looks like hou gonna win this gm.. their defense finally decided to show up (little fukkin late)..
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live is ML play only nothing ATS...Comment -
I have 2.5u on SD -7 im really debating it now...Comment -
well that fake punt really screwed us jmComment -
I have sd -7 and o56.5 for my bigger bets, so need those two. Looks like a college game.Comment -
why the flying penetrate did sd come out throwing there? how god damn stupid, you need to eat clock but no you let rivers do what he does best and fukk up..might hit hou-4.5 live all a suddenComment -
well got my over, but going to lose 2.5u it looks like on SDComment -
shoot down 4.25u now on the season!Comment -
that sux man, no biggie tho. i feel fortunate i ended up bout 500 on the week as i had no business making as many plays as i did, couldnt help it tho cause unlike most week 1s just saw some really odd lines and felt like i had a good read.. next week is where it at as everyone overreacts to what they saw this week. we get you back on track..feel free to join the discussion in this thread this week as i find between me and all the other guys that contribute we end up with a lot of games we peg right down to the final score, always looking for more ppl to get involved as that what this thread about, im not the guy that just post plays and says "follow me" i just wanna share my point of view and discuss others ideals hoping that all leads to everyone getting to look at the gms from a different perspective which i think is huge..Comment -
Bank I just locked in a tease for Thursday +20NYJ and O37 for the game. 3u to win 2.5u. Cash it?Comment -
I actually expect more high scoring games next week. I am sure defenses will be better as well, but offensively teams were crap this week. As the announcers were saying, some main star players had almost no practice time with their team because of contracts and what not.Comment -
not sure if you were in my threads last year but unless i love a side i only make 1 bet every thu..1st half under, worked very well last yr and toward the end of the year the season before when i came up with it..firmly believe if you just bet that every thu at the end of the season you will be plus a decent amount on those plays so i really dont even both capping the gm, to me it to hard anyway as i think it a joke that they make teams play this gm while they preach "player safety" all it is is a money grab by a league worth 10s of billions of dollars..teams dont have time to properly prepare and generally come out with vanilla gm plans, guys arnt fully recovered from the beating they took on sunday so i came up with this and will continue playing it till it proves to no longer be successful...Comment -
well guys stubbornly re-popping the hou/sd under kinda hurt the overall record...if you know me i despise even keeping a record and will be shocked if it last more than a few weeks as to me what is important is the discussion and views on gms, i dont want or expect anyone to blindly tail me, just want to have a thread that we can all discuss and share ideas hopefully letting everyone including myself see different points of vies that cant do anything but help imo...think what i came up with was 18-10 overall with several ml dogs and a 2 team parlay hitting.. if you may have noticed i really dont post units all that much cause again im not here to play a tout but if ya must know im up roughly 500 for the week which im thrilled with as you gotta be fukkin insane to end week 1 with 28 freaking plays! in fairness to me several of those involved the same gm, like i took 2 losses with panthers spread and ml but think i made clear that the under was my fav play of the week so went 1-2 toward the record but made money on that gm (be up over a grand if panthers didnt throw that gm away!) ...anyways enough of this talk as im ready to start discussing week 2s card!!Comment -
i dont want to wait to discuss this gm as it is the 1st one that pops off the page at me and i suspect will be a very unpopular side so what better gm to start with that could lead to some debate!
aints/bucs..i will almost certainly be on the bucs. no interest in paying juice on +3.5 tho so gonna wait and see with this line, in a perfect world this thing gets hammered to hell and we end up seeing a 4/4.5 type number (might be wishful thinking) if it gets to that number i would tease bucs up and play them on the ml..
enough of the strategy down to why in the world i would like the bucs as im sure many played them vs jets and now think they are terrible... the last several years tampa has given the saints everything they have wanted and more, last gm last yr in n.o. not withstanding where bucs where on a downward spiral and appeared to have quit, however the gm they played in tampa last yr from what i recall although the saints won in a very close shootout there was a horrible call that cost tb the gm... did you know before last yr the bucs have managed to split this series every year going back to '08?
despite holding atl to 17 points this is not a good saints defense! ill give them credit they came out with 3 safties and confused the shit out of the dirty birds, confusing to me is why didnt atl run more against this look? after all they were avg 6.3 ypc yet choose to run the ball a measly 14 times! believe me bucs will not make that mistake as they will feed martin then feed him some more and i would expect him to gash this undermanned team that really doesnt have the personnel to play the 3-4 that ryan is trying to instal.
i know i will hear brees vs freeman and there really no rebuttal from me there as yes freeman is suspect at best and may very well be done in tb after this season. what i will say is even tho bucs did let geno smith get some things done i think it takes time for so many new pieces in the secondary to gel and think they will get better every week. this team has the personnel on defense to be dominate as the front 4 was already in tact and now with revis and golston added to the back end life will not be easy on teams coming to tampa this season..saints avg a measly 2.7 ypc against a falcon d that i dont rate all that high, if they thought rushing was hard last week wait till they try vs this tb group. so with no run gm brees gonna be throwing a lot, sure he will get his but he will also be under pressure and i think will make some mistakes. for all freemans flaws when he has the run gm going which he will he is gonna have opportunities for some big shots down the field to vincent jackson who no one on the saints can handle.. ultimately i think that bucs control the LOS on both sides of the ball, punish this defense with the run gm, and hit enough shots over the top to beat this saints team as it will all be on brees shoulders and he will make some mistakes with the pressure on him to make something happen every time he gets the ball knowing he will have limited possessions....i like the bucs to win this gm and will be betting accordingly unless someone can really come up with a convincing argument not to..Comment -
Great write up Banker I agree 100% with BucsComment -
right on brother..that panther/bills gm is one i cant wait to watch. you have any thoughts on that 1? leaning panthers simply cause that is a really good front 7 that i think can limit spiller and they see the kind of stuff ej will be running in practice every day. think this line may be low based off bils really good effort against the pats as while i love what the bills are doing i think it premature to say this is a pick'em on a neutral field as cam is ahead of ej at this point and defensively have to give panthers the nod. think cam has a pretty big game coming off the miserable task of facing the seachickens defense...Comment -
I got season tickets bank and watching the bills vs the pats I thought our depleted secondary played great they were right there on every play jus better throws and catches and we played very conservative on Offense think they are easing EJ in that being said I like the underComment -
yea i think the under a solid play..i love what your team is doing brother! in my bold predictions i said that bills would challenge pats and be in the mix for a playoff spot all yr.. ej and spiller running that zone read gonna be a nightmare for teams and marone a good coach, once that starts popping the downfield shots will be there...i said if ej didnt get hurt in preseason i would have bet bills ml . did hit their 2nd half ml tho! i just think panthers front 7 will be too much and Cam gotta be licking his chops vs secondary after having to deal with seachickens...pats time is running thin bro. bills and phins the future of that div!
when i finally get off parole next yr you gonna have to let me come up and take me to a gm!!Comment -
Banker, welcome back, always great to see your insight
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gotta play this next one now as i dont expect this number to be here all week..
rams+7...we faded my rams last week simply cause they were laying to many points vs a solid zona club (matter of fact we nailed the score
)...this week how can you not like getting a td with this team?
last week the saints beat atl with scheme as they showed them a defense not sure anyone has seen before, the puzzling thing to me was why the hell did atl go away from the run gm? they had great success as they should against a team that opted to play less lbs and a 3rd safety, the gm wasnt out of hand and in fact they had the early lead but this has kinda been my gripe with the dirty birds for last few years now they seem to suffer from a bit of a identity crises as they continue to add big time weapons yet seems they are hell bent on playing a certain way even when a team daring them to do something else..
look falcons are a extreamly talented team im not gonna say different but ill also tell you this, the oline is suspect.. the saints had to bring some exotic looks to take adv of this so naturally it exposed some holes that i felt atl did a poor job at times of exploiting. this week the rams will do no such thing as they have the defensive front to wreak havoc on this oline playing it straight up with a 4 man rush, that will leave 7 men in coverage and with talented corners if the atl wrs dont get off the line fast ryan will be on his ass quite often..im not saying rams will shut this team down as that would sound pretty foolish but i do think they can make some key plays and get off the field on 3rd down...
offensively im bradfords number 1 skeptic but in fairness this is the 1st season he has a solid oline and weapons around him so it make or break and id say he passed his 1st test with flying colors! completing 71% of his passes vs a very good zona defense that held qbs to 54% last season. atl on the other hand was in the bottom half of that last yr and just let brees complete 74% of his passes..atl run defense was stout vs the saints and rams didnt exactly shine running the ball, something i think may continue as long as richardson is the main guy as while i love the kid as he a hard worker and was a breath of fresh air the way he is willing to slam it up into the hole which was nice to see after years of watching falcons newly aquired rb pitty pat his way up to the line! (always knocked jackson for this as he way to big and strong to pussy foot it in the hole, maybe that why he still has something left tho), that said richardson has serious limitations as while i love the willingness to hit the hole with wreckless abandon he clearly lacks vision and pretty much is going where he is told whether a cutback lane devolopes or not be damned! Pead who was the highly touted kid out of college has still not tansitioned his gm to the nfl but he will be back from suspention this week and i believe he will get plenty of touches (if this kid emerges watch out for the rams)..sproles and graham tore up the atl lbs and i exect much of the same in the passing gm from the rams with cook/richardson/and pead. throw in tavon austin getting the ball in space and i expect bradford to once again complete a high percetage of his passes keeping falcons offense on the sideline for long periods of time..
my biggest concern here and it has been a ongoing one for stl for years and not sure it has gotten much better, they really struggle in the red zone convertng chances into tds..last yr they were right around 50% and the same thing went in week 1, i would think this would improve with a weapon like cook and maybe pead can help this ou but when you playing elite offenses like the falcons you cant settle for fgs half the time you are in the red zone and expect to win. atl hasnt been much better tho and rams defense also holds teams to roughly 50%..
in the end im not saying rams win this gm as im a realist and atl losing at home to start the year 0-2 seems unlikely but i dont believe it outside the relm of possibility either as this rams team is on the rise...we getting 7 points with a team i believe will dominate both sides of the LOS, the better defense, and while not as many weapons on the outside, and a qb that hasnt proven as much as ryan, a team that none the less has skill players in spots that i believe will be hard for atl to defend...since fisher has arrived he has done a excellent job of keeping gms close and giving his team a chance to win which is great when you have a qb that had one of the better 4th quarter qbrs in the nfl last year and proved it again in week 1 playing great fb late to win. i believe this gm comes down to the end and while i think matty ice pulls it out he will have his work cut out for him as bradford has begun to prove he shows up in the big moments and he is facing the softer d by a long shot..i like this gm to be a bit high scoring once again (from the guy who used to bet rams unders damn near every week it feels strange saying this), im gonna call it 31-27 falcons..
was kinda surprised i just came up with a number that high and think a play on the over may be in order as well..more i look low side where there more fgs i think something like 27-23 possible but that still over, lol..Comment -
gotta play this one right now....
sd/phi over 53...not much to say, my thoughts about phillys offense have been well documented and as ive said until they start putting these lines up over 56 im playing the overs..Comment -
love the thread appreciate the insight bank
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Bank, you brought up locker room issues with Miami? Is it the recent reports about Wallace? Or that issue with Starks?
What you think about taking home points with Arizona this week? Another fishy line with this game.
And what about laying 6.5 or 7 now with Bengals for Monday as I don't think the line is going to get any better?Comment -
didnt post any teasers for week 1 (did play one last night but didnt post) but see some pretty solid looking teaser gms this week..gonna just list the teams i think look good in teasers then will decide on a few 2 teamers later in the week..
pack will torch skins secondary and while keapernick threw all over them lot of that had to do with how hell bent they were on defending the read option, good news this week is they can defend the read option and dont have to worry bout rg3 throwing anything close to keap as he is no where near the passer keap is. another shootout skins arnt equip to keep up in..
philly...when rivers tries to keep up with this offense he bound to make mistakes and in the end prob dont even need the tease but confident phi wins this gm..
balty..Jekyll and Hyde ravens back at home where they tend to boat race opponents. phins put weeden on his ass a bunch of times and think suggs and co do the same..
phins..actually think they can beat indy but getting them at +8.5 seems like a no brainer as all indy wins are tight
bears i suppose but actually think i will lay the 6.5. they kept cutler clean against a very good cincy front, if he stays upright here he will torch this secondary. bears wont let ap beat them and ponder cant beat anyone. this might be blowout of the week. not sure how long it will take for ppl to realize minny making playoffs last yr was a freak occurrence and they gonna finish in the basement of this div..
bucs..another dog i like to win but dont believe there a chance in hell they lose by more than a td..
sf..if you can get more than 7 with these guys and possibly 10 you cant go wrong i dont think. sea still shorthanded up front which aint something you want against this team..
like i said bunch of teams i think it be hard to go wrong with a tease this week.. love to hear what everyone thinks the best 2 team combinations are as im a believer teasers are a great tool in the nfl as long as you can keep yourself from being greedy and stick to 2 team 6 pointers. so many ppl i know would tease them all cause hey they all look good, that where they get ya, dont be greedy looking for plus money by adding teams, stick to two teams and reap the rewards!Comment -
yea wallace, starks, seems everyone they paid, whining like a bunch of fukkin girls when the team got the W. imo that not only is classless but pretty much tells me winning isnt what is important to these assholes..
zona oline vs det front concerns me, havnt got into that gm much but that my initial reaction is can palmer stay upright long enough to get the ball to his weapons? lot of weapons on the outside in this gm, may peak at the total but as of now no real lean, doubt it hurts to wait on that one if you like zona..
as bad as pit looks not sure im ready to lay a td or more on cincy vs them, another one i havnt spent any time on yet tho..Comment -
Only way I am playing TB (low scoring offense) vs Breeze is in a teaser. There is no way I think this team wins. I think Saints blitz scheme will stop them from running the ball too much and I do not think TB is a confident offense when it comes to heads up match in throwing the ball. Breeze wins this 9 out of 10 times if it comes down to throwing the ball.
I couldn't agree more with your other plays though. Just to list your "leans" I will call them for now because Idk if you actually locked them in.
I think your strongest play listed were the panthers. They played great against SEA. They reminded me of Greenbay's team who gives up a ton of yards, but doesn't allow a lot of points.
I also think another game people will not look at, but I feel is a really strong play is OAK -6. JAGS are just flat out terrible only scoring 2 points against KC and blowing an easy conversion for a TD at the very end of the game. They had 4 tries to gain 2 yards (one 5 yard penalty). They didn't even come close. Meanwhile no one gave Oakland a chance against the colts but they held their own. Looking for Oakland to dominate Jags here.
BANKS plays
SD/phi O53
STL +7
TB +3.5
CAR -3
Miami in a tease +8.5
My leans:
Oak -6
My thoughts are kinda sporadic as I am at work trying to do several things at once. I can post more indepth tomorrrow and give some more leans. I do like a lot of dogs though this week with a tease and the Over. I feel you are pretty spot on going with some overs on select teams and underdogs with a tease. My book has a (-120) tease for 7pts so I will be teasing a few games myself. I will try and stay disciplined though as you said and only do a very select few. I will probably divide early games and late games and do some form of a chase for a small profit.
Mean while spread is dropping on Thursdays game so I am glad I got on it last night.Comment -
saints blitz scheme allowed 6.3 ypc last week, for whatever reason that wasnt enough for atl as they proceeded to only run the ball 14 times, i can assure you that will not be the case sunday...i mean yea if we saying it brees vs freeman brees wins. however i get the superior run gm and much better defense. honestly dont even care bout the points as i think bucs win this gm vs a saints team that really isnt all that good..
honestly i lean jags+6 with henne playing qb. not sure if i play it but jax is a significantly better team when that waste of space gabbert isnt behind center checking down every play..Comment -
Just looked at some lines on my book and see PHI -7.5 and on covers its -9.5 should I lock in PHI now cause line is about to jump? Its weird cause majority is on SD for the public, so maybe line is dropping...? Confused...
I do not think I will ever lay any money on Jags unless they are +16 and than I tease them to +23... I am not too familiar with all the players, i just look at game tempo and previous games. I will have to look into those two games a bit more now that you disagreed with me. Still have lots of time and I am probably only going to pick two early games Sunday with a tease and than figure out what I want to bet in the 4pm ET games after. You are crushing the PHI line right now.. I am really thinking of teasing PHI to -.5 and taking the over at o47.5 with my 7pt tease. Might put 2-3units on that tonight.Comment -
Took a closer look at raiders and jags. Just looking at rushing yards, penalties, passing yards, etc. Just overall team stats. I do not know about Jags back up QB, but I do not think he is going to change the team. Unless he is a top 5 QB, I see this team pretty much going winless this season. I will definitely be teasing the raiders to under -2.5 or less. If I am not too chicken, maybe Ill just buy points up and see if i get them to -8.5 for +money.
Raiders -6, STL +7, SD/pHi o54
Trying create a list of plays, so come closer to sunday can find all the plays easily.Comment -
JM it is chad henne, you know who he is, he been around the block, but before you assume that he doesnt make that team better i urge you to go back and look at the last 6 or so weeks after gabbert got hurt last year.. it not that henne is anything special i mean he a journeyman but that is a huge upgrade over gabbert, if you been around my threads the last few years you would know what i think of that bum, being a mizzou fan i watched that kid all thru college and i personally didnt think he deserved to be drafted period let alone taking with the 8th damn pick! the guy was a scrub in college and the only explanation i have that he got drafted in the top 10 (or at all) is cause these guys didnt bother to watch any gm tape and fell in love with his measurables cause anyone who watched him in college knew he shouldnt even been qb;ing a d1 program let alone a nfl team. im firmly convinced the reason jags are starting him this yr is so they have their choice of qbs coming out in next years draft as henne gives them a much better chance to compete as he will push the ball down the field which in turn helps open up some run lanes..
not sure what overall team stats yo are looking at? just week 1? i wouldnt get too caught up in stats yet as you need a solid 4-6 weeks to really apply them imo, you can always go back to last season to a extent but that only helps so much.. believe me when i tell yo any stats accumulated when gabbert was playing qb are irrelevant not to mention jags played a kc team that has what 5 maybe 6 pro bowlers on defense while oak wa playing the colts suspect d.. trust me im not here to say i love the idea of playing the jags traveling west but just warning you they a different team with henne at qb and i think mjd will get th ground gm going against oak. ultimately oak shouldnt be laying 6 points to my nephews pee wee team unless of coarse gabbert was the qb
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i think as long as yo can get less than 56 in the philly gm the over is still good, wouldnt play it any higher than that..Comment