LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[azplaya]

That doesn't make sense. Vegas doesn't know the outcome of a game, like a card room doesn't know the river. The house profits because winners pay for their service.

So you implying that a sports book only makes money off the vig similar to how a poker room makes money off the rake? That doesn't seem correct

[lakerboy]

hey lb , where do you get all the info , said that all the money going to carolina coming amd all most won the game , that was alsome lb.

09/26 18:33 +13 -104 / -13 -104
09/26 20:33 +14 -104 / -14 -104
09/26 20:34 +13½ -104 / -13½ -104
09/27 06:32 +13½ -107 / -13½ -101
09/27 13:01 +13½ -108 / -13½ +100
09/27 13:05 +13½ -106 / -13½ -102
09/27 13:39 +13½ -107 / -13½ -101
09/27 13:44 +13½ -108 / -13½ +100
09/28 07:53 +13½ -107 / -13½ -101
09/28 08:34 +13½ -108 / -13½ +100
09/28 17:16 +13½ -105 / -13½ -103
09/28 17:17 +13½ -102 / -13½ -106
09/28 18:15 +13½ -104 / -13½ -104
10/01 21:15 +13½ -106 / -13½ -102
10/01 23:00 +13½ -110 / -13½ +102
10/01 23:01 +13½ -114 / -13½ +105
10/01 23:09 +13½ -115 / -13½ +106
10/02 08:06 +13½ -113 / -13½ +104
10/02 12:38 +13½ -110 / -13½ +102
10/02 13:44 +13½ -115 / -13½ +106
10/02 13:44 +13½ -116 / -13½ +107
10/02 14:13 +13½ -115 / -13½ +106
10/02 14:56 +13½ -116 / -13½ +107
10/02 15:25 +13 -110 / -13 +102
10/02 23:29 +13 -109 / -13 +101
10/03 04:26 +13 -110 / -13 +102
10/03 10:30 +13 -109 / -13 +101
10/03 10:45 +13 -110 / -13 +102
10/03 11:27 +13 -112 / -13 +104
10/03 12:03 +13 -115 / -13 +106
10/03 12:13 +12½ -110 / -12½ +102
10/03 12:15 +12½ -113 / -12½ +104
10/03 12:35 +12½ -111 / -12½ +103
10/03 12:42 +12½ -107 / -12½ -101
10/03 12:45 +12½ -104 / -12½ -104
10/03 12:56 +12½ -105 / -12½ -103
10/03 13:00 +12½ -108 / -12½ +100

09/27 11:59 +569 / -700
09/27 13:02 +548 / -670
09/27 13:06 +555 / -680
09/27 13:44 +548 / -670
09/28 02:03 +609 / -757
09/28 07:54 +597 / -740
09/28 17:17 +618 / -770
10/01 23:03 +601 / -745
10/02 13:44 +578 / -712
10/02 13:47 +562 / -690
10/03 11:49 +534 / -650
10/03 12:03 +512 / -620
10/03 12:43 +534 / -650

[lakerboy]

To those that think books want even action on all games you need to reevaluate your thinking. Books set certain lines to get action on one side. Tonight is one of those games.It doesnt mean the pats dont win. THe books gamble as well you know.

[million2one]

Dolphins and the Under are what the books will need tonight.. However I feel like they won't hit both LB

They need the Dolphins way more then they need the O/U so i think I might just stick with the dolphins tonight..

if the o/u drops another .5 or 1pt.. or they start offering + money on it.. i am will take the under and maybe buy half a point..




if you aren't truly a gut player.. but are actually trying to side with vegas in order to make money in the long run.. then Miami would be the play here.. people like LB and I try to play as the house.. and go after the games vegas needs the most.. as they hit at a nice clip..

Thanks for the input and I really value yours and LB's opinion as you've proven yourself for some time.
I am on board with the long term strategy and understand the odds and probabilities, but how do you know what games Vegas needs the most?

[tombrady]

THANKS LB., AM GOING WITH YOU TONIGHT.

[tony_come]

FYI Public liking Miami

[lakerboy]

Thanks for the input and I really value yours and LB's opinion as you've proven yourself for some time.
I am on board with the long term strategy and understand the odds and probabilities, but how do you know what games Vegas needs the most?

TV games and games with big public teams like New England/Indy etc. People bet tv games no matter what and most times they have no edge but if you take Mia tonight you have the EDGE. You cant lay points with the pats on the road until they prove themselves. Books are still using NEw ENg as a past public perception. This is not the same team from the early 2000's. There defense is young and will be worn down and melt in the heat tonight.

[I am Happy]

Has LB posted units wagered on the Phins tonight?

[bengals]

BOL tonight!

[Wilforth]

I think both Miami and Under will hit.

[vchan_2005]

When LB and Paco pick against each other, its a coin flip indeed or inni minni minie moe.. :-) Good luck, everyone. I like the over and sticking with that.

[rallymonkey]

will probably roll with the initial fins lean but this is definitely not the game to go big on...fishy line, plus brady and the offense can still cover a spread if miami makes a few mistakes. but so far, on paper, it looks like theres more value in miami.

ill wait for bills +1 vs jax next week

[lakerboy]

Has LB posted units wagered on the Phins tonight?

No i have no play so far. I have to wait this one out. I think the Late money will be telling.

[tombrady]

I think both Miami and Under will hit.

[No coincidences]

FYI Public liking Miami

[Tommy_de1st]

Patriots went from being favs -1 to dogs +1. They are +1 @-105 at Pinny right now. Are bookies begging us to take Pats?

I wouldnt take MIA -1 because i can get +1 and pk. There is no value in NE ML. Books dont give games like this away . THey have had time to prepare for this and the line is sharp as hell. Books are beggin for you to take NE ML. Thats why it is so cheap at -105 or so. Pats are not a good road team.

That's what i thought so

[8ArIvd5]

To those that think books want even action on all games you need to reevaluate your thinking. Books set certain lines to get action on one side. Tonight is one of those games.It doesnt mean the pats dont win. THe books gamble as well you know.

So in the long run it's profitable to fade when the public's 60% or higher? Regardless of RLM?

[big0mar]

So in the long run it's profitable to fade when the public's 60% or higher? Regardless of RLM?

No, because you don't know how much money that other 40% is accounting for. Its more about following the lines than the %.

[nikevols]

pats big time

[tony_come]

FYI public liking Miami

[mandude]

FYI public liking Miami

I don't see where you're seeing the public likes Mia. Everywhere I look shows about 60/40 in favor of NE. I think it's split pretty even on the SBR board from what I can tell so I'm not sure what you see.

[BL]

it's no coinflip as long as Patriots win by 7+

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

You answered my question that I was trying to ask. I completely 100% agree with you. Vegas sets these lines with whatever information is available to them. We as gamblers pick a side on either a team, total, prop, etc. LB said it, Vegas gambles also!!

[Goat Milk]

good luck today LB. Yesterday could have been an epic day if seattle won for me. Still was profitable though.

The pats suck on the road, Miami is one of the toughest places to play at night. But Sanchez had little trouble exposing that Miami secondary.......and we are talking about Brady. I'm not betting against Brady right here.

Looking at this total some more though

[sjm5122]

The thing I always try to remember is that Vegas has a lot more on the line than I do. As much as I would like to think I might know what is going to happen or who should cover, Vegas knows more. For this reason the hints given by line movement are much more important to me than my handicapping of a game. just my opinion though

[kmarinouofm]

Thanks for the input and I really value yours and LB's opinion as you've proven yourself for some time.
I am on board with the long term strategy and understand the odds and probabilities, but how do you know what games Vegas needs the most?

as LB states.. Any Primetime TV event.. MNF , Sunday NIght Football. Any NFL Thursday night game, the 3 NFL thanksgiving games. WED, THURS, FRIDAY NIght college football games.. NBA Playoffs, MLB Playoffs, NFL Playoffs, Bowl Games, NBA Finals, MLB world Series, SuperBowl, NCAA March Madness.

These are the games.. vegas is the sharpest on.. and the games I hit at an incredible clip and make probably 85% of my money

TV games and games with big public teams like New England/Indy etc. People bet tv games no matter what and most times they have no edge but if you take Mia tonight you have the EDGE. You cant lay points with the pats on the road until they prove themselves. Books are still using NEw ENg as a past public perception. This is not the same team from the early 2000's. There defense is young and will be worn down and melt in the heat tonight.

any team with the word "new york" or "boston" in it.. laker games, etc..etc..

[kmarinouofm]

i also think all the squares are going to tease the hell out of this game

something like pats +7 or +8 with the over 41.

with that being said..

Pats 17

Dolphins 28

[kmarinouofm]

LB what has more value to you..


x +1 -109 or y -1 +101 ?? Teams don't matter in my question..

+1 -109 right?

[lakerboy]

lb what has more value to you..


X +1 -109 or y -1 +101 ?? Teams don't matter in my question..

+1 -109 right?

-1+101.

[Goat Milk]

well just because big money poured in like that on that car ml they are more often than not just scalps. so for me i look at line movement just a bit i am no expert like you but i'm sure you know how to sort which are scalps and which are not because you can't base a pick of an arbed side they are just looking to arb at the right time and don't care which side wins

[m3xtreme]

LB great info here, really learning a lot from your line moving information.. would like to continue to hear more of what you all have to say. Again great stuff!!

GL tonight !!!

[Goat Milk]

Vegas thinks Miami will win for sure

[lakerboy]

Goat i hear what you are saying but in this particular case there was never a chance to scalp that ML at pinny.

[kmarinouofm]

-1+101.

hmm i guess i see it both ways.. idk.. just wondering..

[$Burm$]

FYI Public liking Miami

http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

public isnt on the phins