I am thinking about doing what you say Chili...any edge up to 2% is 2 Units....and any edge OVER 2% is 3 Units....I think that will avoid big swings....
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sounds good chili. that's similar to how I do it.Comment -
Cuz last night I went 8-5 on my plays but lost 4 Units...I am going to try to do all calcs at around NOON-2 each day so that I can place all my bets at once and hopefully get edges on the most games...Comment -
sometimes your book will give you such a huge edge that you want to push in more than just 3 units. just use your judgment. if you're getting a 10% edge you should be playing at least 4-6 units if you're putting 2 units on 1% edge plays. cheme was putting down 10 units on some plays
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that's about right jolm. you need to go 9-5 or 10-5 to show a small profit. remember that buying at -170, you need to hit 62% just to break even. going for a flatter wager size is to reduce some of the wild variance; you should still be putting more units in play for bigger edgesComment -
hey guys, i will be continually running pinny's lines against my own books for the next few hours, at about 15 minute intervals. any time i find an edge (or a line likely to move in my favor) I push it. what this means is that posting the plays isn't very useful--you have got to learn to do this on your own!!! the only time the plays are going to look alike is if we're all running our numbers 30 minutes pre-game, and we don't want to be watching this thread like a hawk every day now, do we?Comment -
Well that's just confusing then. Washington is still at -1.5 -110, and I checked the line history, and I haven't seen it at PK all day. UCLA is at +4, but I guess you were able to get it at +5.
Are you getting the pinny odds from pinny's website itself?
And what about the presbyterian/princeton game? Using pinny/betus' lines, I have the edges at:
Presbyterian +14 -170 0.68%
Princeton -8 -170 0.31%
Do you not play the games under a certain percentage?Comment -
sometimes your book will give you such a huge edge that you want to push in more than just 3 units. just use your judgment. if you're getting a 10% edge you should be playing at least 4-6 units if you're putting 2 units on 1% edge plays. cheme was putting down 10 units on some plays
Good point impper...but with -170 lines, I rarely get over a 4% edge...but I will definitely take that into account!Comment -
Oh I understand that, and I completely agree. I'm only posting the plays right now because if I'm using the same sources as you (pinny and betus lines), and getting -170 for the 3 points, then I should be getting the same plays as you are, at the time that you post them. Which is why it confused me when you posted those 4 plays, because I don't get the same numbers as you.Comment -
it was at PK on betus' website. I jumped on it.
as far as a game like pres/princeton at an 11 point spread at 1.952 on each side, i figured i'd wait to see if the line or the juice moved before i made any play. i don't like to make an early play unless i'm relatively certain the line is going to hold steady or move in my favor. for a game happening later this afternoon i figure i've got some time to wait and see how it plays out. those plays would be great an hour pre-game, but not so much this early.Comment -
Just going on the first few games of the day, using pinny/betus lines, these are the plays I come up with:
Chaminade +20 -170 0.14%
Presbyterian +14 -170 0.68%
Wofford -10 -170 1.70%
And you don't have any of those listed as the plays you made.Comment -
oops and there goes utah against me. already one mistake today, dangComment -
The chaminade game is not a play at my local, I was just listing the pinny/betus lines. I play mainly with my local on this, I'm just trying to learn what you're doing that is so much more successful, and I think that part of it is using a better wager unit than a flat-out percentage of bankroll.Comment -
well i still am going by the calculator, it's just that at noon, with -105 on either side at a line like +11, it's a 50/50 shot that the line moves either way. if the line moves to 11.5 then it's a bad play, if it moves to 10.5 it's good, i'd rather just eliminate the uncertainty.
like for example, if the line is -11 2.000, +11 1.909 on pinnacle, it's almost certainly going to move to 10.5 later on and at the books. if we can buy it at +11 (+14 -170) at our book then it becomes a monster play. those are the plays i try to keep an eye out forComment -
Gotcha now... I love it when things start to click.
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So impper...if Pinny is favoring a side, you are saying that it will continue to move that way? For example if a game is at +11 -107 , -11 -103 at Pinny, then which way you say the line would move?
I am just trying to understand when is the best time to place my bets as I really only have a couple hours to do so during the day from between Noon-3.....Comment -
You kinda get what I am saying impper? Chili?Comment -
it's no guarantee, but the line is far more likely to move in your favor if pinny is favoring it. the more they're favoring it, the better off you are. at those numbers it's slightly more likely to move to 10.5 than it is to stay at 11 or move to 11.5. looking for those pinny edges, almost every play i make, the line moves in my favor later in the day.
unfortunately i already made one bad move today ah well, i'll get it back
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Ok sounds good impper...so FOR THE MOST PART, if I can get the same line when Pinny is favoring one side, I should jump on it because it will most likely move the other way later on?
Just want to be sure that if I am placing these bets between Noon-3, that it will still be OK than having to wait until shortly before gametimeComment -
and of course, the absolute best play to make is one where there is a discrepancy between pinny and your own book. for example, pinny was offering washington at -1.5, but betus offered it at PK. the PK is an easy play to make there. not as great as if pinny was offering +10 1.909 and my book offering +11.5 1.909, but still good nonethelessComment -
you still want to use the calculator. there are certain lines where you just do not want to bet a dog or a favorite, so don't forget to use the calculator even if pinny is giving you great oddsOk sounds good impper...so FOR THE MOST PART, if I can get the same line when Pinny is favoring one side, I should jump on it because it will most likely move the other way later on?
Just want to be sure that if I am placing these bets between Noon-3, that it will still be OK than having to wait until shortly before gametimeComment -
Makes sense impper...I have books at RebateWager and BetJamaica that allows me to buy 3 points for -170....I have come to the conclusion that really the only edges I can get is if Pinny is heavier on one side or if my book is .5 or more points off of Pinny's....so pretty much I should just look for line discrpancies and also for lines that Pinny is favoring and jump on those.....I am really not going to even pay attention to the -105 lines on both sides because it could end up moving either way on me during the remainder of the day.
I am wondering, do you get lines that are off a lot more often at a BetUS than say BetJamaica like I have?Comment -
i don't track bet jamaica's lines but i'd bet anything that betus' lines are weaker than BJ's. there are at least 3-4 free-money plays from betus that i see every day. maybe that's why there are rumors they might be bankrupt lol
e: and yes the -105 plays at pinny are worth looking at 1 hour pre-game, but this early in the day it's really a crapshoot imho. just having that 1.5% edge at -170 doesn't mean a lot if the game moves against youComment -
Very true impper......well I would like to put some money in at BetUS to take advantage of their weak lines, but I just want to be sure that I will get paid...you have NEVER had a problem with them? Can you ask for a payout by cash and get it no problem?
Thanks imp..Comment -
Here's an interesting one that is on opposing sides.
Air Force is currently +13 -103 on pinny, and Wofford is -13 -107 on pinny.
Betus has them at +13/-13 at -110, which would make Wofford -10 the play, giving it a 1.7% edge.
My local has air Force +13.5 -105, and Wofford at -13.5 -105, which would make Air Force +16.5 -165 the play, giving it a 2% edge.
See how it gets confusing, heh.Comment -
looks like a good middle opportunity
at -107 -13 wofford you have to think there's a >50% chance the line moves to 13.5 later on in the day. if air force +16.5 -165 is still a good play in that case then i'd jump on itComment -
guys,
I had an account with betus for 4 years, I absolutely hammered them by scalping their soft lines.
They abruptly (about damn time I was expecting it for a while) closed my account this summer. I always got paid, have 1800 left in there which they said they would wire to me next week. Its a great book to take advantage of, but they will boot you sooner or later.Comment -
Very true, but in this case, the line started at 14.5, then 14, then 13.5, and now 13 at most placesComment -
ah i see. looks like it started its life as a bad line and got hammered down to 13. i'm still not sure how much analysis i want to put into the history of line movements, as far as this system goes. we're assuming pinny is efficient when using the calculator . . . dont wanna throw too many monkey wrenches in there just yet, at least not 'til we're more confident hahaComment -
geez, that utah game is about to move to 10.5 ! i wonder what's going on. pinny had the +9 favored about an hour ago and now they've got -10 1.885. so you can see this can move against you, it's just that this is unlikely. other than the idaho game where i got KILLED this is the only time this has happened to me so farComment -
Well I think RebateWager offers weak lines earlier in the day...I just ran the numbers and I had a lot of plays where they were .5 to 1 point off of Pinny, so I got some great edges....I think I'm just gonna stick with 2 units on edges up to 2% and 4 Units on edges 2% and up...since I get -170 lines, I rarely get any edges above 4-5% ....Comment -
if their line is off pinny's by a whole point then your edge should be in the range of 6-10% depending on the juice
edit: one last thing: watch out for times when the line being offered by your book is off pinny's bya half point for good reason.
example: -7 1.885, +7 2.02 on pinny. if your book has it at 7.5, it's because they're anticipating the line movement. so you're not getting an edge by buying anything at 7.5Comment