this is on a 1-10 unit scale. this is better than a 10 unit pick.
Ravens +2.5 10U
Ravens +2.5 10U
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and by the way get the ravens NOW! this is an oddsmaker error and thisline will move against us fast.
in addition
Titans -3 7U -105
Bengals-5.5 3U
Vikes -3.5 5UComment -
f#uck dell hommie. pick six to cost us the cover.
*note to self- bet against hommie.
seriously, week 5 panthers come off a bye agianst redskins. unless washington can show me they can stop the run, this will be a big play. if washington fails to cover again, carolina should be 7 pt favorites and u guys know the play. panthers will be focused hereComment -
oh well still up 32 units on the week...nothing to be ashamed about-12-2 recordComment -
That last 5 minutes should've played out exactly the way it played out MINUS THE 8 PTS THAT DELHOMME HANDED TO THE COWBOYSComment -
Hey man don't be so quick to judge delhomme. At first on both of them i was thinking they were both his fault. Yes the first was a poor ball that should not have been thrown in the first place, but stupid muhammed did not come back on the ball at turn into a db. The second was 100% smith's fault. it was a simple slant route and the selfish bastard tried to turn it into some sort of slant and go. Delhomme was pressured all night long and i think he did an average job. he by no means is terrible and unlike a lot of qb's in the league can do good if he is given some time to throw the ball.
as for the pick 6 ruining your cover. be glad it was that close. dallas had the ball on the 1.5 yard line twice and settled for a fg and missed a 40 yd fg too. dallas came out pissed off in the second half. if they are leading at half time it could be a different game.Comment -
thanks for the reply dodger. I just see a cover and then poof....
Anyway, This is looking like an extremely enticing week, a lot of solid games. Like i said last week DON'T bet too much of your bankroll. this streak won't keep up!
For the noon games so far we take
Bears -10 5U I handicap this game to be bears -14, well since the lions finaly won the pub thinks this team can cover against a much better team. Not a chance, this helps the bears here because they will be focused and we get better line.
Giants -8 5U We are going against RLM here.. it is never a good idea but i can't justify laying money on the inferior chiefs against this cover machine Giants. Yeah its their third game on the road but at the same time they are 23-6 ats since '06 on the road. plus the chiefs just suck and cassels noodle arm can't get the ball downfield which is the only way to beat the giants. did i mention the chiefs suck
Bucs +7 3U Both teams here suck. don't be suprised to see 3-3 score and go into o.t. I'll take the points
I have another 10 Unit play here but... no line yet
any guesses?Comment -
very good gunz..
Colts - ? 10U
I figure this line will be -12 or -13 when it comes out. The seahawks put so much into their last game and i don't see how they can get fired up for this game. It will work out in the colts advantage if hasselbeck is playing because the colts will be more focused here. The seahawks have never been good on the road. Plus, peyton manning is the qb for the colts... enough said? hell no! 3 of Seatle's secondary starters may not play!!! did i mention that peyton is in his form right now and has been picking apart pass defenses with ease? Seatle's strong passing offense is matching one of the better pass defenses, unfortunately freeney will not play or playing injured, but seatle's best chance to move the chains is on the ground but they are not consistent enough with the ball in julius jone's hands. if this game has a spread of 14 pts or more i will lower my unit amount, but this game has blowout writen all over it.Comment -
in addition i am adding
Dolphins +2 8U
Broncos +3 5UComment -
i handicap the dolphins game to be -3 -4 dolphins with pennington playing. How much does this goof even throw? yeah he's a decent qb but this teams offense is in their conservative style and converting short third downs. Nothing changes in miami's gameplan here. not to mention both the bills starting corners are out. As far as i have seen in my days, when a key position(qb) is replaced by a backup, the team tends to bring maximum effort on both sides of the ball. The wrong team is favored here. To add to this argument, the bills can not defend the run, 18th for yardage. Look back and see how many yards the fins have shredded their opponents defenses for on the ground. Not to mention, the yards the fins d has given on the ground. The bills rank 9th rushing O. Marshawn Lynch is returning this game, but i believe this will be a non-factor as the fins rank 3rd on rushing D. Plus the reason T.O. (i hate the guy) isn't getting the ball is the bills O-line. They suck and Miami has pass rushers to get to trent Edwards. This game could be lopsided, but i think bills will stick in it untill 4th Q where miami wears out the bills D and takes over the game.Comment -
colts -10.5 10UComment -
I like the packersComment -
Falcons -6.5 1U
Pats -3.5 1UComment -
Hey Kev, i'm going to trail your Balt, Colts and Bengals picks
Am i missing anything else you are confident about. I see titans as a 7unit pick, maybe i should get on that tooComment -
if your going for top 3 take the fins over the bengals... The bengals played a tough one against pit and next week play the ravens. This is called a sandwich situation. The bengals obviously have more talent to cover but may not be focused.
I'm loving the fins this week, time to get a winComment -
Kevin, I also like your picks, with the possible exceptions of the Colts and the Broncos. Manning is still Manning, but they don't seem to have quite the mojo they have had in the past and I think they don't cover. And Dallas may be getting on a roll, so I will have to see Denver keep up their amazing defense against a quality opponent before I buy in.
But I see your rationale on both of those plays and I love the other picks!Comment -
thanks nick
As far as defending the broncos... Nobody believes in them yet, This is their first matchup where they can prove themselves to the public and the media. 3-0 might be a fluke, which i believe it is, But this team is fired up and will bring their A effort to this matchup. The cowboys IMO, are one of the most overated team in the NFL, The pub loves backing flashy teams with a good offense but overlook the defense. The broncos meanwhile have a good offense but their defense is WHAT-ranked 1st in yards and points allowed? oh yeah, they played cincy, cleveland, oakland. The biggest difference in denver's Offense is that they actually can run the ball this year. Plus a very talented recieving core for dumb Orton to try and throw to. If the broncos can play decent defense again here they will win. Plus what has dallas done to be favored in denver (one of the best home field advantages). Dallas barely squaked a cover by the flat on their face Panther squad, and the 29th ranked buc on my power rankings. This is a situational play. I do not expect a blowout, but i expect a very motivated home team to be in control of this game.Comment -
call me crazy pedro.
I put a lot of thought into this game throughout the week. At first i agree with you that texans will outscore the raiders big time. Then i remembered last year the raiders played them tough, maybe a unit on raiders. Then i remembered, the texans offense vs. an incapable opposing qb, Maybe 3 Units Texans. Then i remembered the raiders don't have to throw the ball against a dead last rushing defense (6.3 yards per carry). Then i remembered the the raiders played the chargers poor rushing defense and did some clobering on the ground. Then i remembered the texans have one of the best passing offenses. Then i remembered Nnamdi Asomugha could actually shut down andre Johnson like he did last year. Also i remembered the texans only have 2 sack in 5 games, He will get time and might actually not suck for this 1 game anyway. Plus we have slight RLM on Oklands side. After much thought and obviously changing my mind a million times i like the raiders chances of losing but covering the spread.
Raiders +9 1UComment -
What's the lean on the Pit/SD game? From what I'm seeing the money is heavy on SD and the line is improving for them (RLM)? Pitt is in a must win mode to stay with Balt. and I think Norv Turner is a bad enough coach to lose this one by more than a TD.Comment -
G playa. That line i believe is right on. I do not wish to play this game. If i had a gun to my head i would take SD with the pts. maybe i will find an edge later on but both teams are desperate for a win.
just so we don't lose track we are up 61.05 units on the season.Comment -
i have the highest expectations for this weekend.
On that note, even the best weekends can screw you so don't increase your bet size just because we are on a hot streak. This 75% roll will not keep up. 12-2 might not happen again this year, but who knows?Comment -
#100
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I am upping the Vikings pick up to 8U
so as a recap for the games week 4...
Ravens +2.5 10U
Titans -3 7U -105
Bengals-5.5 3U
Vikes -3.5 8U
Bears -10 5U
Giants -8 5U
Bucs +7 3U
Dolphins +2 8U
Broncos +3 5U
colts -10.5 10U Even
Raiders +9 1UComment -
well were up 15 Units so far today after bad noon games. I am putting money on chargers unlike i said.
Chargers +6 4UComment -
1 Unint chargers ML +200 to win 2UnitsComment -
ok bad call on the chargers. so what, rlm i know. good call ggplayer.
Still up a dime on the day, any day your up 10 units is great! We still have vikes tommorow and not the kind you snort.
The reason i upped this to 8 units is simple. The war at the offensive line. **** favre, he should do good but.... The only reason he will do good is AP. The pack has not been able to stop mediocre rushing offenses this seasnon, minus week 1. do not be suprised to see AP run 200 yards here. Secondly, The pack hasnot been able to block a D line yet against mediocre teams. What will they do agaiunst 3 probowl Dlinemen?Comment
