EP36's March to Madness

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 07:36 PM

So much for that under. 25 points in the first 5:30. Wow.

dymd3z · 03-06-12, 07:45 PM

dymd3z · 03-06-12, 07:45 PM

need them to slow the pace down.. damnit

dymd3z · 03-06-12, 08:19 PM

push?

dymd3z · 03-06-12, 08:20 PM

sure did... better than a big fat L

southpaw74 · 03-06-12, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by dymd3z

sure did... better than a big fat L

It was a winner. Did you really only get 70? I got it at 70.5 so won by the hook. I thought that was as low as it got?

dymd3z · 03-06-12, 08:29 PM

hell ya... Just noticed you guys got it at 70.5/71... lucky guys! Nice for you all...

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 08:30 PM

Damn that was one rollercoaster of a half. Ton of points early and late with nothing in between.

That will make up for this disaster of a pick for Providence.

dymd3z · 03-06-12, 08:33 PM

INTERNET/-1

3/6/2012 4:19:38 PM

Ticket
STRAIGHT BET

CBB

[2596] TOTAL u70-110 (2H SO CAROLINA ST vrs 2H BETHUNE COOKMAN)

35/35

Push

110/100

0

Originally posted by southpaw74

It was a winner. Did you really only get 70? I got it at 70.5 so won by the hook. I thought that was as low as it got?

southpaw74 · 03-06-12, 08:35 PM

Wow...that's rough. Are you at Bodog? I thought I got the bad number at 70.5. I use bet islands and 5dimes

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 08:43 PM

Time to break even for the day on Big East picks.

Big East Conference Tournament Play #4
Villanova-Rutgers Over 138 [-110]
'Nova has been an OVERs team all season, hitting in 20 of 27 posted games. In Big East play, they have hit OVERs in 15 of 18 while Rutgers has finished OVERs in 10 of 18. Both teams have seen OVERs in seven of their last ten overall. Rutgers defense has been especially giving lately, allowing 47% shooting in their last five. The meeting that took place between these two last week ended with 148 points. The game featured 56 FTs and that would bode well again tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 10:04 PM

[2nd Half] Detroit-Valpo Over 71 [-110]
Gut play more than formula.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 10:10 PM

Summit League tourney cannot end fast enough, my picks were terrible. Think I noted mostly along the way that dogs were covering many of the spreads - so I lay the chalk.

Of course it is a team that has covered 80 some odd percent of their games ... of course until tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 11:00 PM

[2nd Half] E.Washington-Montana Over 72.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 11:32 PM

I gotta cut down on the tourney plays. Feel like I went through the motions after the first Big East ones just to make plays. Should only play the ones I like and pass on others. Amazing that discipline is still an issue after most of a season, eh?

southpaw74 · 03-06-12, 11:42 PM

Felt like every 2h went under. Even south Dakota stayed well under with overtime.

chinoloco212 · 03-07-12, 12:00 AM

LOL good hit on the over, eastern washington just wanted it to hit so bad! hahaha

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 12:03 AM

2nd halves went well. Other plays were mostly crap.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 06:28 AM

Overall Record: 317-264-5 [+31.17]
2nd Halves: 221-155-2 [+51.50]

4-1 on the 2nd halves, 1-4 on the other stuff. Think I have decided I am just going to play a set # of plays from the conference tourneys and not specialize in one tourney or the other. Max of 3 plays on full games, the rest will be 2nd halves. Should be around most of the day for those ... I do have a gap between 12pm ET and 2:30pm ET where I get my 2nd shift nap in that I won't be online, but otherwise ready to grind.

Owls · 03-07-12, 07:54 AM

I'm impressed with your handicapping. What do you think is the most important factor to look at when looking at 2H totals? Thanks for the picks!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 09:49 AM

One thing for sure that I look at is the foul situation and then also look at the season stats to see how many fouls the teams normally commit. Fouling is a pretty key component in 2nd half plays. FTs can help an over like nothing else or totally screw an under. Obviously you can't predict necessarily if there will be more or less fouls in a half, but you can certainly look at how the whistles went in the 1st half and the teams normal pattern for fouling.

You can tell in a lot of games if it's a jump shooting contest where you're not going to get much foul help - Ivy League games are a prime example of this since most of them are heavy jump shooting teams. Those are usually good for unders.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 11:41 AM

3.7.12

1pm ET
Rice -1 [-110]
Rice is up against East Carolina in the opening round of the C-USA tournament. ECU whipped Rice at home in the regular season, shutting down Rice's best player - Arsalan Kazemi. Rice needs Kazemi to have a chance to advance. He averages a double-double and needs to lead the way today. The stats yield about what the line does here, an even match-up with ECU shooting 42%, Rice 43%. The Owls have an edge defensively, holding opponents to 42% on the season. The Pirates also struggling on the road, allowing 46% shooting - two points above their regular season numbers. Rice held opponents to 41% on the road and generally played better and tougher away from home. Rice needs to start by winning the battle on the boards. They got dominated 38-26 by ECU who is not a strong rebounding team. Rice has a 7 footer in their midst who plays big minutes in Oraby. He needs to be a difference maker on the boards against a smaller ECU squad. Look at the box score, if Oraby & Kazemi have big days ... Rice wins.

TheeArchBishop · 03-07-12, 11:47 AM

Was already on this...Rice actually just moved to -1.5 within the last few minutes.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 02:42 PM

2nd Half: Alabama A&M-TSU Over 68 (-110)

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 02:53 PM

Well Rice choked proper. Up 62-56 and got outscored 12-2.

BluexBlue · 03-07-12, 03:48 PM

Nice one! Thanks.

blackeyeshamus · 03-07-12, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

2nd Half: Alabama A&M-TSU Over 68 (-110)

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 04:07 PM

Okay, Oregon State overs magic. Again, more of a play from watching over the season and how many times the Beavers have tons of points in the 2nd half no matter what the numbers yield.

[2nd Half] Oregon State-Washington State Over 77 [-110]

jimmy007oc · 03-07-12, 04:25 PM

Hi EP!!! Seems like you have a good season so far

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 04:28 PM

[2nd Half] SMU-Marshall Over 65.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 04:29 PM

Guaranteed the SMU-Marshall one will be ugly if it passes through, but they're shorting the 2nd half on possessions by about five with that total ... so, strap in for ugly.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 04:49 PM

If this Oregon State game finds an over, it should be a blind bet for any more games they might play ... but it looks like it's not going to be close today. Shooting has cooled off a lot. Expected some of that, but it's pretty dismal.

tcarn01 · 03-07-12, 04:53 PM

stranger things have happened.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 05:05 PM

NCAAB Gods owe me an overtime helper instead of a hinderer too.

Don't think it's gonna get there though.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-07-12, 05:05 PM

Not to mention they're going to need 30 points in OT still.