Originally Posted by 2daBank 
week 13
atl pk (2x)... i am almost shocked at myself the falcons are my 2x play of the week. ultimately i believe they are better than they have shown the last month and im on board with the players only meeting working on this team with strong leadership. during this losing streak they have held a edge in yards per play in every contest, out gained them by a combined 250 yards, and mostly out played everyone other than minny. they just continually have shot themselves in the foot with untimely turnovers in bunches.
this losing streak started with a home ot loss to these very bucs, a game where matty ice was 37-45 for damn near 400 yards. falcons out gained tampa by more than 200 yards in this contest, had a 9 min time of possession adv, and were in the red zone 5 times! this was the beginning of the nightmare as they fumbled 4x losing 3 of them and threw a pick in scoring position. the defense was solid as has been the case throughout. they held martin to 3.1 ypc and shamis didnt even throw for 200.
bottom line is this team better than the results have been lately. the mistakes that have plagued them are correctable and uncharacteristic of ryan. they have shown once they can move the ball at will on this tampa team and i believe they will clean up the sloppy play in the red zone vs a tampa team that been playing better away from home and ranks low defending teams in scoring range. unlike the thu night contest this spread has been adjusted for recent results and i believe a little much as i made atl slight favorties and expect them to come in and play one of thier better games this season and keep their playoff hopes alive, 28-20 atl..
oak +3 -120 (1.5x)..kc on fire and i been cashing with them the last 3 weeks while at the same time oak has been in a bit of a funk finally getting back in the winner circle last week when they were basically gifted a game in Tennessee. kc defense has been mostly great, they have a top notch run game regardless who reid plugs in to tote the rock on a given week, and they even managed to get smith to throw the ball down the field last week.
so why in the world do i like the raiders here?
styles make fights and if we can get oak to bring their best effort the raiders passing game matches up incredibly favorably to the chiefs biggest issue on defense, a issue that has been mostly masked by circumstances of opponents that have played right into their hands during this win streak. it no secret kc can flat out rush the qb, top 10 in sack percentage and top 5 the last month. it also known that this secondary can be had if the kc front isnt getting constant immediate pressure.
fact is during this win streak the chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some severely limited passing attacks, sure on the surface facing pit, det, den, sd, and buf doesnt appear like a cakewalk but consider landry jones was the pit qb, lions were still under former oc and sucking something fierce, donks were playing with a battered washed up peyton, chargers had no weapons on the outside and a decimated oline, then last week tyrod and watkins torched these guys in the 1st half, that tyrod taylor and one freaking weapon and that was enough as kc didnt get much pressure. they figured things out at halftime but how hard is that to figure out?
raiders present a much taller order. Carr spreads it around and seems to have another weapon at his disposal with the emergence of roberts to go along with cooper and crabtree. more importantly raiders do a excellent job of protecting carr as he been sacked the lowest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. chiefs also had houston leave last weeks game, doesnt seem likely he will be close to 100% for this game so the best pass protecting line in the nfl will be able to slide more help on hali without having to pay for it. If kc cannot generate pressure Carr will carve this team up.
As well as the kc offense has been playing they do not want to get into a shootout here. going toe to toe with the bills offense is one thing, needing smith to match td's with Carr is another. compounding that problem unlike oak the kc oline does not hold up great in pass protection, only russel wilson has been sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than smith, the oline got a little banged up last week, and no team has been getting to opposing qbs more than the raiders the last 3 weeks. imo this is a really good spot to sell high on the chiefs, i dont even have kc 3 points better on a neutral so i question why they favored at all, this the same damn number we laid with kc vs a out manned and broken down charger team w little to no home field adv 2 weeks ago! this may end being my fav play of the week but for now im taking 1.5u on the +3 before it gone as i dont think it be here long.. lean strongly to the over as well in what i think a fairly high scoring game oak wins 27-23.
nyj/nyg ov 46.5 (1.5x).. you have to go back to the 1st of oct to find a game the jets havnt allowed a team to score 20+, their secondary beat up and been getting torched on a regular basis of late. the gmen pass defense been terrible all season, these clowns are allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air and have the lowest sack percentage in the nfl. in a game that wildly important for both sides and with unseasonably nice weather forecast i smell a sneaky shootout in the making here.
not only do i expect eli and fitz to be putting up numbers but when you get these 2 hacks throwing the ball as much as i would expect in this game you are bound to get a interception or 2 that get taken to the house or at least set up a score for the opposing team. the big time wrs in this game are gonna have a field day, ODB would have clowned on revis but now not only is revis out but the guy replacing him hasnt practiced all week. marshall and decker will roast a nyg secondary cousins just threw for 300 against. i believe we gonna see every bit of 80 passing attempts in this game, possibly more. that many throws to wrs this talented and secondaries this beatable is gonna lead to lots of points! 27-24 somebody.
sea -1.5 (1x)
sea/min un 43 -120 (bought hook) (1.5x).. first off i think there a chance you can wait and get this at 43 in the morning but trying to get my card finished as not sure how much time i will have in morning. the reason i been waiting and want 43 is because that is my absolute high side here and am a little worried of the possibility these teams both get 20 forcing another score. i do think this number is several points high as i made it between 37-41 so i certainly see value at anything above 41.
as i mentioned earlier to me this game resembles the kc/minny game a great deal as sea run defense is similarly stout like the chiefs rush d. anytime minny struggles to get ap and the ground game rolling they are gonna struggle to put up points (see the sf, kc, and gb games). the way to beat sea these days is to spread them out and pick on the coverage holes in the secondary and force chancoler to play coverage. minny simply isnt capable of doing that so sea is gonna be allowed to let cam do what he does best and freelance in run support. teddy b simply doesnt have the weapons to be able to exploit this, sure rudolph has actually been competent lately and you can do work with your te's against sea but that will only get them so far. w/o the aide of special teams or their defense getting them a score i have a very hard time seeing vikings scoring more than 14-17 points here.
on the other side i fully expect minny's d to keep them in the game as i dont see wilson and co lighting up this secondary the way they did steelers suspect group at home. i do however think that rawls is running strong and you can run on this minny front. with the help of the run game i do like sea chances and think wilson will be able to make plays when needed. this gonna be a slug fest, both teams are gonna attempt a lot of rushes and both are gonna have a lot of stalled out drives. i like 20 to be enough to get the W here and that what i think sea will muster in a 20-17 win which why im venturing out and playing side and total here..
kc/oak ov 44.5 (1x).. another game where im on the side and total, i say all the time this is not my favorite thing to do but this week i just cant help it as the sides i like happen to also be the totals i see value in which i guess makes sense. pretty much explained this above talking about the oak play, both offensive strengths match up well with defensive weaknesses in this game. Carr is gonna probably throw it 40+ times and kc struggles defending big time wrs like cooper and crabs. chiefs should keep their offense ahead of the chains with their run game, and the topper for me is a couple guys i respect a great deal think alex smith is gonna have a big performance this week. the 2 games last season hit 44 and i think both offenses are more potent this time around. like the chances this game pushes up into the 50s when all said and done.
