Pendulum Cycle Theory Experiment; Year 2

[wolvesguy89]

Take ATL week 2 almost no matter what. There's no way this team goes 0-2. I think they've opened at 6.5 which would be perfect.

The Chicago Bears own the Vikings when playing at Soldier field. I'm a vikings fan and believe me, they are fukked. Adrian Peterson can only carry them so far. Ponder is even more horrific on the road than he is at home. I don't think the Bears lose under any circumstance.

DEN/NYG or WSH/GB over.
I see both of these games bein very high scoring. None of the defenses are anything special, and you know none of these offenses are gonna lay an egg by any means.

Seattle over SF. Home opener for the hawks in the crazy loud, 12th man environment. Seattle piss pounded the niners at home last year. I don't think that happens again, but win or lose its gonna be a very close game.

Those are my 4 leans for next week. I will wait til Friday or Saturday til I make a final decision.

[arpeggiomeister]

I was not willing to pull the trigger, but the homedog +6 or more theory is 1-0 for week 1.

[arpeggiomeister]

I am looking at the New England game and considering a parlay matrix.

$200 o43.5
$100 NYJ +12.5/u43.5

I think there is way too many points being given to NE given what we saw in Buffalo. If this game goes over it favors NE but under I think favors the Jets.

Any thoughts?

[arpeggiomeister]

Just pulled the trigger on this one. I think 12.5 is way too steep on this game. I do not have the courage to just bet the Jets straight up in this game but this way I have a little insurance.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have several early plays for next week. For the most part these are 1 unit plays, but I have a parlay where I adjust the amount down to what I would win in the teaser play.

I have:

ATL -6.5
NO -3
DET -1.5

I placed 1 unit on each straight up. I put the three teams in a 10 point teaser. I also put them in a 3 team parlay.

ATL is on my elite teams in the power rankings. They lost against the spread so I take them for this game.

I think NO is undervaued right now. I think they belong in the conversation of elite teams. TB failed to cover against the Jets which were in the bottom 5 of my power rankings. I think the Jets deserve some credit for playing tough, but I do not think TB has turned the corner yet. They have the talent but I think this is a different Saints team then last year.

I think that Detroit is an undervalued team right now. Ari is in my bottom 10 in the power rankings. I think they are outmatched offensively and though their defense is stout, the Lions are looking pretty good on that side of the ball as well.

[arpeggiomeister]

BETdsi has not released the DEN game yet, but the early odds show them as -3 favorites. This seems very low to me and I wil be looking to snag them as soon as it comes out.

[playr101]

any 2 leg parlays brewing?

-playr101

[arpeggiomeister]

any 2 leg parlays brewing?

-playr101

Yes, I listed it above. It is a matrix. I went with Speed Racer's idea. I am on the New England game. I put $200 on the over and $100 on the Jets +12.5/u 43

I think you could take ATL, DET, NO, and DEN and create several 2 team parlays out of that. I just grabbed DEN -5. I do not have multiple accounts or I would try and get the -4. I think they should blow this spread out big time.

I just placed several combinations. I have DEN straight at -5, a 10 point teaser with DEN, NO, and DET, and I placed a small bet on a longshot 5 team parlay, DEN, NO, ATL, DET, and CIN.

My action is locked in for week 2. Good luck to everyone

[playr101]

Ok.. I see now...

thx

Gl

-playr101

[arpeggiomeister]

Updated power rankings list

DEN
SF
SEA
HOU
NO
ATL
BAL
GB
DAL
NYG
NE
WAS
DET
CIN
CHI
SD
KC
MIA
STL
MIN
IND
PIT
CAR
PHI
ARI
TB
TEN
NYJ
BUF
CLE
OAK
JAC


Any list is bound to be controversial. The process I went through to get this list is much more complicated than just a gut check. I project the winners in each game looking at the schedule and create my first list based on those numbers. Next I give them a letter rating using Dan Gordon's Beat the Sports Book. Finally I look at the strength of schedule.

The Buccaneers may be in a controversial spot, but considering they lost to the lowly Jets I think they are right where they should be and will not move them up the rankings until they can prove they deserve it.

I think New England is coming in way too high in most power rankings I see. The power rankings on this site have them in the top 10. Being from Maine, I am a Patriots fan (required by law up here, lol) but they are not a top 10 team this year. Do you really think they could hold up against the Giants or the Cowboys. I think this team is highly overrated right now.

I have NO high in the ratings and I think they are undervalued. I think people saw them suck last year and expect them to be the same. Not so. This is an elite team in a time where most of the elite teams have fallen down the ladder. They may not be able to beat the 49ers or the Broncos, but I definitely think they are better then the Patriots or Giants right now. Everybody seems to think that Atlanta will be the NFC south champion, but I think the Saints will give them a run for their money. It could go either way.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have been using Dan Gordon's letter system to create my own point spreads. I am not good enough at this to consider this info reliable, but it is how I am seeing the value that I used to make my decisions.

According to my spreads DEN should be -9, NO should be -10.5, and ATL should be -8.5.

I was surpirsed to see when I did this that NE was -12. That is right about where Vegas opened them at.

It is a lot of tedious work to do these things, but hopefully it pays off.

[keel44]

I am looking at the New England game and considering a parlay matrix.

$200 o43.5
$100 NYJ +12.5/u43.5

I think there is way too many points being given to NE given what we saw in Buffalo. If this game goes over it favors NE but under I think favors the Jets.

Any thoughts?

I like your idea here. I have done some calculations.

I have calculated the amounts for betting like this. I calculated the formulas for splitting the profit exactly between the 2 scenarios. (I like everything neat)

assume all odds of -110

4.042 * profit = total risk
total risk / 2.886 = parlay risk
total risk / 1.53 = straight bet risk

You pick what you want to profit or you can pick what you want to risk totally.

[arpeggiomeister]

I like your idea here. I have done some calculations.

I have calculated the amounts for betting like this. I calculated the formulas for splitting the profit exactly between the 2 scenarios. (I like everything neat)

assume all odds of -110

4.042 * profit = total risk
total risk / 2.886 = parlay risk
total risk / 1.53 = straight bet risk

You pick what you want to profit or you can pick what you want to risk totally.

Thanks for that. In this case I kind of like it out of balance because I am leaning towards the over. As with any idea, we can take it and tweak it until it suits our personal style.

[arpeggiomeister]

Parlay matrix on Jets/Pats game covers. If I had more courage I would have taken the Jets straight up for the points but being a Patriots fan that is a tough thing for me to do. This was a big step in the right direction though.

[arpeggiomeister]

There are no >+6 homedogs this week. The closest one is the Giants at +4.5. This may be square thinking on my part but I think anything under a touchdown on the Broncos is a bargain in this game.

[arpeggiomeister]

I saw Jeff Cadillac featured in one of the SBR videos and decided to check out his website. This guy picked every NFL game and went roughly 56%; 9-6-1.

I played with the numbers using different strategies and what really stood out was 10 point teasers. If you used his picks and made them into 10 point teasers he went 16-0.

Last week only had 5 teams that would have failed in a 10 point teaser. I am going to continue to track this. I want to see how he does this week. If he is good I may start tailing him. That fact that he is picking all the games means you can turn a serious profit if his percentage is good. 56% is more then enough to double your money for the season if he is picking every game.

[arpeggiomeister]

More plays for tomorrow:

10 point teaser:

SD vs PHI 044.5
HOU +2
CIN +3.5

I also took CIN -6.5 in a straight bet. Both plays are 1 unit

[arpeggiomeister]

Showing a modest profit so far for all the money I risked this week. I am up $83. It is funny, this whole week's profit or loss rides on Cincinnatti tomorrow. If they beat the spread I will be up $270 for the week. I have them SU and in a 10 point teaser. If they cover the teaser but not the spread I will be up $64.

[arpeggiomeister]

A good weekend. I risked over $1,000 and came out with about $290 in profit. I was hoping for much more but I will take it. I have tried many things.


My straight bets I bet on 5 teams and went 3-2. (Should have been 4-1 but the Saints gave up so many scoring opportunities it made me want to puke. Of course if I want to go down that road than I can make excuses for why I should have gone 5-0 every week. lol)

I had three 10 point teasers and went 3-0. Since these teasers are my primary weapon I am extremely proud of that stat. It could just be luck.

I had 2 parlays and went 0-2. That ate into the profits a bit, but even if only one hit my profits would be much larger.

I have already grabbed the Denver -14 and saw that it has climbed half a point since this morning. I have to do some thinking. I may try the same approach next weekend, but looking at my results I should put more emphasis on the teasers and not the straight bets or parlays.

[arpeggiomeister]

First 10 pt teaser of the week.

KC vs PHI o/40.5
ATL +12
SF -0.5

[arpeggiomeister]

Second teaser of the week.

KC vs PHI o/41
NYG +11
DEN -5

I wanted to hold off until closer to Sunday but I really like teasing the over in the KC vs PHI game. I teased them in with my heavy leans for this weekend.

I did both of these bets at 1 unit each. I am looking at doing 4 more teasers at 2 units each this weekend. I was going to do 8 more one unit bets but am leaning towards narrowing down the field to the bets I like the best and ride them.

Early leans are NO, ATL, SF, NYG, DEN.

I think Arizona has been overperforming and now they are walking into the Saint's house The Saints have moved up the power rankings and I believe are one of the elite teams while Arizona is average at best. The Cardinals won the game because of a pass interference call. That is a sloppy win in my opinion. They are not facing the Lions, they are facing the Saints. If they can't keep up they will get crushed. Saints roll.

I feel the same way about Miami that I feel about Arizona but I have a little more respect for Miami. They spent some money and made some acquisitions and they look to be paying off. I feel the spread is pretty accurate on this game but I do not see the Falcons losing by 12 points. Win or lose, the Falcons are going to be in this thing right up to the end. That is why I thin they are a great 10 point teaser candidate.

SF is coming off a tough loss in Seattle. Indy lost to Miami and had a tough time with the Raiders. The 49ers are an elite team. If indy can't handle average teams what do you think an elite team will do to them at home. Teasing SF to -0.5 is money in the bank.

The Giants have lost their first two games and people are talking like they should pack it in. They are a very good team who faced very good teams and lost. The Panthers are not a good team. I think the Giants hand them their ass this weekend. When teased to +11 I really like this pick.

Denver is a juggernaut, but that is not why they have made the list. The Raiders have outperformed my expectations by a mile. When a bad team outperforms that is a fade in my book. They face arguably the best team in the league, certainly the best in the AFC. They could get a backdoor cover at +15, but Denver wins this thing by at least a touchdown so I like teasing DEN to -5.

These picks all fit the Pendulum Cycle Theory. The Cardinals, Dolphins, and Raiders have all overperformed according to my power rankings thus making them a fade. SF and NYG are good teams that underperformed and I expect them to rebound. I especially like the Giants because it appears people have written them off. This site has them as 21 in the power rankings behind the likes of the Cardinals, Rams, and Titans. The Giants are a better team then all three of those. That tells me there is a knee-jerk reaction and there is a lot of value in the Giants right now. I will probably take them SU as well as in the teasers.

[arpeggiomeister]

Both teasers off to a good start. I have 4 other teasers and I have 2 units each on them. This is a teaser matrix variation. I did not make 10 teasers, I instead narrowed it down to the games I really liked and made 6. The first two were for 1 unit each. Those are the KC teasers.

Here are the other 4:

SF pk
BUF +12
ATL +12

NO +3
NYG +11
BUF +12

SF pk
ATL +12
DEN -5.5

NO -3
NYG +11
DEN -5.5

I split my bankroll in half to try the matrix idea and tail Jeff Cadillac with the other. This makes each unit roughly 2.5% of my bankroll.

The way ths balances out I am exposed to my favorite teams 3 times for 5 units. NO and Buff I am exposed 2 times for 4 units. If any 5 unit team loses then I have a small loss. If a 4 unit team loses I have a small gain. If 2 or more legs lose I am looking at a good sized loss. If they all hit I will gain 21% in my bankroll. I like my chances.

I also rode the Jeff Cadillac plays for 1 unit each. He is off to a good start with a KC+3 win.

[Patches]

Really good stuff. This is the kind of thinking that makes a winning sports bettor.

[arpeggiomeister]

Really good stuff. This is the kind of thinking that makes a winning sports bettor.

Thanks. I still have a lot to learn, but I have come a long ways from where I started.

[arpeggiomeister]

Giants are getting crushed.

I am trying to make some of that back with a 12 point teaser

SEA -7
SF +2
ATL +15

$475 to win $250

[arpeggiomeister]

Took a severe beating this weekend. My strong picks both failed (SF and NYG). Since I had them in a matrix every 10 point teaser bet failed. (The Jeff Cadillac picks did horrible as well) As a result they are actually the strongest picks for this theory going into week 4. My theory is based on knee-jerk reaction psychology. The best reason to think that I am right is the fact that I am feeling that psychology myself right now. I do not want to touch Giants or the 49ers with a 10 foot pole. If the rest of the public is feeling the way I do right now then the spreads will be weak on these teams making them high value plays.

It will take at least a month, if not the rest of the season to recoup my losses from this weekend but I will step up to the challenge. I will risk something on the 49ers and Giants. It might just be $5 but I will put them in a 10 point teaser this weekend.

[MobFade]

The Eagles of last year are a great example of how a team can not live up to expectations and never bounce back because they weren't the team everyone thought they were. They were 4-12 ATS because they were overrated all year. The NYG look a lot like that right now. This week isn't a good week to hope for a bounce-back with their line still in shambles and that defense looking like it might as well just stay home. The NYG showed down the stretch last year that they weren't a good team, and they're showing it again.

The 49ers have some real problems too in their secondary and in their WR corps. Neither could be considered good, and the areas of the team that masked these deficiencies is falling apart ATM. Short week going to STL to play a team designed to beat them might not be the spot to see if Kaepernick has his head on right yet.

I see where your head is at with the contrarian bounce-back stuff, but these aren't the only spots where there is value because of public perception. Teams like Carolina are flying under the radar, and teams like NYJ, TEN, ARI are going to play a lot of games close. These are the kind of spots I would look for. Healthy teams that play good D taking on public teams and getting too many points.

[arpeggiomeister]

The Eagles of last year are a great example of how a team can not live up to expectations and never bounce back because they weren't the team everyone thought they were. They were 4-12 ATS because they were overrated all year. The NYG look a lot like that right now. This week isn't a good week to hope for a bounce-back with their line still in shambles and that defense looking like it might as well just stay home. The NYG showed down the stretch last year that they weren't a good team, and they're showing it again.

The 49ers have some real problems too in their secondary and in their WR corps. Neither could be considered good, and the areas of the team that masked these deficiencies is falling apart ATM. Short week going to STL to play a team designed to beat them might not be the spot to see if Kaepernick has his head on right yet.

I see where your head is at with the contrarian bounce-back stuff, but these aren't the only spots where there is value because of public perception. Teams like Carolina are flying under the radar, and teams like NYJ, TEN, ARI are going to play a lot of games close. These are the kind of spots I would look for. Healthy teams that play good D taking on public teams and getting too many points.

Good stuff. Insightful as always. Thanks for your input.

[arpeggiomeister]

I followed Bi Al McMordie's picks for college football on Saturday. He went 6-3-1. I do not have much profit to show because I put too much money on his 3 star plays which lost. If I level this out that should be profitable. I will do this for next week.

My 10 point teaser plays for today are:

SF o42 (covered on Thursday)
IND +2.5
DEN -0.5

BUF +12.5
CLE +13.5
HOU +12

*these are Al McMordies picks. I did not dare to play them straight.

DEN -0.5
ATL +7.5
NO +3.5

[arpeggiomeister]

Under Mobfade's advice I stayed away from the 49ers and Giants. The 49ers covered SU. THe Giants are +3.5 at Betdsi. In a teaser they would be +13.5.

This is just a papertrade but let's throw them in with NO.

SF +6.5 (covered on Thursday)
NYG +13.5
NO +3.5

If this covers it should go a long way towards proving my theory.

[arpeggiomeister]

Finally!!! A kick ass week. I pulled in about $700. I still have a long ways to go to recover from week 3 but this was a huge boost.

I followed Al McMordie's picks and he just tore it up, especially on college. His NFL picks give me the jitters this week though.

Here are my early 10 point teaser picks for week 5:

NE +11
STL -1
GB/DET over 42

I have $30 to win $25.

ARI +12
OAK +14
NY/PHI over 43.5

This is also $30 to win $25. These are Big Al's picks not mine. In the first teaser I actually faded his picks. They gave me the creeps. Did he not watch the Patriots vs the Falcons????? He also has Jacksonville again this week. I will not pull the trigger on the Jaguars unless they can show me something. The Rams have life this year, the Jaguars just plain suck. I'll tease the Rams thank you very much.

The last teaser is mine and I have $60 to win $50 on it:

NO/CHI over 37.5
DEN +3
ATL +1.5

Atlanta is desperate for a win. The Saints are positioned to run away with that division if Atlanta does not step things up on Monday. They can not afford to lose this game. Denver is rolling. I will continue to ride that gravy train until it stops cashing in. The Saints started to look more like the Saints against the Dolphins. I can see this game going over 40 points easily.

Glad I paper traded the NYG teaser. Mobfade saved me some money their. Thanks!!! SF bounced back but NYG is a disaster right now.

[arpeggiomeister]

I followed Big Al McMordie's college picks for college and was waiting to see how it panned out before placing my final teaser. His plays did not do so well this week. I came out with a small loss. I placed a teaser for today:

STL -0.5
DEN +2.5
ATL pk

If all of my NFL teasers cover I will have a small profit for the week. I put out some big money (at least for me) this week so I hope I get a little something to show for it once the dust has settled. We will know after tomorrow.

[arpeggiomeister]

On another note, following the homedog +6 or greater we have a fail to reprot. The Jaguars lost to the Colts as +9.5 underdogs. There have not been many homedogs of 6 or more to report on. I think that is because of the parity in the teams this year. In the few years I have followed I have never seen teams so evenly matched.

Denver is extremely dominant and the Jaguars are easily the worst team in the league, but they are the only two that really stand out. The bad teams are much better this year and the dominant teams are much worse. At least for me, this has been the toughest year to get a good read on games.

I was about to write off the Colts and they picked up Trent Richardson and it breathed new life into them. Today will be a true test against the Seahawks. Even if they lose if the hang tough then it may be time to edge them up the power rankings a bit.

The Patriots played well against the Falcons but now Vince Wilfork is out. He has been a staple of that defense. Will they still be strong against the run?

What is going on with the Falcons? They were a playoff favorite going into this season. I am not surpised to see the Saints dominating that division, but the early read looks like they may run away with it. I was not expecting that. I thought the Falcons would give them a good fight for the title.

In years past you could count on a stable of teams to dominate: the Patriots, the Packers, the Steelers. I never had a problem of creating a list of 8 to 10 teams that were clearly better then the rest. The same is true for the underdogs. Not this year. I only have 3 teams that are clearly elite and only one dependable underdog. It will take me time to uncover some trends, perhaps all season.

Given that the parity picture has changed so drastically I would expect the trends to change drastically as well.

[arpeggiomeister]

Just realized I forgot to update my last play. When GB failed to hit the over I doubled down on a 10 point teaser:

Denver +2.5
Denver over 46.5
Atlanta +0.5

I put $72 to win $60 on this. Denver scared the crap out of me but I am still alive for tomorrow. Whether this week is a profitable one or a loss comes down to Atlanta. I hate being in situations like that, but I should consider myself lucky. Had Denver lost I would already be inthe loss column. The same is true of Atlanta but they are playing the Jets. I feel better about that then I did about the Broncos. I felt this was the first real test of the Broncos and should keep the point spreads down for a little longer. Next week I will be shocked if they do not come out as 20 point favorites to beat the Jaguars. I will be looking to tease that game if the spread is anywhere close to reasonable. (20 or less).

[arpeggiomeister]

Unbelievable. All the Falcons needed to do is have a defensive stand but they made Geno Smith look like a pro-bowl QB. Crushing loss.