NFL RLM -- Reverse Line Movement 2009

[DeluxeLiner]

It's time for pro football and it's time to start looking for RLM games. This will be the thread that I and hopefully others discuss RLM and gain a consensus for what games exhibit the traits of definitive reverse line movement.

"Reverse line movement (RLM) is a clear indication of who the sharps are on. If over 60% of the public is on one team, yet the line moves the opposite way, it is not the squares that are moving the line." -LT Profits
For more information check this out:

http://ltprofits.mysbrforum.com/blog/0748-reverse-line-movements-lead-big-profits.html

Anyway, it's a bit early to start trying to figure out everything since a lot of money comes in closer to game time, but I just wanted to get the ball rolling.

Who's with me?!

[diogee]

Good luck Deluxe. I somewhat use this method at times.

[DeluxeLiner]

Week 1 Lean

1.Looking at NY Giants -6.5 against the Redskins.

1. The Giants are consistently getting around 39% of total bets so far which meets the 60/40 of bets guideline for RLM
2. The line opened at -6 and has moved to -6.5 and Legends is offering a -7, so it seems the line is gradually moving up.

Getting this line now at -6.5 is huge esp. if this line moves to 7

[jon13009]

Love RLMs but harder to find in the NFL. They seem better suited for NCAA football games where there are more choices, and wider margins (prefer where bets are less than 30% and RLMs greater than 1.0 points). Good luck, and please post games you like.

[DeluxeLiner]

Good luck Deluxe. I somewhat use this method at times.

Thanks diogee, lets rock the books this season!

[DeluxeLiner]

Love RLMs but harder to find in the NFL. They seem better suited for NCAA football games where there are more choices, and wider margins (prefer where bets are less than 30% and RLMs greater than 1.0 points). Good luck, and please post games you like.

I agree that there are going to be more RLMs on college ball, but my results in the past were not consistent enough for my liking. I am going to study college ball this season but stay away from it for the most part.

I will probably be playing 0-4 plays per week. It does seems there is at least 1 RLM every week.

Blatant RLM with wide margins happens in the NFL too. I think a good example from last season was that ugly Jets/Raiders game that had a result which really shocked the squares.

[VegasDave]

Great thread Deluxe!!

While there are Philosophy Picks that aren't RLM and there are RLM that aren't Philosophy Picks, the two will overlap quite a bit

[VegasDave]

I agree that there are going to be more RLMs on college ball, but my results in the past were not consistent enough for my liking. I am going to study college ball this season but stay away from it for the most part.

You up for working on this together? We seem to be in the same boat for college RLM/philosophy picks, if we work together we might be able to catch a few that the other misses and see if we can crack the college game .

[Betz]

Using this system (lets call it a system), aren't you taking worse of the number?

[KingKing]

yes! thanks deluxeliner and vegasdave.. this stuff is gold
b.o.l

[DeluxeLiner]

You up for working on this together? We seem to be in the same boat for college RLM/philosophy picks, if we work together we might be able to catch a few that the other misses and see if we can crack the college game .

Yea we should work on it over this season for sure. I would love to gain a better understanding of the college game. We should start a similar thread in the college football thread.

[DeluxeLiner]

Using this system (lets call it a system), aren't you taking worse of the number?

So for example the Jets and the Patriots are playing on a Sunday. The line is -9 Patriots and they are receiving 75% of the action. Pinnacle moves the line to Patriots -8, and you know that there has been no new game news (ie a player got injured). All the books subsequently adjust to -8.

I do agree that this does present a problem since you aren't getting the best possible line. But I am not even close to sharp enough to bet opening lines, and get the best.

When you see RLM happening at a top book, I think you can still have a great chance to beat the closing line by anticipating across the board movement. I suppose I am just advocating a steam play here.

Anyone else want to help answer this question, Betz does bring up a good point.

[VegasDave]

When betting RLM, you definitely are getting the worst number. But that is okay, because the edge you gain from taking that side seems to outweigh the negatives of getting less of a number.

For example (and this is a stretch, but bear with me), let's say that the Steelers are +6 against the Patriots, and Brady gets hurt bad at camp. The Patriots keep it completely under wraps, but you find out about it from an insider who has already bet the line down to +5. Even though you did not get the best number when you took it at +5, you used the information you received and got on what is hopefully now the "right" side.

Again, not a great example, but that's basically the jist of it. Different people will give you different reasons as to why RLM happens, but if bookies are moving a line that is already getting good action on one side to make that line even MORE enticing to the public... something is definitely up that we average Joe's aren't privy to. I'll gladly pay the half or full point penalty knowing that I'm getting on a side that a bunch of damn smart line movers are on.

[LT Profits]

Using this system (lets call it a system), aren't you taking worse of the number?

Not if you have a slow moving book. If you see one book trigger an RLM and a lagger has the stale line, pounce.

And even if you get a half-point or a full point worse than opener, you should still be OK as long as you beat closing line consistently.

[CLASSIC ROCK]

You will make money doing this! Can be a painful way to bet for some because there is so little action.

[DeluxeLiner]

You will make money doing this! Can be a painful way to bet for some because there is so little action.

I agree, we won't be playing very many games per week. Hopefully the winnings makes up for the lack of action

[Betz]

Personally,

I don't think you can win LONG TERM taking the worse of the number every single play you make. In fact, I think it's almost impossible, but if you guys prove me wrong, I'll be the first to say I was wrong and congratulate. After all, I'm on your side ... I want to beat my man!

[DeluxeLiner]

Personally,

I don't think you can win LONG TERM taking the worse of the number every single play you make. In fact, I think it's almost impossible, but if you guys prove me wrong, I'll be the first to say I was wrong and congratulate. After all, I'm on your side ... I want to beat my man!

As LT said you can try to catch the stale line, by doing a steam move thus getting a good line. Also you can still get a better line than the closing line so you can still have actual value (though the RLM plays in the past have still been successful even giving up .5 or a full point). Justin7 and LT both have gone into detail describing the importance of beating the closing line consistently (not necessarily beating the opening line)

Anyway we are going to stick with this all season and hopefully we will have continue the success we had last season. Unfortunately, even by the end of the season whether this thread is in the red or black we really won't have enough games to prove either way that this is profitable long term.

[DeluxeLiner]

Teams that look interesting for Week 1

1. Giants
2. Colts
3. Seahawks (What is up with Pinny's line at 9, everywhere else at 7 or 7.5)


Though I don't know if any RLM counts because there might not be enough action on these games yet to qualify for RLM, and these lines opened a long time ago (which is obviouisly unlike the rest of the season). Will need to revisit after opening game.

[LT Profits]

Pinny rarely puts up lines between 1.5-2.5 and 7.5-8.5 to avoid Wong teasers.

[Betz]

Pinny rarely puts up lines between 1.5-2.5 and 7.5-8.5 to avoid Wong teasers.

What's a Wong Teaser? Covering more than 3 key numbers or something?

[LT Profits]

Wong Teaser is NFL Teaser that crosses both the 3 and 7. Sharps made a killing on these over the years.

[DeluxeLiner]

The books seem to be slowly adjusting their Seahawks line to 9 (If they wanted to avoid Wong Teasers, why were the books/pinny offering a 7 and 7.5 before?). Thinking about taking them at 7.5, before all the books adjust to 9. Bettracker on two minute warning doesn't look like it is working or something because they aren't showing market averages correctly for any games,but they are saying 5600 bets are in (obviously not 10k), and I am getting the 60/40 from a stale line from sbrodds. What is going on here? What should I make of this?

[LT Profits]

7 is not a Wong. (that sounds dirty).
7.5 is, since tease goes THROUGH 7 and 3.

[CLASSIC ROCK]

Have never seen anybody consistently win playing teasers.

[dodger33]

how long have of a period of time are you talking about classic rock... how many years have you been doing this?

[br5874]

What is a good site to track percentages and line movement?

[BGboothA]

the SBRodds tool at the top of the page lists a great deal of info, including percentages and line movement.

[dodger33]

colts look like a candidate this weekend.

[CLASSIC ROCK]

This will be my 31st year trying to beat that nasty bookie! Not saying it can't happen that somebody wins playing teasers , just I've never seen it

[DeluxeLiner]

Nothing is solid thus far, still watching and waiting. I am expecting more movement after the Steelers/Titans game.

[Robust]

bump

newbies need to learn from this thread.. i started one last season, but forgot the title.. lol

won plenty on rlm in nfl.. so pay attention!!

Robust

[brooks85]

what bout the movement on

Stl/Sea Under
NO/Det Over
Bal/Kc Under

showing some rlm at 5d.

[Robust]

what bout the movement on

Stl/Sea Under
NO/Det Over
Bal/Kc Under

showing some rlm at 5d.

for me, i would wait til rlm is evident across most of the board.. 1 place showing rlm is not good enough for me.. but if they are the indicators of how the line moves (i think pinny and matchbook are), then i would take a chance early for a better price and/or number..

but you really want to be looking at a game with more than 10,000 bets and a full point move or more.. half points make me nervous

good luck!

Robust

[LT Profits]

what bout the movement on

Stl/Sea Under
NO/Det Over
Bal/Kc Under

showing some rlm at 5d.

Ignore totals with this method