EP36's March to Madness

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 12:59 PM

3.4.12

2nd Half: Clemson-Florida State Over 69 (-110)

Kurtz · 03-04-12, 02:09 PM

Way to come out this morning and get this thing turned around Eagle. Great work!

dymd3z · 03-04-12, 02:20 PM

close one there but we cash it

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 04:28 PM

Overall Record: 307-253-4 [+33.57]
2nd Halves: 212-151-2 [+47.00]
Summit Conference Tournament: 1-1 [-0.10]

[2nd Half] Arizona-Arizona State Over 68.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 04:46 PM

Summit Conference Tournament Pick #3

North Dakota State-W.Illinois Over 118 [-110]
Combined these two teams average around 129 possessions per game. In their two regular season meetings, the first meeting saw 131 possessions and the game finished under with poor shooting. The second meeting had 122 possessions, but went well over due to both teams shooting above 50%. Both teams have shot well down the stretch, both hitting over 47% from the floor in their last five. ND State has given up at least 70 in nine of their last ten, so even with W.Illinois not being a high scoring club - they should put points up like they did in their last meeting [77-64 WIU win]. Given North Dakota's struggles on defense lately, this looks like it could be closer to a repeat of their most recent meeting more than the 1st that happened right at the beginning of the season.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 05:09 PM

[2nd Half] Ohio State-Michigan State Over 69 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 06:16 PM

Good roll today so far. Let's hit 'em hard in the night session.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 06:26 PM

[2nd Half] California-Stanford Over 71 [-110]

crblahblah · 03-04-12, 06:32 PM

Good luck, EP. Tailed you on Cal-Stan o71.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 06:55 PM

[2nd Half] Qunnipiac-LIU Brooklyn Over 82 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 07:59 PM

Damn LIU Brooklyn couldn't get me some bullshit points like the other day when they screwed the under eh?

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 08:03 PM

[2nd Half] North Texas-Lafayette Over 70 [-110]

zacharyj53 · 03-04-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

[2nd Half] North Texas-Lafayette Over 70 [-110]

Any reasoning on this one?

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 08:13 PM

Same as always, based on possessions. 75 1st half possessions. Estimated 2nd half should be around 80. Set at 70, large disparity, so usually go for the over in those cases.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 08:54 PM

Summit Conference Tournament Play #4
Southern Utah-Oakland Under 142 [-110]Southern Utah has been an UNDERs team all season. 16 of their 24 games with posted totals have hit UNDER. That includes both meetings with Oakland. Oakland loves to play fast, so it's on Southern Utah to establish and maintain pace. The tournament has been all unders so far, so we'll see if that trend continues.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 09:00 PM

Only 3 pts in the last 1:30 in this UNT game. Only needed six to push. Ends at 68. That sucked.

southpaw74 · 03-04-12, 09:03 PM

Add north Texas to my shit list. I lose 1h by 1 point because they miss a free throw. Now they make a lucky 3 to cancel overtime to screw me again.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 09:06 PM

Shouldn't have come down to that at the end. Only needed 12 points in the last 4:00. Unfortunately both teams were barely in the bonus, so FTs weren't around to help. Still, 12 in four minutes is easy pickings almost any game.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 10:15 PM

Figures I'm getting the Overs game when I play Under. Summit League kickin my butt so far through the quarterfinals.

southpaw74 · 03-04-12, 10:28 PM

Oakland was going fine and then they scored 13 points in one minute. They can really rack up the points.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 10:39 PM

[2nd Half] South Alabama-Denver Under 67.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 11:17 PM

Strong start. Shit end to the day. Under just got ruined in 1 minute when they scored 10 points. Unreal.

mikea33 · 03-04-12, 11:38 PM

Lets see which way we can get boned in this South Alabama Denver game

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-12, 11:41 PM

Finally a drought works our way. That's a good finish. Really gotta get my Summit League shit together tomorrow. Good day for the 2nd halves at least.

mikea33 · 03-04-12, 11:45 PM

Thanks EP! Lets end this march madness off with a bang!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-12, 07:09 AM

Ready for the power conference tournaments this week. Just hoping to end with positive units for those. Starting in a hole with the Summit League right now. Been over thinking those because I have liked almost every team + the points, but they have covered 3/4. Down to the semifinals, making my goal to try and hit 2/3 picks for the semis and final.

Overall Record: 311-257-4 [+33.17]
2nd Halves: 216-153-2 [+48.80]
Summit Conference Tournament: 1-3 [-2.30]

mikea33 · 03-05-12, 02:41 PM

lets get em today! Will you be around for 2Hs???

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-12, 04:24 PM

Yeah. The 1st batch from the 7pm ET starts are always tough because it's the end of my work shift right about when half time hits. I try to get one in before I get on the road, but depending on how the 1st halves drag - sometimes I can't work one in, especially if they don't fit the criteria. Will be around for the night though, so should have some for the later games depending on where they fall. Off to finish up my Summit League research to try to get some damn winners there tonight.

mikea33 · 03-05-12, 04:46 PM

Where was the page with the formula again?? Was it on the NBA thread

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-12, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

FYI for anyone who cares: For the 2nd half bets, I do look over a points per possession formula. It's basically FGAs - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + FTAs(*0.45). Then add in an estimated additional five possessions for the 2nd half due to fouling, etc. That lets you estimate the number of possessions for the 1st half. From there, I look at how many points were scored per possession, game flow, three point attempts and fouls and then look at the line for the second half. In the end, it's still good luck or bad luck, but this formula has helped me the past couple of years to weed out the better 2nd half plays.

Here ya go.

mikea33 · 03-05-12, 05:39 PM

I know it didnt convert well to the NBA.....but do you think it can atleast be helpful in a spreadsheet to give a good sense of statistical outlook to NBA 2H plays???

dymd3z · 03-05-12, 05:47 PM

mikea, it's hit and miss within the NBA. I run it on both NBA & CBB. CBB seems to hit a bit more than NBA.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-12, 05:50 PM

There was some other guy who had like an actual web page with a formula dedicated to the NBA where you just input the stats at half time and it gives you the estimated play. If you can find my old [failed] NBA 2nd halves thread, I think it is somewhere in there. Seemed like NBA had more variables than college as far as tempo/lack of fouling/etc.

mikea33 · 03-05-12, 06:25 PM

Content Unavailable

http://www.nba.com/celtics/stats/inside-the-numbers/points-per-possession-pop-up.html

There it is

Thanks doood.
I just read the whole thread. I think it actually translated a lot better than you might have thought at the time. Many games had lost by scoring droughts at the end, most losses were by a point or 2. That means that the formula was very close. I noticed u played about 3 or 4 games a night, and also that was the begining of a season after the lockout and teams havent been together, no basketball shape, etc. etc.
You were 9-2 at one point, and really only lost a couple units on the effort. I think it may be worth another shot through the latter half and playoff run of the season. I may start a thread using that, PPP and a couple other formulas to try and accumulate a record from here on out.
Ill let you know.

Thanks dooooooood

mikea33 · 03-05-12, 06:26 PM

Because in the begining months of the season the under was hitting at over 65% or so until the books caught on, so I am sure it was not just you EP.