LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

sapidoc · 10-04-10, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Vegas thinks Miami will win for sure

Vegas just wants the sharp money tonight. Time to collect that sharp $ and cut a check from it to pay the public?

Goat Milk · 10-04-10, 05:07 PM

Paco with 5k on the Pats

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

Vegas just wants the sharp money tonight. Time to collect that sharp $ and cut a check from it to pay the public?

maybe.. book have been cleaning up since week 1 in both NCAA and NFL..

it's possible..

the bookies will tell us everything 10 mins before game time..

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:11 PM

haven't seen a game like this in a while

fins -1 +101 at pinny

Fins Pk -110 at bookmaker

Fins +1 -110 at the greek..

everyone has their own opinion it seems

broadway6 · 10-04-10, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

maybe.. book have been cleaning up since week 1 in both NCAA and NFL..

it's possible..

the bookies will tell us everything 10 mins before game time..

broadway6 · 10-04-10, 05:14 PM

i need to make an account at bodog....only book i have found that is not -1 or pk.

lakerboy · 10-04-10, 05:21 PM

Some things to consider

Miami +0.5 1st qtr at pinny is -168
Miami +0.5 1st hf at pinny is -134
Miami -0.5 1st hf at pinny is +113

The huge juice on the first qtr doesnt neccesarily mean that Miami covers that qtr. Pinny is trying to get the sharps to stay away on that one imo.

JR007 · 10-04-10, 05:24 PM

"All three of the Patriots games this year have gone over the posted total (two of them went way over) and, as we all know, Monday Night football games are on an OVER run of 22-14-1 dating back over the past two-plus seasons. The OVER is also 7-1-1 in the Dolphins last home games and 12-5 in their last 17 following a SU loss"

Their defense is allowing an average of 27.3 points per game along the way,(Patriots)

New England has allowed at least 24 points in all three games thus far, including allowing 28 points in their only road game."

lakerboy · 10-04-10, 05:26 PM

Cant see why the over is the play. Too many stats support it making the under more logical to me.

lakerboy · 10-04-10, 05:28 PM

Also noticed that when the line came out at 46 the original move was to 45 at most shops.

sportcap · 10-04-10, 05:28 PM

Hey JR - matchbook lines were very telling in a lot of games yesterday. Do you see anything in their lines for tonights game?

JR007 · 10-04-10, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by sportcap

Hey JR - matchbook lines were very telling in a lot of games yesterday. Do you see anything in their lines for tonights game?

Be honest dude...I did not even look at matchbook yesterday......still "Green" in that area of expertise......I let LB and gang tell me what shops to watch

....I

JoMoney2785 · 10-04-10, 05:33 PM

Dolphins tonight for sure. books cleaned up on the public this weekend and this game will be no different

Lockitup1x · 10-04-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by azplaya

So you implying that a sports book only makes money off the vig similar to how a poker room makes money off the rake? That doesn't seem correct

It does in the sense that if a poker room rakes too much the action will dry up.

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Cant see why the over is the play. Too many stats support it making the under more logical to me.

Originally posted by lakerboy

Also noticed that when the line came out at 46 the original move was to 45 at most shops.

sharp books in vegas are selling 47-47.5 still man..

M resort still selling a 47.5

Wynn is still selling a 47

only sharp books i see with a 48 are

Hilton, Pinny, and Greek

Bookmaker just moved to a 48.5

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Some things to consider

Miami +0.5 1st qtr at pinny is -168
Miami +0.5 1st hf at pinny is -134
Miami -0.5 1st hf at pinny is +113

The huge juice on the first qtr doesnt neccesarily mean that Miami covers that qtr. Pinny is trying to get the sharps to stay away on that one imo.

i think miami + anything is solid 1st quarter..

Gee · 10-04-10, 05:37 PM

Some lines are impossible to read. This is a gimme. Siding with who Vegas wants to win is not a hard concept or to follow.

When Vegas puts a line up, I have faith that they factor in all available info, which is more than I have. So when it moves against the public like today - take notice.

Nothing is guaranteed, but Miami are the play. Total teaser under and Miami for me I think for 1x. As well as miami 1x.

Edit: waiting until 10 mins till game time to place bets though.

JR007 · 10-04-10, 05:38 PM

"For the third week in a row and the third time this NFL 2010 season the point-grabbers out there had a real party as pups covered nine of the 13 games played on Sunday (a .692 winning percentage) and so heading into tonight's AFC East showdown game between the New England Patriots at the Miami Dolphins, the NFL Underdogs are a collective 37-21-3 ATS (against the spread) this year and that equates into a mind-numbing .628 winning rate through nearly four full weeks of play.
Here's the week-by-week pointspread rundown this NFL season:
Week 1 Dogs go 7-7-2 spreadwise
Week 2 Dogs register a 10-5-1 spread mark
Week 3 The dogs keep barking while going 11-5 versus the vig
Week 4 So far, NFL dogs are 9-4 with the one MNF game remaining"

broadway6 · 10-04-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Some things to consider

Miami +0.5 1st qtr at pinny is -168
Miami +0.5 1st hf at pinny is -134
Miami -0.5 1st hf at pinny is +113

The huge juice on the first qtr doesnt neccesarily mean that Miami covers that qtr. Pinny is trying to get the sharps to stay away on that one imo.

i have -132. guess i need to throw down a dollar

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Some things to consider

Miami +0.5 1st qtr at pinny is -168
Miami +0.5 1st hf at pinny is -134
Miami -0.5 1st hf at pinny is +113

The huge juice on the first qtr doesnt neccesarily mean that Miami covers that qtr. Pinny is trying to get the sharps to stay away on that one imo.

again i see everyone with their own two cents on this.. phoenix group is selling these lines for the quarters

fins -.5 +140 1st q

fins -.5 +105 1st half

fins +.5 -150 2nd quarter

fins +.5 -180 3rd quarter

fins +.5 -170 4th quarter..

sportcap · 10-04-10, 05:41 PM

Since you guys are talking totals - 1st h lines are juicing both team total to go over...Pats O24 -130, Fins O24 -120. Hmmm

Tommy_de1st · 10-04-10, 05:42 PM

If the total line has moved to 48, does this mean that books want us to jump on Under?

broadway6 · 10-04-10, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Also noticed that when the line came out at 46 the original move was to 45 at most shops.

i saw that this morning

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

sharp books in vegas are selling 47-47.5 still man..

M resort still selling a 47.5

Wynn is still selling a 47

only sharp books i see with a 48 are

Hilton, Pinny, and Greek

Bookmaker just moved to a 48.5

BP and 5dimes are 48.5

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:45 PM

i have -115 on both those overs still

lakerboy · 10-04-10, 05:45 PM

im not sold on a 3 point swing on a total. thats way too much imo. the orginal line cant be that far off. if you can get 48.5 the under is good imo.

million2one · 10-04-10, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Also noticed that when the line came out at 46 the original move was to 45 at most shops.

Thanks guy for the helpful hints. Much appreciated.

So would you say that most sharp bettors make their bets when the line first comes out?
And the initial movement of the opening line indicates what side the sharp bettors are on, in the above example LB it would hint at a play for the under?

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

im not sold on a 3 point swing on a total. thats way too much imo. the orginal line cant be that far off. if you can get 48.5 the under is good imo.

yeah exactly.. unless it was weather.. but then it would go the other way no? I am going to call back home to miami.. but i think its clear tonight.. my folks live 2 exits away from the stadium

broadway6 · 10-04-10, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

im not sold on a 3 point swing on a total. thats way too much imo. the orginal line cant be that far off. if you can get 48.5 the under is good imo.

my local has 50

kmarinouofm · 10-04-10, 05:50 PM

Clear Night tonight folks.. weather should not come into play..

lakerboy · 10-04-10, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

my local has 50

you know what to do then.

broadway6 · 10-04-10, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

you know what to do then.

pass

Goat Milk · 10-04-10, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

my local has 50

how sharp is he? My local does things like this during the NBA occasionally. He will change the line 1.5 points at times and about 65% of the time he will still come out ahead with that line change because he knows exactly how people around this area bet. Last time he did this he was offering the Lakers +4 or or something in one of those lakers road games in the finals and he had 80% of action on the Lakers.

I think Boston won that game by like 10.

spud58 · 10-04-10, 05:54 PM

good luck mah n*gga

latinrus · 10-04-10, 05:57 PM

So over or under? I have 48.5 and 49.5.

HOT WINGS · 10-04-10, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

im not sold on a 3 point swing on a total. thats way too much imo. the orginal line cant be that far off. if you can get 48.5 the under is good imo.

Yeah I just took the under 48.5 at squaredog and think I am going to take Mia +1 here soon. One thing I noticed in prop bet area is that the line for under 5.5 tds is -135 and under 3.5 fg is -160. Am I over thinking here that this tips to the under game total being the play? Ethier way I am on under. GL on your plays tonight.