SSK's NFL Thread

[Full Time Hobo]

I like all the picks.


I've said for a while, the Cardinals I think are the worst team in the NFL. Why not? They have no defense, no passing game with their QBs, and no running game. What does this team have that can win a game? Nothing. I'm just a little cautious because it is in Arizona, but really, both the Seahawks and the 49ers have come here and blown out Arizona. This play might be upgraded to a lock soon.


To me Ravens have played better than the Steelers so far, and they are a strong home team. With those 2 said, I expect them to win it. It remains to be seen by how much they actually win though.

One thing about the Seahawks, they dominate weak teams and get dominated by good teams. Panthers suck. It's in Seattle. No way Seattle loses this, it is desperation mode for Seattle right now.

Saints are playing their best right now. Bengals just suck. I fully expect Saints to win easily. And yes, Manning is Manning, and you better believe he will rout Dallas this Sunday.


Basically, they are all winning plays

I agree with everything you say.
But be careful of locking the Rams.
Bradford had an awesome game last week passing the ball but the Rams running game has not been too impressive the last few games. Cards thrive off of turnovers and if Bradford is airing it out all day there is definitely more opportunity for picks.
Keep in mind what the cards did to the saints earlier in the year when Brees was airing it out all day in Arizona.

And as a long time Raven fan I can tell you I have never watched games more vicious then Ravens v Steelers. they bring out the best in one another and its a very intense rivalry. Ravens may be playing better and you may have gotten a decent line considering Raperburger is a little banged up but this game I feel is a coin flip...

[ssk13809]

I agree with everything you say.
But be careful of locking the Rams.
Bradford had an awesome game last week passing the ball but the Rams running game has not been too impressive the last few games. Cards thrive off of turnovers and if Bradford is airing it out all day there is definitely more opportunity for picks.
Keep in mind what the cards did to the saints earlier in the year when Brees was airing it out all day in Arizona.

And as a long time Raven fan I can tell you I have never watched games more vicious then Ravens v Steelers. they bring out the best in one another and its a very intense rivalry. Ravens may be playing better and you may have gotten a decent line considering Raperburger is a little banged up but this game I feel is a coin flip...

But the thing is, those TOs were just luck. They've played other pass happy offenses lately and haven't forced TOs. Seattle comes to mind twice. Seriously, the Cardinals offensive line sucks as well, and the Rams have one of the better defensive lines as well.


Honestly besides lucky TOs saving the Cardinals, the Cardinals have no chance to win this game.



My Rams -3 is a LOCK. I already got LOCK approval last night. So it's official.


So multiple locks this week. My score prediction?



Rams 24-10

[Surtainly]

Do you ever defy your lock team? Just curious. Seems as though you considered it here..

[ssk13809]

Do you ever defy your lock team? Just curious. Seems as though you considered it here..

What do you mean? I pick the game 1st. And then take it to the LOCK team to see if it actually is a LOCK or not. If it isn't, its not a LOCK, if it is, its a LOCK. Its not that they come to with a LOCK pick. They just give me the LOCK stamp of approval. So if anyone would be defied it would be me. And yes I have been. WAS last week is an example.

[ssk13809]

Since I have 3.1 units left to wager, adding a quick bet, I don't like the Cheifs as much as I thought. I kind of regret taking them in the Philly teaser. Once again, bet that way too early. So this is kind of an insurance bet.

Broncos +370
Seahawks -255
Packers -450
Chargers -600

Risk 3.1 to Win 25.8

So basically, just in case Cheifs lose, I get what I lost. If Cheifs win, great, only lose 3 units out of the 25 I was getting.

[dugdogg]

packers ML has come down a LOT the past day or so...what gives...ppl dont honestly think the 49ers will come to GB and win do they??

[Full Time Hobo]

Why dont you parlay all of your locks?

Good luck man.
Dont like arguing but liking the picks regardless.

[shaggy3000]

Anyways back to football. Will post my plays once each page so we stay on task.

Official Week 13 Play Card

2 Team Teaser (6 points) Eagles -2 Cheifs -2 Risk 27.5 to Win 25 Patriots -175 ML Risk 26.2 to Win 15 Patriots -3 ATS Risk 18.8 to Win 15 Rams -3 ATS Risk 18 to Win 15 Seahawks -6 ATS Risk 16.5 to Win 15 Ravens -150 ML Risk 7.5 to Win 5 3 Team Teaser (6 points) Saints -0.5 Colts +0.5 Seahawks pk Risk 25 to Win 45 3 Team ML Parlay Eagles -375 Chargers -600 Packers -525 Risk 15 to Win 11.4 3 Team ML Parlay Colts -245 Chiefs -430 Chargers -600 Risk 10 to Win 10.3 ATS Parlay Saints -6.5 Colts -5.5 Seahawks -6 Patriots -3 (-125) Rams -3 (-130) Ravens -3 Risk 4 to Win 173.2 3 Team Teaser (6.5 Points) Rams +3.5 Patriots +3 Ravens +3.5 Risk 10 to Win 16 Have any questions about any of the picks let me know. But like I said, with high analyst projections, MM team going in hard. Should be a huge weekend. I'll be surprised to lose any of these bets (except maybe ATS 6 team parlay lol)

so your approved LOCK on the Pats your only betting $15 on? a little weak for something that is 7-0 dont you think? when the seahawks and rams arent LOCKS and youre risking as much....

[Full Time Hobo]

so your approved LOCK on the Pats your only betting $15 on? a little weak for something that is 7-0 dont you think? when the seahawks and rams arent LOCKS and youre risking as much....

Hes working with what he has.
Read back a few pages and everything is explained.

[ssk13809]

so your approved LOCK on the Pats your only betting $15 on? a little weak for something that is 7-0 dont you think? when the seahawks and rams arent LOCKS and youre risking as much....

Its not $15. It's 15 units, which is about 8% of my bankroll. But I also got a straight ML play on it, and I don't for SEA and STL. So that is much more than 8%. Ultimately, a big bet.

And remember, Rams are a LOCK too. And I was 7-0 last year. 4-0 so far in this thread.

[ssk13809]

packers ML has come down a LOT the past day or so...what gives...ppl dont honestly think the 49ers will come to GB and win do they??

How is that even possible? 49ers pass defense sucks, and Packers all they do is pass. And the 49ers just lost their best offensive players and normally play bad on the road. Packers defense is playing at their very best and play really good at home.



Like how is it even possible 49ers win. I suppose lucky TOs and Special Teams play, which happens more often when you are at home rather the road anyways, but Offense + Defense the 49ers have no chance.

[ssk13809]

Anyways

Let's get this winning weekend kicked off here tonight in Philadelphia


This will be a key win for me. The Eagles should score all day on Houston. And their defense is good enough to get stops. Honestly, Houston doesn't have a chance in stopping Philadelphia.



Final Score: Eagles 37-24

[Full Time Hobo]

Good luck tonight.
Teased the Eagles with the over.


Gotta ask if youre going to ride the Rivers bandwagon this month seeing as he is Mr December

[ssk13809]

Good luck tonight.
Teased the Eagles with the over.


Gotta ask if youre going to ride the Rivers bandwagon this month seeing as he is Mr December

We'll see. I got the Chargers in some ML parlays this week that should be "guarantee" wins.

[jas19illini]

I like the picks ssk. Also enjoy what Full Time Hobo is contributing. Good info, and seeing you two bounce angles and thoughts off each other is really insightful. I'll be following for sure.

Here's a question for you guys. What do you make of the Bears line this week? I saw it at -5.5 before the news about Hill, now its -5 after the news breaks and we hear Stanton is starting. Seems to be the opposite of what we would expect to happen.

[ssk13809]

I like the picks ssk. Also enjoy what Full Time Hobo is contributing. Good info, and seeing you two bounce angles and thoughts off each other is really insightful. I'll be following for sure.

Here's a question for you guys. What do you make of the Bears line this week? I saw it at -5.5 before the news about Hill, now its -5 after the news breaks and we hear Stanton is starting. Seems to be the opposite of what we would expect to happen.

Really? I thought it was like -4.5 or -3.5 before the news. I'm pretty sure it was.


But the Bears ML is the play here. If I had more units I would've played them for sure. Lions find a way to lose, and either way I think Bears will win easily. The odds aren't too bad even after injury last time I checked. But I like too play ML often anyways. Teams play to win not cover the spread.

[jas19illini]

Really? I thought it was like -4.5 or -3.5 before the news. I'm pretty sure it was.


But the Bears ML is the play here. If I had more units I would've played them for sure. Lions find a way to lose, and either way I think Bears will win easily. The odds aren't too bad even after injury last time I checked. But I like too play ML often anyways. Teams play to win not cover the spread.

You might be right about the line. I just remember seeing it at -5.5 then it was taken off the books, then it came back at -5. Either way i like the ML as well.

[ssk13809]

Eagles winning sets me up for the weekend good



I now have Cheifs -2 at -120 for a 20+ unit profit, so basically the Cheifs win. And JUST in case they lose, if the Seahawks/Packers/Chargers (All 3 winners) win their game SU, I still get the 20+ unit profit. So it's a good set-up by my pick management team. Very high probability I will get a strong start this Sunday.

Final Score: Eagles 37-24

Man I'm pretty good at predicting final scores. 2nd time in a row I was 3 or less than 3 total points off.

[ssk13809]

On to Sunday!

[ssk13809]

Once again posting my plays every page just so people can see them and they don't get lost.

Official Week 13 Play Card

2 Team Teaser (6 points)
Eagles -2
Cheifs -2
Risk 27.5 to Win 25

Patriots -175 ML
Risk 26.2 to Win 15

Patriots -3 ATS (LOCK)
Risk 18.8 to Win 15

Rams -3 ATS (LOCK)
Risk 18 to Win 15

Seahawks -6 ATS
Risk 16.5 to Win 15

Ravens -150 ML
Risk 7.5 to Win 5

3 Team Teaser (6 points)
Saints -0.5
Colts +0.5
Seahawks pk
Risk 25 to Win 45

3 Team ML Parlay
Eagles -375
Chargers -600
Packers -525
Risk 15 to Win 11.4

3 Team ML Parlay
Colts -245
Chiefs -430
Chargers -600
Risk 10 to Win 10.3

4 Team Teaser (6.5 Points)
Rams +3.5
Patriots +3
Ravens +3.5
Packers -3
Risk 10 to Win 25

ATS Parlay
Saints -6.5
Colts -5.5
Seahawks -6
Patriots -3 (-125)
Rams -3 (-130)
Ravens -3
Risk 4 to Win 173.2




Once again, if anyone has any questions about any of these picks let me know. They are all VERY strong, and I will convince you of the same.

[Full Time Hobo]

Nice start to the week.
Keep the momentum going into the weekend.
Looking for huge profits this week

[ssk13809]

Nice start to the week.
Keep the momentum going into the weekend.
Looking for huge profits this week

What are the odds I don't CASH in 20+ units now that the Eagles have won.

I need EITHER

Cheifs -2
OR
Seahawks/Packers/Chargers SU wins (And DEN doesn't lose by 1 exactly lol)

Remember, it's an OR statement. So if either one of them happen, I get 20+ unit profit. I'm very confident SEA, GB, and SD win. And KC -2? Well I hope so, they are what -450 ML, they should win period.

[Full Time Hobo]

Better hope underdogs don't get any of that "Luck" you always talk about.
And Denver can be a little scary but KC should be able to pull through since they can actually run the ball and Denver cant stop anything

[ssk13809]

Better hope underdogs don't get any of that "Luck" you always talk about.
And Denver can be a little scary but KC should be able to pull through since they can actually run the ball and Denver cant stop anything

Well that and it's in KC. Usually the home team is luckier than the road team. Besides, KC is already a strong home team (while Denver a weak road team). So odds are definitely in my favor. Even if a miracle occurs, I don't see GB, SEA, or SD losing.

[dugdogg]

why dont you have RAMS ML if they are a LOCK??

[ssk13809]

why dont you have RAMS ML if they are a LOCK??

1) I have no bankroll
2)

All my LOCK plays I bet ATS + ML. But you're right this is stupid. From on now, LOCK is only a LOCK if I say its a LOCK and it has LOCK approval from my LOCK team. LOCK that.

3) They are an ATS lock. Why bet ML?

4) All of the above

[franklt]

very huge card. Good strat. GL

[NostraDanUS]

go to islandcappers.com

they have a banner for free $100 in bet money, no strings attached at oddsmakers.com

[Tree Rollins]

BB, You think you're doing people a favor by being an auditor? What SBR PRECISELY doesn't need is another auditor like you. Folks like you, who think they are well-intention, go from thread to thread to crap. To find the flaws in someone else's picking style, money management, or whether they are accounting for juice or not. The result? Some of the best cappers get tired of dealing with crap, and they stop trying to help!!!! I'm sure you don't share my view, but do you see why this is a problem?

You're exactly right. BetterBizness is a well-known troll. Pay him no mind.

SSK, keep up the good work, good luck this weekend.

[BetterBizness]

You're exactly right. BetterBizness is a well-known troll. Pay him no mind.

SSK, keep up the good work, good luck this weekend.

3 days after the discussion has moved about 10 notches you need to pipe in your drivel... WD

Classy as always shrub...

[ssk13809]

Man can't wait for Sunday


Game I am most worried about is Broncos at Cheifs. I know I have KC at -2, but to be honest, that is my biggest worry right now. I bet that way too early, and Broncos ML play has good value.

[tad0matic]

Ravens -3 seems to be risky pick to me. If your leaning Ravens why not buy .5 to eliminate overtime push? I took Pitt +3 but it was early, and on a parlay.

[ssk13809]

Ravens -3 seems to be risky pick to me. If your leaning Ravens why not buy .5 to eliminate overtime push? I took Pitt +3 but it was early, and on a parlay.

Well I have 3 bets on BAL. A ML, a +3.5 teaser, and then the -3. The -3 is part of a large high risk ATS, which most likely wont hit anyways. So in a way, I am not really leaning strong on -3 ATS.

[The J-Dizzle]

I like your picks but one that I don't like is Seahawks, they havn't been good to me and I think they are worse than their record. With the line going from 6 to 4.5 now my concerns seems right, I think Carolina can be competitive. Seattle hasn't really dominated any team, they have just been dominated. Just don't trust these guys to dominate a Panthers team that showed alot againts Browns. BOL to you though, it's not like I'm putting money on Panthers..

I'm on Rams-3, Pats-3 and I also have Eagles-3+Chiefs-3. I'm leaning Rodgers over 265 passing yards and I'm also liking Jaguars ML (Titans suck right now?).

Go Bucs tomorrow

[drukes1234]

Hey man, what's your LOCK record to date?