Pendulum Cycle Theory Experiment; Year 2

[arpeggiomeister]

I am a little late, I posted my teaser for the week on some others but forgot to put it here.

I had the over on the Giants vs Bears game last night, the Seahawks, and the Saints:

GB/CHI o 37
SEA -3.5
NO +12.5

I grabbed this early because I thought the Saints being an underdog was some kind of mistake. I am a Patriots fan but I am also a fan of making money. I did not question this and grabbed it before it changed, but it has not budged. Curious.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have a 15 point teaser this week.





DEN +8.5

DEN/IND over 40.5

NE +11.5

KC +8.5





Denver is a classic Pendulum Cycle Theory play. With two losses
ATS the media is bashing this team. They are talking about the JAX
game as though these guys lost. 35-19 is a very respectable win by
an standards. -26.5 point spreads are what is ridiculous. At that
level you either take the underdog or stay the hell away. I chose
the latter.





Now people are talking like the Colts are going to beat the
Broncos SU. Anything is possible in the NFL but I do not see this
happening. If the Colts manage to stay in this thing and pull off a
miracle win then it will be by a field goal, a TD at most. Teasing
this line to +8.5 DEN seems like a christmas gift. I teased the over
as well because the only way Indy stays in this is to match points
with that brutal Broncos offense. This game should sail past 40.5
points with ease, probably before the first half is over.





NE vs NYJ scares me a little because the Pats are not the same
team us Patriots fans have become accustomed to year after year.
Still, they showed up enough to beat the Saints and I think they will
do the same with the Jets. In order for the Jets to win it will need
to be a defensive struggle in which case the Pats cover the teased
+11.5 spread.





KC is on fire. Andy Reid has this team believing. They are not perfect but they are getting the job done. That defense is a monster. Meanwhile, the Texans are a disaster. They have the talent but they are just falling apart at the wheels. If the Texans would get their shit together they could win the game SU, but I just don't see it happening in Arrowhead. This is a Pendulum Cycle Theory play due to player psychology, not the betting public. The Chiefs have the psychology of winners right now. The Texans do not.

[husky]

What are odds of a 15-point teaser??? Where do you do 15 point teasers

[racer43]

5Dimes has them.... 4 teams -300 odds

Teaser tl 15fb & 12bk

Teaser - ties lose - football 15 pts - basketball 12 pts

• 2 out of 2 pays -700
• 3 out of 3 pays -445
• 4 out of 4 pays -300
• 5 out of 5 pays -200
• 6 out of 6 pays -150
• 7 out of 7 pays -120
• 8 out of 8 pays +105
• 9 out of 9 pays +125
• 10 out of 10 pays +150
• 11 out of 11 pays +175
• 12 out of 12 pays +205
• 13 out of 13 pays +240
• 14 out of 14 pays +280
• 15 out of 15 pays +325

[arpeggiomeister]

Really close call but I got a backdoor cover from the Broncos. I went in the red during week 3 and have been struggling to get back ever since. With this win I am back in the black. Teasers really showed their worth this time as all 3 teams I picked lost ATS but covered with the extra 15 points. The only thing that didn't need the teaser was the over. I live to fight another week

[ny92mike]

Nice job.

Btw...thanks for turning me on to the teaser betting. Things worked out well for me too.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have 2 teasers going into week 8. Both are 15 point teasers.





Teaser 1:





SF -1.5

KC +8

NO over 35

NO +3





Teaser 2:





CIN +8.5

DEN over 42.5

DEN +1.5

SEA +4





Good luck to everyone in week 8.

[wolvesguy89]

Both look like Gold to me! I'm thinking about doing Packers +1 instead of Bengals +3.5 the Jets could pull one outta their ass again

[arpeggiomeister]

Yeah, if it were a 10 point teaser I might think twice about the Bengals, but if the Jets pull out a win I think it will be by a field goal. The Bengals are the better team all the way around but the Jets have been surprising. I think that Greenbay is a good pick too. I am concerned about all the injuries they have had, but the only real weapon the Vikings have is AP. He can not win it by himself. I think you should be golden.

[arpeggiomeister]

My early teaser covered and I put more in on my afternoon picks. I was too late to grab the Bengals so I substituted GB +7.5 in a 15 point teaser. So far it has been an outstanding weekend. Was not expecting the Bengals to totally blow out the Jets... ...but I'll take it. Denver over pick was really scaring me in the first half but going down by 14 points to the Redskins was a blessing. The Broncos turned on the afterburners and covered easily. Hopefully the Viking's woes continue. GB makes me a little nervous because of all the injuries, but I tend to follow QBs. Aaron Rodgers is far better then any of the Viking's yahoos. Adrian Peterson is their only weapon. The Seahawks should handle the Rams easily considering the QB situation.

[ny92mike]

My early teaser covered and I put more in on my afternoon picks. I was too late to grab the Bengals so I substituted GB +7.5 in a 15 point teaser. So far it has been an outstanding weekend. Was not expecting the Bengals to totally blow out the Jets... ...but I'll take it. Denver over pick was really scaring me in the first half but going down by 14 points to the Redskins was a blessing. The Broncos turned on the afterburners and covered easily. Hopefully the Viking's woes continue. GB makes me a little nervous because of all the injuries, but I tend to follow QBs. Aaron Rodgers is far better then any of the Viking's yahoos. Adrian Peterson is their only weapon. The Seahawks should handle the Rams easily considering the QB situation.

Nice work man... I'm really digging the teaser bets.

[arpeggiomeister]

Week 9 early 15 point teaser:





CIN +12

NO +9

DAL +4.5

TEN +12





I will have a late teaser as well. BETdsi has been glitchy and I
can not log in right now. Hopefully they have things straightened
out in the morning.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have my late game 15 point teaser picks:





SEA over 25.5

SEA pk

NE +8.5

GB +4.5





If I waited the line might drop more on the the Seahawks but I am
pretty comfortable with this. The Patriots scare me because they
have been ugly this year, but the Steelers are even worse. It is
hard to deny the referees calling plays in favor of the Pats at home.
I am a Pats fan but after seeing comments about the Zebras in Pats
games on here I started paying attention and it is pretty blatant at
times. I am counting on it here.

[arpeggiomeister]

Had a couple of really close calls today. The Saints scared the crap out of me and the Seahawks took 5 years off my life. I won my early teaser and the late one comes down to Greenbay tomorrow night. I am really digging these 15 point teasers. I thought about taking a 10 point teaser on the Saints. So glad I did not. I have been using compound interest to grow my profits and they are really taking off now. Assuming I win tomorrow, if I win one more 15 point teaser I will go over 100% ROI on the season. I will remove my initial capital and start again.

[ny92mike]

You may have already said this but what site are you using to place your bets?

[arpeggiomeister]

You may have already said this but what site are you using to place your bets?

I am on BETdsi. I was on 5dimes a while back and they have 20 point teasers.

[ny92mike]

Reason I ask is because on the teaser bets because I'm new to them I'm using the sbr sportbook to play the teaser bets but either its really limited in just selecting 2 thru 10 team teasers, but either I'm just not understanding it or something because I'm not seeing where you can adjust the number of points associated with the teaser.

[arpeggiomeister]

This was a really tough board this weekend. In way that is a good thing. Usually when it is tough to make choices the games tend to be tighter. Since we are using 15 point teasers that gives an advantage.

I did slip one of the early games in on my late game bet, because the board is so tough. I will give an explanation when I get there

Early games:

PHI/WAS over 38
DET +13
CHI +12
CIN +8.5

Late Games:

PHI +10.5
SD +13.5
SEA +2.5
NO +12

I was debating to tease Denver or not and talked myself out of it. Peyton Manning has been struggling with injuries to his ankles and knee. The Chiefs defense is one of the toughest in the league. If Peyton Manning goes down I do not even know who the backup QB is. Take him out of the game and this could look entirely different with a Chiefs team that doesn't turn the ball over and is very stingy on defense. On the other hand, if Manning does stay in the whole game and plays up to his potential I think the stronger offense outweighs the stronger defense, especially at home. I predict that the Chiefs could suffer their first defeat in blowout fashion. Ultimately the two outcomes I see are so drastically different that 15 points is not enough insurance, hell even 25 points would still make me uncomfortable.

I chose to slip the Eagles in this bet instead. There are a lot of things going on that make these games really tough to choose, especially the late games. I was going to take the Giants over the Packers but after doing some research on the web talked myself out of it. The Packers are vulnerable and the Giants are at home, but the Giants have just been awful this year. They won last week but it was a sloppy win. I can not put my trust in that.

Al McMordie went on SBR videos and picked the 49ers to rebound against the Saints. He almost talked me out of this game. I decided to go against him though because his picks are really predictable. The guy almost always goes after the underdogs. He had some logic for doing it, I can't say he was blindly picking the dogs, but I then took a look at the Saints and here is what I think. The Saints have been on fire at home. I do not expect that to change in this game. Their defense has been playing well. The 49ers offense has been struggling. NFL teams have started to figure out how to defend the read option and that takes away the 49ers biggest advantage. This pick does scare me a bit because when the 49ers are clicking on offense they can put up huge numbers. I ultimately decided to take the Saints because they are also capable of putting up huge numbers. I think they win this game straight up, but if they do not I am trusting that Drew Bress and company will keep this game close. +12 is a pretty big cushion.

Shawn: to win amount on both of these bets will be $600. That should come out to a risk amount of $1,500 a piece on them. I am setting this up as a set it and forget it deal. I have a band audition on Sunday so I will not be able to catch up on the action until later, eliminating the possibility of any last minute bets. Let me know if you have any questions.

[arpeggiomeister]

Wow, I just realized I did not get my week 10 games posted on here. oops!!!

[arpeggiomeister]

Here is my week 10 plays. I know they are not much use to anybody now but I am relying on this thread to be a running record of my plays. I can't believe I forgot to post. Aaaarrrfff!!! My back was against the wall after losing in week 9. I had made a couple of bets in the NHL and NBA to try and get a small chunk that I could start risking with the 15 point teasers again. Instead, I lost both bets and found myself in a hole. I went all in on this 15 point teaser to dig myself out. I was going to do a late play on NO, DEN, and ARI in a 10 point teaser but could not because the Bengals went into overtime and my money was locked up until that game covered.

	NFL[205] PHILADELPHIA +16-110 (B+15)
	NFL[210] NY GIANTS +8-115 (B+15)
	NFL[215] CINCINNATI +13-110 (B+15)
	NFL[217] DETROIT +15-110 (B+15)

[wolvesguy89]

Looks like $$$$$ to me as always!

[arpeggiomeister]

Big wins on both plays this weekend. Hopefully I can keep this up for three more bets which will double my bankroll. I am throwing all of my profit back in each time so it compounds each time. This will be a huge deal (to me anyways lol) if I can pull it off.

[arpeggiomeister]

This was a really tough board this weekend. In way that is a good thing. Usually when it is tough to make choices the games tend to be tighter. Since we are using 15 point teasers that gives an advantage.

I did slip one of the early games in on my late game bet, because the board is so tough. I will give an explanation when I get there

Early games:

PHI/WAS over 38
DET +13
CHI +12
CIN +8.5

Late Games:

PHI +10.5
SD +13.5
SEA +2.5
NO +12

I was debating to tease Denver or not and talked myself out of it. Peyton Manning has been struggling with injuries to his ankles and knee. The Chiefs defense is one of the toughest in the league. If Peyton Manning goes down I do not even know who the backup QB is. Take him out of the game and this could look entirely different with a Chiefs team that doesn't turn the ball over and is very stingy on defense. On the other hand, if Manning does stay in the whole game and plays up to his potential I think the stronger offense outweighs the stronger defense, especially at home. I predict that the Chiefs could suffer their first defeat in blowout fashion. Ultimately the two outcomes I see are so drastically different that 15 points is not enough insurance, hell even 25 points would still make me uncomfortable.

I chose to slip the Eagles in this bet instead. There are a lot of things going on that make these games really tough to choose, especially the late games. I was going to take the Giants over the Packers but after doing some research on the web talked myself out of it. The Packers are vulnerable and the Giants are at home, but the Giants have just been awful this year. They won last week but it was a sloppy win. I can not put my trust in that.

Al McMordie went on SBR videos and picked the 49ers to rebound against the Saints. He almost talked me out of this game. I decided to go against him though because his picks are really predictable. The guy almost always goes after the underdogs. He had some logic for doing it, I can't say he was blindly picking the dogs, but I then took a look at the Saints and here is what I think. The Saints have been on fire at home. I do not expect that to change in this game. Their defense has been playing well. The 49ers offense has been struggling. NFL teams have started to figure out how to defend the read option and that takes away the 49ers biggest advantage. This pick does scare me a bit because when the 49ers are clicking on offense they can put up huge numbers. I ultimately decided to take the Saints because they are also capable of putting up huge numbers. I think they win this game straight up, but if they do not I am trusting that Drew Bress and company will keep this game close. +12 is a pretty big cushion.

Shawn: to win amount on both of these bets will be $600. That should come out to a risk amount of $1,500 a piece on them. I am setting this up as a set it and forget it deal. I have a band audition on Sunday so I will not be able to catch up on the action until later, eliminating the possibility of any last minute bets. Let me know if you have any questions.

My apologies, I copied and pasted this from an e-mail I sent and I did not intend on putting up that last bit. Shawn is a friend from NY who is on this crazy venture with me.

[tr4sh]

how much units are you betting per? I read the first page and I still dont quite understand how you're chasing or exactly what's happening.

[arpeggiomeister]

how much units are you betting per? I read the first page and I still dont quite understand how you're chasing or exactly what's happening.

I am using a system that I developed myself and I have been experimenting with different approaches so it would be very hard tto explain and even more difficult to follow as I make adaptations on the fly. I will do my best. I am using some thing I call the Hybrid Martingale system. This is not what I started out with but after getting myself into trouble in week 3 I switched to it. The Hybrid Martingale is a combination of the Standard Martingale where you double your bets after a loss, and the Anti Martingale where you double down after a win. 2 weeks ago I suffered a loss that put me back to square on: $4,500. I am currently risking $2,000 per bet. Each 15 point teaser yields a 40% ROI, so I won $1,600 today. My goal is to repeat this feat next week. This will put me at a $3,200 profit. If I manage to reach this goal I will then risk all of that profit in an attempt to double my bankroll. At 40% that will leave me just $20 short of my mark so I will risk an extra $50 so I can hit it. I do not think in terms of units like most bettors, only in terms of ROI. It is not the same thought process. If I were to try and adapt in in terms of units (one unit being 5% of the bankroll) then I would say that I am currently risking 8.88 infinitive units per bet until I reach a profit of $3,200. At this point I will risk the entire profit. This approach is highly aggressive but my reasoning behind it is that I successfully made six 15 point teasers before losing. I looked at my bankroll and asked myself how I could double it if I managed to accomplish that again and came up with the plan I just described. This is my latest adaptation. I have adapted my approach 3 times so far this season. That is why it is so hard to track. My first attempt was not a chase program but something I called a matrix. I back tested these matrixes over the past 5 years and they were wildly successful but it damn near ended my season in week 3. I then switched to the hybrid Martingale but did not have a specific plan to double. After coming very close to doubling I tweaked that plan and am trying again.

[tr4sh]

haha ok still a bit confusing. I'm not looking to tail per say, this thread just caught my eye... BOL to you man

[arpeggiomeister]

only have one 15 point teaser for this weekend. I am trying to pick my games carefully as I get closer to my goal.

I have:

NO +6.5
CAR +11
DEN +12.5
SF +10

$2000 to win $800

[arpeggiomeister]

I have decided to take a shot this weekend. We will see what happens.

I have a 6 team parlay:

NO -6.5 (bought 2 points)
DET -6.5 (bought 1.5 point)
CAR money line -200
PIT +1.5
DEN -2.5
SF money line -230

Bet $100 to win $1,972.53

[arpeggiomeister]

I know this is a long shot but I have a healthy profit at the moment and feel it is worth the risk.

[arpeggiomeister]

Bummer. I knew it was a long shot. I would rather lose early like this then to have it come down to the 49ers on Monday night. That would be heartbreaking. I still stand to profit $700 this weekend so I can not be too upset.

[arpeggiomeister]

15 point teaser wins. I am looking at next week. I think I am going to try to get my bankroll over 100% ROI for the season this week. It will take 2 15 point teasers to do it.

[wolvesguy89]

Nice win man. I chose to lay off last week. I'm very glad I did because I would've taken the Lions and got crushed. Dodged a bullet there. I'm looking at the thanksgiving games and am definitely making a play. I'm thinking something along the lines of Lions +4, Cowboys +.5, and Oak/Dal O 35.5

[arpeggiomeister]

Best of luck to you brother. I am on a similar play but with the 15 pointers. Here is my early game teaser:

DET/GB over 34.5, DAL +5.5, PIT +18, NE +7. I currently have a $2,300 profit and am risking all of it to win $920. I will then roll that into my late game 15 point teaser. If both hit I will have 100% for the season. I am far from my original goal but I have had a rough season. If I can pull out of this with 100% ROI I will call it a success.

I risk busting myself back to square one, but I have been doing well so I am going to go for it.

[arpeggiomeister]

DET, DAL, and PIT all cover. It comes down to the Patriots. I will be looking to make my late teaser. I am going for 100% ROI this weekend. Hope I can keep it rolling.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have been going over this board all day and trying to pick my late game teaser. This has been really tough because most of the reads I have been getting are giving me an edge on the total and not the spread. Really tough board. I think part of it could be that if I win this bet I will double my bankroll, but if I lose I will be right back to square one. That is a lot of pressure to get it right.

My early leans are:

Denver +8.5 and over 34

This is a classic Pendulum Cycle play. The Broncos totally botched the game with the Patriots. This will make the public back off a bit thus making the line weak. KC has lost a couple of key defenders. Justin Houston is out. Tamba Hali is questionable. Even if he plays he will not be 100% and this changes the dynamics of the Chiefs who have been riding their defense to victory. Manning is going to pick this defense apart. The only shot they have to win is in a shootout. Smith surprised me, holding his own in a shoutout vs the Chargers, but the Chiefs lost that battle. Manning and all the Broncos weapons are far more scary then the Chargers. I don't see it happening.

New Orleans +19.5

This is my strongest read. I am not saying they are going to win this game even though I think they could. What I am saying is that I do not see them getting blown out. 15 points is a heck of a lot of points to have in your pocket with a team like the Saints. Add an extra 4.5 to that and I see that as a gift. The Seahawks are tough at home. They might win by 10, maybe even 14, but not 19. Stranger things have happened but I am trusting Brees and company to make a game of this.

On a side note, I usually automatically take an elite team coming off a bye. In this situation there are two factors that make me take the dog in this spot. The Saints are also an elite team. The playoff implications of this game are huge which is why I think the Saints will come with their A game. If the Seahawks win this it will not be without a fight. The second reason is that I feel a bye week could hurt the Seahawks in this spot. They had momentum going into the bye. The week off could break that momentum. This is going to be a good game and I could see it going either way.

I have been agonizing over the last leg of this teaser. I initially was going to take CAR +8. There is a lot of sharp money going on Tampa so I thought about flipping my position to TB +22. That play scares me too. I thought about Miami +17 but the Jets have shocked me with their losses and wins this year. Every time I think I have them figured out they surprise me. Buffalo +11.5 is tempting. The Falcons are a mess right now but they have the offensive fire power to win. I would hate to see them finally turn into the team I thought they were supposed to be when I finally start to fade them. At the moment I am thinking either BUF+11.5 or TB +22. I have seriously considered all of these plays for the final leg and have managed to talk myself out of all of them. I will sleep on it and decide tomorrow for sure.

Since I am looking at some early games in my late teaser I am going to have to pull the trigger without knowing for sure if the Patriots will cover. Ultimately I would like to watch the Pats game and place my late teaser when I know the outcome of that game. I simply will not have that luxury.

Assuming I win my early teaser I will have a profit of $3,220 on the season. I am rolling all of that in on this late teaser. If I win I will have a profit of $4,508. I started the season with $4,500. This will be over a 100% ROI. Best of luck to everyone this weekend