Gotcha chili..so even though we may show an edge above .75% you would still pass on it?
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Does the probability of winning when you scroll the numbers come into play here? I am a Math nerd so this is fascinating to me. Also i noticed that the edge is usually the same for 2.5 vs 3 points. 2.5 is obviously less juice. wouldnt that be a better bet?Comment -
Still waiting on a few games to finish up, but I'm either gonna have a very slight winning day, or a very slight losing day. I'm pretty much splitting right now. Better than losing, but this still sucks!! What's happening this week? I want last week's results!!Comment -
I went 3-1 in NBA. But I went 6-9 in CBB. Ended up losing -3 units total for the night. This sucks.Comment -
Chili explained it perfectly. Basically, if Pinny is favoring one side heavily and your book notices, it will move the line so that it's not stuck handing out bets at +5 -110 when Pinny is giving +5 -109, so they move their line to +4.5 in anticipation of Pinny moving.
BTW I went 16-6-1 today for a total of +16 units. A couple of 1 point losses, but a couple of miracle covers as well. A TON of my big dogs won their games straightup. Houston Rockets, UCF, S. Florida, Miami Ohio, Pepperdine, LA Clippers. Out of 17 underdog plays, that's 6 underdogs hitting on the moneyline. However, 5 of my underdogs were losses even with point buying, so that means out of 12 wins, a full HALF won straightup. Some of these games were paying +250, +350!! That would've been a monster profit today betting the moneyline on dogs. Additionally, all of my favorite plays won outright, so moneyline would've been profitable there a well. I had a -2 game where the team won by 1 point, lolComment -
So I'd say that you're doing something right by doing the lines around noon, and just paying attention to the games where pinny is clearly favoring a certain side (-108 odds or higher), and ignoring games where your book has a 1/2 point difference against you. You did awesome tonight! For some reason, what worked really well for me last week (waiting 30 minutes before gametime) is not doing good at all so far this week.Comment -
My recent losses had me seriously doubting the 12 PM plays (especially since you were winning with 6 PM plays on some days), even to the point where on Tuesday I made my plays late in the day. Well, I lost there anyway at 6 PM. So today I didn't have any free time around then and I made the 12 PM plays and it was a big winner. You know, I really do think it just comes down to variance. We have an expected winning % of 66-68% on most of our plays, with maybe 64-65% at worst. I won at a 72% clip today and went up pretty big. On my losing days I was winning at 45%, 55%, 51%, and so on, which is a LOT more points off our average expected win rate of 66% than is 72%. At this moment I'd chalk the losses up to statistical noise more than anything else... If we were going down big winning at 58% or 60%, THEN there is some big room for concernComment -
What's making it difficult to grasp is that I'm doing really good in NBA. It's been steadily profitable for me since I started, and I usually do the entire NBA card at 6pm CST. Like tonight, going 3-1 with it. CBB is rather frustrating at times. And I'm sure it was frustrating for you when you were having losing days when you did the games at noon, and I would have a winning day by doing them at 5-6pm, and vice versa. I guess that I'm in that boat right now. 3 out of the last 4 days have been losing days for me, and it's been making me question the entire way that I've been doing things, even though they're the same ways that cheme has been doing them.
Do you still check the plays against matchbook, or you're only doing pinny and your book?Comment -
At 6 PM I checked my plays at matchbook, but early in the day it's pointlessComment -
Interestingly enough, and maybe I just didn't do it early enough, but about an hour before I ran my numbers, I even only looked at the games that were at -108 or worse, and those did a 50/50 split as well.
I do know that the last time this happened, maybe 3 weeks or so ago, I got very frustrated with it, and quit betting for about 5 days, and tracked the results, and the very day I quit betting it, it went on an awesome winning streak that ended for me this past SaturdayComment -
Yeah. I think that with point buying and a required 62% win rate, variance is just going to be killer. Sometimes a small string of things won't go our way and it'll swing us into even or negative, but overall there should simply be more winning days than losing days. We'll see how it goes from here on out
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Hey Imper, so you run your cbb plays at noon, when do you run your nba plays? also what's the formula again for the unit amount based on the edge???Comment -
I ran NBA at the same time and went 4-3 using the system. I also bet toronto, orlando, and new jersey based on my own capping but they didn't have more than a .2% edge on any of them so those are irrelevant to the threadComment -
Is it safe to assume longterm this system will be more effective for college hoops than it is the NBA?Comment -
No, I see no reason to assume that. I'd actually assume NBA is more profitable longterm since the lines are sharperComment -
Oh okay interesting, guess I could run the numbers and find out for sure. I just thought with the games having much lower totals (NCAAB vs NBA) maybe the points would be more effective. I will say I think the other guy has the better idea of doing the formula later better than earlier. Why? Because closing lines will always be sharper than the openers. Of course I could be wrong about that as well, LOL. Either way, good luck, I've been peaking in and wish you all the best.Comment -
Time to change thread
no more november
no more cheme82Comment -
Alrighty, another day now! I'm curious how jolm did last night, since he did his picks earlier in the day as well, because while I'm not getting killed, I feel like my bankroll has been hemmoraghing the past 4 days.Comment -
Do you guys play only straight bets using this system or you play overs/unders too ? I was wondering if it works as good for overs/unders too .Comment -
Just straight bets.Comment -
That is what I thought. How about if I am using pinnacle lines and betting on matchbook? Will this work or pinnacle lines and matchbook are virtually the same and you can't find any edge there? You also can't buy any points on matchbook .Comment -
No, this really wouldn't work, since pinny and/or matchbook are the main books that we pull the lines from. You need to use a local or a recreational book with softer lines for this to work.Comment -
I have noticed that after 12 pm until around 2-3 pm the lines for pinny and matchbook are a lot different. How about placing bets on matchbook during that time of the day or it still won't work?Comment -
Yah, matchbook lines are way off during the day. I've found that matchbook lines are fairly accurate before gametime.Comment -
there is no doubt that you can get some nice lines at matchbook early in the day, since it is peer to peer betting, but make sure that if you're doing this you're getting something for a much better deal than pinnacle is offeringI have noticed that after 12 pm until around 2-3 pm the lines for pinny and matchbook are a lot different. How about placing bets on matchbook during that time of the day or it still won't work?Comment -
yeah. seems like this early in the day matchbook is just following pinny anyhow.
today is gonna be the first day i'm putting real money on the moneyline for every one of my dogs. please for the love of god let the trend of the dogs outright winning continue . . .
I already placed 2 bets where my book was off big from the pinny lines. +11 on Arizona state with pinny giving them +10 1.909, and +6 on eastern kentucky where pinny is giving them +4.5 2.000Comment -
wow, UCLA is a +1200 dog against kansas. no edge on the play, b ut you think there's a better than 7% chance they win this game straightup?Comment -
Winning a +1200 dog would be awesome, but if there's no edge, I wouldn't play it.Comment -
Finished even yesterday, so not much to take out. Tried to place bet as late as possible (as a result missed couple). Out of 7 dogs I bet only 2 won outright so will wait with taking them outright, need more data.
One thing I noticed in several instances yesterday, just seconds before the closing time edge will change to opposite. Didn't have time to write down all the plays but just by looking at final results looks like effect was negligible, some bets lost some won.Comment -
alright i'm reading up on ucla and kansas and it looks like there's no chance ucla wins. still, they only need to win 7.6% of the time for that to be a good bet . . . hrm
i'm also a little biased because i watched ucla beat pacific earlier in the season and that nelson guy looked like an all-world talent. guess it helped that he was playing stiffsComment -
It seems to be up and down on when to place the bets. Jolm and impper have been doing good at times with betting earlier in the day, and I have been good at times when betting before gametime. Last week, they had more losses by betting earlier, and I killed it betting before gametime. This week has had the opposite effect. Cheme bet them 1-2 hours before gametime most of the time, but sometimes not until 15-30 minutes before, depending on how much time he had. Othertimes, he posted the plays between 3-4pm, because he wasn't going to be around at night to do the numbers.
I think that you're definitely on to something with betting on the ML dogs, but I'm still not gonna pull the trigger.alright i'm reading up on ucla and kansas and it looks like there's no chance ucla wins. still, they only need to win 7.6% of the time for that to be a good bet . . . hrm
i'm also a little biased because i watched ucla beat pacific earlier in the season and that nelson guy looked like an all-world talent. guess it helped that he was playing stiffsComment
