whether or not I think the Packers SHOULD be favored at Atlanta is irrelevant because this thread is based on how the line trended so quickly last night.

As for how long I have been doing this, judging by your overreaction, I would say longer than you have been on this earth.

[mighty maron]

Thank you for the write up LT.

[Dark Horse]

As for the initial line movement you are referring to, the biggest key there is that the line never hit 3, which is a strong indication that the books actually invited all that early money on Atlanta and are not that worried about it.

So just because the line didn't reach 3, the books were actually inviting the money?

Not the most objective interpretation. Some books may be so inclined, but most are not in the business of gambling.

[LT Profits]

oh and LT stop it already...i read in another thread that you would put the Pats ML to -900 or something, because you think they would win 9/10 games...when books like Pinny have it at just -400, and would get HAMMERED if the line would be off by so much.
The wisdom you spread is like toilet paper =p

Yes, the Pats should be -900, but like I said in that same thread, the best value is in teasing them down to -2.5. I didn't bet the ML because I don't like to lay -400 on anything just on general principle, but I admit in this case the -400 side holds the value and I wouldn't criticize anyone that lays the big chalk. On the other side, I think anyone that bets Jets at +3something is insane as that is a ridiculously low price under these circumstances.

[LT Profits]

How quiet are all you packer backers gonna be when your dead wrong.you guys are awfully loud right now. Atl wins ml. If I'm wrong, I never hide.

And I do?

Besides, this thread isn't really about the Packers winning (although I think they will) but rather what this line is going to do.

[LT Profits]

Which is a joke, Atlanta should be -3.
Do people realize that the slightly better team plays at home here?!?

Packers have higher Power Rating so books are saying Packers are better. They are right more often than they are wrong.

[Marigold HD]

Go Atlanta

[LT Profits]

So just because the line didn't reach 3, the books were actually inviting the money?

Not the most objective interpretation. Some books may be so inclined, but most are not in the business of gambling.

You don't think they HAD to know they would get flooded with Atlanta money at -1? And the only "gamble" they are making is that game does not land on 1 or 2. They action is probably pretty balanced money wise right now. If the line had gone to 3, it would have indicated that they thought they missed the boat on the opener and wanted GB buybacks.

[Dark Horse]

You don't think they HAD to know they would get flooded with Atlanta money at -1? And the only "gamble" they are making is that game does not land on 1 or 2. They action is probably pretty balanced money wise right now. If the line had gone to 3, it would have indicated that they thought they missed the boat on the opener and wanted GB buybacks.

This is my rough interpretation:
1) early money on ATL. Mostly sharp.
2) sharps waiting for +3.
3) late public money on GB.
4) late sharp money on GB +3 (bought hook).
5) as line starts to move back, sharps that missed the +3 boat joined the public and moved the line back to the opening line.

[brxbmbers42]

All the sheep are led to slaughter. I'm loving it!!

[magynuck]

I am not sure I would want balanced action on this game with an exposed 1 and 2....especially with what I would guess big exposure on the teased GB 8.5.

[LT Profits]

This is my rough interpretation:
1) early money on ATL. Mostly sharp.
2) sharps waiting for +3.
3) late public money on GB.
4) late sharp money on GB +3 (bought hook).
5) as line starts to move back, sharps that missed the +3 boat joined the public and moved the line back to the opening line.

And my guess is that the sharps waiting for +3 would have gone over the top, with the initial move up being a head fake.

[rockhardfister]

Close game it probably comes down to this : Falcons have the #2 rated special teams. Packers the #27

[LT Profits]

I am not sure I would want balanced action on this game with an exposed 1 and 2....especially with what I would guess big exposure on the teased GB 8.5.

Well the ATS action is balanced and an exposed 1 or 2 (2 more so) is not THAT major because of the low push percentages of those numbers. You do make a great point about the Teasers though, and the fact that they got out of the Wong Zone is another positive indicator for GB.

Then again, Volume is much higher for ATS than teasers in playoffs, where thousands of squares that don't bet all year only bet ATS.

[brxbmbers42]

Yeah, no one in the world but you knows about that. It probably never factored into the line at all. I doubt the linesmakers even know anything about NFL football.

You got any more inside info???

never fukkin heard of ya pal. have fun pissing you're money away on GB you fukkin square

[Sdotbold]

thanks LT