NFL RLM -- Reverse Line Movement 2009

[texhooper]

Some advice I can give new RLM'ers is to not try to find RLM when it isn't clear.

this is a very good statement. i'm no real expert in the field, but it's really easy to trick yourself into making stupid plays because of some small fluctuations that aren't terribly significant.

[threeg5]

What does everyone think about the Giants / Bucs 1 point RLM ?

Any value in there.
What could the Bucs have that we don't know about or
What are the Giants missing that we don't know about.

[DeluxeLiner]

What does everyone think about the Giants / Bucs 1 point RLM ?

Any value in there.
What could the Bucs have that we don't know about or
What are the Giants missing that we don't know about.

I got owned sir

[jon13009]

What is a good site to track percentages and line movement?

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-betting-odds

This site presents some data, but is limited in number of books tracked. It is free and provided by SportsInsights.

[DeluxeLiner]

This week I am looking at...

Steelers -6.5, 1.5 pt line movement, 12.8k bets, 68/32

Oh yea and this play which I don't think I could pull the trigger on...

Chiefs +9, .5 pt line movement, 18k, 85/15

[Sidetracked]

.5 isnt enough for me, i like steelers and the fact that the raiders line is 80% 20% in favor of the texans and that line hasnt move makes me think oak-town is worth a play

[Bogart45]

Oak game started at 9.5 and is now to 8.5.

[Nativediver]

How do you copare the ELM ( early line movement )to Rlm? As in Ravs/Pats game it opened at -3 Pats and within hours it was down to -1 at some books?

[billmunny]

How do you copare the ELM ( early line movement )to Rlm? As in Ravs/Pats game it opened at -3 Pats and within hours it was down to -1 at some books?

First, you should be careful because the line went from -3 at +110 or +115 to -1 at -110, so this isn't really the same as a "normal" two point move.

Second, the line moved from Pats -3 to -1 when the majority of the bets were on the Ravens. This is what you would expect when the majority of the bets and money are on the Ravens (as they appear to have been in this case), because moving the line in this way will make new money more likely to be bet on the Pats and balance things out, because they have a smaller spread to cover.

Reverse line movement in this case would have been if the line went from -3 to -4 when all the vast majority of bets appeared to be on the Ravens. Barring any new info such as injuries, in a case like this, the implication is that while MORE bets are on the Ravens, LARGER bets (or bets from bigger/sharper players) are being placed on the Pats.

[Blutarski]

If I'm reading the explanation correctly it looks like the Redskins game qualifies. I see it opening at -7 and has gone up to -9 at Pinnacle and 8 1/2 at other places. However the majority of people are on Tampa according to SBR odds.

[Robust]

All RLM'ers I found on sbrodds (note: they sometimes differ from bet tracker.. and I haven't checked yet)

NYG@KC
TB@WAS
NYJ@NO
BUF@MIA
SD@PIT

the line says all the home teams should cover.. but KC? WAS?

oh my.. oh.. remember last week with TB against the giants.. RLM kicked me in the ass with a SHUTOUT!.. so against RLM and with the giants this week

also a little nervous about pit.. w/o palumalu, they have been sucking.. prolly will win, but cover? got SD +7 early in the week, but I don't like that bet.. lol

oh.. most are not over 60% and 1pt moves.. so confirm for yourselves BEFORE you place a bet..

good luck to ALL!

Robust

[Blazermaniac]

Biggest line movement for all rlm fan is Cleveland. Opened at 4 went up to 5.5 then sitting at 6 now. Almost 75% on Bengals. If this holds up at game time......Cleveland is a good play. With a full week of practice....DA should be more productive. Don't be suprise if Cleveland scores early and hold on for a SU win. Games that you are afraid of.....are games that you should at times play. Games that are easy win...are not always the case. Cinc is on a roll but you never know what vegas will do. All it take is just one phone call to the headset.

[JIMBOK]

Cleveland would only be a rlm if they became less positive not more negative.

[DeluxeLiner]

All RLM'ers I found on sbrodds (note: they sometimes differ from bet tracker.. and I haven't checked yet)

NYG@KC
TB@WAS
NYJ@NO
BUF@MIA
SD@PIT

the line says all the home teams should cover.. but KC? WAS?

oh my.. oh.. remember last week with TB against the giants.. RLM kicked me in the ass with a SHUTOUT!.. so against RLM and with the giants this week

also a little nervous about pit.. w/o palumalu, they have been sucking.. prolly will win, but cover? got SD +7 early in the week, but I don't like that bet.. lol

oh.. most are not over 60% and 1pt moves.. so confirm for yourselves BEFORE you place a bet..

good luck to ALL!

Robust

My man Robust. Man I got Pitt -6. I don't like my bet either. I feel like this game is a crapshoot game even though it was RLM.

Yes, I got owned by NYG playing Tampa Bay last week too. If I were going to take a side I would go with the Chiefs cuz I don't generally like to fade RLM, but damn that is a ballsy play either way.

Was/TB, I am worried the line has moved too much now...9 points is a lot for a pretty dysfunctional team, even against an even more dysfunctional team. I am not the hugest fan of RLM on favorites (Despite my Pitt bet this weekend, it's a rare occurence)

BOL this week friends

[threeg5]

rlm plays would be
washington
New Orleans
Miami
Denver are they really saying that Dallas only wins because Jones and Barber are in there?
Pittsburgh does Polomalu make that much f a difference? I would think 50/50 they think more
Hmm what looks good
I do like Cleveland but not an RLM
I Like Miami and New Orleans

I dont think the NY/KC Game has enough movement to do anything anut I just think they need more $$ on a lopsided play besides Why would anyone put smart money on KC against the Giants? Maybe anther mediocore team but the Giants are top tier and KC is Lucky at best on a good day. they may have potetnital but they dont have it together yet.
Sorry for that ramble folks

[Goldfisch]

cleveland

is not reverse line movement. I havent seen any signiificant rlm this sunday. On sat UTEP , and Maryland qualified and they both won outright. I havent seen anything today though.

[EBDOG]

any over/under plays

[Bluehorseshoe]

Wouldn't Seattle qualify for you guys? Line opened up at 12 and dropped to 10. According to SportsOptions, 86% are on the Colts.

[threeg5]

is not reverse line movement. I havent seen any signiificant rlm this sunday. On sat UTEP , and Maryland qualified and they both won outright. I havent seen anything today though.

Yes there was significant movement in those games yesterday
today there is
2 pts on the TB and WAS game 60/40 split there really is no reason for this PORTIS and HAYNESWORTH are probable but the line was moving wrong before they were put as prob so books already knew maybe a problem earlier
2 pts on the BUF/MIA game 55/45 split not as good but on a 2 pt movement on the spread in the NFL and no reason at that I see what happened in 3.5 hours that made it move 2 pts in the wrong direction?
2 pts on the DAL/DEN game this probably because Barber and Jones out and now that have to rely on Romo on the road. So This is more like a lickem game to me

there are 2 more but they are .5 pt and explainable so no reason to even consider them.

[DeluxeLiner]

NYG got me for another week. Though the end score wasn't as embarrassing as last week, the game looked like a loss from the onset. I am not purposely fading NY but even common sense says NYG has to be a square play. Steelers covered though, which was nice to go 1-1 in NFL, I mean I can't expect to go 100% on these plays. College RLM was an excellent weekend so it all works out.

[threeg5]

any over/under plays

I have wondered this about 2 or 3 weeks ago. I have yet to pull the trigger on trying this out. I am not convinced that it would be as effective as on the spread or ML but, I do think it has some merit.
If you understand RLm you could simply go and look at the past statistics to see if it would be effective, I have nt done this but may do so as totals and ML's can make for some awesome parleys and sometimes teasers if you know what you are doing



so the question is:
Has anyone used, looked, or analyzed RLM on totals for any league?

[DeluxeLiner]

LT has said that totals RLM is not proven profitable. LT can state better than I can why, since I haven't tested it myself.

[Biff Webster]

I havent checked totals, but I have notice the public is wrong a lot, lol. You could probably do pretty dang good if look for the ones that are a 75/25 split or greater and then go with the smaller percentage.

[dimon]

just look at MNF game tonight...under is an easy bet...GL

[JIMBOK]

rml with totals worked for me ...just as good as a side... they usually move 30 min before game time

[DeluxeLiner]

I dont have the stats and percentages for totals. The bets are not as popular and not as many squares will be playing totals.

[threeg5]

rml with totals worked for me ...just as good as a side... they usually move 30 min before game time

JIMBOK are you saying that your method would be to start watching the lines about 30 minutes befre game time and the lines that have RLM at that time are the ones, or are you saying that you just watch for the lines to move a lot on the other line and follow it with the assumption that the Money is waiting until the last minute to "hit the right line?"


3g5

[JIMBOK]

thats what i believe... if the sharps like the under and public is on the over... why would they get their bet in early when they can let the public drive the line up a little first. soo if u see a sudden drop like 1.5 to 2 pts right before game time and pub is betting over then the play would be under.

[JIMBOK]

why did this thread just die off??

[bobspicks]

Good topic check out the giants line tonight pinnacle is at -1 and over 65% of bets on giants. Do you see what i see????