2010 NFL System - JM and Modified

Andy3568 · 12-05-10, 11:57 PM

I didn't watch the Tennessee game today, but based on what I saw last week, they are totally sucking. Even Finnegan getting Johnson (and himself) thrown out of the game last week didn't help. Here's hoping they cover against Indianapolis next week. They should get a pretty good line based on the way they're playing. Plus, if they win straight up (yeah right) against the Colts, that would mean the Colts are a play against the Jaguars.

As for Arizona, they are probably only still in it because the NFC West sucks. Also, they are playing the Broncos next week, who are officially out of the playoffs. They stand a good chance.

It's a "B" and a "C" bet next week, but we've been there before. On 11/14, we had Dallas (C Bet) and Denver (B Bet). At least this week, Tennessee's on Thursday and Arizona's on Sunday.

DustyDiamond · 12-07-10, 04:07 PM

I hate C bets, I don't have a lot of confidence with Tennessee right now, not sure if I'll make the play or not. What is everyone thinking?

Thirsty P · 12-08-10, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

I hate C bets, I don't have a lot of confidence with Tennessee right now, not sure if I'll make the play or not. What is everyone thinking?

I agree. The line is at +3 as of today. That isn't enough to get me that jazzed about laying a lot on this Titans team. The odds are +100 right now so the books are trying to get some money on the Titans. We should see that hook come up shortly but we still need more, like spot the Titans a TD!!!

bauerranch · 12-08-10, 01:22 PM

The bet can lose and then JM can say it was because of a short week-yada-yada

I am going to lay a small bet

GGPLAYER · 12-08-10, 04:40 PM

It's amazing Tenn and the Colts both are alive for the playoffs by winning this weak division. I don't know I have stuck with the Titans for the past two weeks but don't feel comfortable betting against a desperate P. Manning.

Just did a quick look at the forum and everyone with their mother, brother, sister, father, aunt, uncle, 2nd cousin...... are on the Colts. I am liking Tenn a little more now.

alexy · 12-08-10, 06:25 PM

Tenn vs. Colts almost flip a coin. I´m thinking to tease and get some advantage.

Wilba · 12-08-10, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

I hate C bets, I don't have a lot of confidence with Tennessee right now, not sure if I'll make the play or not. What is everyone thinking?

Why would you ever have any confidence in a team that has just lost 5 SU and ATS?? which a team has to do to make it to the C bet?? That is the whole point, no one will have confidence in a team that has just lost 5 SU and ATS, which is why all the general public is backing the Colts!

If you gonna pike out once you get to the C bets you should never start playing a series in the first place, C bets are where the big money is to be made, they have a far superior (~80%) win rate as compared to A's and B's (both under 70). If you are scared of making the C when it comes along dont make the A and the B in the first place, you are just throwing your money away as you will never make money pulling out every time you hit a C bet.

Do you not remember how bad Dallas was when their C bet came up!? and everyone on this forum was posting "man Dallas is way too shit... they cant make the playoffs... dont play them" etc, and I came in and said "it is a C bet, so play it! it is the bet of the season so far for me" and then Dallas wins straight up against one of the best teams in the league (Giants) as a 14 point underdog. Never underestimate the power of the C's.

besides Colts suck ass just as much anyway. You see the amount of interceptions Peyton has been throwing recently!?

on3 · 12-09-10, 03:29 AM

Originally posted by Wilba

Why would you ever have any confidence in a team that has just lost 5 SU and ATS?? which a team has to do to make it to the C bet?? That is the whole point, no one will have confidence in a team that has just lost 5 SU and ATS, which is why all the general public is backing the Colts!

If you gonna pike out once you get to the C bets you should never start playing a series in the first place, C bets are where the big money is to be made, they have a far superior (~80%) win rate as compared to A's and B's (both under 70). If you are scared of making the C when it comes along dont make the A and the B in the first place, you are just throwing your money away as you will never make money pulling out every time you hit a C bet.

Do you not remember how bad Dallas was when their C bet came up!? and everyone on this forum was posting "man Dallas is way too shit... they cant make the playoffs... dont play them" etc, and I came in and said "it is a C bet, so play it! it is the bet of the season so far for me" and then Dallas wins straight up against one of the best teams in the league (Giants) as a 14 point underdog. Never underestimate the power of the C's.

besides Colts suck ass just as much anyway. You see the amount of interceptions Peyton has been throwing recently!?

well said sir. if you follow the system, then you follow it all the way.

the modified system has indy as a play tomorrow, but im playing the titans and then (hopefully) after a win, play the colts the next two weeks.

Kev the Brit · 12-09-10, 08:47 AM

on3, are you planning on displaying your weekly summary today? Your mod system failed at the C Bet with Tennessee on Sunday and Tennessee are playing JM's "Invincible NFL System" C Bet tonight (Thu). Are Tenn so bad that they cannot win ATS in 6 games? I hope not....

Regards to all..

GGPLAYER · 12-09-10, 09:40 AM

12/09/2010
08:20 PM 101 - Indianapolis Colts

102 - Tennessee Titans
35166 -2.5 100
+2.5 -108 -3 -113
+3 104

Top 10 Bets:
1 Indianapolis Colts Point Spread
2 Indianapolis Colts Money Line

I'm liking Tenn more and more

webejamn · 12-09-10, 10:20 AM

It is always a good move to fade the public...

I am a COLTS fan and it kills me to bet against them because I know the time I do that they are going to win, lets just hope it is only by 3 points!

Somebody said earlier in this post, C bet is a C bet, if you dont want to make it you shouldn't have made the A and the B no matter how bad it looks.

I couldn't agree more...I'll be on TEN tonight, GL to all

cmdyrds · 12-09-10, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

12/09/2010
08:20 PM 101 - Indianapolis Colts

102 - Tennessee Titans
35166 -2.5 100
+2.5 -108 -3 -113
+3 104

Top 10 Bets:
1 Indianapolis Colts Point Spread
2 Indianapolis Colts Money Line

I'm liking Tenn more and more

Originally posted by webejamn

It is always a good move to fade the public...

I am a COLTS fan and it kills me to bet against them because I know the time I do that they are going to win, lets just hope it is only by 3 points!

Somebody said earlier in this post, C bet is a C bet, if you dont want to make it you shouldn't have made the A and the B no matter how bad it looks.

I couldn't agree more...I'll be on TEN tonight, GL to all

where do you see this line bottoming out at?

webejamn · 12-09-10, 02:21 PM

I don't see it moving much at all, I have seen it at 3 1/2 at one point today but right now it is back to 3 at my book

cmdyrds · 12-09-10, 04:27 PM

scores and odds has it listed at 4 and the public are still 87% on the colts.

jmjj · 12-09-10, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by cmdyrds

scores and odds has it listed at 4 and the public are still 87% on the colts.

yeah I got it at +4 myself but like wow man 21-7 halftime? wow guys lol lets get it done Titans Ive had the NFL system for 2 yrs havent personally seen a loss yet and dont want to either

webejamn · 12-09-10, 11:45 PM

That could not have worked out any better for me, maybe I have some luck after all!

I got pissed during the game so I hit TEN +7, +11.5, +12.5 and +18.5 to try and win some of my money back!

Wilba · 12-10-10, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by webejamn

That could not have worked out any better for me, maybe I have some luck after all!

I got pissed during the game so I hit TEN +7, +11.5, +12.5 and +18.5 to try and win some of my money back!

well done guys, well to those who played the C like they should have. It was looking pretty dicey at 21-0 down but as is so often the case with C bets they came back to cover!

GGPLAYER · 12-10-10, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by cmdyrds

where do you see this line bottoming out at?

Sorry buddy I did not see this. I got Tenn at +4 on my local book about 10 min before kickoff. Hell of a cover. I also took the over per the plays I do with Shivabowl in his thread. No way were the books going to take that kind of hit last night. People are still under the impression that the Colts are good. The key for me was their defense (lack of). They just give up way too many points. Public perception is just amazing. You really get a sense of it when you do some reading here on SBR. Lost track of all the threads and comments I read backing the Colts. On the surface it made sense but as we so often see perception and reality are often two different things.

cmdyrds · 12-10-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Sorry buddy I did not see this. I got Tenn at +4 on my local book about 10 min before kickoff. Hell of a cover. I also took the over per the plays I do with Shivabowl in his thread. No way were the books going to take that kind of hit last night. People are still under the impression that the Colts are good. The key for me was their defense (lack of). They just give up way too many points. Public perception is just amazing. You really get a sense of it when you do some reading here on SBR. Lost track of all the threads and comments I read backing the Colts. On the surface it made sense but as we so often see perception and reality are often two different things.

no worries. real nail biter but thank god i had the stones to play the c bet.

dwang0725 · 12-10-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Sorry buddy I did not see this. I got Tenn at +4 on my local book about 10 min before kickoff. Hell of a cover. I also took the over per the plays I do with Shivabowl in his thread. No way were the books going to take that kind of hit last night. People are still under the impression that the Colts are good. The key for me was their defense (lack of). They just give up way too many points. Public perception is just amazing. You really get a sense of it when you do some reading here on SBR. Lost track of all the threads and comments I read backing the Colts. On the surface it made sense but as we so often see perception and reality are often two different things.

So true. But the public will win as well. For example, NE vs NYJ.

It's just that this game was so overwhelmingly perceived as a gimme for the Colts. It really goes to show you that anything can happen in the NFL.

cmdyrds · 12-10-10, 11:40 AM

guys,

maybe someone can give me some insight to this. obviously most know contrarian betting and reverse line movement etc. my question is what is an overwhelmingly number considered when the public is playing one side over another? is it like a 60/40, 70/30, 80/20 etc?

hopefully someone can share their thoughts? thanks.

on3 · 12-10-10, 03:21 PM

wow guys, really sorry for not doing my weekly post. i really thought i had everything up to date. here was the update for week 14:

system record: 7-0 and 1-0 unofficial

system week 14 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

B - Arizona
C - Tenn (winner)

system week 15 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

mod system record: 6-1

mod system week 14 plays (.500 or better record, lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

A - Indianapolis (winner)

mod system week 15 potential plays (.500 or better record, lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

Baltimore
Tampa Bay
New York Jets

on3 · 12-10-10, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

on3, are you planning on displaying your weekly summary today? Your mod system failed at the C Bet with Tennessee on Sunday and Tennessee are playing JM's "Invincible NFL System" C Bet tonight (Thu). Are Tenn so bad that they cannot win ATS in 6 games? I hope not....

Regards to all..

Really sorry for not doing my weekly update. I just updated the thread.

on3 · 12-10-10, 03:24 PM

I dont know how many people played Tenn +3 and Indy ML (for the modified system) yesterday, but I didnt. I only played the Tenn +3. Indy is technically a win, but I will be playing them week 15.

alexy · 12-11-10, 12:02 AM

Arizona first half is better than the full game. Imo

jphil · 12-12-10, 07:57 PM

what a nailbiter! 2 min. left! let's hope ariz. can pull this one off!

go birds!(dallas) tonight. (non-JM).

on3 · 12-12-10, 08:38 PM

The season is technically over for the JM system, going 9-0 this year. There was an additional win with Detroit if you played the unofficial series. There is are two plays left in the modified system, which did have a loss this year with Tennessee. Tennessee was a rare team where they had injuries, QB controversy, and rough OT loss on the A bet. I think the modified system is still great, and the issues with Tenn were so rare that they shouldnt cause any significant alteration in the rules.

system record: 9-0 and 1-0 unofficial (+9 or +10 units)

system week 15 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

season done!

mod system record: 7-1* (-.7 units)

mod system week 15 plays (.500 or better record, lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

A- New York Jets
*Will play Indianapolis on a 3 game chase to end the season

if you liked the thread and made some money this year, i would appreciate the SBR points. lets have the jets close us out with a bang. good luck to all!

jphil · 12-12-10, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by on3

The season is technically over for the JM system, going 9-0 this year. There was an additional win with Detroit if you played the unofficial series. There is are two plays left in the modified system, which did have a loss this year with Tennessee. Tennessee was a rare team where they had injuries, QB controversy, and rough OT loss on the A bet. I think the modified system is still great, and the issues with Tenn were so rare that they shouldnt cause any significant alteration in the rules.

system record: 9-0 and 1-0 unofficial (+9 or +10 units)

system week 15 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

season done!

mod system record: 7-1* (-.7 units)

mod system week 15 plays (.500 or better record, lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

A- New York Jets
*Will play Indianapolis on a 3 game chase to end the season

great job On3! Will we see ya next yr.?

Can't believe there were only 9 jm series compared to last yr. Not that quality wins are any worse than quantity wins.

if you or anyone happens to get jm mailings, & he may happen to slip in an occasional extra series on one of his whims, could ya let us know? thanx.

checked your x-mas stocking yet?

on3 · 12-12-10, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by jphil

great job On3! Will we see ya next yr.?

Can't believe there were only 9 jm series compared to last yr. Not that quality wins are any worse than quantity wins.

if you or anyone happens to get jm mailings, & he may happen to slip in an occasional extra series on one of his whims, could ya let us know? thanx.

checked your x-mas stocking yet?

we had 21 plays last year. its a shame we didnt have more plays this year, but hey, im always looking forward to next year. the only other JM betting strategy is the HUFT (home underdog, foreign turf), but that is common to a lot of different bettors. i believe the HUFT theory hits around 65-68% consistently.

hopefully the Jets at the Colts can give us two more wins and close the season for us with a bang.

jmjj · 12-12-10, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by on3

we had 21 plays last year. its a shame we didnt have more plays this year, but hey, im always looking forward to next year. the only other JM betting strategy is the HUFT (home underdog, foreign turf), but that is common to a lot of different bettors. i believe the HUFT theory hits around 65-68% consistently.

hopefully the Jets at the Colts can give us two more wins and close the season for us with a bang.

hey I agree that we are 9-0 this yr with the unofficial play thrown in there as well but Ive got only 15 official plays last yr and heres the plays I had last yr what did I miss?

1. Miami (A) vs. Bills 10/4/09 (Won A Bet)
2. Chiefs (A) vs. Giants 10/4/09 (Lost A Bet) (Won B Bet)
3. Browns (A) vs. Bengals 10/4/09 (Won A Bet)
4. Tampa Bay (A) vs. Redskins 10/4/09 (Won A Bet)

5. Panthers (A) vs. Washington 10/11/09 (Won A Bet)
6. Titans (A) vs. Colts 10/11/09 (Lost A Bet/B Bet/Won C Bet)
7. Seahawks (A) vs. Jaguars 10/11/09 (Won A Bet)

8. Bills (A) vs. Jets 10/18/09 (Won A Bet)
9. Raiders (A) vs. Eagles 10/18/09 (Won A Bet)
10. Rams (A) vs. Jaguars 10/18/09 (Won A Bet)

11. Jets (A) vs. Raiders 10/25/09 (Won A Bet)
12. Tampa Bay (A) vs. Green Bay 11/8/09 (Won A Bet)
13. Giants (A) vs. San Diego 11/8/09 (A Bet Loss/B Bet Win)
14. Jaguars (A) vs. Kansas City 11/8/09 (Won A Bet)
15. Broncos (A) vs. Chargers 11/22/09 (A Bet Loss/(B Bet Win)

DustyDiamond · 12-13-10, 05:36 AM

Great season everyone!! The JM system stops after week 14?

jmjj · 12-13-10, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

Great season everyone!! The JM system stops after week 14?

not necesarily there are still possible plays if Jets dont cover and lose against the Steelers next Sunday then they will be since they are still in the playoff hunt but I'd say they will show up and at least cover but dont know til its played -)

DustyDiamond · 12-13-10, 05:17 PM

Thanks on3 for all your hard work and for introducing me to your modified system. Good luck everyone the rest of the way

jphil · 12-20-10, 03:17 AM

ON3: Jets! Indy!

And then i decided to start a chase on my Eagles!

Beautiful!

on3 · 12-20-10, 03:28 PM

Congratulations on the finishing the season with two BIG wins with the Jets (SU winner) and Indy (SU and ATS). Here are the totals for the season:

JM System: 9-0 official, 10-0 unofficial (+9/+10 units depending if you played Detroit)
Modified on3 system: 8-1 (+.3 units)

Tennessee kind of messed up our undefeated season, but we still finished in the black.

Also, I stopped tracking this in the forum, but the LWL .500 trend finished with a 8-4 record I believe on SU plays, no chase.

Happy holidays to everyone. If you dont follow the JM NBA System, I recommend it, it does very, very well.