Lucky1’s 2018 NFL Campaign

[nflguru2018]

Human, just posted 2nd play of nba season earlier in nba thread. Wont play much nba but I’ll have spot plays that I really love. Should be able to post when I play them..

Guru, I was on sbr in 2010 but I didn’t begin posting regularly until I decided to track myself in 2012..now it’s just a habit. When I win I feel good like I’m helping guys on here. Of course losing streaks brings out the opposite feelings about posting..I felt like a jack wagon yesterday with top play call on the Bungals. That’s as bad as it gets BUT, happens to everyone and whether your pick loses by 30+pts or by the hook on last play of the game..a wins a win, loss a loss.. It’s really just a understanding of the ebbs and flows. I trust myself, my ability to grind and my ability to win more then I lose. Hardest part is controlling impulse plays and poor money management which is why I adopt flat betting. Pick my spots with 2 unit plays..1-0 preseason, 4-4 reg season, 4-0 college..9-4, selective winners if I’m running right.

ok I remember a poster "luckygunz" not you?

[Lucky1g]

3-3 this wk -2.3 ..3 straight 2 unit losers. I gotta get those back to plus money. Will see what next wk brings, this wk was a bust

Updated NFL overall 23-22 51% -2.3 units
sides 17-13
totals 6-9
TOP Rated(2unit) 4-5
GOY-very rare(3unit) 0-0

[Lucky1g]

Nope, I don’t know no luckygunz. Lucky1g is all original, doing my best to win buddy. Catch u next wk, I’m out

[Lucky1g]

Early one. Finalizing the rest and will have up later this morning. Haven’t had a hot streak yet this year in nfl. Hope one starts for me this week. The grind is real. Back later

Jaguars+4.5

[Lucky1g]

Jets+9.5

Ravens-2.5

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Good luck

[Lucky1g]

C’mon jags..can’t believe they overturned that fumble. I know it was close but I saw a fumble on that one..that call very likely cost a cover unless the bets get miracled backdoor

Rams-7 (-120)

SNF
Vikings+2

MNF
Patriots-13.5

[Renegades]

9 plays inside the 10, Jax threw the ball every down. Last poss of the game, 6 pass plays on 2,3,4th down and less than 2 yards

[Renegades]

Jags season is done and so is Bortles time in Jax

[Lucky1g]

Giants ML+110

[Lucky1g]

just put that one in few minutes ago sorry for late post..card is final. Good luck with your action today. Hope it goes well in here

[Renegades]

Tough day. Nfl has been very square the last few weeks. The “easy” games have been..well...easy

[Lucky1g]

Yep smoked today. Worst day of football season this year. No breaks. Gurley takes a knee?? R u serious, it was over if he runs in for a TD too..why not score TD?? Sums up my day and I’m sick over it. Chase bet coming. Vikings and under tonight.

saints & Vikings UNDER 54.5

[Lucky1g]

An epic disaster yesterday. 1-6. Yes that really happened. I’m convinced MNF is pats all the way. I’m worried about some crazy backdoor cover by the Bills. Everyone on Pats tonight. Can’t make it Top Rated because I hate siding with the public in prime time..ESPECIALLY against my Bills. Trust me, i watched whole Bills game last week. 37-5 debacle with 4 offensive turnovers. Now Belicheck and Brady?? C’mon MAN. You take Bills tonight you might feel hopeful for about 1quarter...Bills fans are hammered, rowdy and delirious..then it sets in and Brady is Brady. 28-4 all time against Bills. Pretty confident this stays UNDER. ADDING

Patriots & Bills UNDER 45 (-120)

[Lucky1g]

3-6 -3.6 this wk. awful week lucky was able to hit 3 of last 4 to close out weekend. Back looking to bust out next week

Updated NFL overall 26-28 48% -5.9units
sides 18-19
totals 8-9
TOP Rated(2unit) 4-5
GOY-very rare(3unit) 0-0

[Lucky1g]

Guys you know i don’t do write ups. My nfl picks haven’t been profitable to this point. One of worst Sundays betting in loooong time was last Sunday...I don’t take the GOY label lightly. But here it is. Gotta roll with the Brownies because my handicapping methods say all systems GO!!!! Goodluck with your action. Bet responsibly...


Bears-10

***Top Rated 3 unit***Game of the Year***take the Browns+8


Chargers & Seahawks OVER 48

Texans ML (ev)

SNF
Patriots-5

[TiredPro]

Been a quiet follower of yours for many seasons...footsies and hoops.....Had Cleveland circled all week. All good.

[Tigers1230]

Arena like the whole forum is on the Browns. I hope their new coach can get some play calls to score!

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

I'm on Cleveland too was hoping I'd get 8.5 but jumped on Cleveland-105
Think the regime change and Dawgpound will keep mahomes somewhat tethered.. let's hope
Kc probably wins hope it stays within the 8 lucky

[Renegades]

Cleveland is going to have a hard time keeping up. Little by little their defense is moving to the bottom of the league. KC will be in the 30’s. Lets see what cleveland can score. Shouldnt clev be better on defense? They have first round draft picks. Signed a few guys in free agency. Seems odd that they continue to give up 400 yards per game

[Renegades]

KC has 150 yards already. They never punted vs cincy. Might be the same today.

[Tigers1230]

They have had one third down and it was 3rd and 20 and they throw a screen for 25yds. I’m kicking myself lol

[JayDr3am]

game of year on the browns? insane. tilt.

[tailin junkie]

I liked the browns too, disappointing, I hope you hit the rest

[alamo]

I gave the browns a swerve. Could never put 1u on these clowns no less 3.

Tailed the rest. Let’s get this hawks over , Texans and pats late game.

[Lucky1g]

Brownies gave it a run had chance to cover until Baker threw pick. What can I say, I knew when I posted there was a chance it might be a loser. thats what we do, we take chances. We gamble. I gambled big and lost this time and yes it sucks and yes I’m extremely dissapointed. Bad call, moving on...3-2 on the day -1.4 units. Books are on a bad run last 3 weeks in nfl. Tough for contrarian minded players like myself

Monday Night Football
**Top Rated**Titans+5
Also for anyone interested I have my 3rd big play of nba season tonight. Going to nba forum to post now. Best of luck and sorry I didn’t come through on my GOY play yesterday

[Lucky1g]

Funny, not like I can’t take criticism but Jaydr3am..nothing insane about the play. I’ll do it again next week if the conditions line up like they did yesterday. It didn’t work out, that’s gambling dude. Insane...yeah ok, coming from a guy that is posting 60% losers i college and pro football this year. Way to go jack wagon. Easy to critique a play AFTER it loses.

[Renegades]

Its been a tough stretch for books. Ive been getting killed. Thank God for cfb. I never play with the masses on sides. Its been way too easy. Feels like last year all over again. Im a little concerned with the trend. The nfl is very diff now than say 10-15 yrs ago. The rules are for offense. The league wants scoring. More teams going up tempo and running spread systems. More passing etc. the more passing, the more fast tempo, the more scoring is closely correlated to favorites covering. It does NOT benefit underdogs. Underdogs are at a disadvantage talent wise...thats why they are underdogs. Dogs are best when the game is ugly and low scoring which helps lessen the talent disparity. Now the part that I dont understand is why the books haven’t over adjusted to acct for this trend.

[Renegades]

Take KC for example. They are going to score 30+ pts on everyone they play. Years ago your top teams avg 27-30 pts. In todays nfl that would be avg. So if you are betting against KC you are going to need anywhere from 28 to 31+ to cover a smaller number ie less than 10.

I blindly bet clev yest simply because there was about 85% of the money on KC but i knew right away when KC never punted that the bet was toast. They converted two 3rd and 20’s!!! Throw in Denzel Ward getting hurt and pretty much the only way clev was going to cover was if KC turned it over and they didnt. They did punt once in the 4th qtr though lol. Pop the champagne bottles clev fans you stopped them once

[albinoshark]

Lucky-bring back your old Avatar!

[JayDr3am]

Funny, not like I can’t take criticism but Jaydr3am..nothing insane about the play. I’ll do it again next week if the conditions line up like they did yesterday. It didn’t work out, that’s gambling dude. Insane...yeah ok, coming from a guy that is posting 60% losers i college and pro football this year. Way to go jack wagon. Easy to critique a play AFTER it loses.

lmao have been called many things but not a jack wagon.. dude im not here to flame you and talk shit. youre right im having a shit season.. not running from that.. but i posted that right after tiger was talking about a 3rd down.. that was 1st half when browns were down by 6..

you had multiple good plays on the board but that turned out to be the one

[Renegades]

Lets hug it out. Jay seems like a good dude

[JayDr3am]

whats funny is that ive been a follower of lucky for years.. before i ever picked or posted.. when i found out about sbr he was probably the best poster during that year and i would tail some

[Lucky1g]

I get along with everybody. It’s in my nature. I just didn’t like the comment. Maybe I’m just a little sensitive cause I took the 3unit loss hard. I’m my own worst critic, trust me.

[Renegades]

Lets move on and get some W’s. Time for the ugly dogs to start cashing. Lets go!! Damn it