LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[ronjon619]

2 weeks in a row the SD total was right on the money. ATS is a different story.

[steelers7889]

sf all in

[lakerboy]

I think its time to the Falcons earn some respect. Surprised you went against the Birds at home with all their success at the Georgia Dome.

not a big deal actually. the falcons have had more flukey home wins than alot of teams over the last 2 years but i give them credit- they find ways. gb wasnt a bad play.

[JR007]

Interesting how greek,bookmaker,and pinny lined up behind Miami yesterday

[franklt]

I too like San Francisco. Good luck

[A's Fan]

LB how come no more NBA thread?

[opie1988]

LB-

What's the temp in Toronto today? Make it in Fahrenheit if you can....I can never figure out Celsius!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

not a big deal actually. the falcons have had more flukey home wins than alot of teams over the last 2 years but i give them credit- they find ways. gb wasnt a bad play.

Have to disagree with you. When you leave Matt Ryan time on the clock he finds away to come back and win. He's down it more then a few times already so I wouldn't call it so much "fluke".

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

LB- What's the temp in Toronto today? Make it in Fahrenheit if you can....I can never figure out Celsius!

Its about 43 F right now with rain when I woke up this morning. Going to be a shitty day.

[JR007]

think 49ers poised to make a late run..??? NFC west wide open

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

think 49ers poised to make a late run..??? NFC west wide open

Without Gore is going to be a lot tougher. Huge blow for the 9ers.

[opie1988]

Have to disagree with you. When you leave Matt Ryan time on the clock he finds away to come back and win. He's down it more then a few times already so I wouldn't call it so much "fluke".

Thanks for the weather update, D3. Your Maple Leafs spanked my Stars last week. I think it did them some good though. They've won 4 in a row since that loss, including sweeping the Blues 2 nights in a row. Kari Lehtonen is damn good. He stays healthy....Stars make the playoffs. Thank God we got rid of Turco. They're already sick of him in Chicago.

I totally agree with your take on the Falcons. Matty Ice being undefeated at home is no fluke. He's a stud.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Thanks for the weather update, D3. Your Maple Leafs spanked my Stars last week. I think it did them some good though. They've won 4 in a row since that loss, including sweeping the Blues 2 nights in a row. Kari Lehtonen is damn good. He stays healthy....Stars make the playoffs. Thank God we got rid of Turco. They're already sick of him in Chicago. I totally agree with your take on the Falcons. Matty Ice being undefeated at home is no fluke. He's a stud.

You planning on visiting Toronto or something? Whats up with asking for a weather report. I don't even want to talk about the Leafs until they're able to put together back to back wins more then once this year. That team is supposed to be getting better but thus far this year there in the same spot as last year roughly. Matt Ryan is a stud aslong as someone knows LB is just upset that Matty Ice drove and put his team in field position that led to the game winning FG and fuked his Packers ML bet lol. Just kidding,

[JR007]

Without Gore is going to be a lot tougher. Huge blow for the 9ers.

Yeah, at first glance that would "appear' to be so.....but this might force Singletary to open it up more..some west coast offense, short passes to backs..etc....great a player as Gore is, they really weren't winning with that game plan....opposing teams have no plan(on film) if he comes up with something radically different...do not see what he has to lose...his job probably on the line.......be interesting to see what they do next game

[lakerboy]

not a big deal actually. the falcons have had more flukey home wins than alot of teams over the last 2 years but i give them credit- they find ways. gb wasnt a bad play.

Have to disagree with you. When you leave Matt Ryan time on the clock he finds away to come back and win. He's down it more then a few times already so I wouldn't call it so much "fluke".

[ronjon619]

whats the play for Thursday?

[JR007]

"THURSDAY NIGHT NFL
HOUSTON AT PHILADELPHIA: The opener of Philly -7 jumped up to -8. Sharps think Michael Vick is likely to have a field day against that soft Houston defense. Plus, we've seen many Southern teams have trouble in recent years when travelling up North in December. I do think some of this was 'position-taking' however. Sharps believe that squares (the general public) will want the TV home favorite (which they usually do), so laying 7 points set up a possible middle bet should the line move to -8.5 or -9. So, don't assume this is 100% love for the Eagles. Sharps who liked he Eagles AND position-takers bet early. Those who prefer Houston will wait until game day to see how high the line goes so they can maximize their win potential. The total is up a tick from 50.5 to 51. Should the weather forecast help defenses, it might come down before kickoff.

COLLEGE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. MIAMI OF OHIO (MAC-Friday): Sharps absolutely LOVED Northern Illinois at the opener of -14. It's all the way up to -18 now...which tells you it was a horrible opener from oddsmakers. Northern's been playing very well this year. Oddsmakers clearly underestimated how much sharps had been paying attention! The total is up from an opener of 51.5 to 54.5. Clearly very strong support for Northern and the Over. If you liked those options yourself, the value may be gone given the big moves that have already taken place. You've got to act EARLY if you're going to bet favorites! We may see some buy back before kickoff for a huge middle. But, many sharps I've talked to are happy with their early positions at -14, -15, etc... When you have a big edge and deep pockets, standing pat can be the best thing.
CENTRAL FLORIDA VS. SMU (CUSA-Saturday): Some support for Central Florida at the opener of -8. We're seeing -9 now. That's probably not position-taking because eight isn't a key number. I will tell you that many sharps like June Jones as an underdog. They won with him over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl last year. They're waiting to see if they can get +10 after public action before stepping in here. The sharps who like Central bet the opener. Those who like SMU are waiting.
AUBURN VS. SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC-Saturday): Auburn is up to -6 from -5 on the news that Cam Newton has been cleared to play for the favorite. Sharps who liked Auburn didn't want to bet right away then find out Newton was going to be scratched from the game because of his off-field issues. I'm not getting a strong read here from my discussions with sharps. There's a lot of respect for both sides...and a consensus that Auburn is the better team. I do think some South Carolina money would come in should the number move to seven. Maybe very heavily.
VIRGINIA TECH VS. FLORIDA STATE (ACC-Saturday): We saw interest in Florida State at the opener of +4.5, but that only brought the line down to +4. I believe most sharps had the number at four. They didn't expect the public to come in heavy on Virginia Tech because FSU looked so good on TV last week against Florida. Might as well take the +4.5 if it's not going to +5. To this point, this isn't a game being isolated by sharps for big action as best I can tell. That may change by kickoff, particularly if any news breaks.
OKLAHOMA VS. NEBRASKA (BIG 12-Saturday): We saw another big move here, as sharps believe Taylor Martinez won't be a big contributor for Nebraska because of injuries. Oklahoma opened at -2.5, and is all the way up to -6.5 as I write this. Sportsbooks will be rooting for Nebraska! The Huskers have struggled to do much when Martinez is unable to break long runs. If they fall behind OU's potent attack, things could get ugly. Also...there's some chat about how the Big 12 kept calling penalties on Nebraska in the Texas A&M game a couple of weeks ago. Nebraska is leaving for the Big 10 after this season. Conspiracy theorists bet early figuring there was no way the Big 12 would let Nebraska win this game. Between that and the injuries to Martinez, this line made a huge jump. I do think sharps would start taking the dog at +7 though, because of respect for the Nebraska defense...and the awareness that Bob Stoops of Oklahoma has trouble playing to pointspread expectations in big games. "

[ronjon619]

Teasing the Eagles to under a FG with something else might be the play here. Vick and PHI offense will show up here tonight but by more than a TD is tough. December out doors in PHI and more than a TD is very difficult to do.

PHI -2.5 with the University of Arizona +.5 might be the play.

[broadway6]

loving the over tonight....

[t-wizzle]

Teasing the Eagles to under a FG with something else might be the play here. Vick and PHI offense will show up here tonight but by more than a TD is tough. December out doors in PHI and more than a TD is very difficult to do.

PHI -2.5 with the University of Arizona +.5 might be the play.

I teased the eagles down to 2.5 along with the heat down to 1

[broadway6]

loving the over tonight....

[ronjon619]

I teased the eagles down to 2.5 along with the heat down to 1

good hit wizzle, I died by a hook. Zendejas is a piece of crap

[JR007]

"TWO NFL TEAMS ARE 9-2 TO THE OVER
DO YOU KNOW WHO?
I'm starting to hear more and more talk about Over/Under bets in pro football. I think there are a few reasons for this:
*College is winding down, and squares (the general public) are looking for ways to keep their action going once it falls off the weekend schedule entirely.
*It's been an extreme year for Overs thus far, and word is spreading amongst squares that there's value to be had.
*Oddsmakers are trying to figure out what to do because they've been undershooting the mark in way too many games.
*Sharps are complaining because many of their old school totals approaches aren't working this year.
So, if I'm in conversations with any element of the legal sports betting market right now, the topic eventually turns to what's going on with NFL totals. That means it's time for ME to start talking about totals more in my web articles.
We'll catch up today with team trends. There are a few extremes out there that you may not have noticed.
TEAMS PLAYING OVERS:
9-2: New England and Dallas
8-2: Jacksonville
8-3: NY Jets and Detroit
7-3: Cleveland, Houston, Atlanta, and Arizona
6-3-1: Seattle
That's about a third of the league at 67% or better on Overs results...with nine out of 32 NFL teams at 70% or higher.
So, we're not talking about oddsmakers and the market in general undershooting a couple of teams.
*New England and Dallas play Overs almost every time they take the field! And, Dallas had that low scoring season opener with Washington...meaning they're 90% Overs since then. It's been fairly obvious that New England has a great offense, but a bad garbage time defense since the opening week. Oddsmakers still haven't properly captured that in the numbers.
*The NY Jets are supposed to be a defensive minded team that plays low scoring games because they shut people down, and their offense runs clock. They're priced that way. But, that's NOT what's happening! The defense has some holes in it...and Mark Sanchez is getting some things done in the air.
*Cleveland? Cleveland! How thinks of the Browns as a team that plays high scoring games? Nobody...which is why they're consistently sneaking over low totals thanks to the influence Mike Holmgren has had in putting together an offense.
That's just the top half of the story. If there are just as many teams playing a lot of Unders, then I might be overstating the advantage. Let's see how many extreme Under teams there have been.
2-8: Chicago
3-7: Green Bay
THAT'S IT!
Only two teams have seen Unders in 70% of their games or more, compared to the nine we were looking at with the Overs. Chicago's a surprise because Mike Martz was supposed to create an explosive offense with Jay Cutler at the helm. The offense has been bad, but the defense has been terrific. That's led to a lot of Unders. Green Bay's been forced to change its stripes a bit from early season plans...leading to a team that tries to run out the clock with a lead so they can avoid more injuries.
TWO TEAMS are showing meaningful Under tendencies out of 32. Most of the league is in the hunk between 4-6 and 6-4 percentage-wise. The mistakes that are being made by the market are showing up at the high end of the spectrum.
As you handicap the Sunday and Monday NFL action, I strongly encourage you to look for spots where the market is still lagging reality. You can't do that with New England and Dallas because they've already played their very high scoring Over games for the week! There are other teams the market has been out of synch with. And, we might see some of the 6-4 or 4-6 teams start trending more in their directions here in the final weeks of the season.
I'll talk more about specific situations and tendencies in the coming weeks. For now...start putting totals on your radar more than they have been. There's an exploitable weakness here if you're willing to do the work. I can assure you that the oddsmakers I've been talking with are grateful the public has been focusing on team sides rather than totals thus far. They know the lines haven't been up to snuff."

[ronjon619]

*College is winding down, and squares (the general public) are looking for ways to keep their action going once it falls off the weekend schedule entirely.

*Sharps are complaining because many of their old school totals approaches aren't working this year.

[JR007]

"WHAT SHARPS THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL ACTION
We have a big weekend of NFL action ahead. Let's see what the sharps have been doing with their early week betting. As always, games are presented in rotation order...
BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Support for the Dog and Under at the opening numbers. Buffalo opened at +6½, but is down to +5½ given their strong cover tendencies of the last several weeks. The total opened at 45, but is down to 44 based on Minnesota's more conservative, defensive-minded play last week. Note that Overs have been getting hit hard the past few weeks...so any sharp bet on the Under is actually a very strong opinion.
CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Miami is down a half a point, from an opener of -5½ down to -5. Cleveland has been getting a lot of respect from sharps this year. They like the new look offense and the attitude of the team. They're more fond of Colt McCoy than Jake Delhomme as a dog though, which is why this line didn't come down further. Nothing of interest has happened yet with the total. If I don't mention a total in a game from this point forward, assume that the sharps haven't shown any interest.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Not much happening here because of the quarterback situation for Tennessee. We may see some sharp money hit on game day once the picture is clearer. Tennessee is -3 with a total 43½.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Big support for Kansas City, as an opener of -6½ has jumped all the way to -9. And, no, that's not because Kyle Orton suffered an injury. It was just a very bad opening line. Kansas City has played very well vs. bad defenses, and is now in a revenge against a divisional rival. Sharps loaded up at anything below -9. Should the public drive the line to -10, some of the earliest money may shoot a middle at the 7-10 window. Right now, sharps are happy with their positions. Denver's been fading, and Kansas City has a chip on its shoulder. The total is up a point and a half from 47 to 48½ on the assumption that KC's offense will have another good day.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: Support for the Dog and Under, with Washington +8 dropping to +7, and an opening total of 45½ coming down to 43. Washington has been playing competitive low scoring games, so those openers were a bit of a surprise. Oddsmakers have been overshooting on the NY Giants for a few weeks now. Sharps will keep fading the G-men until they cover. Big move on the Under considering all the Overs we've been having. Washington doesn't play many shootouts.
CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Chicago is up to -5 from -3½ because of the injury to the Detroit quarterback. The Bears will be facing a third-teamer in Drew Stanton. And, they've looked good the last two weeks too. Sharps have always loved this Chicago defense. If Jay Cutler comes around, the sharps will ride the Bears for awhile.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Some support, but not passionate for the Dog and Under. San Francisco opened at +9½, and is down to -9. Sharps apparently don't believe the public will hit the Packers Sunday since SF looked so good this past Monday Night. The total is down to 40½ from 41½. I'm guessing that sharps have been reading weather reports given their new fondness for Unders in the cooler cities. It's been an Over season thus far.
NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Another Northern game where the total has dropped, with an opener of 47 falling to 45. Sometimes I think sportsbooks should just run the weather channel on the big screens along with sports telecasts. Of course, this would help sharps even more...and that's the last thing sportsbooks want to do on Over/Under bets. No move yet on the team side, with New Orleans laying 6½. Usually when a number hangs that close to a key number without moving...sharps prefer the underdog and are hoping public money will give them the extra half point before kickoff. Had the sharps liked New Orleans to win big, they would have jumped in at -6½ because it's right below the key number of seven.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Atlanta opened at -2½, and jumped right to -3, where it's sat ever since. Interesting that sharps didn't like Atlanta at the field goal. They did see value just below that critical number...and they were also sure the public would come in and take the "hot" team that's trying to earn home field through the playoffs. Betting value on favorites tends to disappear quickly in the NFL market.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The total has dropped a point and a half from 46½ down to 45. San Diego isn't a cold weather city, so this may be related to Jason Campbell getting the start at quarterback for the Raiders. San Diego opened at -12½, and got bet up to -13 quickly. That's sharps taking position with a game that may go higher. The public loves to bet San Diego at home because they win so many blowouts. Sharps are hoping for a 12½ to 14 middle opportunity. And, sticking with -12½ with the early bets may not be a bad option considering how well San Diego has been playing lately. You also have the superior team in a revenge spot, which some sharps respect.
CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seattle's been playing so badly lately that sharps had to take Carolina +6½ on the opener. No way the public drives Seattle higher. Take what you can get with a line that should settle closer to +5½ or +5 was the sharp strategy here. Carolina hung tough with Cleveland last week as a road dog...and Cleveland's been playing better than Seattle for much of the year.
DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: I was a bit surprised that an opening line of Indy -5 went up to -5½. The Colts are injured, and not impressing at all as favorites lately. The support didn't continue at 5½, and we're not talking about key numbers here. May have just been a few rogue sharps. I would expect to see some serious Dallas money at +6.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: St. Louis got bet to -3½ as a road favorite from -3. It's important to note that it takes a lot of money to move off a three in Vegas. And...no money came in on the dog after the move! So, that's a very strong endorsement of the Rams at the original price. Support didn't continue at -3½...but the important thing to note is that it wasn't coming in on the dog at +3½ either. The total is up a point from 42 to 43.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore opened at -2½, but moved to -3 very quickly. I think three is the right number based on the competitive series history. Sharps would jump all over Pittsburgh at +3½, and possibly everyone would jump on Baltimore at -2½ (except for basic strategy teaser players, who would max out on Pittsburgh +8½ in two-teamers). I'm surprised it opened below the key number. Early money rectified that.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: We've seen a move from New England -3 to -3½, without countervailing support for the road dog. So, as you've learned already, that's pretty strong support for the Patriots. New England has been playing better ball the past several weeks. But, NYJ usually isn't getting points. I know we're all looking forward to this one".

[JR007]

sharps tend to bet unders

[goduke]

I love these writeups, I know theyre not yours so dont worry. I just like that you post these every week. Thanks JR

[memo99]

any nfl leans yet LB

[LostBankroll]

Nice Jacksonville and Washington writeup!!

[NYSportsGuy210]

Take Rams (-3.5) to cover at Arizona and thank me in the evening.

[ronjon619]

Take Rams (-3.5) to cover at Arizona and thank me in the evening.

that one seems just way too easy. I think the Rams we will win, but 3 and a hook is tough to bet on the road for a rookie QB. AZ STINKS.

[sharper2]

good luck today LB, im liking the under in the detroit game, what about you?

[JR007]

Good luck today

[memo99]

pretty cold in ny liking the under in the skins/giants game

[JR007]

Large off-market off-market lines on the Jax/Tenn /Broncos/Chiefs