Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[impper]

I've been paying attention to the times that Pinny has been fading the public over the last few days and my PERCEPTION is that they win more often than not. I haven't tracked or tested though so take that with a grain of salt.

[linedrivr]

I just ran CBB through the calc. Here is what I got using -170.


STJOES +8.5 -108 +11.5 0.80%
DET U +2 -107 +5 1.26%
BG +6 -115 +9 2.56%
DRA +1.5 -108 +4.5 0.75%
ILLST -4.5 -110 -1.5 1.49%

interested to see what everyone else comes up with.

[linedrivr]

a 2nd run thru beginning at 12:08pm.

Villanova -15 -110 -12 1.80%
Tulsa +1 -110 +4 1.80%

[johnsonbig11]

I went back to last week and what I recorded as leans, then teased them 5 points.....wed 12/1 15-4 79% win....Thursday 12/2 9-2 82%...Friday 12/3 5-0 100%....Tuesday 12/7 8-0 100%. I will keep you updated with this.

[impper]

That looks pretty good Johnson. We'll see how it goes with a larger sample size

[johnsonbig11]

I went back and paired teams as I would have done....if there was an odd number of plays/leans, I didn't pair the heavy public play and left it out. Teaser record was: 12/1 6-3 +1.2 units.....12/2 3-2 +0.1 unit..... 12/3 2-0 +1.4 units.... 12/7 4-0 +2.8 units.... for +5.5 units. Again...I'll track and let you know.

[jolmscheid]

Hey Chili or Impper...do you guys know how to backtest over a few seasons?? I have some angles I want to backtest over the past couple of years and I would give at least 300 points if you guys know how...lemme know. Thanks!

[chilidog]

What are you wanting to backtest?

[impper]

These guys let you look at the NBA season from 2003-2006 for free

http://www.nba-statistics.com/

covers.com should let you see line movement for history, which you could cross-reference with nba-statistics. Would be a bit of work, and it'd be hard to see how pinnacle was leaning at any particular time...

covers.com/sports/nba/nba_lines.aspx

I remember reading about some databases, let me see if I can remember/find them

[pokerwhiz90]

best of luck!

[pokerwhiz90]

hey chilidog, whats todays plays?

[chilidog]

CBB
St Josephs +11.5 2.1u
Buffalo -10 5.3u
Illinois State -1.5 3.1u
Tulsa +4 3.5u
Missouri -1.5 3.4u

NBA will come in about 2.5 hours.

[jolmscheid]

Nice I got the exact same cbb plays as you chili...and in nba I have the cavs and clippers.

For backtesting I have a handful of angles I want to backtrack. No clue how and no time to do it right. Chili or imp id give 500 points for the backtesting of my angles!

[chilidog]

Lakers and clippers - that'll be a fun game to watch tonight.

[pokerwhiz90]

thanks!

[incomeraise]

chillidog sorry but i have a quick question about u following crusher system> u said u used the labby lines right:so do u use a line for each sports?or how do u go about it?
fb 1-1-1-1
basketball1-1-1-1
hockey 1-1-1-1
lets say the POD for football loses so do u add 2 to the first labby line or do u add it to the 3rd line...and if so, when do u make a play in the 3rd labby line? just trying to put things together...
If i am clogging the thread, please send me a PM.thanks

[impper]

Nice I got the exact same cbb plays as you chili...and in nba I have the cavs and clippers.

For backtesting I have a handful of angles I want to backtrack. No clue how and no time to do it right. Chili or imp id give 500 points for the backtesting of my angles!

I've been looking for a good database and it's looking like I'd have to construct one myself. Maybe someone else can weigh in... I can do it, it's just that I'm strapped for time.

[chilidog]

chillidog sorry but i have a quick question about u following crusher system> u said u used the labby lines right:so do u use a line for each sports?or how do u go about it?
fb 1-1-1-1
basketball1-1-1-1
hockey 1-1-1-1
lets say the POD for football loses so do u add 2 to the first labby line or do u add it to the 3rd line...and if so, when do u make a play in the 3rd labby line? just trying to put things together...
If i am clogging the thread, please send me a PM.thanks

I start out with 1 labby line per system, so since you inquired about Crusher, I'll go with that. Usually, he has 3 plays a day. Sometimes there's only 2 plays if no football is being played. In the beginning, I setup 1 labby line for each play. Now, on to the next day. When the plays are released, I input them into my spreadsheet, and I grab the oldest active labby line and move it down to play for the 1st play. Then I grab the 2nd oldest labby line and move it down for the 2nd play, etc. Because there are days where he only has 2 plays for the day, I'm not using the same labby line for that sport. By doing it this way, I can avoid long losses in case he happens to go on a losing streak in a particular sport. I do this with all systems that I play (except the system that we're doing in this thread - I don't do a labby on those).

In the case where there are no more active labby lines to move down, then I just start a new one, but increasing the wager unit.

[phillybadboy]

CBB St Josephs +11.5 2.1u Buffalo -10 5.3u Illinois State -1.5 3.1u Tulsa +4 3.5u Missouri -1.5 3.4u NBA will come in about 2.5 hours.

good luckn with the plays

[stelio]

i been tdvaneasing both collage and nba with +5 points since 11/27 with all advantages
cbb is 42-20 and nba is 7-6

[stelio]

teasing

[phillybadboy]

wher the nba plays boys

[incomeraise]

I start out with 1 labby line per system, so since you inquired about Crusher, I'll go with that. Usually, he has 3 plays a day. Sometimes there's only 2 plays if no football is being played. In the beginning, I setup 1 labby line for each play. Now, on to the next day. When the plays are released, I input them into my spreadsheet, and I grab the oldest active labby line and move it down to play for the 1st play. Then I grab the 2nd oldest labby line and move it down for the 2nd play, etc. Because there are days where he only has 2 plays for the day, I'm not using the same labby line for that sport. By doing it this way, I can avoid long losses in case he happens to go on a losing streak in a particular sport. I do this with all systems that I play (except the system that we're doing in this thread - I don't do a labby on those).

In the case where there are no more active labby lines to move down, then I just start a new one, but increasing the wager unit.

you know what, thinking about it, i really believe that's the way to go, because mos ofthe time those systems have 3 systems losses/year max, but with a chase system that would kill any type of profits made!whereas the labby will make it way more profitable...great point!! and thanks for the help

[chilidog]

you know what, thinking about it, i really believe that's the way to go, because mos ofthe time those systems have 3 systems losses/year max, but with a chase system that would kill any type of profits made!whereas the labby will make it way more profitable...great point!! and thanks for the help

The only downside to a labby is that it does take longer to clear the line if you've had 3 losses in a row. But it will recover your loss and make your season more profitable, and that's all that I'm concerned with.

[phillybadboy]

CBB St Josephs +11.5 2.1u Buffalo -10 5.3u Illinois State -1.5 3.1u Tulsa +4 3.5u Missouri -1.5 3.4u NBA will come in about 2.5 hours.

nice winners dude

[jolmscheid]

Well Impper I would give you 500 points if you did decide to backtest for me

[mrkron]

anyone ever try using other lines besides pinny?

[chilidog]

cheme said you can use pinny, matchbook, or thegreek lines, but he found pinny's to be the best

[jolmscheid]

Unbelievable...Illinois State and Missouri leading in the 2nd half and both are gonna lose...plus Tulsa is getting blown out...so much for a nice early start to my night....

[phillybadboy]

yeah after th 2-0 start i thought it was gona be positive night

[phillybadboy]

overtime missouri game, winner

[johnsonbig11]

Hey Fellas....sorry I've been out (not that you'd miss me) but had an idea to make my plays and will try this just for the heck of it and let you know how it goes. I am not on a book that allows point buying, so my thought was to find plays and tease them two together, buying 4 or 5 points. I know that the chances to win are reduced because you need two to win, however, I can get 5 points at -130 and 4 points at a rate of -110. I like the points, so I'm going with buying 5. My plays today are:

1. Towson +12 at -110 lean from pinny at 11:00 a.m. EST and Texas Tech -2 with the same lean L -1.0 u

2. St. Mary's -15 1/2 at -110 and Fordham -1/2 at -114 W +.7 u

3. Wright St. -2 at -109 and Bradley +33 at -109 L -1.0 u

4. Vandy +8 1/2 at -109 and Niagra +18 at -109 PUSH +.35u

Well, we'll see....it's all I could figure to do in order to get the point edge.

Let me know what you think!



Big

Well....5-2-1 with the games and 1-2-1 with the teasers. For the night I ended up down -.95 u. Could have been better, but it's a start. Pinny had Niagra at +18 1/2... my book was only at +18 and I didn't catch it. On to tomorrow night!

[chilidog]

Well....5-2-1 with the games and 1-2-1 with the teasers. For the night I ended up down -.95 u. Could have been better, but it's a start. Pinny had Niagra at +18 1/2... my book was only at +18 and I didn't catch it. On to tomorrow night!

Not too bad of results at all. But why don't you get an account at sportsbook.com, rebatewager, betjam, etc., and buy the 3 points for -170?

[chilidog]

I know it's only the 3rd quarter, but damn, who would've seen the clippers being in the lead! I had clippers +10.5 and sacramento -1.5 to finish out the night. I didn't like pulling the trigger on the clippers, but damn!

[phillybadboy]

Not too bad of results at all. But why don't you get an account at sportsbook.com, rebatewager, betjam, etc., and buy the 3 points for -170?

you can get 5 points -110 2 team teaser