You would have to think that NO comes back strong after the OT loss against a rookie QB. I think they are the better play although I do like SD at home against an AZ team that easily could be 0-3 right now.
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I'm going with New Orleans (Packers already used). If you anyone somehow still has the Packers, they are fine to use this week.
I do like SD hosting the Cards as well, if anyone is leaning that way instead I would understand. Some of the benefits of taking the Bolts rather than the Saints are that there is no divisional rivalry between the Bolts and Cards. With the Saints/Panthers there's a historic rivalry and I'm much more wary of strange things happening. Nevertheless, the Saints at home is as solid as it gets and Carolina simply looks like they are going nowhere this year punctuated by the fact that they are starting Claussen. It should be an easy Saints win, but I thought the same about the Bills @ Pats last week and the Pats let the Bills hang around much longer that I'd have liked.Comment -
OPG! What's it gonna be?
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WEEK 1 SURVIVOR PICK
Late pick this week....it was my boys 2nd birthday so little time.
Survivor Week 4
New Orleans
Analysis: New Orleans should have won last week and will be angry, playing at home against a struggling team. The Panthers will need to pound the ball because New Orleans just destroys rookie quarterbacks...ask em.
Trend to consider: The Panthers have just 2 sacks on the season (not a good trend against Brees)
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Wouldn't having the saints later be tremendously valuable considering there are some very difficult weeks aheadComment -
Yeah at first I spotted new orleans for week 11 against seattle but I dont like any of my other choices this week and we will play pitt with roth back in week 11.Comment -
These wins keep getting tougher and tougher. Maybe I shoulda stuck with my gut and took SD. But, a win is a win, I guess.
Week 5 looks like the toughest one so far. None of the games look as easy as weeks 1-4 looked going in.
Ravens looks like the best survivor pick in week 5. Ravens look like they are on championship form, even though I've got a slight tinge that they could let down after an emotional road victory @ Pitts in a crucial battle for the division lead. Nevertheless, the Ravens are coming home to face an inconsistent Denver team also coming off a tough road win. I like the Ravens, facing a non-division foe making that brutal west to east road trip. I feel like the Ravens are getting up to speed on offense, integrating Boldin & Hush effectively and their defense looks as good as ever in recent years. I still feel like the Ravens might be worth saving, but I gotta survive week 5 and gotta use the best team right here and now in a tough survivor week.
The next best option is the Texans hosting the Giants. I do think the Texans should be decent favorites at home to a Giants team that has been shooting themselves in the foot all year. Thing is, I thought the Texans could handle Dallas at home and I was wrong. I see the Giants as a similar team as Dallas, a team that can play when they want to play but seem to have that "fire in the eyes" missing or something, maybe it's coaching, I'm just not sure. In any case, this play is just too risky for survivor purposes, IMHO, because I can't trust the Texans to win at home when I need it and I can't trust the Giants to roll over and play dead when I want them to.
The only other viable option looks like the Jets hosting the Vikings. I still think the Vikings will be weak with the WR woes, but they got the bye week at the right time and Favre maybe got some needed practice reps with whatever they'll be suiting up @ WR until Rice gets back. Maybe Harvin got some time to lick his wounds as well. That's why I'm not jumping all over this play, the Vikings are a tough team needing to get well and they got a bye week to do it. Meanwhile, the Jets are looking like world beaters, taking apart the Pats, Phins, Bills to take hold of the division. I still think the Jets roll here, but I hate betting against Favre, who is the wildcard in all of this. If Favre can fire it up, anything can happen.
These are my thoughts early Monday morning, but I don't have to lock in my pick until kickoff next Sunday. I might reassess everything after the injury reports come out on Thursday, but unless something dramatic comes out during the week inujury-wise, I'm taking the Ravens for week 5.Comment -
Thanks again for the pick OPG!Comment -
That was a close one with the Saints, I was on the Chargers in my survivor pool.Comment -
Smart man. I knew that the Chargers might be safer, but I got seduced by the Saints being 13 pt favs and Bolts were only 9 pt favs. I guess it still worked out, but sheesh I was sweating that one out. You might have a good spot to take the Saints this week if you don't like the Ravens or Colts.
This week the Colts are actually the biggest fav on the board at -8, but there's no way I'm taking them right now with their injuries. KC might be my bet of the week.
Ravens are the 3rd biggest ML favorite on the board, behind the Colts and Saints, so it looks like an easier play than I realized. Ravens seem like a no-brainer. I guess the Bengals are a bigger favorite than I figured, but I'm not really willing to put my survivor season on a team like the Bengals just yet. Ravens are maybe the hottest team in the NFL at this instant, it's the perfect time to take them.Comment -
Whew... i always worry about divisional games. The next few weeks will set us up for the rest of the season so we will need to choose wisely. Will post pick and analysis later.Comment -
I'm leaning towards Atlanta, but am hesitant to go with a road team.Comment -
Survivor Week 5
Indianapolis
Analysis: Peyton Manning will not lose 2 in a row especially at home. Everybody is worried by the loss to Jacksonville but you have to remember that was a division game that meant everything to the Jags. Indy should have won it anyway as his wrs fumbled away possessions. I also think KC is overrated. Always go with the much better qb.
Trends to consider: Indianapolis is 24-5 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992
KC is 1-12 as a road underdog of 7.5-10 points and only 1-7 in weeks 5-9.
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Thanks OPG! points sent
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Good pick OPG. Unfortunately, I do not have IND left. I chose to go with BALT this week. Good luck.Comment -
If you have Indianapolis choose them this week or you may not get a good chance to use them at home.
Here are their home games after this week:
Houston (divisional)
Cincinnati
San Diego
Dallas
Jacksonville (divisional)
Tennessee (divisional)
Tough to use a survivor pick in any of those scenarios.
Also their only easy road game left is at Oakland.
Use them this week or you may lose them in your Survivor pool.Comment -
alot of people will see there pools cut in half this week there is no safe play this week mauahahaha!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Thinking Giants this week.........Comment -
Pittsburgh over Clev, easy when the line is 15.5 but I think Pitt not only wins but covers the line.Comment -
OfficePoolGuy, nice going with Indy last week. It'll be interesting to see how bad me taking the Ravens and passing on the Colts comes back to bite me. If I had to choose, I'd definitely rather have the Ravens than the Colts left to use going forward.
This week my pick is the Steelers. Not much analysis needed. Steelers are the biggest favorite on the board by quite a bit. Giants are viable, but the Lions are pesky and the Giants are psychotic at times. Similar to last week, Steelers might be a better team to save and Giants won't get a better spot to use. But for me at this point, looking ahead and saving teams is still not really a priority for me. Survival is the only thing that matters, so I'll just keep taking the very biggest favorite that I can take and hope that week 12 and onward will take care of itself if and when it comes.
My used teams: Titans, Packers, Pats, Saints, Ravens, SteelersComment -
Be careful just picking teams because they are the biggest favorite (look at how the double digit favorites have done this year...not overwhelming). I also like to stay away from divisional games. Not sure who I am going with yet but I do have a few leans. Will post my pick later in the week.Comment -
Survivor Week 6
I have tossed and turned over this decision and gone back and forth. I REALLY want to take New York Giants this week but I am going with Pittsburgh instead. I hate taking divisional games but this one makes too much sense. I wanted to save Pitt for later but I think I found someone for the week I was going to use Pitt.
Pittsburgh
Analysis: 1) Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the league and is facing a rookie who may not make it in the league. 2) Pitt has won 18 of the last 20 and has blown them out at home the last few years. 3) Clev is 4-33 as an underdog of 10 or more since 1992 4) The Big Ben factor. 5) Clev is really banged up with Peyton Hillis and some of their O-line injured.
Trends to consider: Pittsburgh is 20-6 as a favorite of 10 or more and 7-1 in weeks 5-9 the last three years. Cleveland has not won as an underdog of 10 or more the last 3 years.
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Thanks again OPG! Steelers it is!Survivor Week 6
I have tossed and turned over this decision and gone back and forth. I REALLY want to take New York Giants this week but I am going with Pittsburgh instead. I hate taking divisional games but this one makes too much sense. I wanted to save Pitt for later but I think I found someone for the week I was going to use Pitt.
Pittsburgh
Analysis: 1) Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the league and is facing a rookie who may not make it in the league. 2) Pitt has won 18 of the last 20 and has blown them out at home the last few years. 3) Clev is 4-33 as an underdog of 10 or more since 1992 4) The Big Ben factor. 5) Clev is really banged up with Peyton Hillis and some of their O-line injured.
Trends to consider: Pittsburgh is 20-6 as a favorite of 10 or more and 7-1 in weeks 5-9 the last three years. Cleveland has not won as an underdog of 10 or more the last 3 years.
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I hear ya, man. I still can't believe the Bills gave the Pats a slight scare a few weeks ago. As for the Saints game, I saw that coming but still thought Carolina was terrible enough to go against them and it almost cost me the season. Crazy as it sounds, Pitts is sitting in a similar spot hosting a much more pesky divisional team than the Saints were in hosting Carolina. I'll be the first one to admit that Pitts is no gimme this week.
That said, I thought you'd jump all over the Giants. It's a much better look-ahead pick, plus Giants are hosting a non-divisional opponent. I hope I didn't influence you with my analysis.
If anyone wants to take the Giants this week, it's probably fine, I keep talking about the Lions being pesky, but it seems like they 'hang around' but can't finish, they're a fine team to go against for survival purposes but a good team to take points for a cover.
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I was really torn but the injuries at quarterback, running back and OL and Pittsburgh's record against Cleveland really made me change my mind. Cleveland is really banged up. Look at all the injuries:
Jake Delhomme QB Ankle Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful Robaire Smith DE Back Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful John St. Clair T Ankle Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful Seneca Wallace QB Ankle Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful Peyton Hillis RB Thigh Did Not Participate In Practice Questionable Shaun Rogers DT Elbow Did Not Participate In Practice Questionable Robert Royal TE Shoulder Did Not Participate In Practice Questionable Floyd Womack G Knee Did Not Participate In Practice Questionable Kenyon Coleman DE Knee Limited Participation in Practice Questionable Nick Sorensen S Calf Limited Participation in Practice Questionable Alex Mack C Shoulder Did Not Participate In Practice Probable Joe Thomas T Shin Full Participation in Practice Probable Joshua Cribbs WR Ankle Limited Participation in Practice Probable Abram Elam S Knee Limited Participation in Practice Probable
Without their 2 starting qbs and their best running back I just dont think they stand a chance against a great defense coming off a bye.
That said, New York should also win especially if Calvin Johnson does not play. But I am going with the crowd even though you are right and New York is the better look ahead pick.Comment -
I thought about going with Chicago against Seattle this week but I'm gonna go with the what looks like the popular pick - Steelers.Comment -
thinking Ravens or Broncos for next pick, though the Raiders are unpredictable. Maybe KC?
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Ravens at home against Buffalo look like as good as pick as you'll ever get.Comment -
For me, this week is Seahawks. I already used the Saints and Ravens, otherwise either of those would be a better choice. I feel like Seattle is clicking really well right now and is excellent at home. I think the Cards are still going to have major problems at their QB position. Even though this is a divisional game, I don't feel like Seattle & Arizona has the type of rivalry that is going to boost the road team that much.
My used teams: Titans, Packers, Pats, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, SeahawksComment -
I'm going with Baltimore this week.
Used: Giants, Packers, Bengals, Saints, Colts, Steelers.Comment
