Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

[Brp27345]

Well, I made 5 plays...Arkansas State, Stanford, Cincy, Fresno State, and Pepperdine.

If u haven't bet Pepperdine yet I would be careful... I have heard some talk of their best player not starting... and that he is questionable for the game... if you have already be it than good luck though... would have been on it too if I hadn't heard the murmers...

Maybe I will take another look at Ark St and Fresno St. thanks

[Aussiecapper101]

Btw thanks again man... at 7-0 right now using only ur pics to start my capping and choosing max of 4 plays per day... Hit on Army, Drexel, and Purdue last night... BTW... what 4 games would u chose tonight if you had to? opinions from anyone would be appreciated... Right now leaning Stanford, Cinci, Nova... and maybe St. Mary's... anyone have any strong feelings on any of these plays or any of the one's that I didn't mention??? Thanks in advance!

I like Idaho for what its worth

[DuncHen22]

It's your system but the way I normally choose to do it...is only look at games that the books think will be competitive, i.e. I only look at games with a spread of less than 9.5 points...even if KP has the game a bigger difference, the books think it will be competitive...

That's actually a good point... I'll definitely keep my eye on them.

[Brp27345]

Decided finally on Cinci... Nova... Arkansas St... and St. Mary's... let's see how it goes tonight...

[Heandog]

got a few for ya Idaho ,troy,sandiego,jacksonville st,

[Heandog]

got a few for ya Idaho ,troy,sandiego,jacksonville st,

thes are not plays for your system they are from something i was using last year from the KP . Sorry I had not been reading your thread up to this point I went back after i posted these plays and I must say you are Diff on to something Good Luck looks good

[tonycarr]

Well back again today with a congrats on yesterday. Still trying to wrap my head around the system but I like it alot. Ended up taking Stanford today late but line is good so Im in with it.

[Axis]

If u haven't bet Pepperdine yet I would be careful... I have heard some talk of their best player not starting... and that he is questionable for the game... if you have already be it than good luck though... would have been on it too if I hadn't heard the murmers...

Maybe I will take another look at Ark St and Fresno St. thanks

Thanks for the news!

Sadly, I did put in the play because I was traveling today...time to gamble! haha...hopefully the rest will cover and I'll be set...

[DuncHen22]

1/6:

Tier 1:
Arkansas State -2.5 (2.5) LOSS
Wright State -4 (3)WIN
Villanova -7 (2)WIN
[ADDED] Montana State -6 (3) LOSS
[ADDED] Fresno +2 (3)WIN

Tier 2:
UNC-Greensboro +4 (2)PUSH

Tier 3:
Stanford +5 (3)WIN
Idaho +7 (3) [not yet played]

Tier 1 and 2: 3-2 +0.8
Tier 3: 4-2 +1.8 with Idaho still to play... but I'm guaranteed +0.7 on that one...got some nice RLM going on with it though... 63% on Hawaii but it's down to +5.5.

I also believe the 3 10pts or greater plays hit? It looked solid so I think I'll add those in from now on. From now on, as long as the actual line is under 10, it's fair game. I won't add any of these in retroactively but I'll play them from now on and keep an eye on them. Axis made a good point with those. If they start going downhill hard I'll pull them, but I'll give them a few weeks at least.

Once again, great day! Could have been better with Cincy, St Mary, and Pepperdine, but I'm not going to complain about a positive day. No one ever went broke taking a profit.

[DuncHen22]

T1: 45-25 (64%) +17.5 u
T2: 52-29 (64%) +20.1 u
T3: 67-41 (62%) +21.9 u*

*Idaho +7 is still in play

[DuncHen22]

Well back again today with a congrats on yesterday. Still trying to wrap my head around the system but I like it alot. Ended up taking Stanford today late but line is good so Im in with it.

I know it's getting a little confusing but I'll try to explain again. The reason I have 3 different tiers is mainly for tracking purposes. I originally had the hypothesis that KP (kenpom.com) wasn't good at predicting dogs to win, or at least road dogs. So I set up these three different tiers to separate those out.

Tier 1 = only favorites who are projected to beat the spread by 2 points or more
Tier 2 = All tier 1 plays PLUS home underdogs who are projected to beat the spread by 2 points or more
Tier 3 = All tier 1 AND tier 2 plays PLUS away underdogs who are projected to beat the spread by 2 points or more

I also throw out any game where the spread is 10 or greater. Forum member "Axis" gave a great description of these double-digit games as "non-competitive," so it's difficult to pin down an accurate spread.

I also play opening lines because any line movement that pushes a game into a system play may be caused by outside factors. That is pure speculation though and I haven't followed those games.

Hope that helps. Next year I probably won't have a "tier" system, I'll just find the most profitable way to play these under 1 system. But for now since I'm still in tracking mode, I'll keep it.

[moreira]

maybe you could add those 10+ plays under a new tier just for tracking?

[shopbar picks]

Keep it up. I like your tier system. Thanx

[celtics3388]

Loving the picks Duncan. Didn't get the same spread as you with Arkansas St and UNC Greensboro so i skipped those and added St. Mary's for a 5-1 night and possibly 6-1 with Idaho looking like a winner. This is looking like a very solid system, keep em comin!

[peterpan19]

Tier 1 = only favorites who are projected to beat the spread by 2 points or more

Why was Fresno St +2 a play ? Thought only Favs ?

GL

[DuncHen22]

maybe you could add those 10+ plays under a new tier just for tracking?

That's a good idea, I'll consider it!

Tier 1 = only favorites who are projected to beat the spread by 2 points or more

Why was Fresno St +2 a play ? Thought only Favs ?

GL

Favorite according to KP. He had Fresno winning by 1.

[Squareguy]

Very nice day. I got UNC Greensboro at +5 on bodog, so it was a nice bonus.

[Brp27345]

Ended up 4-2 with my local tonight... of course with the system going 9-2 of course I found a way to bet both losers... keep it up man! KenPom is the shiznit... lol

[Brp27345]

Lookin at the lines early... seems like Loyola Maryland -4 (2) and Indiana St. +3 (2) may be the only plays tomorrow... and they are fringe plays at that... may be a no play day...

[LockPickMaster]

Lookin at the lines early... seems like Loyola Maryland -4 (2) and Indiana St. +3 (2) may be the only plays tomorrow... and they are fringe plays at that... may be a no play day...

Just a heads up, the two top scorers for Indiana St. are not playing tonight, been confirmed by their coach.

[tonycarr]

Just a heads up, the two top scorers for Indiana St. are not playing tonight, been confirmed by their coach.

Thanks for the Heads up on that.
Going to start looking at this earlier because alot times by the time I get home from work some of the lines have moved out of range but are still winners with the early lines.

[DuncHen22]

1/7

Tier 1:
Loyola MD -4 (2)

Tier 2:
Indiana State +3 (2)

That's it for today. Unfortunately Loyola has moved to -5 in most places.

[Axis]

The thing about ISU is...they are missing 2 of their top scorers...but the books know this as well...

So you'd think...if they had those 2 players...at home, this game would be about a pk probably...maybe ISU favored? We'll never know exactly but having your 2 top scorers wouldn't hurt you...which would make NI a pk or +1...

Am I over thinking this? Probably...but just wanted to throw my thoughts out on it...see what others think...

Because last night I played Pepperdine -9 with their starting scorer out...and they covered nicely.

[Fins007]

Dunc,

I love what your doing and this "system" really works. I have tried to follow along like the others.

Regarding today's action (Friday), (I don't have all of KP's info) but couldn't Wichita State (-8),
Cleveland St (+6), playing Butler and a big matchup in the Horizon, and Siena (+1 1/2) be plays?

Keep up the good work.....Thanks!!

[Axis]

^^
KP only has Butler winning by 5, so Cleveland St. would need to be +7 or higher to be a play...same for the rest you posted.

[Fins007]

Thanks!.....Guess we will have to watch the "lines" and if they move a little then these could
come into play......I like Wichita State and Siena.....the Horizon battle is going to be hard to firgure
out with conviction.

[GGZOLA]

next to prediction, he has a percentage, and last column a "thrill score"
what are those Dunc?

[DuncHen22]

Thanks!.....Guess we will have to watch the "lines" and if they move a little then these could
come into play......I like Wichita State and Siena.....the Horizon battle is going to be hard to firgure
out with conviction.

I only go off of opening lines. I don't play games that move into the system and my logic is that if it starts outside the system and move into it, it's probably due to an outside factor that KP's stats can't account for.

[DuncHen22]

next to prediction, he has a percentage, and last column a "thrill score"
what are those Dunc?

This is from KP's website:

"Chance of pleasurable hoops experience (CPHE) given by the percentage to the right of the game. No, I will not tell you what the formula for CPHE is. [Note: As of 11/11/10, CPHE has been re-branded as ThrillScoreTM.]"

[Squareguy]

Loyola still doesn't have a line on Bodog, but they have the game showing, so it should be up soon, hopefully at -4.

[Axis]

I only go off of opening lines. I don't play games that move into the system and my logic is that if it starts outside the system and move into it, it's probably due to an outside factor that KP's stats can't account for.

I agree with that.

If it starts in, moves out, then moves back in...I'll play it if I haven't already...but if it starts out and moves in...that's unaccounted for with the opening line...

It should always be used with the opening line because that's how you're trying to get an advantage on the book...trying to catch them on an off line before they have time to correct it.

[Axis]

Glad I hopped on ISU...hopefully they can keep it up at this pace!

[DuncHen22]

1/7

Tier 1:
Loyola MD -4 (2) WIN

Tier 2:
Indiana State +3 (2) WIN

2-0 Today! I decided to take a risk today and I took Loyola -5 and was pleased with the outcome!

Glad you stuck with it, Axis! That's why I try not to overthink those things. The books know the lineups (most of the time) and adjust their books accordingly. Obviously they didn't think too much of it. I only get worried when there is a large discrepancy between KP's projection and the line (like 6 pts or more), especially if it keeps moving away.

[Axis]

2-0 Today! I decided to take a risk today and I took Loyola -5 and was pleased with the outcome!

Glad you stuck with it, Axis! That's why I try not to overthink those things. The books know the lineups (most of the time) and adjust their books accordingly. Obviously they didn't think too much of it. I only get worried when there is a large discrepancy between KP's projection and the line (like 6 pts or more), especially if it keeps moving away.

Yea...my gut told me to stay with it because ISU has played a few games without the one guy, and last game without both so...like you said, the books know way better than us who is playing and not playing.

Based on the lines and KP tonight...there are about 23 possible plays tomorrow haha...

Gonna have to really look into these...

[LockPickMaster]

Damn this really works