A nice day off is good for everyone every once in a while. 
-
Comment -
Does Fairfield meet the parameters of this system?Comment -
a day off after yesterday is a good thing...Comment -
Yea i decided to take fairfield tonite to.. Try to recoup a little from last night.Comment -
This one is to Dunc and TX... I was wondering if it would be possible if you guys could rank your plays... for example use number 1, 2, 3 etc to rank which picks you are most confident will win. 1 being the most confident.Comment -
DuncHen, would it be possible for you to look at how this system has done on previous Saturdays?
I feel int he past while I've used this scheme to pick games to cap...it always seems to fare much better during the week as opposed to the weekend...
I'd be curious to see what your data shows if it's easy for you to find...if not, I understand.Comment -
Hey they give enough to us for free , now you want more GET LOST
sbrComment -
I did a search of the kineproffesor system and found the post the system originated from. This system did very very well ats and ML. I am not sure how to copy and post on here, nor do I want to get sbr redflagged for posting something from another site. I suggest all to do a search on kineproffesor and it should bring you his post. According to his post, he only played this system for 2 weeks in Feb, not the whole month as most of us probably assumed. Also, for this season, he is saying that the system will be in full effect around the 12th thru 20th.Comment -
Loyola MD +5.5 for me tonight...sometimes it's nice only having to cap 5 games for the night haha...I can work on Saturdays games now once the lines drop.Comment -
It wasn't any problem.
So it's weird this year, though, because 2 saturdays were holidays (xmas and new years) so there weren't many games on those days. Nevertheless, I was able to look at the past 5 saturdays and here is what I found: 29-21 (58%) +5.9 units.
But I think one of your points was to see how this system fares with so many plays in one day, so I looked at all days where there were 9 or more plays. This still yielded 5 days, but more plays (since xmas only had 2 plays and new years had 6). When I looked at this, the record was 42-29 (59%) +10 units.
So yeah, it seems the big card days pull our average down a little bit. Overall, our record is 61% and if you take out the big card days, it goes up to 63% (59-35 on all other days). At least we're still cashing but it may be wise to find a proven filter we can add. And no offense to TXBulldog at all (because he is obviously great at what he does and I still like to see what he is picking), but I'd like to find my own filter so I can do it myself if need be. I like to be as independent as possible.Comment -
I appreciate that you're just looking out for us but we're trying to keep the discourse in this thread civil and we've all done a good job so far.
I believe you were referring to the person who asked if we could have a confidence ranking next to the plays, and I think it's a totally fair question. However, I haven't found anything in this system that would give me confidence for some plays over others. I originally put my plays into "tiers" because I thought I could have different levels of confidence in those plays but it soon proved that they were all equal.
Many people (Axis and TXBulldog, to name two) here have been able to weed out some bad plays so there's obviously a way to get more confidence out of these.Comment -
guys,
Its really very simple and anyone can do this. Here is my strategy for now (nothing is guaranteed)
Feel free to follow suit if you feel comfortable:
Tomorrow will be overwhelming to say the least, so I have no choice I will play games in time blocks (i.e. 9am qualifying plays, then 10am games, etc.)
1) write down all of the opening lines and teams (preferrably night b4; thegreek.com have overnights)
2) get remaining game lines (if any) as early as possible on game day
3) Compare opening lines to kempom lines, I find 2 point or greater difference, write game down (1st filter)
4) Watch line movements up to 2.30/3pm for me. I cannot sit for the whole day for all the games, this is my personal cutoff time. Its been working well I'm not gonna tinker with the times.
5) Any negative movement (lines moving against kenpom) I do not play (2nd filter)
Any positive movement (books moving with kenpom) I play for 1.5 units.
Any lines with no or minimal movement (i.e. -2 is now -2 -105) I play for 1 unit.
6) Any games I do not like (for example, CSUN was a play yesterday but couldnt believe they were 6 point favs against a better team with a better record.) I pass. I have some knowledge of CBB teams but by no means anywhere close to an expert.
7) Any game I am unsure about, I go to goldsheet to get a quick capsule on the game. Its not super-acurate but gives a nice breakdown for each game, I really enjoy reading them.
And again, I understand line movement forces me to lose 1/2 to 1 point sometimes, (fcuk you, ELON) but for me its worth it for now because those plays are hitting at a higher clip for our limited sample.
I will post all my plays tomorrow, throughout the day.
So far my two-day run based on these filters:
TOTAL: 11-2 84.6% (please dont get too excited by end of season will be lucky at 55-60%)
(8-1) 88.8% lines that didnt move either way (until 3pm pacific, regardless of when game went off) (3-1) 75.0% lines that moved with kenpom and the 2pt factor (again, fcuk you ELON)
TOTAL UNITS: +9.20.
Note: I forgot to add san jose state last night +1, that was a qualifying 1unit play. Not cheating or inflating, just honestly forgot. I want to include for an accurate read on such a limited sample. I need all the games I can get.
Thanks to pioneers of this thread and contributors, hopefully we can continue to get better by helping each other...Comment -
of course, saturday I will watch line movements throughout whole day because games start at 9am pacific, starting around 7am. Get the visine ready.Comment -
Not many teams win beyond 5 games in a row ATS...which Fairfield is trying to do. Only one play tonight...2u's.Comment -
I do something similar to you when there are so many games...block betting.
That way I can see how they are doing before betting the others...and not risk losing so much in one day if the capping is off.
I already have some games tomorrow that I like...hoping the line is on my side.
Comment -
Easy man... I was just thinking that, that would improve the already superb quality of this thread. I figured that as these guys make there picks they might an idea of a play that they like better over another one.
GGZola - Thats some excellent advice.Comment -
lets go get em Ax,
here were my plays in 2 days so far:
PITT +2.5 gtown W, +1.0 UNIT
BALL ST -5.5 wmichigan W, +1.0 UNIT
COL.ST +8.5 nmex W, +1.5 UNITS
ST HALL -3 depaul W, +1.5 UNITS
TN-CHATT +1.5 citadel W, +1.0 UNIT
NEB +11 mizzou W, +1.0 UNIT
CLEM -7.5 gtch W, +1.0 UNIT
S.CLARA -7 san diego W, +1.5 UNITS
ELON +6.5 west. carolina L, -1.65 UNITS
UCLA -3.5 oreg st W, +1.0 UNIT
WKTY -4.5 troy L, -1.65 UNITS
DREXEL +2 old dominoes W, +1.0 UNIT
S. JOSE ST +1 laTech W, +1.0 UNIT total +9.2 units.
Thx banman, we are all in this together, trying to help each other unlike other threads. Just keep in mind no system will be even close to these percentages. Main thing is coming out ahead come March.Comment -
thx ufc, soon as I have the plays booked I will post tomorrow, time permitting throughout the day.
Full credit goes to DuncHen, Jerry12345, Axis, Bulldog and many others for their sharing and input, it all starts with the Duncster.
Jay thx 4 the points BTWLast edited by GGZOLA; 01-14-11, 04:49 PM.Comment -
Mine plays using my filters are on my Spreadsheet. My filters have improved my win % a little bit from the nominal...though, one loss wasn't part of either system...more of a hunch. Hitting at roughly a 66% clip.Comment -
axis, at the risk of sounding like a complete moron, I didnt even think of that tool offered here...gonna put them in there from now on is it easy?Comment -
Very...and it keeps track of winning percentage/W-L/Money won...
Here's a link to mine: http://axis.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/Comment -
jax, drexel was an underdog (+2) against old dominion...thus the 3 pt advantageComment -
yes he did only play it for the 2 weeks But I coutinued to play it and track it up until the tourney and it did well then also, I dont have the numbers but I would say around 60 % and the only reason I did is because it was doing so well .If you have the time print it out and type it in here yourself I thought I explained it pretty goodComment -
Hey all no plays today I see. Time to rest up for tomorrow.
Thanks to everyone for sharing how they are filtering some of these plays. I really have been watching the movement because I too noticed that seemed to be a decent easy to do filter.Comment -
Dom i dont know how good you are with computers but could you not print it out take a picture of it and leave out what site it was on so you dont get in trouble and some how put in out , I really dont even know if it is possible but if so then every one could see it for themself i would just make sure there is no mention of the other site.I myself do not know how to do that stuffComment -
last nite I had the Kine system going 3-2-1, I have Elon marked as a push as the closeing line was 7 some people got 7- others got 6- . So far this year the last 2 weeks I have the system going 12-7-2 Aussie correct me if I am wrongComment -
its hard to say but I would have had Elon as a win, it opened at 7.5 and stayed there for a while and I even bought it to 8.. therefore I had the system going 4-2. Also on a personal basis I took Cal riverside before bed thinking that the line would move out to 6 but it didnt, when I saw bulldogs filters and CS Northridge was filtered out of Dunchens picks I stuck with Riverside buying to +6 and they won SU, but its technically not a proper play but I went 5-2 last night
Comment
