Office Pool Guy's Survivor Thread

[officepoolguy]

There are many different strategies to winning a Survivor Pool...so I do not claim that my strategy is the only one out there but I am going to post my weekly Survivor picks here and anyone interested can follow them.

I have been successful in the past and I want to lay out my strategy so you know if this thread will work for you:

1) I look ahead at the schedule and try to get a "rough" map of my picks. I feel this is the only way to get an advantage late in the Survivor pool. I want to have good teams at the end when it becomes more predictable and others are out of options.

2) I do not always play the home team. Home teams do lose over 40% of the time so I don't automatically pick a home team.

3) I do not always go with the largest favorite. This is the NFL remember.

4) I try to stay away from divisional games and Monday/Thursday games as much as possible.

5) I do research and use trends and statistics.

If you want to know some of my other ideas and strategies you can download a free copy of an e-book I wrote (just let me know).

Anyway, for what it is worth here is my Week 1 Pick, let me know what you think:



WEEK 1 SURVIVOR PICK

Tennessee

Analysis: Tennessee is the better team with the better Running game. Campbell is banged up and in a new system playing on the road.

Trend to consider: Favored Home teams in Week 1 are 73-32 since 2000 and if favored by 6.5 points they are 6-0 since 2001.

[balman]

good call i like that pick...will follow good luck

[low Q]

I just joined a Survivor pool at work. Never heard of them before this week. I like the idea - but was struggling for a system or method. We've got a $10 buy in with about 50 people. Top three pays out and you can buy back in for $20 during first 4 weeks if you blow it. I will check in to see what you have going here. Thanks! Great idea for us new to survivor pools.

Q

[THE HITMAN]

Was looking at TENN myself.

[officepoolguy]

This first week is REALLY tough...but by picking Tennessee you can save a better team for a later week when there are fewer games to pick from.

[officepoolguy]

I just joined a Survivor pool at work. Never heard of them before this week. I like the idea - but was struggling for a system or method. We've got a $10 buy in with about 50 people. Top three pays out and you can buy back in for $20 during first 4 weeks if you blow it. I will check in to see what you have going here. Thanks! Great idea for us new to survivor pools.

Q

If you are able to buy back in the first 4 weeks then you will for sure want to Tennessee and then Philadelphia in week 2 as they play Detroit and you can save Green Bay for a later week. Take your chances with good but not great teams in the first 4 weeks and especially in week 2 as everyone is going to take Green Bay over Buffalo.

Just some thoughts. let me know how I can help.

[canabiz]

I like the pick and will probably on it as well. What are your thoughts on Da Bears? Going by the looking-ahead strategy, the only other *winnable* game that I could see for Chicago is Week 6 when they host Seattle and Week 9 when they visit Buffalo and both games are no *gimme* by any stretch of the imagination.


In addition, here are 2 situational questions that if you or anyone else has feedback, I am all ears.

1. If you have more than 1 entry in the same Pool or if you are participating in more than 1 Survivor Pool: Do you try to have the same *best* pick across the board or do you diversify and hope not all your eggs are put in one basket?

2. Do you *hedge* your Survivor Pool pick i.e. putting some coins on Oakland + the points...I realize it may not be worthwhile doing it at this early stage but as you get to live another week and the winning payout increases, is this something that needs to be taken into consideration?

The hedging amount is obviously dependent on many factors.

Good luck OPG and surviving we shall!

[officepoolguy]

couple of reasons to not pick the bears:

1. You most likely will not use the bears at all so you dont need to look ahead.

2. I try to stay away from teams with alot of question marks and may not be very good.

3. I also stay away from divisional games as much as possible.

4. I also stay away from Rivalry games.

Hope that helps. Good luck

[rockland]

Potato Kmish also picked Tennessee in his interview on ESPN last week.

Potato Kmish's world famous NFL Survivor pool since 1994. $200.00 an entry. The pool had $110,000 in the pot last year and has been written up in ESPN The Magazine, and in Chad Millman's column. To join, click the link below.

http://www.officefootballpool.com/pools.cfm?p=2&poolid=9924&pwd=sdpick

[officepoolguy]

I may look to join...anyone know of any other Survivor pools let me know.

[low Q]

If you are able to buy back in the first 4 weeks then you will for sure want to Tennessee and then Philadelphia in week 2 as they play Detroit and you can save Green Bay for a later week. Take your chances with good but not great teams in the first 4 weeks and especially in week 2 as everyone is going to take Green Bay over Buffalo.

Just some thoughts. let me know how I can help.

Thanks OPG! I'll let you know how it goes...........

[low Q]

we're up to 102 in the pool so far..............

[low Q]

hey OPG.... was thinking of Packers or Cowboys for week 2.... any thoughts????

[low Q]

any........ any thoughts? Hello? I feel so all alone................

[Lakers1905]

haha lol

[low Q]

WHEW! for a minute there I thought it was just me in here!

[canabiz]

I can't speak for OPG because this is his thread but I will be on the Packers this weekend.

[low Q]

hmmmm, well I took the Titans for week one, what's your lean for week 2? maybe Cowboys?

[officepoolguy]

There are many different strategies to winning a Survivor Pool...so I do not claim that my strategy is the only one out there but I am going to post my weekly Survivor picks here and anyone interested can follow them.

I have been successful in the past and I want to lay out my strategy so you know if this thread will work for you:

1) I look ahead at the schedule and try to get a "rough" map of my picks. I feel this is the only way to get an advantage late in the Survivor pool. I want to have good teams at the end when it becomes more predictable and others are out of options.

2) I do not always play the home team. Home teams do lose over 40% of the time so I don't automatically pick a home team.

3) I do not always go with the largest favorite. This is the NFL remember.

4) I try to stay away from divisional games and Monday/Thursday games as much as possible.

5) I do research and use trends and statistics.

If you want to know some of my other ideas and strategies you can download a free copy of an e-book I wrote (just let me know).

Anyway, for what it is worth here is my Week 1 Pick, let me know what you think:



WEEK 1 SURVIVOR PICK

Tennessee (Won)

Analysis: Tennessee is the better team with the better Running game. Campbell is banged up and in a new system playing on the road.

Trend to consider: Favored Home teams in Week 1 are 73-32 since 2000 and if favored by 6.5 points they are 6-0 since 2001.

WEEK 2 SURVIVOR PICK
Green Bay

Analysis: Going out on a limb with the 14 point favorite but can't pass up this blowout.

Trend to consider: Buffalo is 3-22 ATS after playing Miami (Dolphins take a lot out of the Bills) since 1998.

[low Q]

thx OPG!

[KACK]

Nice... I like the Packers.. thanks

[slacker00]

Packers seem like the slam dunk play for survivor pools in week 2. The next two candidate teams, Dallas & SD are both at home, but playing pesky teams (Chicago & Jax), I wouldn't trust either one after what they did in week 1. Plus, SD & Dallas are good teams to save for later in the season if they get on the inevitable hot streak. So, yeah, the Pack is an easy pick this week.

[DeluxeLiner]

If you think everyone in your pool is going to take the Packers, I am thinking there could be some value in taking SD at home, and using the Packers for Week 4. Any thoughts?

[low Q]

Thx OPG, so far so good. I'm thinking Cards or Pats for next week. Any thoughts?

[sweethook]

nice work you doing , gl. man

[slacker00]

Patriots are the play for week 3. The Bills are terrible, the Pats are at home coming off a tough loss, they'll be focussed.

The next two alternative candidates would be the Ravens and the Vikings. I'd prefer to save the Vikings until Rice gets back(Bills @ Vikings week 13 or maybe Cards @ Vikings week 9). I think the Ravens also have offensive glitches to work out and could be a better team to use later in the season (Bills @ Ravens week 7, Ravens @ Panthers week 11).

[DeluxeLiner]

I am taking the Patriots. They aren't super useful later in the season.

[low Q]

what say you OPG?

[low Q]

well???

[officepoolguy]

Sorry guys...I haven't been as active posting here because I run an Office Pool Newsletter and NFL 5 Star Report that take most of my time.

Anyway, so far so good I had Green Bay last week and we are 2-0 for the year. It now gets a little tougher if you look ahead like I do:

The logical choices here are Baltimore, Minnesota or New England.

WEEK 3 SURVIVOR PICK
New England

Analysis: My analysis is easy...Buffalo is horrible, it does not matter who is at quarterback. New England has dominated this game winning something like 18 of the last 19. Also being at home will help. Buffalo will be forced into 3rd and longs unless they figure out Spiller is their best player in which then they will be in many 3rd and mediums. Their only saving grace will be that their secondary is actually pretty good so Brady will have to work to move the ball. Picking New England this week will also allow us to save Baltimore for week 7 and Minnesota for week 13 against Buffalo.

Trends to consider: Belichick is very good after losing as a favorite going 13-5 ATS. Also they are 15-5 SU as a favorite in their last 20 games.

[low Q]

Thanks OPG!

[officepoolguy]

Thanks OPG!

thanks for the points much appreciated....lets stay alive another week.

[officepoolguy]

Looking Ahead

I am confident we will be alive into next week with our New England so I have begun looking ahead...week 4 is very tough...San Diego is my lean right now since they are at home but also looking at Houston and Cincinnati.

[officepoolguy]

Sorry guys...I haven't been as active posting here because I run an Office Pool Newsletter and NFL 5 Star Report that take most of my time.

Anyway, so far so good I had Green Bay last week and we are 2-0 for the year. It now gets a little tougher if you look ahead like I do:

The logical choices here are Baltimore, Minnesota or New England.

WEEK 3 SURVIVOR PICK
New England

Analysis: My analysis is easy...Buffalo is horrible, it does not matter who is at quarterback. New England has dominated this game winning something like 18 of the last 19. Also being at home will help. Buffalo will be forced into 3rd and longs unless they figure out Spiller is their best player in which then they will be in many 3rd and mediums. Their only saving grace will be that their secondary is actually pretty good so Brady will have to work to move the ball. Picking New England this week will also allow us to save Baltimore for week 7 and Minnesota for week 13 against Buffalo.

Trends to consider: Belichick is very good after losing as a favorite going 13-5 ATS. Also they are 15-5 SU as a favorite in their last 20 games.

Tough win this week with New England but that is why they call it survivor. This week is where we start to earn our money.

Early leans are with New Orleans or San Diego. Will post final survivor pick, analysis and trends to consider later in the week.

[low Q]

Tough win this week with New England but that is why they call it survivor. This week is where we start to earn our money.

Early leans are with New Orleans or San Diego. Will post final survivor pick, analysis and trends to consider later in the week.

we'll be watching