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Also, just wanted to state, I'll be using lines from Bookmaker from nowComment -
Analyst projections are high as I'm looking at lines early this week (Bobby's advice). Thus, I got a message from my Money Management to bet BIG this weekend.
Not many strong ATS plays. But some strong ML and Teasers. Let's start out right now.
2 Team Teaser (6 points)
Eagles -2
Cheifs -2
Risk 30 to Win 27.2
Guys jump on this one early. This one is a free one. Eagles and Cheifs are FAR superior than the teams they are facing.
Patriots -175 ML
Risk 35 to Win 20
Patriots -3 ATS
Risk 25 to Win 20
In other words, that's a LOCK. (4-0 on Locks this year)
I love betting on Brady at home. He hasn't lost a regular season home game since 2006.Comment -
So you're risking 60 units on Patriots, against the Jets???? Why???Comment -
got teaser
phi -0.5
kc pickComment -
My fade team has asked for your write up before they actually bet against Brady and Co... They were angry that we were on the wrong side of Detroit last week, and on the same side as you on the Saints last week and want to make sure they can adjust their formulas this week...Comment -
Because
a) Jets are a little worse than their record indicates. I think we all know that.
b) Patriots play extremely well at home, Brady hasn't lost at home regular season since 2006
c) -3 is basically the win. It might push, but I'll take that line anytime. Basically you either push or win this play.
d) Bet ML too so you get credit for the win. Because they WILL WIN
Like I said, I hit locks 90% long-term, 4-0 so far, 7-0 last year, book this.Comment -
I'm not counting my last week "chase" either. Its obvious I didn't get any stamp of approval and I was chasing for the 2nd straight week. You call chasing in a hurry and finding a pick a Lock pick? Technically yes. So I guess we have to differentiate between a Chase Lock and a Real Lock. Chase Locks are ones where I am down, and I make a ML + ATS play for later afternoon at the last second. Real Locks are the ones I actually have confident, get the consensus from the Lock team, and put it in early.
4-0 on REAL or Actual Locks
I'm not trying to try anything fancy here, but it's OBVIOUS that I wasn't that confident on Eagles against the Bears, I had no action (not even Parlay or ML) on them prior to Sunday and bet them after I was down. That's not what you call a LOCK.Comment -
But I'll be honest, I still haven't gotten the approval from my LOCK team for NE to be a LOCK pick this week. I will get that Tuesday night (hopefully) and will let you know. But I don't want the line to move, and I'm confident I will get the approval, that I am betting it right now. I'm not taking the play off either.
Might have another lock as well.Comment -
Ok. I think I'm with you now. So we have
REAL LOCKS that are 90%, NEAR LOCKS that are 80% and CHASE LOCKS that are 70%.
I'm surprised you don't have GOLDI LOCKS dude, you obviously live in your own fairytale land.Comment -
Um Chase Locks depend. It's basically a lean.
But this is common sense. Obviously a game I just make up on the spot to CHASE is not a LOCK
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This thread is laughable. Seriously, you are a pretty decent capper. I have to give you that. You spot value nicely (especially in +200 dogs) and you make some sharp ATS picks, but all this lock crap and different teams is ridiculous.
Anyway, I'm just a guy on a forum. Do what makes you happy, mate.Comment -
SSK, I'm reading through your thread and I'm seeing buzz words, "my fade team, my money management team, my lock team, my this team." What kind of fairytale land do you live in? I don't mean to sound like a hater or anything, but quite honestly judging by how and what your reasons are for backing your picks kinda makes me wonder...So I have a lock for you my man, and that is that SSK is all one person making his "handicapping operation" sound a lot bigger and important than it actually is. Bank it people.Comment -
i have a good feeling if the eagles had won you would've added that to your LOCK record and there would be none of this "chase" lock and "real" lock BS...
money management is about increasing as your bankroll increases and decreasing as you lose...the money management team should have no intuition to GO BIG this weekend. all they do is look at your bankroll and say increase the betting units. which, since you claim you have won every weekend, would always be incrementally increasing.
why would a money management team have an intuition to "GO BIG?" they don't know anything about team reports, injuries, player details, fixes,...all they do is look at your weekly statementsComment -
Regardless, plays you chase are not LOCK plays whether you add them to your record or not. That's common sense. LOCK plays are your plays of the week, your surest bets, not bets that at the last second you show interest because you were down for the week
Um they are going big off analyst projections. In case you haven't noticed, my analysts have correctly projected how well I will do for a given week very accurately. They are projecting a good week. My money management team's goal is to maximize profit. (And minimize losses) Well, based on analyst projections, they are going BIG this week.Originally posted by dugdogg
It's logic.
High Analyst Projections => Winning Plays => Profit => Maximize profit by betting bigger
Simple logical procedure.Comment -
It's not easy to hit high rates like 70+% long-term and make huge profits out of it. One can't do it alone. But with teams filling in gaps needed I can. Remember, I spend only about 15min/day "looking at matchups", rest is handled by my team(s).
Once again, not easy to double bankroll every season (at the minimum), I couldn't do it alone.Comment -
For all sharp or expert ATS cappers. I'm creating an ATS team for myself, if you'd like to join, let me know. Send me a private message with your resume showing how good you are. I'll tell you if you made it or not. But basically, you join, along with many others, and you send me your best picks of the week, and you also grade my picks. More information will be given when you get in.
Expert ML cappers are invited too to the ML team with the same process.
Once I get all my teams together, I will be the best capper ever.
Hurry spots are filling fast!Comment -
best of luck this weekComment -
the rest of the time you are thinking about all the BS responses you give us...
and btw how can anyone project you to have a good week this week when you haven't released your picks???
is the CEO of your "projection team" a coin??? Maybe that shiny quarter is the CEO of your team and you flipped him and heads was a good week, and tails was a decent week....apparently your team can never project you to have a bad week...Comment -
They have all my leans that haven't been released to the press or the public yet. Basically, they are insiders. They know my plays.
Um actually there have been weeks when I have been projected to do not so good. The weeks where I said I wasn't confident? I had low projections from my analysts. That is why I said I wasn't confident. And in fact that turned out to be a bad week. Thursday? I said I had high analyst projections and thus was very confident. Big day. The weekend rolls around. Projections were not very high, but not very low. And besides for that Eagles chase play (which wasn't there around the time of the projections), I finished exactly around where I was projected.
So all in all, you have to listen to your analysts. I'm projected to have a big week. That's why my Money Management team is going in big.
Tail me if you canComment -
Btw Dugdogg, what happened to that 4 team ATS parlay you called me out on?
You said you won for only 3 teams. I don't know how you pushed Rams +3 with Rams winning the game by 3.
Not to mention, I inflate the lines
You never followed up on your parlay analysis. I'm telling you, you are doing way too much doubting.Comment -
I can see why he was skeptical. You posted plays on a parlay and a teaser:I'm not sure if your post was serious. The best lines you found were Bucs +7 and Rams +3, and thats what you booked and you won the parlay on a 2 team parlay?
That is my reaction. 1st of all, even with Rams +3, you WON THAT BET. So how does it pay as a 2 team parlay? So I'm having serious doubts on you making that bet.
2nd of all, this was what I posted
Panthers +10
Bucs +9
Jaguars +7.5
Rams +4
I have already listed the book I bet with. GREEK. I use their same lines.
Here was their lines precisely at the time I made this post
Rams +4
Bucs +9
Panthers +10
Jaguars +7.5
Go look at the line history if you don't believe me.
1 more thing, the lowest I've seen that Bucs line has been +7.5 (Still would've won), and the Rams +3.5 (Still easily would've won), so not sure where you are betting, where you actually PUSHED betting on the RAMS LMAO.
And please tell me your post was not serious
2 Team Teaser (7 points)
Buccaneers +14.5
Rams +10.5
Risk 10 to Win 7.5
Panthers +10
Bucs +9
Jaguars +7.5
Rams +4
See the discrepancy? In your 7 pt teaser, you got the Bucs at +7.5 and the Rams at +3.5, while in your parlay you got the Bucs at +9 and Rams +4.Comment -
But either way, they are both WINS. And I still don't see any way possible Rams +3, +3.5, +4, I don't care which line you have for the Rams, how do they PUSH winning by 3 points.Can you explain that one?
I've already posted line histories. And at the time I made that post, that is what ATS parlay I booked. So no questions asked.
People are just always doubting. ssk you did not win Rams +3, you pushed it because the Rams won by 3 points.Seriously? And I thought I was new to betting.
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This is the stupidest thread i've ever read on SBR forum.Comment -
Anyways, moving on
I will post some of my stronger leans later today. I will hope to get the LOCK approval for the NE bet from my LOCK team as we meet later tonight. And I might have another lock as well.Comment -
People still ragging on you SSK?Comment -
Honestly man... No one cares who you are meeting with or the process of deciding your plays.
You get a lot of haters because of your "team(s)" and honestly people just want the picks not who you are meeting with.
Its great that you put something together that works for you the way it does though. But you just draw unneeded attention to yourself from a bunch of idiots on the forum posting things about your different team(s).Comment
