Pomeroy Plays

EaglesPhan36 · 11-24-10, 11:48 AM

Don't know if I will be able to get plays up Thursday or Friday due to the holidays and travel plans, but will try if I can. Enjoy your turkey!

11.24.10

1. CLEVELAND STATE +2.5 [KENPOM -1] AKRON
2. VIRGINIA +4 [KENPOM +1] WICHITA STATE
3. SAN FRANCISCO +7 [KENPOM +2] MONTANA STATE
4. SOUTHERN UTAH +7 [KENPOM +4] DRAKE
5. AIR FORCE +13 [KENPOM +9] WOFFORD

As usual, some more than fell into the formula that I left off because they seemed a little more iffy. Will list those below for you to decide on:

USC -16 [KENPOM -20] FULLERTON
ARKANSAS -22 [KENPOM -27] ARKANSAS STATE
MISSOURI -10 [KENPOM -13] LaSALLE

JR007 · 11-24-10, 01:15 PM

Happy Holidays to you as well Dude...thanks for your effort on this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dawgfan1980 · 11-24-10, 01:35 PM

I have been looking at the thread, and looking at Pomeroy's rankings. I may have missed it, but how are you coming up with these numbers? Have you created your own formula? Maybe I am not looking at the right chart?

Jive · 11-24-10, 01:40 PM

Click on the link at the top of his pages that says FanMatch. It will have the projected scores listed there.

16johnnymac · 11-24-10, 01:44 PM

Are your picks in black or blue

Dawgfan1980 · 11-24-10, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by Jive

Click on the link at the top of his pages that says FanMatch. It will have the projected scores listed there.

Thanks. Makes sense now. It doesn't involve some complex mathematical equation after all.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-24-10, 03:27 PM

PICKS ARE IN BLUE
BLACK IS THE TEAM THEY ARE PLAYING

No complex mathmatical formula here. The first number listed is the line at my sportsbook [BetPhoenix] and the KENPOM predicted outcome is listed second. If there is more than a 2.5 point disparity between the lines, then it is a suggested play simply based on what I have seen here early in the season when this occurs. So if a favorite is favored by -3 at the sportsbook and the KENPOM prediction is that they win by 6 or more, it is a play to look at. If they are predicted to win by 5 or less, no play. For an underdog, if they are being given +7 and the predicted KENPOM scoreline has them losing by 4 or less, it is a play to look at. If the KENPOM scoreline suggests that they will lose by 5 or more, no play.

Hope that helps!

Gamblin'Machi · 11-24-10, 03:37 PM

Arkansas is playing SE Missouri St. not Arkansas State

Surebet · 11-24-10, 03:46 PM

I am on Air Force and Virginia teaser...@ -140
Virginia + 9.5
Air Force + 18.5

Make it work.

zanman822 · 11-24-10, 04:10 PM

Love the Air Force play tonight

Balco10 · 11-24-10, 06:12 PM

I took Virginia first thing this morning at +3 and now the line is +4.5....
This worries the shit out of me as the sharps are on WSU.

Surebet · 11-24-10, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Balco10

I took Virginia first thing this morning at +3 and now the line is +4.5....
This worries the shit out of me as the sharps are on WSU.

Balco, Looking good so far on Air Force. I think VA will hold together too.

Surebet · 11-24-10, 07:44 PM

Halfway thru $$$...
Lets roll with VA.

usainbolt · 11-24-10, 11:20 PM

Southern Utah should cover very easily if not beat Drake straight up..

really liking this kenpom angle. gl all

Balco10 · 11-24-10, 11:36 PM

Too bad QT is down, as I would put more action on SUU!

Balco10 · 11-24-10, 11:39 PM

Rush Limbaugh, UV screwed us by not showing up today. I had a hunch the Shocker's would pulled it
out after the sharps were on them.

Balco10 · 11-25-10, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by usainbolt

Southern Utah should cover very easily if not beat Drake straight up..

really liking this kenpom angle. gl all

Not looking real good and this could be a 20 + blowout loser.
drake looks freaking great!

Balco10 · 11-25-10, 12:15 AM

Looks like EP36 went 2-3 on his blue plays today. Hey you can't always have winning days.
Better luck tomorrow!

Jive · 11-25-10, 12:53 AM

SUU trying to make a game of it! Down 7....

EaglesPhan36 · 11-25-10, 01:19 AM

Well 2-3, but the extra plays went 2-1 also. If anyone is up and wants to post all the picks that might fall into the formula tomorrow so I can check back to track the formula - would be appreciated! Doubt I will be awake and/or around the computer tomorrow to post anything. Good luck with your plays! Get stuffed on food & winners!

Balco10 · 11-25-10, 01:32 AM

Better off getting stuff on alcohol!

Balco10 · 11-25-10, 01:33 AM

No game Jive and write the fucker off!

Jive · 11-25-10, 01:59 AM

Yeah, stupid SBR scoreboard screwed me over. It said it was 57-51 and SUU was on the comeback, so I turn the game on the TV and it was 63-49! That scoreboard goofed me twice tonight by showing one of the teams having more points than they actually had. I mean, if you are going to be behind and delayed with a correct score, I can understand that. But this crap of showing scores that never existed ticks me off!

Balco10 · 11-25-10, 03:04 AM

pomeroy may be a good picker, but you still have to do you owe research.
I could of easily picked the best two of his and got killed! I did actually
get hurt today under this picks, but shit happens and you are your own best
handicapper.

mrkron · 11-25-10, 11:37 AM

remember to stick to the system it has its ups and downs

Surebet · 11-25-10, 11:42 AM

Murray St v Stanford
Stanford +2.50 Teaser
Houston Baptist v Arizona St
Arizona St -17.50 Teaser
Teaser Type:
4 point
Price:-120
Bet Amount:$20
Bet Payout:$ 36.67

I am Very very small tonight after Virginia fell for me last nite? Anyone else looking?

EaglesPhan36 · 11-25-10, 12:32 PM

Had a chance to do a quick check and only one game today fell within the criteria. Everything else fell outside. Definitely an interesting one to play because nothing from ASU even against a poor D1 bottom feeder like HBU suggests a total blowout, but I'll follow it. Enjoy the day fellas! Happy Thanksgiving.

ARIZONA STATE -21.5 [KENPOM -25] HOUSTON BAPTIST

Ushouldpayme · 11-26-10, 09:39 AM

This is a pretty good system.

beefcake · 11-26-10, 11:26 AM

Good stuff EP! Ya know what has worked for me in the last as well (just for SBR points) is taking the games where there is under 30% of the money bet on a certain team in NCAA bball on the SBR odds and the line has moved at least a few points in favor of the 70% or higher team...Over the long haul it doenst lose hardly anything..Whether one could make consistent profit ..I dont know..

JR007 · 11-26-10, 01:25 PM

Last nights Ariz state..game...total moved from the open of -138 to -144 and the under was "juiced to -117 at the last minute under came in.....

EaglesPhan36 · 11-26-10, 04:22 PM

Alright, we'll see how these work out since I got the lines in the afternoon, but in any case ...

11.26.10

1. PENN STATE +6 [KENPOM +3] MISSISSIPPI
2. WASHINGTON STATE -7.5 [KENPOM -12] FRESNO STATE
3. MISSISSIPPI STATE -17.5 [KENPOM -23] TROY
4. ARIZONA STATE -6 [KENPOM -9] WEBER STATE
5. MERCER +6 [KENPOM +3] WESTERN CAROLINA

TWEETS · 11-26-10, 04:36 PM

Good Stuff here EP, I'm going to try taking it a step farther and take KenPom's that are 4 points off from the line and then look at Sagarin ratings to see if any of those are 4 points off. Only 1 I got for today is Miss St.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-26-10, 05:01 PM

Cool. If you want to track those in here, that'd be awesome.

Balco10 · 11-26-10, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Had a chance to do a quick check and only one game today fell within the criteria. Everything else fell outside. Definitely an interesting one to play because nothing from ASU even against a poor D1 bottom feeder like HBU suggests a total blowout, but I'll follow it. Enjoy the day fellas! Happy Thanksgiving.

ARIZONA STATE -21.5 [KENPOM -25] HOUSTON BAPTIST

I got hurt bad here!
I can't see liking ASU again tonight vs Weber St.
I'll take the 6 points and the ML.I think Weber St is
the better team.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-26-10, 07:07 PM

Looks like Mercer is going to cash to start the evening.