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Yeah that's kinda what I figured. His data is currently up to date (through tues, 1/4) so the predictions for 1/5 are now set and nothing changed. I think most of the time it doesn't change much (hopefully). I'm not sure when he normally updates it but as long as it's usually around this time it'll be fine.Comment -
thanx again. Your posts are great. Do you cont. To favor the tier 2?Comment -
As of now, I'm treating tier 1 and 2 equally, just because this system is so new. It's hard to tell how it's going to end up so this season is sort of a trial run. After the end of the season I'll re-evaluate all the different aspects of the system.
That being said, it seems tier 3 plays aren't doing much better than 50% so I'm hesitant to play them at all. But I generally put a little down on them since they seem to be staying even at the very least.Comment -
K thanx.Comment -
Appreciate the info man... have gone 3-0 based on ur picks the last 2 days and avoided the 2 losses based on my own research... gives me a great starting point to look at the games from and I really appreciate it!
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Great job! Glad I could help aid your own research to make an even better decision! Keep it up!
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excuse my ignorance but who is kp and where do you find his predictions?Comment -
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delaware and uc irvine should be plays too....Comment -
I didn't include Delaware because KP has it at 11 and I was not yet sure whether I should be making the cutoff at 10 for the actual spread or KPs predictions...
But yes, UC-Irvine -6 (3) is a tier 1 play. The line wasn't out last night.
Thanks for keeping me honest here. It makes me a better 'capper in the future.Comment -
He I just was reading up on this and was wondering do you use Excell to break the scores down? Do you do any line watching for games that fall into place after the morning line? JC
Also a big thanks for sharing!Comment -
Yeah I extract the data from KenPom.com and use excel to figure out his predicted spreads. Then I weed out anything larger than 10 and look at the opening lines for the remaining games. I haven't looked at lines that fall into the system after the opening lines. It may be worth following but my logic behind not following them is if it began inside 2pts from KP's predictions and moved out, it's probably moving due to factors outside of KP's abilities (injury, lineup change, etc). That being said, it may be good to follow those and see how they end up.Comment -
Yup. That's another one that fell into place after the Monday to Tuesday update. When I double-checked the lines I was only looking at the games I had already picked to make sure none had fallen out of place. I didn't check the others and the initial prediction for that game was UNLV by 3.
...Although I just checked the line for that and it opened at -3.5, so it still wouldn't have counted since it moved to a 2pt diff. I personally like UNLV in that game anyway.
I just want to thank everyone for double-checking my work! As long as you don't get frustrated with me for my mistakes it's all good. Keep in mind this thread is still meant to be just as a tracking thread.Comment -
thanks for the answers. This really looks promising and I just want to make sure I totally understand it.
I can see your point about the line moving due to unexpected unknown.Comment -
Don't mind helping at all because like I said...I've used this as a jump start to my capping for a while...and I'm normally busy early in the day so I don't get around to it until afternoon/night normally.
Glad I can help...after all, that's the goal, right!? $$
That BYU win last night was big...
I'd be curious to go back threw my stats and see which dogs ended up winning straight up...Comment -
1/6:
Tier 1:
Arkansas State -2.5 (2.5)
Wright State -4 (3)
Villanova -7 (2)
[ADDED] Montana State -6 (3)
[ADDED] Fresno +2 (3)
Tier 2:
UNC-Greensboro +4 (2)
Tier 3:
Stanford +5 (3)
Idaho +7 (3)Comment -
So I grabbed data from pre- and post-updated KP stats and here is what I found:
*7 out of 35 games (# of games with a spread <10) had changed
*No game changed more than 1 point either direction.
*It changed two of our picks but didn't affect either
-Arizona State went from being a 1-point fave to a 2-point fave
-Wright State went from being a 6-pt fave to a 7-pt fave
*By waiting until morning, I didn't lose any plays due to line movements
-A few lines had moved, but no more than 1/2 a point and still within the limit
-Villanova actually moved to -7.5 (only a 1.5 diff) but I got it on discount for -101 so I felt it was a fair price
(You could buy down if you want that extra 1/2 point, although I don't know how that plays out in the long run)
I'll keep following this for a while. It may be worth waiting until KP gets the updated numbers, or it may not make a difference. Obviously it's made a difference in the past (as evidenced by the past few days) but it may be infrequent and it may be better to not risk the line movements. We shall follow and see.Comment -
what about montana st (3) and saint mary's (4)Comment -
GL and good observations!Comment -
Isn't samford a play also today..Comment -
Yea DuncHen... I'm seeing a lot of other plays actually... Cinci, Florida International, Fresno St., St. Marys, and Pepperdine... all less than 10 point favs and all catching 2 or more... let me know if I'm on the right page here...Comment -
scratch FIU... read it the wrong way... but other than that they all fit I believe...Comment -
Samford is playing UNC Greensboro. They can't both be plays. But taking an 0-12 team with only 4 points against a 9-5 Samford is a little nutty in my opinion. UNC Greensboro's best game was against Wake Forest only losing by 2, but other than that haven't stayed within 10 points to anyone.Comment -
fresno st and st mary's good catch on the others..Comment -
st mary's definitely looks the most tempting...Comment -
MSU is a play. KP projected a spread >10 for St Mary so I didn't take that one.
Fresno is a play (not sure how I missed that). I wasn't sure on Pepp because KP had them at 10pts and I wasn't sure how I should play those. And Cincy was >10.Comment -
Also St Mary has moved from -9.5 down to -8 so I'd have been worried about that line movement anyway.Comment -
So in conclusion:
I added Fresno +2 and Montana St -6.
Pepperdine, St Mary's, and Cincy are all in the gray zone in my mind. They are projected double-digit winners according to KP but with a line less than 10. Do I make the cut-off at 10 for KP or the given spread? My gut is telling me to make the cutoff with KP but I'll watch them for now and see how they do.
Sorry I missed the other 2 plays. I just haven't found a good routine yet for getting all the info together and sorted. I'll get it eventually.Comment -
It's your system but the way I normally choose to do it...is only look at games that the books think will be competitive, i.e. I only look at games with a spread of less than 9.5 points...even if KP has the game a bigger difference, the books think it will be competitive...Comment -
Btw thanks again man... at 7-0 right now using only ur pics to start my capping and choosing max of 4 plays per day...
Hit on Army, Drexel, and Purdue last night...
BTW... what 4 games would u chose tonight if you had to? opinions from anyone would be appreciated...
Right now leaning Stanford, Cinci, Nova... and maybe St. Mary's... anyone have any strong feelings on any of these plays or any of the one's that I didn't mention???
Thanks in advance!
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Well, I made 5 plays...Arkansas State, Stanford, Cincy, Fresno State, and Pepperdine.Comment
