Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

hey chili, so you havent had any problems with betus? maybe i'll stick with them, but im a little worried since cheme has been saying theyre bankrupt.

i do love their interface and how bad their lines are though

I personally don't have any problems with betus, but people post on here that they do. I opened my betus account years ago, before I knew about SBR (I bought the JM NBA system, and he recommended betus, so I joined). I've always been paid out, but I guess that it's still buyer beware.

also i thought about it some more and choosing 5 bets to parlay would be excessive. that involves 10 combinations of parlays, where 4 bets involves 4 combinations of parlays, and 3 bets is only one parlay, assuming you're going 3-way parlays. it's probably better to stick with your 3 best or 4 best bets anyhow, though if it indeed is profitable i could see wanting to push it. maybe somebody better at math could tell me why i'm wrong, if i am

I do agree that 5 bets in a parlay would probably not be a good idea. However, I don't think that the payout on a 3 team parlay would be that much, considering we are laying -165/-170 odds on 3 teams. I don't really play around with parlays too much, so I don't know the payout numbers on them; I can't really be of any help on this one, sorry.

[impper]

the numbers i gave in my post was assuming -170, so a 3 team parlay at -170 each pays out $151.38 at $50 wagered. not sure how much more it would pay out at -165. i also heard that parlays pay out a lot more if you vary the numbers some amount, but i'm not sure how that one works

e: okay i just put in some numbers. 2 bets at -170 and 1 bet at -110 = $192.13 paid out

[chilidog]

2 RAS plays are out:

James Madison -5
Presbyterian +6

[chilidog]

Wow, then I was wrong; I didn't figure that a 3 team parlay with -170 odds would be worth it, but it looks like it definitely is. I won't be betting these, but I will definitely start tracking them.

[impper]

Wow, then I was wrong; I didn't figure that a 3 team parlay with -170 odds would be worth it, but it looks like it definitely is. I won't be betting these, but I will definitely start tracking them.

yeah, i could be wrong but they do look like good bets if your edge is big enough. anywhere north of a 2.5% edge on each bet and i'd say it's clearly worth doing. maybe for 1-2 units if you have 10-20 units in play on the 3 actual bets. there's probably an optimal level to put into the parlays

[dikgarland]

Sunday result? ang gl today?

[chilidog]

Sunday's CBB (RAS plays) went 2-1

[Cheme82]

Results:
2-1-0 +4.75 units

YTD
45-32-0 +12.58 units

[Cheme82]

Monday
11/22/10

James Madison -5.5 -105 5
Prebysterian +6 -105 5
Kentucky under 140 -105 5

GL

[katyblazy]

bad night, better next, no problem

[chilidog]

I went 9-6 on CBB, but lost 2 units, because 2 of the losses were 5 unit bets (and one of them lost by 1/2 a point, grrrr). On to today!!

[impper]

college was a strange night for me. i went 9-1 on the day but finished 11-4. what a downer to go to sleep up big and wake up with only a modest profit...

well like they say, any day where you profit is a good day so i guess i shouldn't complain

[chilidog]

Yup, exactly the same with me. I killed it during the day. I was also at 9-1 when I called it a night, then woke up to 9-6 Thankfully I did good in NBA, so I finished up with a +6 unit profit. Should've been way more though!

[impper]

nice chili

were you on that idaho game? they scored like 2 points in the first 10 minutes, or so i hear. god damn, haha. i wonder what happened there

[chilidog]

Yah I was, that one sucked! Miami Ohio, Xavier, and Idaho were the ones that hurt the most.

[Cheme82]

Results:
0-2-0 -10.5 units

YTD
45-34-0 +2.08 units

[Cheme82]

I'm taking a little break guys, good luck on your action.

[chilidog]

We'll be here when ya get back!

[shawood]

chili where do u post ur plays?

[chilidog]

I haven't been posting them, because this is cheme's thread.

[shawood]

so where do u post urs?

[chilidog]

I don't post them. Besides, my plays will be different than others, because it's all going to depend upon what lines that your book gives you, so my edge might be different than yours.

[thebestthereis]

Sure. I just mean that I run the calculator first using the pinny numbers against bodog's lines. Then I run it a 2nd time using matchbook's numbers and bodog's lines. If the calculator gives me an edge on both pinny and matchbook (on the same side of the game), then I take the edge percentage from pinny, and mark it down as a play.

Aside from the 3 RAS plays today, the CBB plays that I tracked went 18-10, gaining +12.73 units. This is 5 days in a row being profitable ever since doing the tracking with both pinny and matchbook. I think it's safe to say that it's okay to jump in now, heh. I was only being cautious because I got buried last week doing the CBB plays using only pinny. So when another poster here said that he was only doing the plays that both pinny and matchbook agreed upon, I started tracking it the same way, and it's been going really good.

thanks chili, i get it very simple. i tried to get a friend doing this and the first day we went 1-2 and he freaked. i told him we are going to win money but you have to trust the numbers and understand their will be peaks and valleys. some people just have no clue and no patience and or both. i always had a clue just never patience, that is my only downfall at times.

[chilidog]

thanks chili, i get it very simple. i tried to get a friend doing this and the first day we went 1-2 and he freaked. i told him we are going to win money but you have to trust the numbers and understand their will be peaks and valleys. some people just have no clue and no patience and or both. i always had a clue just never patience, that is my only downfall at times.

Yup, exactly. There will be good days and bad days - it's just that the good days greatly outnumber the bad days, and that's the only thing that matters.

[jolmscheid]

Here is what I have for CBB tonight:


Valparaiso +10 1.7 tw 1
W. Michigan +11.5 1.7 tw 1
Rice +11 1.7 tw 1
South Alabama +16 3.4 tw 2
UTEP -8 1.7 tw 1
Bucknell +7 1.7 tw 1
James Madison -12.5 3.4 tw 2
Arkansas State -2 1.7 tw 1
Missouri State -6 1.7 tw 1
Saint Louis -8 1.7 tw 1
Appalachian State -1 1.7 tw 1

[jolmscheid]

Also Chili, are you tracking the parlays?

[chilidog]

I forgot to track them yesterday, but 2 of my 5 unit bets lost yesterday, so that would've definitely killed a parlay.

[incomeraise]

i had virginia, la salle buckenell, winthrop and ark state, for the earlier game...some of them barely had an edge(like 0.5 or so, so rounded them to 1%) the biggest edge was on virginia though

[chilidog]

For the early games, I had:

Chaminade +20 -165 0.34%
La Salle +9 -165 0.94%
Belmont -5 -165 0.38%
Arkansas State -2 -165 2.01%

[impper]

20-5 today for +20 units. absolutely frigging amazing day

[chilidog]

I'm still waiting on a few games to finish up, but it's another positive day for me as well

I tracked the plays that I would've bet at 12 noon, like you said you do, and they're a lot better than the plays that I made when I waited 2 hours before game time to make the bets. I like that idea better anyway - just doing them all at once around noon. Helluva lot better than having to make sure I'm at my computer 2 hours before a game starts to do the numbers.

[impper]

main problem was that almost all my dogs won the game straightup. if my BR was big enough to be able to sprinkle on ML it'd be insane

[chilidog]

oh wow, I never thought of taking ML. that would be freakin crazyyyyy

[impper]

I'm still waiting on a few games to finish up, but it's another positive day for me as well

I tracked the plays that I would've bet at 12 noon, like you said you do, and they're a lot better than the plays that I made when I waited 2 hours before game time to make the bets. I like that idea better anyway - just doing them all at once around noon. Helluva lot better than having to make sure I'm at my computer 2 hours before a game starts to do the numbers.

Yup!!! I noticed that a lot of books just "follow" pinny, that is they have a look at what pinny is favoring and adjust accordingly. Thing is, they're slow about doing it, and if we can get to it faster than them, why not exploit those bastards? Screw 'em! I also noticed that doing it this way, if the line moves in our favor, we have a big edge with just being a point or half point better than the books. Point buying is still great, but if we can consistently beat pinny's closing line we're going to be up big long term

[chilidog]

Are you still running the calc with both pinny and matchbook lines so early in the day? I've noticed that matchbook lines are sometimes way off around 10am-12noon (I'm on central time).