2013 Correlation Handicapping System

[ny92mike]

Right Mike I might be being bloody stupid here but firstly what is ATS/w probability and secondly how do I work out those selections. Apologies if this is obvious but any help would be much appreciated.

No worries, its confusing.

With this formula it is trying to project the score of the game. The ATS/ w probability is basically the standard deviation of the projected score difference and the vegas line.


For example: The washington vs philly game the spread is - 3.5 Philly. My projected score shows a much higher difference of about 7 or 8 points difference.

In the end, the STD and ATS/ w probability is just selecting the match ups that differ more from my projected score and that of the spread.

You need to account that injuries are not calculated into this formula.

Hope that helps.

[ny92mike]

I'll take a push.

[legend210]

Many thanks Mike. That's made it very clear and I should have said before I'm really enjoying your work!

Cheers mate.

[ny92mike]

Many thanks Mike. That's made it very clear and I should have said before I'm really enjoying your work!

Cheers mate.

Thanks. It isn't a perfect system by any means. But I'm finding ways to fine tune.

[steel26]

Nothing is perfect. Thanks for hard work and keep hitting them.

[Ytown6]

Who do you like this week?

[ny92mike]

Who do you like this week?

4 team teaser

TAMPA BAY +8

BUFFALO +4½

DETROIT +4½

PHILADELPHIA +2½

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)

TAMPA BAY +2

BUFFALO -1½

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)

DETROIT -1½

PHILADELPHIA -3½

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)

MIAMI +1½

CHICAGO -3

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)

CINCINNATI -5½

OAKLAND +7

ARIZONA -6½

STRAIGHT BET

OAKLAND +7

STRAIGHT BET

DENVER -8

STRAIGHT BET

SEATTLE -12

STRAIGHT BET

TAMPA BAY +2

STRAIGHT BET

BUFFALO -1½

STRAIGHT BET

DETROIT -1½

STRAIGHT BET

PHILADELPHIA -3½

STRAIGHT BET

MIAMI +1½

STRAIGHT BET

CHICAGO -3

STRAIGHT BET

CINCINNATI -5½

STRAIGHT BET

ARIZONA -6½

[ny92mike]

Took the winnings a dropped it on denver.

Its hitting this week so I"m going to chase it.

[legend210]

Wow what a week you've had Mike! Well done!

[ny92mike]

Wow what a week you've had Mike! Well done!

Yeah...there was a few games I tried to stay away from that the system was picking. Giants being one of them.

I loaded down again with some more afternoon games and it worked out well.


Don't like the systems pick for monday so I probably won't spend any on that game.

[steel26]

Helluva job.. Keep it coming.

[ny92mike]

Week 11 Results

Week 11 Results
Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	15	11	4	73%
Over/ Under	15	11	4	73%
ATS	13	10	3	77%
ATS w/ Probability	5	3	2	60%
ATS w/ STD	2	1	1	50%
Score Probability	4	3	1	75%
Combo	11	7	4	64%
Year to Date Results
Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	142	84	58	59%
Over/ Under	142	80	62	56%
ATS	138	79	59	57%
ATS w/ Probability	61	32	29	52%
ATS w/ STD	36	22	14	61%
Score Probability	23	15	8	65%
Combo	39	23	16	59%

System worked great this week. It was a bit off on the ats w/ std and ats w/ prob but that was expected with some injuries and teams playing better.

[ny92mike]

Helluva job.. Keep it coming.

Thanks man.....just posted the results for that week, check it out. Very good week.

[ny92mike]

Week 12 Projections

Coming off a great week. Lets keep it rolling!

Note: I changed the "Bet" in columns Score Probability and Combo to "Good". The reason for this is because, it was just distracting....OCD kicking in or something.

Also added a column Projected V. Spread to the projections. The reason, I just got tired of jumping pages to look it up. So now that my crazy is out of the way.

Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Projected V. Spread	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.	Score Probability	SCN	Combo
Week_12 | NewOrleansSaints @ AtlantaFalcons	-9.0	53.0	-8.1	AtlantaFalcons	77%	4.9	NewOrleansSaints	Under		-38.9	Good
Week_12 | PittsburghSteelers @ ClevelandBrowns	1.0	40.0	1.2	ClevelandBrowns	23%	0.4	ClevelandBrowns	Over	Good	-2.0	Good
Week_12 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ DetroitLions	9.0	49.0	-1.0	TampaBayBuccaneers	100%	9.5	DetroitLions	Under		28.4
Week_12 | MinnesotaVikings @ GreenBayPackers	5.0	43.5	12.9	GreenBayPackers	38%	1.5	GreenBayPackers	Over		22.4	Good
Week_12 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ HoustonTexans	10.0	43.5	9.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	85%	5.2	HoustonTexans	Over	Good	17.0	Good
Week_12 | SanDiegoChargers @ KansasCityChiefs	4.5	41.5	8.5	KansasCityChiefs	8%	0.3	KansasCityChiefs	Over	Good	4.5	Good
Week_12 | CarolinaPanthers @ MiamiDolphins	-4.0	41.0	-7.6	CarolinaPanthers	0%	0.2	CarolinaPanthers	Over		-14.0
Week_12 | ChicagoBears @ StLouisRams	2.0	45.5	-2.7	ChicagoBears	62%	3.3	ChicagoBears	Under		-8.5	Good
Week_12 | NewYorkJets @ BaltimoreRavens	3.5	38.5	8.1	BaltimoreRavens	31%	0.6	BaltimoreRavens	Over		4.0	Good
Week_12 | IndianapolisColts @ ArizonaCardinals	2.5	45.0	1.2	IndianapolisColts	54%	1.9	ArizonaCardinals	Under		-2.1
Week_12 | TennesseeTitans @ OaklandRaiders	1.0	41.5	1.3	OaklandRaiders	15%	0.3	TennesseeTitans	Over	Good	-3.7	Good
Week_12 | DallasCowboys @ NewYorkGiants	2.5	44.5	-4.3	DallasCowboys	69%	4.7	DallasCowboys	Over		-9.9	Good
Week_12 | DenverBroncos @ NewEnglandPatriots	-2.5	53.5	-1.5	NewEnglandPatriots	46%	1.8	NewEnglandPatriots	Under		-6.5	Good
Week_12 | SanFrancisco49ers @ WashingtonRedskins	-6.0	47.0	1.0	WashingtonRedskins	92%	6.5	WashingtonRedskins	Under		-4.2	Good

I won't be making my bets until later today, but what jumped out was the NO vs Atl game, the system came up an "error" when projecting its score. So in order to generate a score I had to push the SCN down a bit. With an SCN that high this could be a lock but because of the error I'm going to avoid this game in any type of parlay or teaser.

Cleveland / Jacksonville / Chicago / Colts / Oakland all look to make for a good teaser bet as the projected ats and vegas are really close. Slide the extra points around and it could pay out.

Spreads are tight this week; a little too tight. May skip out on betting hard this week. I'll still take a stab at a good bit of them though.

Hope this helps and GL this week.

[Ytown6]

Tampa Bay

Is TB a strong play with an ATS probability of 100% and an STD of 9.5?

[ny92mike]

Is TB a strong play with an ATS probability of 100% and an STD of 9.5?

Yes.

[ny92mike]

Should of followed the system and loaded up on Thursday night game. Still got a little on the under.

[thetitanlb]

Can you please post your picks for this week. I also have been following for a while and im hoping your picks help clarify some of my questions. Thanks

[ny92mike]

4 TEAM TEASER JACKSONVILLE +16 CLEVELAND +5 TENNESSEE +7 INDIANAPOLIS +8½

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) TAMPA BAY +9 GREEN BAY -5

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) KANSAS CITY -4½ CAROLINA -4

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) CHICAGO +2 BALTIMORE -3½

STRAIGHT BET TAMPA BAY +9

STRAIGHT BET JACKSONVILLE +10

STRAIGHT BET WASHINGTON +6

I'll likely make some more straight bets on the earlier games. Just not sure exactly where to go. System is projecting some tight games this week.

Hope that helps.

[thetitanlb]

It helps some. My confusion has always been around you not always straight betting the games with the highest ats probability.

[ny92mike]

It helps some. My confusion has always been around you not always straight betting the games with the highest ats probability.

Its because injuries aren't factored into the formula.

[ny92mike]

Screwed up on the teasers and parlays.

Put some bets down to try to build it up a bit.

4 team teaser OAKLAND +8½ INDIANAPOLIS +9½ N.Y. GIANTS +3½ NEW ENGLAND +8½

STRAIGHT BET INDIANAPOLIS +3½

STRAIGHT BET N.Y. GIANTS -2½

STRAIGHT BET NEW ENGLAND +2½

[ny92mike]

Well that didn't work out.

[ny92mike]

Week 12 Results
Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	14	7	7	50%
Over/ Under	14	4	10	29%
ATS	14	7	7	50%
ATS w/ Probability	4	3	1	75%
ATS w/ STD	2	1	1	50%
Score Probability	4	1	3	25%
Combo	11	5	6	45%
Year to Date Results
Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	156	91	65	58%
Over/ Under	156	84	72	54%
ATS	152	86	66	57%
ATS w/ Probability	65	35	30	54%
ATS w/ STD	38	23	15	61%
Score Probability	27	16	11	59%
Combo	50	28	22	56%

Well I should have taken my own advise and listened when I said that the system was showing the games to be too tight.

Going to take some time this week and look over the formula for any errors as well as any fine tuning I can do on the fly.

I'm noticing that the SCN which has a direct reflect on the potential score is favoring one team, yet the projected score is reflecting there opponent. These offsets at the very lest should be flagged as such and I haven't been doing that.

So there are a couple things that I should be able to clean up a bit before going into the final weeks of the season.

Anyway for what its worth know that I'm working on it.

Now I'm going to get drunk...ha

[befus]

When you change the parameters of a data based system DURING the season you learn nothing. Anyone can adjust a system to pick winners AFTER the games are played. If you want to see how the system does don't monkey with it or all the data is screwed and nothing is learned. Sometimes you have to say WTF and just let it go. If not, then you might as well flip a coin as far as valid results are concerned. No offense intended, just MHO.

[ny92mike]

Thanks befus.

Just to be clear, I won't be changing the formulas themselves, just looking for other factors. Like the one I mentioned about the SCN being on the wrong side of the winning team. In last weeks games there were 5 cases of this. Of those 5, four proved to be losses, or games I should of given a second look. Had I stayed away from those games I would have went 67% ats. Another factor that I found was related to how I group teams and if vegas is looking at those top teams as favorites or underdogs. That factor was 71% ats.

I appreciate and value what you said about not changing the system as that is something I'm in complete agreement with you on. All I've done here is attempt to point out different factors within the current system to get a better win ats percentage.

Thanks man.

[ny92mike]

I’ve changed some terminology when I included a couple more factors that I’ve started taking notice of. So I’ll explain that before posting the projections for this coming week.
The ATS Probability and STD were basically one in the same. So I did away with the old STD column. If by chance you were using it just use the ATS probability of the two highest percentages and it will be the same thing as the STD. The combo is now called Var. w/Group.
I’ll try to explain the different columns.
ATS Probability _ Standard deviation of the projected away score - (projected home score + Vegas Spread) by the Vegas Spread for each team. I then use a percentile formula to determine the highest percentage within all the teams. Typically anything higher than 70% is a higher bet.
STD _ Is the standard deviation of the Vegas Spread and my projected spread. It’s a bit different from the ATS probability.
High Group = Fav _ It will be correct if the team grouping is parallel to the side. For example Group 1 (Favorite) is playing Group 3 (Underdog). If it is opposite it will be noted as incorrect. If both teams are grouped the same then the value is Null.
Var. w/forecast _ If the system is projecting a similar score to the forecast it will have a low number.
SCN = Proj. Score _ This is what I talked about earlier in that sometimes the SCN number and the projected score are not parallel to each other. If the system is noted with correct then it is parallel if incorrect it is not parallel.
Score Prob. % _ Is how accurate the system has been with each team. If both the home and away team have >=50% score accuracy then it will be noted with Over 50% if not it will read na.
Var. w/Group _ The system has shown in previous work that the SCN and the Group projected score follow each other close. When the numbers vary too much it is usually a loss ATS. So in this case, not to low, not too high. Want to stay as close to 0 as possible.
Hopefully, I haven’t confused too awful much but if you have questions please ask.
Thanks.

[ny92mike]

Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Projected V. Spread	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	High Group = Fav.	Var. w/ forecast	SCN = Proj. Score	Score Prob. %	Var. w/Group
Week_13 | GreenBayPackers @ DetroitLions	5.5	49.5	-1.7	GreenBayPackers	100%	3.60	Incorrect	0.01	Correct	na	-2.13
Week_13 | OaklandRaiders @ DallasCowboys	9.5	46.5	12.4	DallasCowboys	67%	1.45	Correct	0.19	Correct	Over 50%	14.09
Week_13 | PittsburghSteelers @ BaltimoreRavens	3	40.5	3.8	BaltimoreRavens	7%	0.40	Null	0.60	Correct	Over 50%	1.05
Week_13 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ CarolinaPanthers	5	41.5	1	TampaBayBuccaneers	80%	2.00	Correct	18.19	Correct	na	13.59
Week_13 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ ClevelandBrowns	7	40.5	11	ClevelandBrowns	33%	2.00	Null	1.11	Correct	Over 50%	1.27
Week_13 | TennesseeTitans @ IndianapolisColts	4	44.5	0.5	TennesseeTitans	73%	1.75	Null	0.76	Incorrect	na	0.34
Week_13 | DenverBroncos @ KansasCityChiefs	-4	48.5	-2.3	KansasCityChiefs	60%	0.85	Correct	1.50	Correct	na	-3.89
Week_13 | ChicagoBears @ MinnesotaVikings	1	49	-2.4	ChicagoBears	53%	1.70	Incorrect	1.41	Correct	na	-7.72
Week_13 | MiamiDolphins @ NewYorkJets	1.5	38.5	0.8	MiamiDolphins	13%	0.35	Incorrect	1.38	Incorrect	na	-5.02
Week_13 | ArizonaCardinals @ PhiladelphiaEagles	3	48.5	7.8	PhiladelphiaEagles	0%	2.40	Correct	2.53	Correct	na	6.71
Week_13 | AtlantaFalcons @ BuffaloBills	3	46	8.3	BuffaloBills	20%	2.65	Correct	2.68	Correct	Over 50%	3.18
Week_13 | StLouisRams @ SanFrancisco49ers	9.5	41.5	8.2	St.LouisRams	93%	0.65	Null	2.33	Correct	na	-0.42
Week_13 | NewEnglandPatriots @ HoustonTexans	-7.5	47	-11.7	NewEnglandPatriots	40%	2.10	Correct	0.30	Correct	na	-22.55
Week_13 | CincinnatiBengals @ SanDiegoChargers	2.5	49	2	CincinnatiBengals	27%	0.25	Incorrect	0.81	Incorrect	na	-3.90
Week_13 | NewYorkGiants @ WashingtonRedskins	-1	45.5	8.3	WashingtonRedskins	87%	4.65	Incorrect	2.35	Correct	na	6.98
Week_13 | NewOrleansSaints @ SeattleSeahawks	5.5	47	7.1	SeattleSeahawks	47%	0.80	Null	1.56	Correct	na	-0.07

[ny92mike]

Going to try something a bit different with my personal betting strategy by looking over all the various factors, I’ve created a small formula that will determine what “Risk %” of my pocket to bet on each game.

The one parlay I bet on was more of me looking over the teams and making a judgment call. Also did a 5 team teaser taking the teams with heavy points on teams that the system projected to win.

Bets	Risk %
STRAIGHT BET
DALLAS -9½	29.8%
GREEN BAY +6	7.6%
BALTIMORE -3	5.5%
TENNESSEE +4	4.6%
KANSAS CITY +4½	3.1%
CLEVELAND -7	4.6%
TAMPA BAY +8	4.8%
CHICAGO +1	1.6%
PHILADELPHIA -3	4.8%
BUFFALO -3	6.4%
ST. LOUIS +8½	4.6%
NEW ENGLAND -7½	4.6%
SEATTLE -5½	3.1%
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)	11.9%
PHILADELPHIA -3
BUFFALO -3
NEW ENGLAND -7½
5 team teaser	3.0%
GREEN BAY +12
TENNESSEE +10
KANSAS CITY +10½
TAMPA BAY +14
ST. LOUIS +14½

Good Luck everyone and have a great holiday.

Gobble. Gobble.

[steel26]

Ok. I read and reread the explanation of how you system works now. I need more clarification. Especially how you made your pics?

[ny92mike]

Ok. I read and reread the explanation of how you system works now. I need more clarification. Especially how you made your pics?

I think much of the confusion is coming from my projections differing from my picks. Some of this is because I try to account for injuries as the system does not. Second, I am trying to account for regression or progression from the previous weeks leading up to this week; again this is not calculated in the formula. Thirdly, I’m a rookie bettor and I’m still trying to learn how to bet properly. The system if used correctly can make for a useful tool but I myself am still learning how to use it, correctly. I’m still finding correlations within the system that point to it working better if I account for things such as the Stat Comparison Number (SCN) being parallel to the projected score. Take this week for example there are three games that it isn’t parallel to the SCN; Tennessee vs Indy; Miami vs Jets; and Bengals vs Chargers. In fact the last two mentioned are outside every single parameter so I stayed clear of both of those games. The system is projecting the Dolphins and the Bengals to win their games but the system is also doing so simply based on the SCN yet every other flag (factor) I’ve set up is telling me different.
Now what I’ve been posting is exactly what the system is saying, its picking the team based on the correlation formulas but I’ve tried to build some sort of back testing that will flag when things aren’t aligned as I would like to see. Those flags are the ats probability, std, etc.
What I did this week is basically, what I’ve been doing in the previous weeks I’m just trying to put up more flags in hopes to refine the system without actually rebuilding it from the ground up. There are the obvious factors that I’ve got to include in the system such as game changing injuries like Rogers in Green Bay. Its showing to be the largest play this week….what I would call a lock if I had locks, but it can’t be right because the way the system works it does not account for injuries and its based on cumulative stats over the course of the season. So the system is still weighing heavy based on the stats when Rogers was at quarterback. So I shifted the “lock” to the Dallas game as it was the second highest when I accounted for all the flags. It wasn’t the highest in every category but it looked good across the board. However, this method of weighing the flags is not without its need of being refined. Time is my enemy at the moment. I just don't have the time to totally rebuild it to account for all these variables so I’m forced to leave it as is this season and just try to produce as many flags within the systems current build to improve the winning percentages against the spread.
I’ve included the risk % to my bets this week to see if it will yield a better win percentage, in that I’m betting more on the games with the most positive flags and less on those with fewer positive flags.
Also on a side note, I just realized that I did not include the straight up portion within my week 12 post. I’ll try to have that corrected at some point tomorrow, if by chance I forget, please drop me a reminder.

Hope that helped a little if you need more information you can chat me up in private messaging as well.

Thanks for taking interest in my system.

[steel26]

It does. Just keep doing what you are doing.. I am a novice at this too although I have been at it a while but I need stop parleying and go with some straight bets. Lets work this week and see how it goes..

[steel26]

Also, am I to understand that the games with the lowest % (away from 0) are the ones to look at. You also didn't put your over/unders out.

[ny92mike]

Alright here is the list with the updated straight up and over/under projections.

You want to look at values closest to 0 in both the var. w/ forecast and var. w/group all the others you are looking for the largest values.

Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Projected V. Spread	Proj. O/U	Straight Up	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	High Group = Fav.	Var. w/ forecast	SCN = Proj. Score	Score Prob. %	Var. w/Group
Week_13 | GreenBayPackers @ DetroitLions	5.5	49.5	-1.7	Under	GreenBayPackers	GreenBayPackers	100%	3.60	Incorrect	0.01	Correct	na	-2.13
Week_13 | OaklandRaiders @ DallasCowboys	9.5	46.5	12.4	Under	DallasCowboys	DallasCowboys	67%	1.45	Correct	0.19	Correct	Over 50%	14.09
Week_13 | PittsburghSteelers @ BaltimoreRavens	3	40.5	3.8	Over	BaltimoreRavens	BaltimoreRavens	7%	0.40	Null	0.60	Correct	Over 50%	1.05
Week_13 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ CarolinaPanthers	5	41.5	1	Over	CarolinaPanthers	TampaBayBuccaneers	80%	2.00	Correct	18.19	Correct	na	13.59
Week_13 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ ClevelandBrowns	7	40.5	11	Over	ClevelandBrowns	ClevelandBrowns	33%	2.00	Null	1.11	Correct	Over 50%	1.27
Week_13 | TennesseeTitans @ IndianapolisColts	4	44.5	0.5	Under	IndianapolisColts	TennesseeTitans	73%	1.75	Null	0.76	Incorrect	na	0.34
Week_13 | DenverBroncos @ KansasCityChiefs	-4	48.5	-2.3	Under	DenverBroncos	KansasCityChiefs	60%	0.85	Correct	1.50	Correct	na	-3.89
Week_13 | ChicagoBears @ MinnesotaVikings	1	49	-2.4	Under	ChicagoBears	ChicagoBears	53%	1.70	Incorrect	1.41	Correct	na	-7.72
Week_13 | MiamiDolphins @ NewYorkJets	1.5	38.5	0.8	Over	NewYorkJets	MiamiDolphins	13%	0.35	Incorrect	1.38	Incorrect	na	-5.02
Week_13 | ArizonaCardinals @ PhiladelphiaEagles	3	48.5	7.8	Under	PhiladelphiaEagles	PhiladelphiaEagles	0%	2.40	Correct	2.53	Correct	na	6.71
Week_13 | AtlantaFalcons @ BuffaloBills	3	46	8.3	Under	BuffaloBills	BuffaloBills	20%	2.65	Correct	2.68	Correct	Over 50%	3.18
Week_13 | StLouisRams @ SanFrancisco49ers	9.5	41.5	8.2	Over	SanFrancisco49ers	St.LouisRams	93%	0.65	Null	2.33	Correct	na	-0.42
Week_13 | NewEnglandPatriots @ HoustonTexans	-7.5	47	-11.7	Under	NewEnglandPatriots	NewEnglandPatriots	40%	2.10	Correct	0.30	Correct	na	-22.55
Week_13 | CincinnatiBengals @ SanDiegoChargers	2.5	49	2	Under	SanDiegoChargers	CincinnatiBengals	27%	0.25	Incorrect	0.81	Incorrect	na	-3.90
Week_13 | NewYorkGiants @ WashingtonRedskins	-1	45.5	8.3	Under	WashingtonRedskins	WashingtonRedskins	87%	4.65	Incorrect	2.35	Correct	na	6.98
Week_13 | NewOrleansSaints @ SeattleSeahawks	5.5	47	7.1	Under	SeattleSeahawks	SeattleSeahawks	47%	0.80	Null	1.56	Correct	na	-0.07

[ny92mike]

Rogers not playing is killing my system projections.