apparently i suck wnba. missed first and 2nd half by a point. 5 bets this week i lost by 1pt or less. Bookies are raping me. Lack of patience!
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Spent last two hours or so going over last season with teasers. I was looking at biggest underdog of the day and taking over with that. I looked at lowest total of the day and taking over with the favorite. Turns out both ways hit just about 50% based on last season. Even if you chase there are stretches where you lose 7 out of 8 days or win or lose 4 straight. I think teasers can not be bet blindly even with a 3 or 4 game chase. (5 game losing streak was the most when taking biggest underdog of the day). Was trying to figure out some kind of system, but I must say, nothing can beat straight up capping in the NFL.
Only sport I see that is consistent just about every year is NBA. MLB and NFL are just super inconsistent whether you flat bet, labby, or use a martingale chase.
With that said, I hope I can learn a thing or two from you this season Dabank. My capping skills in terms of profit are limited to NBA only. There I know the defenses, offenses, players, etc.
Good Luck to us all in the coming NBA season and hopefully can add a little cushion in profit from NFL before NBA starts up. If you can please post all your plays and unit amounts. I am not going to be keeping track, just curious to strength of play so i can bet them a long with you.
PS
How much did you make last year in terms of units?Comment -
Went back and read the write ups again. The way I am betting I gotta learn to follow before I can lead. I put together a list of teams you mentioned or possibly doing a tease with. I'll continue to look up some stats based on preseason and week 1 and decide what I think. Week 1 I actually avoided TB as everyone in their mother was on them. Based on preseason I did not see it and thought Jets stood a very solid chance at winning that game. I thought the two teams looked crappy and worse team of all that I watched was the JAGS. I am really looking forward to fading jags most of the season either straight up ATS or with teasers. Maybe with different QB they are different team, but we shall see what week two has in store for us.
Anyways here is the list of plays you mentioned if you could give some insight later in the week which ones you are teasing, ML, or ATS would greatly appreciate that. I only have Thursdays game locked in with a 7pt tease at JETS +20 and o37. No other bets locked in yet at the moment. Debating which ones I want to bet between 2-3units on or just bet them all the same. With you feeling stronger about the TB game might lay 1unit on ML and 1unit ATS. Little stuff like that I gotta figure out. Looking forward to your next write ups or leans.
Good Luck (here are the list of plays you mentioned)
NE/NYJ Thursday 1st halfUnder
Bucs (ML)
BUCS (TEASER W/...)
CAR/BILLS UNDER
STL +7
STL/ATL OVER
SD/PHI OVER
GREENBAY ATS
PHI ATS (MAYBE TEASE)
MIA (TEASE)
CHI (ATS)
SF +7 OR MORE....
JAGS INITITAL LEAN..Comment -
I know you said you play every thursday game 1st half under, wonder if you could give more insight on that. I understand long run you will be up, but tomorrows game is it actually a lean when you look at the stats? Both jets and NE sunday went over in the first half. My initial lean is under as well with as many dropped balls NE has and with Jets not so hot offense week 1. I suppose I could chase it a little betting 1st and and chase it 2nd half.
Insight? Or still not going to bother capping Thursdays game?Comment -
Not speaking for bank, but from what i understand...the angle is that because of the short week and little time to prepare, teams come out flat in the first half.
if i remember correctly it was hitting so well last year, books started raising the 1H total every thursday towards the end of the season.Comment -
JM it just something i came up with i guess middle of season before last as i grew tired of watching what i affectionately call the "thu night shitfest"...several factors infolded, as jay said the short week has a lot to do with it for several reasons, less time to install a game plan for the week, nfl players are creatures of habit and this gm throws off their typical weeks, and honestly i dont think 3 days if enough time to recover from the pounding these guys take on sunday. seems as coaches tend to be more conservative, plays arnt executed with the same crispness, and generally there is just not a good offensive flow.. far as capping on a gm to gm basis for this gm sure i cap it but ultimately all that does is sometimes scare me on weeks i think the number low and trust me those ones hit just as often, thing is half the reason i think i came up with this is cause it doesnt matter how well you cap in general when it comes to this gm cause there to many outside factors, travel on a short week, which team got more banged up on sunday, ect ecet ect so while you can come up with a projection that makes total sense numbers wise or other and it all goes out the window when at times 1 or both of the teams really dont wanna be there...
in this particular gm it easy to see a under. pats come in banged up and will be playing some serious ball control offense, missing lot of weapons and jets d is above avg.. on the other side id expect Geno to do very little and for rex to do his best to establish a running gm (although have my doubts that will produce much it should at least keep the clock running)....biggest concern for me is pats turning geno over for short fields and possibly scores but again this bet isnt based off any of that as there will be several weeks where ill say if it wasnt thu id like the over and be scared when i bet the under but i learned the hard way passing when that is the case is a mistake!
nyj/pats un 21.5 ev 1.5x...raising this from last year where i started with just a half unit then increased later on as my confidence in the system grew...Comment -
JM ill post units if it makes you happy, they will all range from .5u to 3u ... half unit basically me getting down on some degen action, some of my halftime plays, dog mls, and parlays (although dont post my parlays real often as dont encourage anyone to do those).. majority of my plays between 1-2 units and 3 is really high as i go and not real often. i try to actually keep myself as close to a flat bettor as possible because to be perfectly honest when it comes to trying to determine my "best" play very often that turns into my worst, always been jealous of guys that can be around 50% but nail their big plays as that certainly not me and why you see that i make a ton of plays, if i see value, a edge, whatever you wanna call it ive found over the years im much better off just firing away instead of trying to narrow my card as so many times i throw out the winners and keep the losers and turn what would have been a winning card into a day that has me breaking shit!
far as teasers go i think there is value in playing 2 team 6 point teases in the nfl... i only tease gms that fit wong tease criteria (numbers that cross the 3 and 7, except on occasion i will also tease 4/4.5 dogs to 10/10.5)..been tons of discussion on this subject all over the place over the years and am not trying to argue or debate anything about how anyone chooses to go about their teases but that just the way i do it...
far as nba goes you can have that shit brother as besides the random thu night and xmas i dont bet the nba and have no idea how or why anyone does (lol), i do love NBA playoffs as that pretty much like free money most years. but i dedicate my time in the basketball season to college which is prob my best most consistent sport..
hopefully i have addressed all you questions from the above post as im ready to get a bunch more of the card rolling now!Comment -
plays that were made and posted already...not gonna re-wright anything on them as thoughts are a page or 2 back if interested, no problem answering any questions anyone may have tho..
rams+7.. 1x
sd/phi ov 53.. 1.5x
nyj/pats 1st half un 21.5. 1.5x
gonna try and knock out more of the card between now and morning..Comment -
Early 4 team total leans
GB/Was over 36.5
SD/Phi over 42
Car/Buf over 31
Jax/Oak under 52
Den/NYG over 42
Having hard time figuring which one of these loses.Comment -
I see my book has Jets O7 1st half (-130) any thoughts on this? Free money? If they are over 7 and pats score TD than total is over 21.5 1st half and I lose... figure if i bet both might win 1 or lose one unless jets hold pats to 10pts or less...
Thoughts? i haven't bet it yet.Comment -
Do it.Comment -
obviously hard for me to say as you adding/taking away enough points that they all better than my numbers of coarse, lol... if i had a gripe with one i think panthers/bills is rather low scoring but again 31 is super low, i made it like 42/43 so i guess id have seen a little more value teasing it up instead of down but still seems unlikely they dont get to 31, that just be the one id drop if any off the top of my head..Comment -
Any opinion on Balt / Phil tease under 1.Comment -
Like STL
and Jax and overComment -
1st quarter might kill our under. Should we chase 2nd half under roughly 21.5 I imagine.Comment -
Seen covers score at 10-6, idk what happened.Comment -
Bank. What kind of beer do u like?Comment -
Looks like i'll be chasing the under. I only had 1u on the under 1st half, so just do 1.5 2nd half. hopefully 21.5+ again. Last seconds
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U21.5 first half. Good job and congrats 2dabank and those who wonComment -
Two TD's get called back. Unreal.
Congrats my man.
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Freaking checking scores at work and seeing 19-3 is not good and than coming back later to see call is reversed. WHAT A ROLLER COASTER!Comment -
I need O37 for my teaser! Got some dumb brains.... need to cash this 2.5u to make it a good day.Comment -
Jumped on the first half under train as well, dodged a bullet but fukk it.
Banker how you feeling about the total in arizona?Comment -
Also anyone have any thoughts on tomorrow's NCAAF game? I might as well stop picking my own picks. I will be following what you all post in here and probably just chase 1st half and 2nd half for 1u than 1.5u and hopefully one of the halfs cover.Comment -
Hey there Bank! How you doin' bro? Came back to check out the thread.. very nice. I'll definitely be stopping by every week to get my NFL discussion fix. Any thoughts on the KC / DAL game? I'm leaning Chiefs at the moment but I think it will be close. What is your opinion on the total and/or sides? Thanks buddy.Comment -
thanx everyone, and thanx to the nfl for the gift that keeps on giving "the thu night shitfest"
next week will certainly test this theory as philly/kc the thu nigher but hopefully phi offense scores so much this week the number will be sky high. trust me no team scares me off the thu night under as last yr there were few that you would have thought no way and sure enough they still went under...remember no capping needed, why stress yourself out over a gm that hard to cap anyway when we have come up with a way that is a lock to profit by end of the year
was hoping to have the rest of card up tonight but friend of mines bday and we got some fire ass rolls so me capping games is highly doubtful, lol.. i do have a few hours right now tho so gonna see if i can get a few more plays up...Comment -
i honestly think this one of the hardest gms on the card, neither team really proved much week 1 imo.. i mean kc beat a team with a guy that should be selling used cars not playing qb in the nfl, and dal only won by 5 in a gm they got 5 freaking turnovers! i think a rejuvenated chiefs team playing at home where it used to be crazy and prob will again now that they relevant will be a tough out for dal especially with romo and dez banged up, just not sure im ready to lay points with the chiefs yet.. i havnt did much on this gm to give you a answer on the total either but will work on it 2marro..Comment -
panthers -3 -105..1x..should have played this when -2.5 was available (kinda screwed the pooch there). dont think it will matter tho as much as i hate playing short road dogs this line is off imo simply cause bills played a overrated pats team tough.. look the bottom line here is panthers have one of the best front 7s in football that no one talks about, they completely shut down one of the best run games in fb last week and it was no fluke. on the other side of the ball pats gashed bills in the run gmand deangalo was very impressive against a stout sea run d so i expect him and cam to run all over this bills team, not to mention i think cam has to licking his chops to pass on this secondary after having to play seachickens...in the end i just dont think bills offense can generate much in this gm and cam and co will control this gm on the ground in what i think will be a 24-14 panthers win.. as you can tell by score i also lean under but missed the good number early and will prob pass on total..Comment -
appears i made a mistake not playing bucs earlier in the week as that number down to a solid +3 everywhere..really thought that enough saints money would come in to get us a better line in tis gm but thus far that is not the case..i will def be on bucs but wont play till all the squares get involved sunday morning hoping can get another points and at leat 20 more cents on the ml..Comment -
What's the best site for live betting? I tried to get Bama ML down 14-0 but 3 sites and no lines.
Not big on fb but like live on hoops.Comment -
Bet dsi has great live betting options I must say made some good money using it this weekComment -
hey ! im one of those squares with money on the saints! my book has at -4.5 now, I snagged earlier in week at -2.5
I also like rams at +7 and gonna probably make carolina a 2unit bet since you like it too....
Im pissed I missed the seasons 1st half under banker thursday special, an especially easy cash (with those 2 teams, pats with beat up offense and geno smith) because I was freaking locked up in la county! dammit!Comment
