Bankers 2015 NFL

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  • terrortwylight
    SBR MVP
    • 11-04-09
    • 3032

    #701
    As a lifelong Lions fan, I can almost guarantee to that GB wins this game.

    That being said, I'm a glutton for punishment so I'll probably be on the Lions +3.
    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #702
      Originally posted by terrortwylight
      As a lifelong Lions fan, I can almost guarantee to that GB wins this game.

      That being said, I'm a glutton for punishment so I'll probably be on the Lions +3.
      lol. you fans get too emotionally invested, some like harry always think their team gonna win, some lean your way and always expect the worst usually cause they tend to get hopes crushed.. ultimately i think the value lies with the lions as i dont think packers play the last month warrants them laying points here and -3 isnt far off the inflated -9.5 they were laying in gb when det beat them.. so line hasnt even been adjusted for recent play of either team imo which just speaks to the popularity of the pack and ppls mindsets that the "terrible" lions cant possibly beat their hero discount double bitch twice in 3 weeks time.. god i hate that im talking myself into playing this gm, i freaking despise the thu night cash grab..
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #703
        Originally posted by 2daBank
        lol. you fans get too emotionally invested, some like harry always think their team gonna win, some lean your way and always expect the worst usually cause they tend to get hopes crushed.. ultimately i think the value lies with the lions as i dont think packers play the last month warrants them laying points here and -3 isnt far off the inflated -9.5 they were laying in gb when det beat them.. so line hasnt even been adjusted for recent play of either team imo which just speaks to the popularity of the pack and ppls mindsets that the "terrible" lions cant possibly beat their hero discount double bitch twice in 3 weeks time.. god i hate that im talking myself into playing this gm, i freaking despise the thu night cash grab..
        I don't see how the Lions are bettable anymore at +3. Maybe in a tease? Packers just aren't very good anymore, and if I could go back in time, I'd take the +5.5. Not really interested if I'm only getting a FG, though.
        Comment
        • 2daBank
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-26-09
          • 88966

          #704
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          I don't see how the Lions are bettable anymore at +3. Maybe in a tease? Packers just aren't very good anymore, and if I could go back in time, I'd take the +5.5. Not really interested if I'm only getting a FG, though.
          honestly i dont think thu nights ever bettable, even when i feel i have a edge it usually negated by this bs time slot. this week may be the exception since both basically on a regular week playing last thu but i still hate it..

          to me lions plus anything are the right play cause i just dont think pack should be laying here. certainly not what essentially comes out to the same they were laying at home the 1st meeting. that said it thu and not like i trust lions idiot coach to keep them playing at a high level..
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #705
            Originally posted by 2daBank
            honestly i dont think thu nights ever bettable, even when i feel i have a edge it usually negated by this bs time slot. this week may be the exception since both basically on a regular week playing last thu but i still hate it..

            to me lions plus anything are the right play cause i just dont think pack should be laying here. certainly not what essentially comes out to the same they were laying at home the 1st meeting. that said it thu and not like i trust lions idiot coach to keep them playing at a high level..
            Exactly -- and for as "hot" as Stafford is, it likely all goes to hell sooner rather than later.
            Comment
            • 2daBank
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-26-09
              • 88966

              #706
              Originally posted by No coincidences
              Exactly -- and for as "hot" as Stafford is, it likely all goes to hell sooner rather than later.
              i hope not, their schedule is incredibly favorable down the stretch and im counting on him as qb in my biggest payout year long fantasy league! lol. i actually think he plays well rest of the way.
              Comment
              • terrortwylight
                SBR MVP
                • 11-04-09
                • 3032

                #707
                Originally posted by No coincidences
                Exactly -- and for as "hot" as Stafford is, it likely all goes to hell sooner rather than later.
                I just spit a fukcing protein shake all over my desk when I saw you put the word "hot" in parenthesis while talking about Stafford.
                Comment
                • Time is Money
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-03-07
                  • 2255

                  #708
                  Pack -2.5 even money on my book, haha man they're fukkin begging me to take it. Might have to play it at that #
                  Comment
                  • snip3r2006
                    Restricted User
                    • 07-11-11
                    • 776

                    #709
                    Originally posted by Time is Money
                    Pack -2.5 even money on my book, haha man they're fukkin begging me to take it. Might have to play it at that #
                    i'll have a look before gametime ... looks like som big $ on lions rigth now
                    Comment
                    • terrortwylight
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-04-09
                      • 3032

                      #710
                      if it gets down to 1 or pk I may go small on GB
                      Comment
                      • snip3r2006
                        Restricted User
                        • 07-11-11
                        • 776

                        #711
                        Originally posted by terrortwylight
                        if it gets down to 1 or pk I may go small on GB

                        why ??
                        Comment
                        • Notorious_Donk
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-29-11
                          • 2689

                          #712
                          Packers by 1 or pk should be large bet on GB. Not that I'm a Packers fan or anything
                          Comment
                          • snip3r2006
                            Restricted User
                            • 07-11-11
                            • 776

                            #713
                            75% on Packers ... Line Moves.... Did u Ever think about that ?!?

                            Is this a betting Forum ???
                            Comment
                            • fecgp40
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-01-11
                              • 5750

                              #714
                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                              lol. you fans get too emotionally invested, some like harry always think their team gonna win, some lean your way and always expect the worst usually cause they tend to get hopes crushed.. ultimately i think the value lies with the lions as i dont think packers play the last month warrants them laying points here and -3 isnt far off the inflated -9.5 they were laying in gb when det beat them.. so line hasnt even been adjusted for recent play of either team imo which just speaks to the popularity of the pack and ppls mindsets that the "terrible" lions cant possibly beat their hero discount double bitch twice in 3 weeks time.. god i hate that im talking myself into playing this gm, i freaking despise the thu night cash grab..
                              Bank... love your thread bro. Don't post much but been following all year. I don't always agree with you or follow all your plays, but I love your write-ups and insight. That being said, had I blindly followed all your plays this year I would certainly be better off than I am now. LOL. While what you say makes sense, I just can't see backing Detroit here. GB or nothing for me. Yeah I know... discount double bitch a public darling and all that, but he is a GREAT player. Matt Stafford, not so much. I realize Detroit been playing well and all, but I see this as a repeat of the Vikings/Packers game. GL with your plays.
                              Comment
                              • Twiz
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 10-22-13
                                • 442

                                #715
                                You dead on tonight bank. Lions or nothing. No such thing as a guaranteed winner...but such thing as value and there's no value in GB here...Think Rodgers will figure out detroit D a little more than last game but I think Stafford will do the same. 24-23 either way. BoL if you decide to play.
                                Comment
                                • fecgp40
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-01-11
                                  • 5750

                                  #716
                                  Sure looks like Bank is dead on after the first 7 minutes.
                                  Comment
                                  • 2daBank
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 88966

                                    #717
                                    Originally posted by fecgp40
                                    Sure looks like Bank is dead on after the first 7 minutes.
                                    im so glad i passed, that would have put me in such a bad mood to start the week. lol. lions and under killed on a phantom face mask then a hail mary on a time expired play that should have never happened.. had a feeling that game was gonna be fukked up..
                                    Comment
                                    • 2daBank
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-26-09
                                      • 88966

                                      #718
                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                      week 13

                                      oak +3 -120 (1.5x)..kc on fire and i been cashing with them the last 3 weeks while at the same time oak has been in a bit of a funk finally getting back in the winner circle last week when they were basically gifted a game in Tennessee. kc defense has been mostly great, they have a top notch run game regardless who reid plugs in to tote the rock on a given week, and they even managed to get smith to throw the ball down the field last week.

                                      so why in the world do i like the raiders here?

                                      styles make fights and if we can get oak to bring their best effort the raiders passing game matches up incredibly favorably to the chiefs biggest issue on defense, a issue that has been mostly masked by circumstances of opponents that have played right into their hands during this win streak. it no secret kc can flat out rush the qb, top 10 in sack percentage and top 5 the last month. it also known that this secondary can be had if the kc front isnt getting constant immediate pressure.
                                      fact is during this win streak the chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some severely limited passing attacks, sure on the surface facing pit, det, den, sd, and buf doesnt appear like a cakewalk but consider landry jones was the pit qb, lions were still under former oc and sucking something fierce, donks were playing with a battered washed up peyton, chargers had no weapons on the outside and a decimated oline, then last week tyrod and watkins torched these guys in the 1st half, that tyrod taylor and one freaking weapon and that was enough as kc didnt get much pressure. they figured things out at halftime but how hard is that to figure out?

                                      raiders present a much taller order. Carr spreads it around and seems to have another weapon at his disposal with the emergence of roberts to go along with cooper and crabtree. more importantly raiders do a excellent job of protecting carr as he been sacked the lowest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. chiefs also had houston leave last weeks game, doesnt seem likely he will be close to 100% for this game so the best pass protecting line in the nfl will be able to slide more help on hali without having to pay for it. If kc cannot generate pressure Carr will carve this team up.

                                      As well as the kc offense has been playing they do not want to get into a shootout here. going toe to toe with the bills offense is one thing, needing smith to match td's with Carr is another. compounding that problem unlike oak the kc oline does not hold up great in pass protection, only russel wilson has been sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than smith, the oline got a little banged up last week, and no team has been getting to opposing qbs more than the raiders the last 3 weeks. imo this is a really good spot to sell high on the chiefs, i dont even have kc 3 points better on a neutral so i question why they favored at all, this the same damn number we laid with kc vs a out manned and broken down charger team w little to no home field adv 2 weeks ago! this may end being my fav play of the week but for now im taking 1.5u on the +3 before it gone as i dont think it be here long.. lean strongly to the over as well in what i think a fairly high scoring game oak wins 27-23.
                                      nyj/nyg ov 46.5 (1.5x).. you have to go back to the 1st of oct to find a game the jets havnt allowed a team to score 20+, their secondary beat up and been getting torched on a regular basis of late. the gmen pass defense been terrible all season, these clowns are allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air and have the lowest sack percentage in the nfl. in a game that wildly important for both sides and with unseasonably nice weather forecast i smell a sneaky shootout in the making here.

                                      not only do i expect eli and fitz to be putting up numbers but when you get these 2 hacks throwing the ball as much as i would expect in this game you are bound to get a interception or 2 that get taken to the house or at least set up a score for the opposing team. the big time wrs in this game are gonna have a field day, ODB would have clowned on revis but now not only is revis out but the guy replacing him hasnt practiced all week. marshall and decker will roast a nyg secondary cousins just threw for 300 against. i believe we gonna see every bit of 80 passing attempts in this game, possibly more. that many throws to wrs this talented and secondaries this beatable is gonna lead to lots of points! 27-24 somebody.
                                      Comment
                                      • 2daBank
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 01-26-09
                                        • 88966

                                        #719
                                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                                        Originally Posted by 2daBank
                                        week 13

                                        oak +3 -120 (1.5x)..kc on fire and i been cashing with them the last 3 weeks while at the same time oak has been in a bit of a funk finally getting back in the winner circle last week when they were basically gifted a game in Tennessee. kc defense has been mostly great, they have a top notch run game regardless who reid plugs in to tote the rock on a given week, and they even managed to get smith to throw the ball down the field last week.

                                        so why in the world do i like the raiders here?

                                        styles make fights and if we can get oak to bring their best effort the raiders passing game matches up incredibly favorably to the chiefs biggest issue on defense, a issue that has been mostly masked by circumstances of opponents that have played right into their hands during this win streak. it no secret kc can flat out rush the qb, top 10 in sack percentage and top 5 the last month. it also known that this secondary can be had if the kc front isnt getting constant immediate pressure.
                                        fact is during this win streak the chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some severely limited passing attacks, sure on the surface facing pit, det, den, sd, and buf doesnt appear like a cakewalk but consider landry jones was the pit qb, lions were still under former oc and sucking something fierce, donks were playing with a battered washed up peyton, chargers had no weapons on the outside and a decimated oline, then last week tyrod and watkins torched these guys in the 1st half, that tyrod taylor and one freaking weapon and that was enough as kc didnt get much pressure. they figured things out at halftime but how hard is that to figure out?

                                        raiders present a much taller order. Carr spreads it around and seems to have another weapon at his disposal with the emergence of roberts to go along with cooper and crabtree. more importantly raiders do a excellent job of protecting carr as he been sacked the lowest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. chiefs also had houston leave last weeks game, doesnt seem likely he will be close to 100% for this game so the best pass protecting line in the nfl will be able to slide more help on hali without having to pay for it. If kc cannot generate pressure Carr will carve this team up.

                                        As well as the kc offense has been playing they do not want to get into a shootout here. going toe to toe with the bills offense is one thing, needing smith to match td's with Carr is another. compounding that problem unlike oak the kc oline does not hold up great in pass protection, only russel wilson has been sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than smith, the oline got a little banged up last week, and no team has been getting to opposing qbs more than the raiders the last 3 weeks. imo this is a really good spot to sell high on the chiefs, i dont even have kc 3 points better on a neutral so i question why they favored at all, this the same damn number we laid with kc vs a out manned and broken down charger team w little to no home field adv 2 weeks ago! this may end being my fav play of the week but for now im taking 1.5u on the +3 before it gone as i dont think it be here long.. lean strongly to the over as well in what i think a fairly high scoring game oak wins 27-23.


                                        nyj/nyg ov 46.5 (1.5x).. you have to go back to the 1st of oct to find a game the jets havnt allowed a team to score 20+, their secondary beat up and been getting torched on a regular basis of late. the gmen pass defense been terrible all season, these clowns are allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air and have the lowest sack percentage in the nfl. in a game that wildly important for both sides and with unseasonably nice weather forecast i smell a sneaky shootout in the making here.

                                        not only do i expect eli and fitz to be putting up numbers but when you get these 2 hacks throwing the ball as much as i would expect in this game you are bound to get a interception or 2 that get taken to the house or at least set up a score for the opposing team. the big time wrs in this game are gonna have a field day, ODB would have clowned on revis but now not only is revis out but the guy replacing him hasnt practiced all week. marshall and decker will roast a nyg secondary cousins just threw for 300 against. i believe we gonna see every bit of 80 passing attempts in this game, possibly more. that many throws to wrs this talented and secondaries this beatable is gonna lead to lots of points! 27-24 somebody.
                                        atl pk (2x)... i am almost shocked at myself the falcons are my 2x play of the week. ultimately i believe they are better than they have shown the last month and im on board with the players only meeting working on this team with strong leadership. during this losing streak they have held a edge in yards per play in every contest, out gained them by a combined 250 yards, and mostly out played everyone other than minny. they just continually have shot themselves in the foot with untimely turnovers in bunches.

                                        this losing streak started with a home ot loss to these very bucs, a game where matty ice was 37-45 for damn near 400 yards. falcons out gained tampa by more than 200 yards in this contest, had a 9 min time of possession adv, and were in the red zone 5 times! this was the beginning of the nightmare as they fumbled 4x losing 3 of them and threw a pick in scoring position. the defense was solid as has been the case throughout. they held martin to 3.1 ypc and shamis didnt even throw for 200.

                                        bottom line is this team better than the results have been lately. the mistakes that have plagued them are correctable and uncharacteristic of ryan. they have shown once they can move the ball at will on this tampa team and i believe they will clean up the sloppy play in the red zone vs a tampa team that been playing better away from home and ranks low defending teams in scoring range. unlike the thu night contest this spread has been adjusted for recent results and i believe a little much as i made atl slight favorties and expect them to come in and play one of thier better games this season and keep their playoff hopes alive, 28-20 atl..
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #720
                                          Originally posted by 2daBank
                                          Originally Posted by 2daBank
                                          week 13

                                          atl pk (2x)... i am almost shocked at myself the falcons are my 2x play of the week. ultimately i believe they are better than they have shown the last month and im on board with the players only meeting working on this team with strong leadership. during this losing streak they have held a edge in yards per play in every contest, out gained them by a combined 250 yards, and mostly out played everyone other than minny. they just continually have shot themselves in the foot with untimely turnovers in bunches.

                                          this losing streak started with a home ot loss to these very bucs, a game where matty ice was 37-45 for damn near 400 yards. falcons out gained tampa by more than 200 yards in this contest, had a 9 min time of possession adv, and were in the red zone 5 times! this was the beginning of the nightmare as they fumbled 4x losing 3 of them and threw a pick in scoring position. the defense was solid as has been the case throughout. they held martin to 3.1 ypc and shamis didnt even throw for 200.

                                          bottom line is this team better than the results have been lately. the mistakes that have plagued them are correctable and uncharacteristic of ryan. they have shown once they can move the ball at will on this tampa team and i believe they will clean up the sloppy play in the red zone vs a tampa team that been playing better away from home and ranks low defending teams in scoring range. unlike the thu night contest this spread has been adjusted for recent results and i believe a little much as i made atl slight favorties and expect them to come in and play one of thier better games this season and keep their playoff hopes alive, 28-20 atl..



                                          oak +3 -120 (1.5x)..kc on fire and i been cashing with them the last 3 weeks while at the same time oak has been in a bit of a funk finally getting back in the winner circle last week when they were basically gifted a game in Tennessee. kc defense has been mostly great, they have a top notch run game regardless who reid plugs in to tote the rock on a given week, and they even managed to get smith to throw the ball down the field last week.

                                          so why in the world do i like the raiders here?

                                          styles make fights and if we can get oak to bring their best effort the raiders passing game matches up incredibly favorably to the chiefs biggest issue on defense, a issue that has been mostly masked by circumstances of opponents that have played right into their hands during this win streak. it no secret kc can flat out rush the qb, top 10 in sack percentage and top 5 the last month. it also known that this secondary can be had if the kc front isnt getting constant immediate pressure.
                                          fact is during this win streak the chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some severely limited passing attacks, sure on the surface facing pit, det, den, sd, and buf doesnt appear like a cakewalk but consider landry jones was the pit qb, lions were still under former oc and sucking something fierce, donks were playing with a battered washed up peyton, chargers had no weapons on the outside and a decimated oline, then last week tyrod and watkins torched these guys in the 1st half, that tyrod taylor and one freaking weapon and that was enough as kc didnt get much pressure. they figured things out at halftime but how hard is that to figure out?

                                          raiders present a much taller order. Carr spreads it around and seems to have another weapon at his disposal with the emergence of roberts to go along with cooper and crabtree. more importantly raiders do a excellent job of protecting carr as he been sacked the lowest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. chiefs also had houston leave last weeks game, doesnt seem likely he will be close to 100% for this game so the best pass protecting line in the nfl will be able to slide more help on hali without having to pay for it. If kc cannot generate pressure Carr will carve this team up.

                                          As well as the kc offense has been playing they do not want to get into a shootout here. going toe to toe with the bills offense is one thing, needing smith to match td's with Carr is another. compounding that problem unlike oak the kc oline does not hold up great in pass protection, only russel wilson has been sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than smith, the oline got a little banged up last week, and no team has been getting to opposing qbs more than the raiders the last 3 weeks. imo this is a really good spot to sell high on the chiefs, i dont even have kc 3 points better on a neutral so i question why they favored at all, this the same damn number we laid with kc vs a out manned and broken down charger team w little to no home field adv 2 weeks ago! this may end being my fav play of the week but for now im taking 1.5u on the +3 before it gone as i dont think it be here long.. lean strongly to the over as well in what i think a fairly high scoring game oak wins 27-23.


                                          nyj/nyg ov 46.5 (1.5x).. you have to go back to the 1st of oct to find a game the jets havnt allowed a team to score 20+, their secondary beat up and been getting torched on a regular basis of late. the gmen pass defense been terrible all season, these clowns are allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air and have the lowest sack percentage in the nfl. in a game that wildly important for both sides and with unseasonably nice weather forecast i smell a sneaky shootout in the making here.

                                          not only do i expect eli and fitz to be putting up numbers but when you get these 2 hacks throwing the ball as much as i would expect in this game you are bound to get a interception or 2 that get taken to the house or at least set up a score for the opposing team. the big time wrs in this game are gonna have a field day, ODB would have clowned on revis but now not only is revis out but the guy replacing him hasnt practiced all week. marshall and decker will roast a nyg secondary cousins just threw for 300 against. i believe we gonna see every bit of 80 passing attempts in this game, possibly more. that many throws to wrs this talented and secondaries this beatable is gonna lead to lots of points! 27-24 somebody.
                                          sea -1.5 (1x)
                                          sea/min un 43 -120 (bought hook) (1.5x).. first off i think there a chance you can wait and get this at 43 in the morning but trying to get my card finished as not sure how much time i will have in morning. the reason i been waiting and want 43 is because that is my absolute high side here and am a little worried of the possibility these teams both get 20 forcing another score. i do think this number is several points high as i made it between 37-41 so i certainly see value at anything above 41.

                                          as i mentioned earlier to me this game resembles the kc/minny game a great deal as sea run defense is similarly stout like the chiefs rush d. anytime minny struggles to get ap and the ground game rolling they are gonna struggle to put up points (see the sf, kc, and gb games). the way to beat sea these days is to spread them out and pick on the coverage holes in the secondary and force chancoler to play coverage. minny simply isnt capable of doing that so sea is gonna be allowed to let cam do what he does best and freelance in run support. teddy b simply doesnt have the weapons to be able to exploit this, sure rudolph has actually been competent lately and you can do work with your te's against sea but that will only get them so far. w/o the aide of special teams or their defense getting them a score i have a very hard time seeing vikings scoring more than 14-17 points here.

                                          on the other side i fully expect minny's d to keep them in the game as i dont see wilson and co lighting up this secondary the way they did steelers suspect group at home. i do however think that rawls is running strong and you can run on this minny front. with the help of the run game i do like sea chances and think wilson will be able to make plays when needed. this gonna be a slug fest, both teams are gonna attempt a lot of rushes and both are gonna have a lot of stalled out drives. i like 20 to be enough to get the W here and that what i think sea will muster in a 20-17 win which why im venturing out and playing side and total here..
                                          Comment
                                          • 16kredit
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 11-16-13
                                            • 572

                                            #721
                                            great write up Banks as always
                                            Any leans, or plays on Denver against San Diego?
                                            I think while Osweiler is a decent QB will he keep this up for the rest of the season? Eventually he will show some flaw and why not on the road in a division clash. SD has fared okay against the pass. If this is going to be a low scoring game I'd gladly take the points. And if a shootout would happen well I want to side with the overall better QB. WR's are good on both sides (Counting TE-s too). For running backs really depend on which will show up. Would love to see Gordon get loose.
                                            Any thoughts?
                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #722
                                              Originally posted by 16kredit
                                              great write up Banks as always
                                              Any leans, or plays on Denver against San Diego?
                                              I think while Osweiler is a decent QB will he keep this up for the rest of the season? Eventually he will show some flaw and why not on the road in a division clash. SD has fared okay against the pass. If this is going to be a low scoring game I'd gladly take the points. And if a shootout would happen well I want to side with the overall better QB. WR's are good on both sides (Counting TE-s too). For running backs really depend on which will show up. Would love to see Gordon get loose.
                                              Any thoughts?
                                              the thing about osweiler is what makes him so valuable isnt necessarily his ability to throw so much as the fact that he lines up under center and runs kubiaks offense. he doesnt have to be great, hell when the last time kukiak had a great qb? he just has to run the offense and i think that even more true this week against chargers miserable rush defense.

                                              donks feel ultra square off the big win over pats and only laying 3.5-4 to these bums but i just cant justify playing chargers when i think den rushes for close to 200 yards. run game and defense travel, it no secret who holds the edge in both those phases in this game. maybe the fact sd doesnt have any go to weapons on the outside negates donks shutdown secondary? lol. i dunno, it hard for me to find a lot of points for sd but i could see them compete using the te's and woodhead out of the backfield if they can get a solid game out of gordon (might be a stretch considering how bad he been). i do believe for them to stay in this one it has to be a lower scoring grind it out affair cause i just dont see them lighting up the donks d. problem is i dont trust them to be able to slow down the donks 2 headed rushing attack.
                                              Comment
                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #723
                                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                Originally Posted by 2daBank
                                                week 13

                                                atl pk (2x)... i am almost shocked at myself the falcons are my 2x play of the week. ultimately i believe they are better than they have shown the last month and im on board with the players only meeting working on this team with strong leadership. during this losing streak they have held a edge in yards per play in every contest, out gained them by a combined 250 yards, and mostly out played everyone other than minny. they just continually have shot themselves in the foot with untimely turnovers in bunches.

                                                this losing streak started with a home ot loss to these very bucs, a game where matty ice was 37-45 for damn near 400 yards. falcons out gained tampa by more than 200 yards in this contest, had a 9 min time of possession adv, and were in the red zone 5 times! this was the beginning of the nightmare as they fumbled 4x losing 3 of them and threw a pick in scoring position. the defense was solid as has been the case throughout. they held martin to 3.1 ypc and shamis didnt even throw for 200.

                                                bottom line is this team better than the results have been lately. the mistakes that have plagued them are correctable and uncharacteristic of ryan. they have shown once they can move the ball at will on this tampa team and i believe they will clean up the sloppy play in the red zone vs a tampa team that been playing better away from home and ranks low defending teams in scoring range. unlike the thu night contest this spread has been adjusted for recent results and i believe a little much as i made atl slight favorties and expect them to come in and play one of thier better games this season and keep their playoff hopes alive, 28-20 atl..



                                                oak +3 -120 (1.5x)..kc on fire and i been cashing with them the last 3 weeks while at the same time oak has been in a bit of a funk finally getting back in the winner circle last week when they were basically gifted a game in Tennessee. kc defense has been mostly great, they have a top notch run game regardless who reid plugs in to tote the rock on a given week, and they even managed to get smith to throw the ball down the field last week.

                                                so why in the world do i like the raiders here?

                                                styles make fights and if we can get oak to bring their best effort the raiders passing game matches up incredibly favorably to the chiefs biggest issue on defense, a issue that has been mostly masked by circumstances of opponents that have played right into their hands during this win streak. it no secret kc can flat out rush the qb, top 10 in sack percentage and top 5 the last month. it also known that this secondary can be had if the kc front isnt getting constant immediate pressure.
                                                fact is during this win streak the chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some severely limited passing attacks, sure on the surface facing pit, det, den, sd, and buf doesnt appear like a cakewalk but consider landry jones was the pit qb, lions were still under former oc and sucking something fierce, donks were playing with a battered washed up peyton, chargers had no weapons on the outside and a decimated oline, then last week tyrod and watkins torched these guys in the 1st half, that tyrod taylor and one freaking weapon and that was enough as kc didnt get much pressure. they figured things out at halftime but how hard is that to figure out?

                                                raiders present a much taller order. Carr spreads it around and seems to have another weapon at his disposal with the emergence of roberts to go along with cooper and crabtree. more importantly raiders do a excellent job of protecting carr as he been sacked the lowest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. chiefs also had houston leave last weeks game, doesnt seem likely he will be close to 100% for this game so the best pass protecting line in the nfl will be able to slide more help on hali without having to pay for it. If kc cannot generate pressure Carr will carve this team up.

                                                As well as the kc offense has been playing they do not want to get into a shootout here. going toe to toe with the bills offense is one thing, needing smith to match td's with Carr is another. compounding that problem unlike oak the kc oline does not hold up great in pass protection, only russel wilson has been sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than smith, the oline got a little banged up last week, and no team has been getting to opposing qbs more than the raiders the last 3 weeks. imo this is a really good spot to sell high on the chiefs, i dont even have kc 3 points better on a neutral so i question why they favored at all, this the same damn number we laid with kc vs a out manned and broken down charger team w little to no home field adv 2 weeks ago! this may end being my fav play of the week but for now im taking 1.5u on the +3 before it gone as i dont think it be here long.. lean strongly to the over as well in what i think a fairly high scoring game oak wins 27-23.


                                                nyj/nyg ov 46.5 (1.5x).. you have to go back to the 1st of oct to find a game the jets havnt allowed a team to score 20+, their secondary beat up and been getting torched on a regular basis of late. the gmen pass defense been terrible all season, these clowns are allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air and have the lowest sack percentage in the nfl. in a game that wildly important for both sides and with unseasonably nice weather forecast i smell a sneaky shootout in the making here.

                                                not only do i expect eli and fitz to be putting up numbers but when you get these 2 hacks throwing the ball as much as i would expect in this game you are bound to get a interception or 2 that get taken to the house or at least set up a score for the opposing team. the big time wrs in this game are gonna have a field day, ODB would have clowned on revis but now not only is revis out but the guy replacing him hasnt practiced all week. marshall and decker will roast a nyg secondary cousins just threw for 300 against. i believe we gonna see every bit of 80 passing attempts in this game, possibly more. that many throws to wrs this talented and secondaries this beatable is gonna lead to lots of points! 27-24 somebody.



                                                sea -1.5 (1x)
                                                sea/min un 43 -120 (bought hook) (1.5x).. first off i think there a chance you can wait and get this at 43 in the morning but trying to get my card finished as not sure how much time i will have in morning. the reason i been waiting and want 43 is because that is my absolute high side here and am a little worried of the possibility these teams both get 20 forcing another score. i do think this number is several points high as i made it between 37-41 so i certainly see value at anything above 41.

                                                as i mentioned earlier to me this game resembles the kc/minny game a great deal as sea run defense is similarly stout like the chiefs rush d. anytime minny struggles to get ap and the ground game rolling they are gonna struggle to put up points (see the sf, kc, and gb games). the way to beat sea these days is to spread them out and pick on the coverage holes in the secondary and force chancoler to play coverage. minny simply isnt capable of doing that so sea is gonna be allowed to let cam do what he does best and freelance in run support. teddy b simply doesnt have the weapons to be able to exploit this, sure rudolph has actually been competent lately and you can do work with your te's against sea but that will only get them so far. w/o the aide of special teams or their defense getting them a score i have a very hard time seeing vikings scoring more than 14-17 points here.

                                                on the other side i fully expect minny's d to keep them in the game as i dont see wilson and co lighting up this secondary the way they did steelers suspect group at home. i do however think that rawls is running strong and you can run on this minny front. with the help of the run game i do like sea chances and think wilson will be able to make plays when needed. this gonna be a slug fest, both teams are gonna attempt a lot of rushes and both are gonna have a lot of stalled out drives. i like 20 to be enough to get the W here and that what i think sea will muster in a 20-17 win which why im venturing out and playing side and total here..
                                                kc/oak ov 44.5 (1x).. another game where im on the side and total, i say all the time this is not my favorite thing to do but this week i just cant help it as the sides i like happen to also be the totals i see value in which i guess makes sense. pretty much explained this above talking about the oak play, both offensive strengths match up well with defensive weaknesses in this game. Carr is gonna probably throw it 40+ times and kc struggles defending big time wrs like cooper and crabs. chiefs should keep their offense ahead of the chains with their run game, and the topper for me is a couple guys i respect a great deal think alex smith is gonna have a big performance this week. the 2 games last season hit 44 and i think both offenses are more potent this time around. like the chances this game pushes up into the 50s when all said and done.
                                                Comment
                                                • Bbr
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-17-10
                                                  • 3900

                                                  #724
                                                  great analysis in this thread here OP. All the best for continued success. Following.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 2daBank
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 88966

                                                    #725
                                                    Originally posted by Bbr
                                                    great analysis in this thread here OP. All the best for continued success. Following.
                                                    appreciate the kind words. gl
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 2daBank
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 88966

                                                      #726
                                                      i been playing a few props lately when im doing dfs lineups and come across something i like. havnt posted many and not counting them toward my record but curious if anyone runs across any they like.

                                                      i played julious thomas ov 4.5 receptions -115. he been getting more targets lately and with hurns out think he in line to see a bigger boast, titans susceptible to te's and teams #2 wr which he may qualify as both in this one.. really like his 4k price tag as well so he in about 50% of my lineups. (also like kelce a great deal).
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Eddy Munny
                                                        Benched
                                                        • 08-13-13
                                                        • 15769

                                                        #727
                                                        GL Bank, l like all of the plays except the Atlanta one. I could easily be wrong about that game but I just don't see any significant edge for the Falcons and I truly believe they are a mediocre team. With Hankerson out, they really only have one weapon on the outside for Matty Ice to throw to. Bucs get Sefarian Jenkins back this week too... It feels like a game that could go either way imo but I lean towards the home team here.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • magnumsr35
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 07-26-14
                                                          • 250

                                                          #728
                                                          I love Oakland today as well.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • magnumsr35
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 07-26-14
                                                            • 250

                                                            #729
                                                            Also kind of liking the pathetic teams today lol. Browns and Eagles. Maybe even the colts tonight.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 16kredit
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-16-13
                                                              • 572

                                                              #730
                                                              colts pathetic? 4-0 with hasselback. If line stays +9 Im buyin to 10 and feel comfortable regardless of the outcome.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #731
                                                                Originally posted by Eddy Munny
                                                                GL Bank, l like all of the plays except the Atlanta one. I could easily be wrong about that game but I just don't see any significant edge for the Falcons and I truly believe they are a mediocre team. With Hankerson out, they really only have one weapon on the outside for Matty Ice to throw to. Bucs get Sefarian Jenkins back this week too... It feels like a game that could go either way imo but I lean towards the home team here.
                                                                i certainly dont think they much better than mediocre, lol. significant injuries to a bucs defense that matty ice has roasted the last 3 meetings is a big deal to me. i also think bucs and particularly shamis been better on the road. maybe im a sucker for the players only meeting being the capper but fact is atl out played opposition in several of their losses and just shot themselves in the foot with red zone turnovers which i think they clean up today. case could be made they also were lucky in a few of their wins as well tho. i still think their fate is sealed as missing the playoffs seeing how they play panthers twice still, i just think this veteran group will do what it takes to keep their hopes alive against a young bucs team. the over certainly has some appeal as well imo. gl today bro
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 2daBank
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-26-09
                                                                  • 88966

                                                                  #732
                                                                  Originally posted by magnumsr35
                                                                  Also kind of liking the pathetic teams today lol. Browns and Eagles. Maybe even the colts tonight.
                                                                  i certainly wouldnt lay the points against any of them. im glad i like enough plays i dont have to trust any of them either tho, lol...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • magnumsr35
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 07-26-14
                                                                    • 250

                                                                    #733
                                                                    Not saying the colts are pathetic just mentioned them after the Browns and Eagles. I do like the colts today. Def love the raiders and Browns today. I will play the colts too eventually. Still looking over things. Kind of like the bills and chargers. But gl banker. U know u are one of the few guys I respect and follow week to week. Let's get it today
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SEAHAWKHARRY
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 11-29-07
                                                                      • 26069

                                                                      #734
                                                                      Good luck today banker
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • 2daBank
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-26-09
                                                                        • 88966

                                                                        #735
                                                                        there that move to 43 on the sea total i figured was coming. hopefully anyone tailing waited on it. (hopefully it doesnt come back to bite me in the ass in BTP, just wasnt sure i was gonna be around this morning due to life stuff. lol).
                                                                        Comment
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