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I do not fully understand your formula but at first glance what I like is the amount of thought you have put in it. No matter how this goes for you I like the fact that you have put it out there. I have done the same with something I call the Pendulum Cycle Theory. It is based more on crowd psychology then stats. Would be interested in talking with you to see if the two ideas could somehow be merged.Comment -
Thats probably my fault, I'm horrible at explaining things...curse ADD. Yeah I couldn't tell you the countless hours I've got invested in this project, and every year I find some little something to add to it.
I did read up on your Pendulum Cycle Theory, didn't fully understand it but I got the basics, would love to talk shop, I'll send you a message. Actually glad my project is getting a little attention, as you well know a lot of work goes into these databases.Comment -
Week 6 Results and YTD Record
Week 6 Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 15 7 8 47% Over/ Under 15 6 9 40% ATS 13 9 4 69% ATS w/ Probability 5 4 1 80% ATS w/ STD 2 2 0 100% Year to Date Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 73 41 32 56% Over/ Under 73 40 33 55% ATS 71 38 33 54% ATS w/ Probability 34 17 17 50% ATS w/ STD 26 15 11 58%
Haven't had a chance yet to go back and look at the previous weeks to account for pushes, perhaps I'll have some free time over the weekend.
As mentioned in the previous post week 6 was quiet successful against the spread. As for the year to date results. The system is staying just slightly above .500 in every category.
I'll be posting week 7 shortly, but these two following weeks scare me with this system. Every back test I've done without fail shows a trend that in one week between week 7 and 9 the system is on the wrong side of the betting line for just about every game. Some of the post I've read in the forum suggest that this shit happened last week, but I still want to suggest caution this week if you should be using this system as an aid.
GLComment -
Some things that stood out to me in this weeks games.WEEK_07 Forecast Projections >=70% >=4.4 Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread ATS Probability STD Straight Up Over /Under Proj. Week_07 | SeattleSeahawks @ ArizonaCardinals -6.0 40.5 SeattleSeahawks 64% 3.5 SeattleSeahawks Over Week_07 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ AtlantaFalcons 7.0 43.0 AtlantaFalcons 14% 0.7 AtlantaFalcons Over Week_07 | StLouisRams @ CarolinaPanthers 6.5 42.0 CarolinaPanthers 29% 1.3 CarolinaPanthers Over Week_07 | CincinnatiBengals @ DetroitLions 2.5 47.0 DetroitLions 79% 3.8 DetroitLions Under Week_07 | SanDiegoChargers @ JacksonvilleJaguars -7.0 45.0 SanDiegoChargers 100% 8.8 SanDiegoChargers Under Week_07 | HoustonTexans @ KansasCityChiefs 6.0 39.5 KansasCityChiefs 57% 3.3 KansasCityChiefs Over Week_07 | BuffaloBills @ MiamiDolphins 7.0 43.0 BuffaloBills 43% 2.8 MiamiDolphins Over Week_07 | NewEnglandPatriots @ NewYorkJets -4.0 43.0 NewEnglandPatriots 7% 0.5 NewEnglandPatriots Over Week_07 | DallasCowboys @ PhiladelphiaEagles 3.0 54.5 PhiladelphiaEagles 0% 0.2 PhiladelphiaEagles Under Week_07 | ChicagoBears @ WashingtonRedskins 1.0 50.0 ChicagoBears 71% 3.7 ChicagoBears Under Week_07 | SanFrancisco49ers @ TennesseeTitans -4.0 40.0 TennesseeTitans 50% 2.9 TennesseeTitans Over Week_07 | ClevelandBrowns @ GreenBayPackers 9.5 46.0 GreenBayPackers 36% 1.8 GreenBayPackers Under Week_07 | BaltimoreRavens @ PittsburghSteelers 2.5 41.0 BaltimoreRavens 86% 4.3 BaltimoreRavens Over Week_07 | DenverBroncos @ IndianapolisColts -6.0 55.5 IndianapolisColts 21% 0.8 DenverBroncos Under Week_07 | MinnesotaVikings @ NewYorkGiants 3.5 46.5 MinnesotaVikings 93% 4.4 MinnesotaVikings Under WEEK_07 Grouped Score Projections >=70% >=2.0 Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread ATS Probability STD Straight Up Over /Under Proj. Week_07 | SeattleSeahawks @ ArizonaCardinals -6.0 40.5 ArizonaCardinals 50% 3.2 SeattleSeahawks Over Week_07 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ AtlantaFalcons 7.0 43.0 AtlantaFalcons 7% 1.0 AtlantaFalcons Under Week_07 | StLouisRams @ CarolinaPanthers 6.5 42.0 CarolinaPanthers 29% 1.8 CarolinaPanthers Under Week_07 | CincinnatiBengals @ DetroitLions 2.5 47.0 DetroitLions 21% 1.6 DetroitLions Over Week_07 | SanDiegoChargers @ JacksonvilleJaguars -7.0 45.0 SanDiegoChargers 0% 0.9 SanDiegoChargers Under Week_07 | HoustonTexans @ KansasCityChiefs 6.0 39.5 KansasCityChiefs 36% 1.9 KansasCityChiefs Over Week_07 | BuffaloBills @ MiamiDolphins 7.0 43.0 BuffaloBills 93% 7.5 BuffaloBills Under Week_07 | NewEnglandPatriots @ NewYorkJets -4.0 43.0 NewEnglandPatriots 14% 1.2 NewEnglandPatriots Under Week_07 | DallasCowboys @ PhiladelphiaEagles 3.0 54.5 DallasCowboys 43% 2.7 PhiladelphiaEagles Under Week_07 | ChicagoBears @ WashingtonRedskins 1.0 50.0 ChicagoBears 79% 6.2 ChicagoBears Under Week_07 | SanFrancisco49ers @ TennesseeTitans -4.0 40.0 TennesseeTitans 64% 4.2 TennesseeTitans Over Week_07 | ClevelandBrowns @ GreenBayPackers 9.5 46.0 GreenBayPackers 71% 4.4 GreenBayPackers Under Week_07 | BaltimoreRavens @ PittsburghSteelers 2.5 41.0 BaltimoreRavens 86% 6.4 BaltimoreRavens Under Week_07 | DenverBroncos @ IndianapolisColts -6.0 55.5 IndianapolisColts 57% 3.9 DenverBroncos Under Week_07 | MinnesotaVikings @ NewYorkGiants 3.5 46.5 MinnesotaVikings 100% 7.8 MinnesotaVikings Under
Seattle Cards game: Seattle is a group 1 team the SCN for this game is large (-27.985) and leaning on Seattle. Projected score of 29.9 - 16.9. Also note that Arizona has got a 72.7% accuracy score, meaning that the formula is projecting their score fairly accurate each week. I haven't looked into injuries and the likes but this is a game I would consider betting heavy.
Bengals and Detroit: Relatively good SCN (-15.300) on Detroit, however neither team seems to be hitting its mark when considering previous weeks projected scores of 18.1 to 28.2. Detroit should cover the 2.5 point spread with ease according to the system.
Houston vs KC: SCN stands at -18.901 for KC with a projected score of 16.6 - 29.3 The system has be very accurate with KC scores at 87.8% while it has been not so great with Houston.
SD vs Jacksonville: arpeggiomeister mentioned this game in one of his threads pertaining the his pendulum theory. This game has a -7 spread yet the system has this game as the lock of the week basically. -42.460 SCN and a projected score where both teams have scored very comparable to that of the system. 81.8% SD and 69.6% JAC. Projected scores are 30.3 - 5.8.
NYG vs MIN: Neither team is performing well, while the system is in favor of the Vikings this is a game to stay away from. Neither team are even getting close to the projected scores throughout the previous weeks.
GLComment -
Mike, been lurking and following, impressive system for sure. One question, what is the difference between the Forecast Projection and the Grouped Projection, and which one is the right one to tail for actual picks?
Looking forward to seeing the system get into the second half of the season, keep it up.
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Mike, been lurking and following, impressive system for sure. One question, what is the difference between the Forecast Projection and the Grouped Projection, and which one is the right one to tail for actual picks?
Looking forward to seeing the system get into the second half of the season, keep it up.
Mako, Thanks for posting. Lets me know my work is getting some attention.
The forecast projection is based off the SCN number, which is basically a calculated number from comparing the match up. From there, the SCN is compared to previous years to locate a projected score. This is the one to follow the group is based on prior years work, not really sure why I'm even posting it really as the grouped score is more for me to see if I can make adjustments to it down the road.
The Grouped projection is slightly different in that teams are ranked according to the overall team score. For example, the below list is the ranking of each team based on a correlation formula.
Based on this ranking there is a 82.7% correlation to this rank and the total number of wins as well as a 83.2% correlation to total points scored.Total Pts Win Loss Tie TEAMNAME MyGrade Rank 265 6 0 0 DenverBroncos 2.00 1 157 5 1 0 SeattleSeahawks 1.97 2 161 5 1 0 NewOrleansSaints 1.94 3 152 6 0 0 KansasCityChiefs 1.90 4 183 3 3 0 DallasCowboys 1.87 5 166 3 3 0 PhiladelphiaEagles 1.84 6 162 4 2 0 DetroitLions 1.81 7 137 3 2 0 GreenBayPackers 1.77 8 172 4 2 0 ChicagoBears 1.74 9 125 5 1 0 NewEnglandPatriots 1.71 10 148 4 2 0 IndianapolisColts 1.68 11 144 3 3 0 SanDiegoChargers 1.65 12 134 3 3 0 BaltimoreRavens 1.61 13 121 4 2 0 CincinnatiBengals 1.58 14 145 4 2 0 SanFrancisco49ers 1.55 15 109 2 3 0 CarolinaPanthers 1.52 16 136 2 4 0 BuffaloBills 1.48 17 128 3 3 0 TennesseeTitans 1.45 18 125 1 5 0 MinnesotaVikings 1.42 19 122 1 5 0 AtlantaFalcons 1.39 20 111 3 3 0 ArizonaCardinals 1.35 21 141 3 3 0 St.LouisRams 1.32 22 114 3 2 0 MiamiDolphins 1.29 23 118 3 3 0 ClevelandBrowns 1.26 24 105 2 4 0 OaklandRaiders 1.23 25 104 3 3 0 NewYorkJets 1.19 26 107 1 5 0 WashingtonRedskins 1.16 27 106 2 4 0 HoustonTexans 1.13 28 88 1 5 0 PittsburghSteelers 1.10 29 64 0 6 0 TampaBayBuccaneers 1.06 30 103 0 6 0 NewYorkGiants 1.03 31 70 0 6 0 JacksonvilleJaguars 1.00 32
Based on the teams ranking (1 - 32) they are grouped in 4's (Group 1 containing teams ranked 1 thru 4 and so on). Once that is established, then I end up with a method of seeing what the average score is when a team in grouping 1 does when facing a team within another grouping.Comment -
This clock can't burn fast enoughComment -
That last TD by zona was a bit frustrating in terms of my projected score but the actual -12 and projection -13 difference was really tight so I'm happy about that.Comment -
It really worked out well, I had a second leg teaser on AZ to cover at +13.5, meanwhile the line dipped 10 minutes before the close to -5.5 Seattle, so I hopped on Seattle to win as well via a straight bet.
In order for both bets to win Seattle had to win by at least 6 points, but by no more than 13, so I was happy to see that late TD for sure which put the game perfectly in range for both bets to win.
Keep the data coming Mike, your projections are very impressive man.Comment -
Parlay thoughts
NEW ENGLAND -3
SAN DIEGO -7
DETROIT -2½
CHICAGO PK-110
BALTIMORE +3
System is leaning good on all these games. Anyone see a train wreck with these picks?Comment -
I bet 4 of those 5 already earlier this week, so the system definitely has my support. Only one that concerns me is San Diego believe it or not, the whole west-coast-team-going-east thing, especially after a big emo win against Indy on MNF.
Looks good though, like it.Comment -
Interesting thread. Consider me subscribed
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Awesome system!
New to site and the word correlation caught my eye beings I am an engineer. Is this the 1st year for the system? Why did you not use 2012 data?Comment -
For this year I'm using data from 09 to 12, in my first post I just listed 09 data to illustrate. This is the first year for me to post my picks using the SCN data, I did post some stuff in the past that pertained to a team grouping method which was similar to this data in that it used correlated stats from week to week to pick the winner.
I decided to start posting again this year as it aids me during the season to find discrepancies within the system in hopes of making it a more successful system.
Thanks for taking notice.Comment -
I'm going to wait until Monday nights game is over before posting totals, just wanted to jump in and talk about the game and how the system did with its picks.
For weeks now I have leaned on the ATS probability to pick a high percentage winner. It turns out perhaps that isn't the best method. What I mean is the way that the probability is formulated by taking the vegas spread and that of the projected spread, taking the difference of those two and the higher the difference the higher the probability. Well if I had been using my brain, that method would show differences on both sides of the field. There has been however, a different method that I've been adding in since week 2 and that how accurate the system has been with each team. Last weeks results where 4 games marked above 50% for a score closer to that of the actual score. It picked 4 games w/ 2 wins, 1 loss and a push. This week, it selected four games again with 3 wins 1 loss. I'll post this for next week and see how it does.
Was happy to see the two games with the largest margin of SCN won with relatively close scores to the projected.
Wasn't happy to see several teams within reach of the spread late in the game not make it.
I keep talking about the SCN so I'll be posting that number as well next to the picks from here on out.
I did win some this week, loading heavy on the seattle and chargers games, missed the parley but pulled in a 6 team teaser along with a couple single bets.Comment -
Anyone good at math? Found something in my data that looks to be beneficial to the system just not sure how to work it.
If any math gurus could send me a pm ill explain the data.
Thanks.Comment -
NJ on the 6-teamer Mike, with an average of an 80% win probability per leg it's tough as hell to put together six legs that win.
On last week's results, can you post which games went 3-1 within the system? I ask because looking at the Forecast I can't see that specific result...want to make sure I'm reading it correctly.
For your math help, you may want to try posting within this forum, have had good results there previously: http://mathhelpforum.com/Comment -
My six team teaser wasNJ on the 6-teamer Mike, with an average of an 80% win probability per leg it's tough as hell to put together six legs that win.
On last week's results, can you post which games went 3-1 within the system? I ask because looking at the Forecast I can't see that specific result...want to make sure I'm reading it correctly.
For your math help, you may want to try posting within this forum, have had good results there previously: http://mathhelpforum.com/
6 team teaser
NEW ENGLAND +3
SAN DIEGO -1
DETROIT +4
BUFFALO +13
DALLAS +8½
BALTIMORE +9
NE was a push.
The games that went 3-1 aren't posted but here they are for the last two weeks. I'm going to start posting this information weekly as it seems to be the better indicator of a win or loss ats. .
Week 7
Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread Against the Spread Week_07 | SeattleSeahawks @ ArizonaCardinals -6.0 40.5 SeattleSeahawks Win Week_07 | SanDiegoChargers @ JacksonvilleJaguars -7.0 45.0 SanDiegoChargers Win Week_07 | HoustonTexans @ KansasCityChiefs 6.0 39.5 KansasCityChiefs Loss Week_07 | BuffaloBills @ MiamiDolphins 7.0 43.0 BuffaloBills Win
Week 6
Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread Against the Spread Week_06 | OaklandRaiders @ KansasCityChiefs 8.5 40.5 OaklandRaiders Loss Week_06 | GreenBayPackers @ BaltimoreRavens -2.0 48.0 BaltimoreRavens Push Week_06 | TennesseeTitans @ SeattleSeahawks 13.5 40.5 TennesseeTitans Win Week_06 | IndianapolisColts @ SanDiegoChargers -1.5 50.5 SanDiegoChargers Win
If you need more info let me know.
The whole math question has come up because based on my formulas it is suggesting that I create a strength of schedule or something to the likes. Let me try to explain this and perhaps you might have some thoughts on the matter.
Lets take week 5 for example, which is looking at stats from week 4 to week 1 to determine the SCN (strength comparison number). The results for that week are as follows.
Straight Up Sides Against The Spread ATS Probability STD Over / Under Loss BuffaloBills Loss 100% 9.63 Win Win NewOrleansSaints Win 31% 2.61 Win Loss NewEnglandPatriots Loss 85% 8.02 Win Win IndianapolisColts Win 62% 6.70 Loss Loss DetroitLions Loss 92% 9.17 Win Loss MiamiDolphins Loss 0% 0.77 Win Win PhiladelphiaEagles Win 77% 7.10 Loss Win TennesseeTitans Loss 23% 1.91 Win Win JacksonvilleJaguars Loss 69% 6.79 Win Loss ArizonaCardinals Win 8% 0.84 Loss Win DallasCowboys Win 54% 5.64 Loss Loss SanDiegoChargers Loss 15% 1.29 Win Win HoustonTexans Loss 46% 5.37 Loss Loss AtlantaFalcons Loss 38% 4.60 Loss Straight Up Against The Spread ATS Probability STD Over / Under 14 14 4 2 14 7 5 1 0 8 50% 36% 25% 0% 57%
Not my best week, actually its the worst week of the season.
Now what I do is run the same system but using stats from week 5 to week 1 the system is much more accurate as seen below.
Mind you, the system isn't using a single score from this season just stats. This process where before and after is much more accurate than the other is leading me to believe that finding a strength of schedule based on the differences of SCN from the before to after, I could adjust the SCN by going up or down a few points based on this SOS.Straight Up Sides Against The Spread ATS Probability STD Over / Under Loss BuffaloBills Loss 77% 6.50 Win Win NewOrleansSaints Win 31% 5.01 Win Loss NewEnglandPatriots Loss 46% 5.34 Win Win IndianapolisColts Win 62% 5.39 Loss Win DetroitLions Loss 69% 6.11 Win Loss BaltimoreRavens Win 15% 2.57 Win Win PhiladelphiaEagles Win 92% 7.22 Loss Win TennesseeTitans Loss 0% 1.95 Win Win JacksonvilleJaguars Loss 85% 6.62 Win Win ArizonaCardinals Win 54% 5.35 Win Loss DallasCowboys Win 100% 7.25 Loss Win OaklandRaiders Win 23% 4.75 Win Win SanFrancisco49ers Win 8% 1.97 Loss Loss NewYorkJets Win 38% 5.27 Win Straight Up Against The Spread ATS Probability STD Over / Under 14 14 4 2 14 9 9 2 2 10 64% 64% 50% 100% 71%
If I can work this out its going from an average of 50+ percent ATS to roughly mid 70's ATS.
Thanks for the link, I'll get my question out there.Comment -
Week 7 Results
Week 7 Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 15 6 9 40% Over/ Under 15 10 5 67% ATS 15 7 8 47% ATS w/ Probability 5 1 4 20% ATS w/ STD 2 1 1 50% Score Probability 4 3 1 75% Year to Date Results Games Games Played Wins Loss Win % Straight Up 88 47 41 53% Over/ Under 88 50 38 57% ATS 86 45 41 52% ATS w/ Probability 39 18 21 46% ATS w/ STD 28 16 12 57% Score Probability 10 7 3 70%
You'll notice that I've added a "Score Probability" to the list of data. This score probability is something I couldn't really use earlier in the season as its based off the scores and how close the system has accurately projected those scores. Certain teams are scoring very close to the projected scores and it looks to be paying off.
Still working on the strength of schedule stuff I talked about earlier, getting good results from this new data but still feel that I can get much closer but as of right now I'm seeing the below percentage increases over the course of the season.
Against the Spread 13% ATS Probability 27% STD 10% Straight Up 13% Over /Under Proj. -4%
Will try to have next weeks posted in the next couple of days, basically just as soon as nfl.com gets the stats up.
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btw
My Giants finally won a game....haha
Ugly but I'll take it. Perhaps they can build upon it.Comment -
Week 8 Forecast
Alright I’m hoping that the hit I took last week in terms of the system not pulling many winners against the spread was the swing I mentioned earlier, where the picks just fell on the wrong side. Lions missing it by 1 point; Chiefs failing short at the one yard line having to settle for a field goal win; Patriot mishaps; the shot out with Chi and Was; Baltimore missed by half point for push (belief the spread moved to 3 right before start of game); and I never bet the Giants.
Anyway enough about the losses let’s talk winners.
Mako asked that I include some other information in my picks. So I’ve included 3 new columns the first is the “Score Probability”, this has been really accurate picking the winners as of late. What it does is look at previous weeks and weighs how close the projected score was to the actual score over the past 3 weeks it is 70% accurately picking the winners.
The second column is the ATS side SCN, the higher the negative number the better the mismatch. For example this week; the biggest mismatch is SF vs Jacksonville, SCN for this game is -44.4. The last column is something I’ve started seeing a decent trend. It isn’t as heavy as the Score Probability but nonetheless it is showing positive results. I’m calling it “Combo” because its looking at if both the Forecast and Group are picking the same team to beat the spread, last week the “Combo” went 7 of 13 and the week before that 8 of 13.
Still working on a strength of schedule offset which looks as though it could take some time to work out, but I’ll continue with this throughout the week or weeks. However, long it takes.
Injuries are still a bother so I’m excluding the Seattle @ St. Louis game from my bets but will leave within the system for research next season.
Another game to stay completely away from is the Giants @ Philly, although it was a horrid game by the Giants it was a win and being a fan, I know that it only takes one win to get this team back on track.
This week, I’m posting my bets below the projections should anyone be interested in viewing.
As always feedback is encouraged, hate thinking that I’m posting and taking this time to not get feedback, good or bad.
Weekly Schedule Visitor Spread Over / Under Against the Spread ATS Probability STD Straight Up Over /Under Proj. Score Probability SCN Combo Week_08 | CarolinaPanthers @ TampaBayBuccaneers -5.5 39.5 CarolinaPanthers 17% 1.6 CarolinaPanthers Over
-29.3 Bet Week_08 | DallasCowboys @ DetroitLions 3.0 51.0 DallasCowboys 25% 2.8 DetroitLions Under
-4.4 Bet Week_08 | SanFrancisco49ers @ JacksonvilleJaguars -16.5 40.5 SanFrancisco49ers 58% 5.0 SanFrancisco49ers Over
-44.4 Bet Week_08 | ClevelandBrowns @ KansasCityChiefs 7.0 39.5 KansasCityChiefs 67% 5.3 KansasCityChiefs Over
36.9
Week_08 | BuffaloBills @ NewOrleansSaints 12.0 50.0 BuffaloBills 75% 6.1 NewOrleansSaints Under Bet 15.1 Bet Week_08 | MiamiDolphins @ NewEnglandPatriots 7.0 45.5 MiamiDolphins 33% 3.6 NewEnglandPatriots Under
6.6
Week_08 | NewYorkGiants @ PhiladelphiaEagles 6.0 52.5 PhiladelphiaEagles 0% 0.6 PhiladelphiaEagles Under
17.4 Bet Week_08 | NewYorkJets @ CincinnatiBengals 6.5 41.0 NewYorkJets 42% 3.7 CincinnatiBengals Over
4.4
Week_08 | PittsburghSteelers @ OaklandRaiders -3.0 40.5 OaklandRaiders 50% 4.7 OaklandRaiders Over Bet 0.6 Bet Week_08 | AtlantaFalcons @ ArizonaCardinals 2.5 45.0 AtlantaFalcons 8% 1.4 ArizonaCardinals Under Bet -1.3 Bet Week_08 | WashingtonRedskins @ DenverBroncos 13.0 57.5 WashingtonRedskins 83% 6.6 DenverBroncos Under
16.8 Bet Week_08 | GreenBayPackers @ MinnesotaVikings -10.0 46.5 MinnesotaVikings 100% 7.8 GreenBayPackers Under
-12.9 Bet Week_08 | SeattleSeahawks @ StLouisRams -10.5 41.5 St.LouisRams 92% 6.7 SeattleSeahawks Over
-18.3
6 team teaser CAROLINA +½ SAN FRANCISCO -10½ DALLAS +9 KANSAS CITY -1 BUFFALO +18 NEW ENGLAND -1 4 team teaser OAKLAND +9 WASHINGTON +19 ATLANTA +8½ GREEN BAY -4 STRAIGHT BET CAROLINA -5½ ATLANTA +2½ BUFFALO +12 DALLAS +3 KANSAS CITY -7 OAKLAND +3 SAN FRANCISCO -16½ SEATTLE -10½ STRAIGHT BET TOTAL u51 (DALLAS vrs DETROIT) TOTAL u52½ (N.Y. GIANTS vrs PHILADELPHIA) TOTAL o39½ (CLEVELAND vrs KANSAS CITY) TOTAL u50 (BUFFALO vrs NEW ORLEANS) TOTAL o40½ (PITTSBURGH vrs OAKLAND) TOTAL u45 (ATLANTA vrs ARIZONA) TOTAL o41½ (SEATTLE vrs ST. LOUIS) Comment -
Nice Mike, keep it up. The more you work on it the better it will get.
If you manage to get it dialed in it can work for a long period of time, Robert Burns ("Jarhead" in the LVH supercontest) comes to mind as an example as he's been using essentially the same model he developed for ATS picks for ages and has multiple Top-10 finishes in 350+ person fields to show for it.
I still have having trouble figuring out your ATS picks from the chart, each time I lock in on your weekly highest-% numbers and say "ok, those are his picks" you then list your picks manually and they don't match the top percentage ATS figures.
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Nice Mike, keep it up. The more you work on it the better it will get.
If you manage to get it dialed in it can work for a long period of time, Robert Burns ("Jarhead" in the LVH supercontest) comes to mind as an example as he's been using essentially the same model he developed for ATS picks for ages and has multiple Top-10 finishes in 350+ person fields to show for it.
I still have having trouble figuring out your ATS picks from the chart, each time I lock in on your weekly highest-% numbers and say "ok, those are his picks" you then list your picks manually and they don't match the top percentage ATS figures.
Ok, I think I know what you’re talking about here and I’ll try to explain, but please let me know if you are still unsure. I want to make sure people using this method completely understand it.
All the back testing suggests the ATS probability percentages to be a reliable source of information to increase my win percentages. What I’m starting to see now from these figures is that unless the team is playing within the projected score probability it just really isn’t that accurate. What I’m weighing to account for this Ats prob. is based on the projected score spread and that of the Vegas spread. Problem is I’m getting high percentages on teams like Jacksonville / Denver / Giants. Teams that are doing far better or worse than the projected scores would suggest, the system is projecting scores favorable to how the team is doing but those numbers are drastically deflated to the actual score, so as of late I’m still looking at these teams but having to use some of the noodle to disregard teams that fit the above criteria. So with all that said, I’m in the hunt for other trends within the data, which at the moment (last 3 weeks) seems to be the score probability and what I call the combo, where both are showing positive trends the score probability is showing a 70% ATS win percentage while the other is in the high 50% range to mid-60% range.
I’m posting exactly what I’m seeing in the data this week rather than the condensed version I’m been posting here perhaps this will help.
In looking at my bets I think the only game I went against the system was Seattle vs Stl and the only reason I did that was because of the injury to Bradford.Team SCN Forecast Score Forecast Total Forecast Spread Standard D. P ATS Side Score Probability % Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | CarolinaPanthers @ TampaBayBuccaneers Fav Group 3 Visiting Team CarolinaPanthers -29.341 29.7 45.3 -8.6 1.6 CarolinaPanthers 18.1% W Over Week_08 | CarolinaPanthers @ TampaBayBuccaneers Dog Group 8 Home Team TampaBayBuccaneers 29.341 15.6 15.1% L Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | DallasCowboys @ DetroitLions Dog Group 2 Visiting Team DallasCowboys -4.363 21.9 44.3 -2.5 2.8 DallasCowboys 27.2% L Under Week_08 | DallasCowboys @ DetroitLions Fav Group 2 Home Team DetroitLions 4.363 22.4 48.4% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | SanFrancisco49ers @ JacksonvilleJaguars Fav Group 4 Visiting Team SanFrancisco49ers -44.446 34.4 45.9 -6.4 5.0 SanFrancisco49ers 24.2% W Over Week_08 | SanFrancisco49ers @ JacksonvilleJaguars Dog Group 8 Home Team JacksonvilleJaguars 44.446 11.5 69.6% L Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | ClevelandBrowns @ KansasCityChiefs Dog Group 7 Visiting Team ClevelandBrowns 36.889 9.1 42.8 17.5 5.3 KansasCityChiefs 42.4% L Over Week_08 | ClevelandBrowns @ KansasCityChiefs Fav Group 1 Home Team KansasCityChiefs -36.889 33.7 75.7% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | BuffaloBills @ NewOrleansSaints Dog Group 4 Visiting Team BuffaloBills 15.129 15.9 43.6 -0.2 6.1 BuffaloBills 93.9% L Under Week_08 | BuffaloBills @ NewOrleansSaints Fav Group 2 Home Team NewOrleansSaints -15.129 27.7 66.6% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | MiamiDolphins @ NewEnglandPatriots Dog Group 6 Visiting Team MiamiDolphins 6.640 18.5 43.9 -0.1 3.6 MiamiDolphins 96.9% L Under Week_08 | MiamiDolphins @ NewEnglandPatriots Fav Group 4 Home Team NewEnglandPatriots -6.640 25.4 45.4% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | NewYorkGiants @ PhiladelphiaEagles Dog Group 8 Visiting Team NewYorkGiants 17.428 15.2 43.5 7.2 0.6 PhiladelphiaEagles 30.3% L Under Week_08 | NewYorkGiants @ PhiladelphiaEagles Fav Group 3 Home Team PhiladelphiaEagles -17.428 28.4 33.3% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | NewYorkJets @ CincinnatiBengals Dog Group 6 Visiting Team NewYorkJets 4.399 19.2 44.0 -0.9 3.7 NewYorkJets 21.2% L Over Week_08 | NewYorkJets @ CincinnatiBengals Fav Group 5 Home Team CincinnatiBengals -4.399 24.8 6.0% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | PittsburghSteelers @ OaklandRaiders Fav Group 7 Visiting Team PittsburghSteelers 0.577 20.4 44.2 6.4 4.7 OaklandRaiders 63.6% L Over Week_08 | PittsburghSteelers @ OaklandRaiders Dog Group 7 Home Team OaklandRaiders -0.577 23.8 84.8% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | AtlantaFalcons @ ArizonaCardinals Dog Group 5 Visiting Team AtlantaFalcons -1.282 21.0 44.2 -0.2 1.4 AtlantaFalcons 51.5% L Under Week_08 | AtlantaFalcons @ ArizonaCardinals Fav Group 6 Home Team ArizonaCardinals 1.282 23.3 72.7% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | WashingtonRedskins @ DenverBroncos Dog Group 5 Visiting Team WashingtonRedskins 16.785 15.4 43.5 -0.2 6.6 WashingtonRedskins 9.0% L Under Week_08 | WashingtonRedskins @ DenverBroncos Fav Group 1 Home Team DenverBroncos -16.785 28.2 3.0% W Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | GreenBayPackers @ MinnesotaVikings Fav Group 1 Visiting Team GreenBayPackers -12.858 24.6 44.7 5.5 7.8 MinnesotaVikings 90.9% W Under Week_08 | GreenBayPackers @ MinnesotaVikings Dog Group 6 Home Team MinnesotaVikings 12.858 20.1 12.1% L Team SCN P. Score P. Total Standard D. P ATS Side Str. Up P. O/U Week_08 | SeattleSeahawks @ StLouisRams Fav Group 1 Visiting Team SeattleSeahawks -18.278 26.3 44.9 2.9 6.7 St.LouisRams 60.6% W Over Week_08 | SeattleSeahawks @ StLouisRams Dog Group 7 Home Team St.LouisRams 18.278 18.6 39.3% L
Hopefully I’ve answered your question but if not please let me know, I want you guys to be able to read this without any issues.
Thanks.Comment -
TNF
System did me well in tonights game projecting the score, lets hope that continues.
I bet on this game in a teaser, parlay, and a single bet, and was even trying to get a small parlay in for both the spread and Over but failed to get it in on time.
Taking wins from tonight and putting a parlay bet in to make a little more.
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
ATLANTA +2½-110
TOTAL u45½-110 (ATLANTA vrs ARIZONA)
GREEN BAY -8-110
TOTAL u47½-110 (GREEN BAY vrs MINNESOTA)
Thoughts?
GL...guys.Comment -
Just to let you know I've been following your thread and it's pretty amazing how accurately your system is projecting some of these games. Pretty awesome, keep up the good work.Comment -
Good job so far. I really liked the Buffalo pick before I saw this, and now I like it more.Comment -
Really sorry about the Buffalo game not going our way. Hoping you didn't take to big of a hit.Comment -
Managed to squeeze another 6 team teaser again this week along with some straight bets. Really upset with myself though for making a huge mistake with the formula. Missed a couple steps which killed my projections this week. It won't happen again as I've got a checklist to ensure I get all stats logged correctly. Would'da, could'da....been sittingshort of 80 percent accurate ats overall. Anyway...disgusted with that huge oversight.Comment -
Is there an updated projection for tonight's game?Comment
