Pendulum Cycle Theory Experiment; Year 2

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  • fataliz
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-04-10
    • 334
    #71
    what if hits the total of 51? no action on the total, but you lose the juice on the parlays? so it's not exactly "no loss matrix".
      Comment
      • husky
        SBR Sharp
        • 08-14-13
        • 261
        #72
        Originally posted by fataliz
        what if hits the total of 51? no action on the total, but you lose the juice on the parlays? so it's not exactly "no loss matrix".
        Great catch fataliz. Arp, PM sent.
          Comment
          • fataliz
            SBR Sharp
            • 01-04-10
            • 334
            #73
            and worse if you hit the no action on handicap, and it goes under. so your bet become under for $8. a loss of $2 + whatever the juice on that. so i think action should be limited to games where total and handicap are 0.5 like chiefs and jax +/- 3.5 , o/u 42.5
              Comment
              • husky
                SBR Sharp
                • 08-14-13
                • 261
                #74
                I looked at the matrix closer. It does not work. If the under/bills hit for $10.58, you lose the pats/under parlay (-$4) and you lose the over 51 (-$10). You lose $14 and win $10.58. Shoot...I thought we found something!!!
                  Comment
                  • fataliz
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 01-04-10
                    • 334
                    #75
                    exactly... i was gonna post that...
                      Comment
                      • husky
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 08-14-13
                        • 261
                        #76
                        Oh well. I do still like your idea of parlaying the teams and totals leaving only one option that could count as a loss. If you pick your spots, and roll your winnings for 2-3 games and start the process over again....this may work!
                          Comment
                          • ticklz
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-29-12
                            • 962
                            #77
                            I’m somewhat confused to how this would work so lets see the various scenarios that could happen with these bets

                            Game goes over 51 you win 1.91 (9.91-4-4)
                            NE covers the -10 and the game goes under 51 you lose 3.42 (10.58-4-10)
                            Buffalo covers +10 and the game goes under 51 you lose 3.42 (10.58-4-10)

                            In the event of the of NE winning by only 10 and the game goes under I think that you would lose again as the parlays would only pay the -110 on the under (or sometimes it may void) either way your going to lose.

                            So I guess what I am asking is why not just put one unit on the over id you feel so strongly about it?
                              Comment
                              • MobFade
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 10-13-12
                                • 677
                                #78
                                Finding something like this is going to require going deeper than just trying to arb at a single book. Below I posted graphs for the "Dog/Under" and "Chalk/Over" correlations. The public bet percentages can be found each week here if you Google "the spread public bets" and click the first result. This stat is key to me because it will discount situations for instance where you have a CONSENSUS public dog (i.e. BAL, CIN, ARI, GB, or TEN this week). Not that those aren't profitable spots, but they are spots the public has identified value, perhaps for reasons like a key injury, coaching change, weather, filtering out one statistical-outlier game like a blowout, two good teams playing each other, etc. It is WAYYY too intensive to try and go back to look at each situation individually and you would shrink your sample size to an inconclusive amount, so taking the betting consensus should screen out one-off situations like these that change an entire team's game outlook though the stats might say otherwise.

                                Dog/Under: Parameters mean that a team allow on a                                verage less than 21 points a game that is a 3+ point dog in a game where the Total is 45.5 or lower and 45% or less of the public has bet that team wins ATS 56.9% the last 6 years. You'll see in the Chalk/Over that these specific numbers are not arbitrary.




                                Chalk/Over: It's the exact inverse of the Dog/Under. Teams that average 21+ points a game and are 3 point favorites or better (-3 to -17) when the game total is 46 or greater and 55% or more of the public is on them are 57.8% ATS in the last 6 years.



                                The Take-away: This plays into your previous thoughts about matrices and my thoughts at least about taking points in low-scoring games. This doesn't give a percentage chance to win parlays or anything, just shows how you can almost infer an ATS winner from the closing line of the total in a lot of situations because it's implying who will control the game.
                                  Comment
                                  • arpeggiomeister
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-23-08
                                    • 1015
                                    #79
                                    Originally posted by husky
                                    I looked at the matrix closer. It does not work. If the under/bills hit for $10.58, you lose the pats/under parlay (-$4) and you lose the over 51 (-$10). You lose $14 and win $10.58. Shoot...I thought we found something!!!
                                    Yes I did too, unfortunatley I did not have enough time to crunch the numbers properly before I left for work. Yes this is a guaranteed loss. Back to the drawing board.

                                    When you think this way you will end up hitting the wall most of the time, but every once in a while you find something that works. You would have to drop one of the legs to make it profitable which opens a 25% chance of losing. I see how I made my mistake, somehow I was thinking the $10.58 plus my original 4 back. That was just hasty math on my part. It is still worth toying with but sealing this thing up 100% doesn't appear like it will happen. Bummer.
                                      Comment
                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-23-08
                                        • 1015
                                        #80
                                        Originally posted by arpeggiomeister
                                        That is a good thought. I will have to play around with it and see what the numbers come out like. Backtesting is so tedious and I need to stay focused on this season. I may paper trade this idea on this thread if you don't mind.

                                        You could take 2 units on the over, say $100 to win $91. Then you could hedge the under with $40 to win $105.56 and cover both sides; Broncos/u and Ravens/u. The profit is small, but who cares if you can repeat this multiple times. You win $11 if it goes over and $5.56 if it goes under. I better double check my numbers on this, but if this right the potential is ridiculous.

                                        The first thing I have to check is to see if my math is correct. Books do not leave openings like this so the first thing that comes to mind is that I have made some kind of mistake.

                                        If this works it is F-ing huge. Should I call it the Speed Racer parlay?

                                        Great line of thinking, even if it does turn out to be a dead end. I will look deeper into this.

                                        The first thing I have to check is to see if my math is correct. Books do not leave openings like this so the first thing that comes to mind is that I have made some kind of mistake.

                                        This turned out to be a dead end, but it was worth looking into.
                                          Comment
                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-23-08
                                            • 1015
                                            #81
                                            Originally posted by MobFade
                                            Finding something like this is going to require going deeper than just trying to arb at a single book. Below I posted graphs for the "Dog/Under" and "Chalk/Over" correlations. The public bet percentages can be found each week here if you Google "the spread public bets" and click the first result. This stat is key to me because it will discount situations for instance where you have a CONSENSUS public dog (i.e. BAL, CIN, ARI, GB, or TEN this week). Not that those aren't profitable spots, but they are spots the public has identified value, perhaps for reasons like a key injury, coaching change, weather, filtering out one statistical-outlier game like a blowout, two good teams playing each other, etc. It is WAYYY too intensive to try and go back to look at each situation individually and you would shrink your sample size to an inconclusive amount, so taking the betting consensus should screen out one-off situations like these that change an entire team's game outlook though the stats might say otherwise.

                                            Dog/Under: Parameters mean that a team a                                            veraging less than 21 points a game that is a 3+ point dog in a game where the Total is 45.5 or lower and 45% or less of the public has bet that team wins ATS 56.9% the last 6 years. You'll see in the Chalk/Over that these specific numbers are not arbitrary.




                                            Chalk/Over: It's the exact inverse of the Dog/Under. Teams that average 21+ points a game and are 3 point favorites or better (-3 to -17) when the game total is 46 or greater and 55% or more of the public is on them are 57.8% ATS in the last 6 years.



                                            The Take-away: This plays into your previous thoughts about matrices and my thoughts at least about taking points in low-scoring games. This doesn't give a percentage chance to win parlays or anything, just shows how you can almost infer an ATS winner from the closing line of the total in a lot of situations because it's implying who will control the game.
                                            This is good stuff. Thanks brother.
                                              Comment
                                              • MobFade
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 10-13-12
                                                • 677
                                                #82
                                                Originally posted by arpeggiomeister
                                                This is good stuff. Thanks brother.
                                                ***Key correction to what I said about Dog/Under*** It is actually teams ALLOWING less than 21 points a game that I used to get that chart, not that SCORE less than 21 points a game which makes more sense. Better defense not worse offense controlling the game.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • arpeggiomeister
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-23-08
                                                    • 1015
                                                    #83
                                                    I am doing something really sick. I do not recommend anyone tail me on this. I just won $60 and I am risking the crap out of $55 of it for the possibility to win over $1,800. This is an extreme longshot but since I am playing with house money I feel it is worth it.

                                                    I created an 11 team parlay. I have seven positions that are locked in. When I say lock, I do not mean the dreaded "lock" that everyone knows is bullshit. I mean locked as in I am commited to those positions, win or lose. They are NE moneyline, TB -3, KC -4, SEA -3, DET -4, IND moneyline, and DAL -3. If any of these positions lose I lose the entire parlay matrix. The position that gives me the most jitters would be DET, but I had to commit or cut the position to keep things to only 4 variables.

                                                    I picked 4 teams that I feel the favorites should win but could go either way. That is NO vs ATL (NO -3), CIN vs CHI (CHI -3), ARI vs STL (STL-4.5), and GB vs SF (SF -4.5)

                                                    I created a matrix with these 4 variables. (F stands for favorite, U for underdog):

                                                    F U F F F U F F F U U
                                                    F F U F F U U F U F F
                                                    F F F U F F U U F U F
                                                    F F F F U F F U U F U

                                                    These are not all the possible combinations, but I am hanging onto $5 profit and risking the crap out of the rest. Here are how the parlays came out:

                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:35 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148898515] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -160
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 1884.90
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:38 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148898959] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [457] ATLANTA +3EV
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -3-105
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 ro win 2472.07
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:41 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148899373] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [463] CINCINNATI +3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2169.33
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:44 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148899770] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -3-105
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [473] ARIZONA +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2265.65
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:45 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148900103] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -3-105
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [475] GREEN BAY +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2265.65
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:48 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148900629] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [457] ATLANTA +3EV
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [463] CINCINNATI +3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2367.00
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:49 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148900853] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [463] CINCINNATI +3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [473] ARIZONA +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2169.33
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:51 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148901366] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -3-105
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [473] ARIZONA +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [475] GREEN BAY +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2265.65
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:53 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148901802] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [458] NEW ORLEANS -3-120
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [463] CINCINNATI +3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [475] GREEN BAY +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2169.33
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    03:58 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148903211] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [457] ATLANTA +3EV
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -3-105
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [473] ARIZONA +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [476] SAN FRANCISCO -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2472.07
                                                    ONLINE
                                                    09/07/2013
                                                    04:00 PM
                                                    [Ticket #: 148903925] PARLAY (11 TEAMS)
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [453] NEW ENGLAND -430
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [457] ATLANTA +3EV
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TAMPA BAY -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [461] KANSAS CITY -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [464] CHICAGO -3-105
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [467] SEATTLE -3-115
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [470] DETROIT -4-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 10:00 AM NFL [472] INDIANAPOLIS -538
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [474] ST. LOUIS -4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 01:25 PM NFL [475] GREEN BAY +4½-110
                                                    09/08/2013 @ 05:30 PM NFL [478] DALLAS -3-115
                                                    		5.00 to win 2472.07

                                                    To actually win this would be amazing. The odds are really steep against me, but every once in a while it is good to take a shot. I have justified taking such a shot because I won another bet and thus this will not hurt my bankroll. We will see what happens. Good luck to everyone tomorrow.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • wolvesguy89
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 01-29-12
                                                        • 160
                                                        #84
                                                        So you're betting $5 each on 11 different parlays correct?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-23-08
                                                            • 1015
                                                            #85
                                                            Originally posted by wolvesguy89
                                                            So you're betting $5 each on 11 different parlays correct?
                                                            Yes, it's a huge longshot but I have made longshots before. I will not cry if I lose, but I will do a little dance if I nail this.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • wolvesguy89
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 01-29-12
                                                                • 160
                                                                #86
                                                                If any one of these hits it's over $1,800 total profit. Good luck!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • biggerleaffan
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 10-21-10
                                                                    • 465
                                                                    #87
                                                                    arp.
                                                                    I've been trying to play the single book arbitrage game for a couple years now. Haven't been able to crack it. 99% sure it's impossible.
                                                                    Still trying....but looking bleak.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • biggerleaffan
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 10-21-10
                                                                        • 465
                                                                        #88
                                                                        I've been reading on step ladder scalping recently...I suggest you google it if you don't know what it is. I will look at the odds when I wake up in the morning
                                                                          Comment
                                                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                            • 05-23-08
                                                                            • 1015
                                                                            #89
                                                                            Apart from my $5 parlay madness, I was inspired by the angles Mobfade posted. I spent all day backtesting different things on the 2012 season.

                                                                            I looked at Home Dogs +6 or greater. I found 18. They went 12-7 for an impressive 63%. I think this is something I will weigh into future games although I could not pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week. I took the Pats moneyline. Perhaps this is just a discipline problem on my part, but I will be watching this with great interest.

                                                                            Looking deeper into the losses I realized that using the Pendulum Cycle Theory I would have been able to avoid 3 out of the 7, or even bet the other way. For example, ARI was a +7.5 home dog in week 16. The week before they had won by 34 ATS. This win signals a strong fade against the Cardinals despite being a home dog.

                                                                            I of course had to scope out the wins and see if the Pendulum Cycle Theory would reverse any of them. It is not fair to weed out the losers and then ignore if any winners would be eliminated by the same theory, but thankfully this did not occur. Using this theory in combination with the home dogs +6 I was abe to turn 12-7 into 15-4.

                                                                            The next thing I did was use my theory for straight bets ATS. I would take contrarian action to any team that was 22 or more points away from the spread. I went 2 levels deep to get a correction. I went 58-47-2 for 54%. If you bet 5% as one unit then I got a 28% gain.

                                                                            I know chase systems are controversial but I put these results through a chase system and the numbers increased. I divided the bankroll into 10 equal parts and then 1/3 for the first leg, and 2/3rds for the second. If the second leg lost you abandon the chase. This results in a 10% loss of your bankroll. I also compounded after each week. My results were an 81% gain for the season. The reason this is working is not a fluke. These cycles will always bring teams back to a range that is close to the spread (within 10 points above or below). Some cycles take longer then others but the vast majority will snap back within 1 to 2 games.

                                                                            I tried my 10 point teaser matrix results on strictly these games and the results were dismal. This totally surprised me because I thought they would be stronger, but 2 teams losing inside one matrix is a total loss of the money risked and I had several weeks where this occured.

                                                                            When I filtered out my top 3 choices for the week the numbers got a whole lot better. It is perhaps poor money management on my part, but I bet half the bankroll each week on my top three. When I took any elite team coming off the bye, then any elite team losing ATS, and then these major ats blowouts the picture got really rosy. I went 12-4 for 75%. I got 366% ROI by doing this.

                                                                            The last thing I did was a 2 team chase. This produced the best results because there was no 2 game losing streak. This produced a 1,594% ROI. Paper trading is all fun and games but you would have to have a death wish to do this for real. A 2 game losing streak would wipe out your entire bankroll. I could run the numbers again setting up for a 3 tier chase or dividing my bankroll into different sections as I did with the 10% two tier chase above. These would reduce the ROI but would be better money management.

                                                                            If I were to combine the straight bet +6 home dogs with my best 10 point teasers then I would have roughly a 50% gain with low risk to my bank roll. This is the most prudent route to take. I am looking for a home run so I am taking more risks, but I am mindful of what I am doing. Perhaps I need to get my ass handed to me and then I will wise up and take this route.

                                                                            I am the only one I know of that objectively look at all of these angles and honestly weigh the risks vs. the rewards. You either get people who swear by chase systems or swear they don't work. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
                                                                              Comment
                                                                              • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                • 05-23-08
                                                                                • 1015
                                                                                #90
                                                                                Originally posted by biggerleaffan
                                                                                arp.
                                                                                I've been trying to play the single book arbitrage game for a couple years now. Haven't been able to crack it. 99% sure it's impossible.
                                                                                Still trying....but looking bleak.
                                                                                I agree brother. It looked cool at first but a simple arithmetic error bit me in the ass hard. I still think there is potential in cornering 75% of the outcome and using handicapping to close the gap on the last 25%.

                                                                                I am really intrigued by the home dog idea Mobfade put out. If there are enough ideas like that then you can just grind out a winning percentage and make a profit with low risk.
                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                  • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                    • 05-23-08
                                                                                    • 1015
                                                                                    #91
                                                                                    If I take the 58-47-2 and combine it with the modified home dog +6 where I went 15-4 I start to get impressive numbers. I could throw the 12-4 teasers on top of that as well. This is a much lower risk approach then anything else I have proposed and once all are combined I am getting returns well above 100% ROI.
                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                        • 05-23-08
                                                                                        • 1015
                                                                                        #92
                                                                                        Originally posted by biggerleaffan
                                                                                        I've been reading on step ladder scalping recently...I suggest you google it if you don't know what it is. I will look at the odds when I wake up in the morning
                                                                                        I have not heard of it, but I welcome the idea. The entire purpose of this thread is to get people thinking about and sharing ideas on how to play this game. If you would take the time to explain it to the people here that would be awesome. Thank you for your input and best of luck.
                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                          • husky
                                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                                            • 08-14-13
                                                                                            • 261
                                                                                            #93
                                                                                            I am not understanding the modified home dogs +6 parameters?

                                                                                            Also, the 58-47 record is fading 22+ points ats loss the previous week? And you did this in a 2-game chase? Sorry for all the questions.
                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                              • biggerleaffan
                                                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                                                • 10-21-10
                                                                                                • 465
                                                                                                #94
                                                                                                a quick rundown of step ladder scalping:
                                                                                                You need 2 teams that are favored by 6-6.5 and stsrting at differeng times. Tease both the favourites by 6 points for even money (+100).
                                                                                                You usually need both dogs to be at least +250 on the ML. Put an appropriate amount on the first dog before that game. If the dog wins, you profit. If the favourite wins, you would now make a second ML bet the 2nd dog that would produce a win greater than all your bets combined.

                                                                                                I will soon post an example from a couple years ago to prove it.

                                                                                                EDIT: here it is: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...der-scalp.html
                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                  • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                    • 05-23-08
                                                                                                    • 1015
                                                                                                    #95
                                                                                                    No problem. The modified +6 point home dog:

                                                                                                    I look for a home dog that is +6 or more. I take this side unless there is a compelling reason from any team not to. That compelling reason would be the home dog losing by 22 ATS or more, or the opponent winning by 22 ATS or more in the previous game. When this happens fade the dog.

                                                                                                    The 58-47-2 record is fading on either side. If a team wins ATS by 22, I fade them. If they lose by 22 ATS I bet them. If they fail to cover the first time I ride them for a second week with a chase. If they still fail I abandon the chase. The chase is only 2 tiers and you never risk more then 10% of your bank roll for the entire chase.
                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                        • 05-23-08
                                                                                                        • 1015
                                                                                                        #96
                                                                                                        Something fishy going on at BETdsi. I am unable to place 10 point teasers. I must find out if it is just me or if others can and they are yanking my chain. I have a friend who is opening an account with them so I should find out soon.
                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                            • 05-23-08
                                                                                                            • 1015
                                                                                                            #97
                                                                                                            I can not reply with a quote anymore. I just cleaned off my computer and it is already acting up again. aarrffff

                                                                                                            I'll try and trick the computer with copy and paste.

                                                                                                            a quick rundown of step ladder scalping:
                                                                                                            You need 2 teams that are favored by 6-6.5 and stsrting at differeng times. Tease both the favourites by 6 points for even money (+100).
                                                                                                            You usually need both dogs to be at least +250 on the ML. Put an appropriate amount on the first dog before that game. If the dog wins, you profit. If the favourite wins, you would now make a second ML bet the 2nd dog that would produce a win greater than all your bets combined.

                                                                                                            I will soon post an example from a couple years ago to prove it.

                                                                                                            EDIT: here it is: Stepladder scalp...

                                                                                                            I couldn't find one for today, but I will keep looking and try and post one this season. Thanks for sharing this with us.
                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                              • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                • 05-23-08
                                                                                                                • 1015
                                                                                                                #98
                                                                                                                I what was supposed to be a 10 point teaser for today but BETdsi is supposably having technical issues so I had to settle for an 8 point teaser. I will find out if they are full of shit, but for now here is my 8 point teaser for one unit. (5% of bank roll)

                                                                                                                KC +4.5
                                                                                                                SEA +5
                                                                                                                SEA over 36.5
                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                  • husky
                                                                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                    • 08-14-13
                                                                                                                    • 261
                                                                                                                    #99
                                                                                                                    Thanks arp. I love the idea of the Home Dog, playing a 2-game chase, and playing the top teaser each week only. I think you can have great results being conservative in terms of the amount of plays each week. However, the 6+ home dogs are not profitable according to sports database
                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                      • husky
                                                                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                        • 08-14-13
                                                                                                                        • 261
                                                                                                                        #100
                                                                                                                        Interesting. Very small return, but its a guaranteed return! Wonder if this could work in CFB too.

                                                                                                                        Originally posted by biggerleaffan
                                                                                                                        a quick rundown of step ladder scalping:
                                                                                                                        You need 2 teams that are favored by 6-6.5 and stsrting at differeng times. Tease both the favourites by 6 points for even money (+100).
                                                                                                                        You usually need both dogs to be at least +250 on the ML. Put an appropriate amount on the first dog before that game. If the dog wins, you profit. If the favourite wins, you would now make a second ML bet the 2nd dog that would produce a win greater than all your bets combined.

                                                                                                                        I will soon post an example from a couple years ago to prove it.

                                                                                                                        EDIT: here it is: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...der-scalp.html
                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                            • 05-23-08
                                                                                                                            • 1015
                                                                                                                            #101
                                                                                                                            Originally posted by husky
                                                                                                                            Thanks arp. I love the idea of the Home Dog, playing a 2-game chase, and playing the top teaser each week only. I think you can have great results being conservative in terms of the amount of plays each week. However, the 6+ home dogs are not profitable according to sports database
                                                                                                                            Really? WHat kind of numbers did you get?
                                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                                              • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                • 05-23-08
                                                                                                                                • 1015
                                                                                                                                #102
                                                                                                                                Should have grabbed the under on the Seahawks. I did not see this game going under 36 points. I am only able to watch gamecast on this game so I am not sure if Carolina is doing a good job on defense or the Seahawks are doing bad on offense. My first real play of the year misses on the over. SEA covers, and KC covers by a mile.

                                                                                                                                Almost wrapped up by my teaser loses. Patriots are scaring me. Thought sure they would win this game for certain but BUF is hanging strong. TB also scary. They have the ball, can they cover in the last few minutes. If not then Week 1 will be a complete drought. Nail biting time.
                                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                                  • playr101
                                                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                    • 01-16-10
                                                                                                                                    • 2029
                                                                                                                                    #103
                                                                                                                                    Damn TB.... almost man...

                                                                                                                                    -playr101
                                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                                      • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                        • 05-23-08
                                                                                                                                        • 1015
                                                                                                                                        #104
                                                                                                                                        Rough week one. There is more football to go but I decided the best thing to do is to sit it out and regroup for week 2. Hope you guys fared better than I did today.

                                                                                                                                        I will come out with some analysis for next week. The Chiefs beat the spread by 22.5. This sets up a possible fade on them and I may look to take the Jaguars next week as well. These would be inside a 10 point teaser. I am also considering straight bets. I am going to backtest this theory on 2011 to see if the 54% holds up. If it does I will go for it. I must look at all the games but these two stand out as teams to look at for next week.
                                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                                          • arpeggiomeister
                                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                            • 05-23-08
                                                                                                                                            • 1015
                                                                                                                                            #105
                                                                                                                                            Looking through the info I have so far there are some fades that are showing up.

                                                                                                                                            KC beat the spread by 22. They face the Cowboys who are looking very good defensively. Normally this would be a strong fade but I feel KC was grossly undervalued going into week 1. Based on their score I should fade them, but based on the fact they were terrible last year, that image is still lasting in people's minds and should be taken into consideration. It is the psychology that I feel is important.

                                                                                                                                            The Titans beat the spread by 14 and face the Texans. I need to see how the Texans do but this should be a good fade.

                                                                                                                                            PIT loses 14 ATS to a cellar dwelling team at home. They were overvalued going into this game. They have slipped in my power rankings to the bottom 3rd. I think they are in real trouble this year. This should be a good fade against the Bengals next week. We will have to see what the spread is. But this is a top contender.

                                                                                                                                            ATL is an elite team and loss to the spread. They face STL at home. If the spread looks good I will take them.

                                                                                                                                            The Jets impressed me as being much better then the bottom 5 of the power rankings list. New England looked vulnerable. The offense that normally has multiple weapons has become a bit one dimensional. I will probably avoid this game next week. I would warn anyone against thinking this will be an automatic win for them. Turnovers were a problem today. They have a lot to iron out.

                                                                                                                                            I think the Broncos will smoke the Giants. That is just my gut speaking. I expect the spreads to start rising on the Broncos. I got them for -9 and they beat that number by 13 points. If the G-men turn the ball over as many times as they did with the Cowboys then they are toast.

                                                                                                                                            My take on week one is that the underdogs deserve a lot more respect then they are getting. There has been a major shift in power in the NFL. Only the Browns and Jaguars performed as expected. The Raiders, Titans, Jets, and ARI all outperformed my expectations. Even though CAR lost ATS I was still surprised that they were able to hang with SEA in a defensive struggle. I was not expecting that kind of game at all. I thought it would be an offensive showdown. It makes me wonder how PHI will do tomorrow. I am out for this week. I will prepare for next Sunday.
                                                                                                                                              Comment
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