Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[chilidog]

jolm, if the line at pinny and match are equal to the one at your book, it seems to be better to wait until game-time to do the calculations. that way the numbers you get seem more reliable, at least so far ime for the week i've been using the calculator. early in the day like this it seems better to look for line discrepancies

i am waiting for the lines to "develop" here. nonetheless good luck to you guys!

I just wonder when is the best time to do the calculations, because I've seen the plays flipflop around both sides within an hour. For instance, the davidson/wvu game going on now. I checked about 2 hours, and both pinny/matchbook agreed that davidson was the play. When I checked an hour before, davidson was still the play, but the edge percentage had dropped. Then I checked 30 minutes before, and the play was wvu minus the points.

With the nebraska/vanderbilt game, nebraska was the play 1-2 hours before, and now that it's right before gametime, pinny says that vanderbilt is the play, and matchbook says that nebraska is the play, so the 2 opposing sides would cancel that game out.

Rather confusing.

[impper]

yea the earlier you play the more you risk the line moving against you. however, i think that more often than not it will move with you if you're making the right play, so you're rewarded more often than you're penalized. i'm on vanderbilt -4 btw

e: btw what was the line on the davidson/wvu game?

[incomeraise]

yea the earlier you play the more you risk the line moving against you. however, i think that more often than not it will move with you if you're making the right play, so you're rewarded more often than you're penalized. i'm on vanderbilt -4 btw

e: btw what was the line on the davidson/wvu game?

13 so with the point buying it was a win

[chilidog]

yea the earlier you play the more you risk the line moving against you. however, i think that more often than not it will move with you if you're making the right play, so you're rewarded more often than you're penalized. i'm on vanderbilt -4 btw

e: btw what was the line on the davidson/wvu game?

The pick won either way with davidson/wvu, with buying the 3 points. I had Nebraska +10 when I ran the calc 1 hour before. 30 minutes before it flipped to Vanderbilt. I'm going to track the line/calc edge on the games each hour up until game time and see how much it differs, and see what's the optimal hour. I know that one day's worth of data isn't very much, but I guess it's something.

[impper]

with how little information is out there about college i'd only be comfortable with that after maybe 2-3 weeks worth of data to even begin to glean anything.

[chilidog]

So far, I have Davidson +17, Nebraska +10, Hofstra +18, and East Carolina +16.5. All 4 of these were picked 2 hours before gametime, and all 4 picks had positive edges according to both pinny and matchbook. Davidson already won, and it's looking like Nebraska is going to cover the 10 points. I'll see how it goes, but for now, I'm going with about 2 hours before gametime.

However, another thing I just thought of. For instance, cheme usually posts the games for the entire night at one time. I guess it's better to do it that way, instead of waiting 2 hours before a particular game starts? I know that on the weekends he posts the games in chunks, relative to when those games start.

[chilidog]

Wow, I went 8-3-1 tonight on CBB. Too bad I didn't actually make the plays; I'm just tracking them for now. I had:

W Davidson +17 -165 0.48%/0.78%
P Nebraska +10 -165 0.99%/2.62%
L Hofstra +18 -165 2.22%/2.52%
L East Carolina +16.5 -165 2.33%/1.07%
W Florida State -12 1.06%/0.28%
W Michigan -10 -165 3.58%/5.7%
W NC Wilmington +10 -165 0.99%/0.81%
W Eastern Illinois +15.5 -165 0.29%/0.75%
W Colorado State +5 -165 1.64%/2.0%
L Illinois -1 -165 0.56%/1.72%
W Rice +10 -165 0.99%/1.54%
W Stanford -2.5 -165 1.96%/1.19%

[katyblazy]

Wow, I went 8-3-1 tonight on CBB. Too bad I didn't actually make the plays; I'm just tracking them for now. I had:

W Davidson +17 -165 0.48%/0.78%
P Nebraska +10 -165 0.99%/2.62%
L Hofstra +18 -165 2.22%/2.52%
L East Carolina +16.5 -165 2.33%/1.07%
W Florida State -12 1.06%/0.28%
W Michigan -10 -165 3.58%/5.7%
W NC Wilmington +10 -165 0.99%/0.81%
W Eastern Illinois +15.5 -165 0.29%/0.75%
W Colorado State +5 -165 1.64%/2.0%
L Illinois -1 -165 0.56%/1.72%
W Rice +10 -165 0.99%/1.54%
W Stanford -2.5 -165 1.96%/1.19%

if true, congrats. ty

[thebestthereis]

this is only +3 units with the juice and if some of your bets lose with a higher edge that day it is less. however the idea is to grind out +1 or +2 units days and over time your profits will accumulate.

[chilidog]

Yup, that's true. The weird part is that buying the 3 points doesn't seem to help too much, so far, in college basketball. True, there have been a few plays where the 3 points won, but otherwise, it's just eating into the profits because of the juice. I'm still going to continue the tracking with buying the 3 points though, as that is where the edge is.

I know that the numbers will get better as the season progresses and the lines get tighter.

[jolmscheid]

Yea I'm gonna be tracking this too Chili...I lost yesterday by .5 point on one of my plays and then my New Mexico State play lost (I think I played it too early though)....so again, if we can just compare daily that'd be great!

Also, on Fridays, I get -105 lines, so I might do NFL and NCAAF plays all on Friday as I get the extra 5 Cents...

[chilidog]

The 3 RAS college basketball plays are out, and cheme plays these, so go ahead and put your bets in:

George Mason +3.5
Lamar -7.5
Long Beach State +9

[jolmscheid]

I appreciate the heads up Chili!

[impper]

i got in at long beach state +11 and bought 3 points to +14 last night.

[chilidog]

i got in at long beach state +11 and bought 3 points to +14 last night.

Very nice

[incomeraise]

Wow, I went 8-3-1 tonight on CBB. Too bad I didn't actually make the plays; I'm just tracking them for now. I had:

W Davidson +17 -165 0.48%/0.78%
P Nebraska +10 -165 0.99%/2.62%
L Hofstra +18 -165 2.22%/2.52%
L East Carolina +16.5 -165 2.33%/1.07%
W Florida State -12 1.06%/0.28%
W Michigan -10 -165 3.58%/5.7%
W NC Wilmington +10 -165 0.99%/0.81%
W Eastern Illinois +15.5 -165 0.29%/0.75%
W Colorado State +5 -165 1.64%/2.0%
L Illinois -1 -165 0.56%/1.72%
W Rice +10 -165 0.99%/1.54%
W Stanford -2.5 -165 1.96%/1.19%

i understand the -165 for the buying points...so the number that comes after is the percentage right(edge wise) whats the last number then?

[chilidog]

The first percentage was the edge from pinnacle, and the 2nd was the edge from matchbook. I got the idea from another poster on here, i think it was impper. He said that he does the calculations using both pinnacle and matchbook, and he only makes it a play if they both agree. It's been working really good for me since I started doing this.

[incomeraise]

yeah i need to start doing that as well....anything for the early games?

[chilidog]

Well, I'm on Long Beach plus the points (not buying points), but only because it's a RAS play. I also have:

Portland State +10 -165 0.99%/5.02%

That game starts in about 2 hours

[incomeraise]

thanks...portland state+the points for me would be +9.5 and not 10

[chilidog]

thanks...portland state+the points for me would be +9.5 and not 10

pinny, bodog, the greek, and both of my locals still have it at +7, so buying the 3 points puts me at +10.

[incomeraise]

i dont know where betjamaica gets their lines from its down to 6 now!!

[chilidog]

i dont know where betjamaica gets their lines from its down to 6 now!!

It's now at 6 across the board (except for the the greek - they still have it at 6.5). I use sbrodds.com to easily see all of this. I set it up so that Pinnacle is 1st book, bodog is the 2nd, matchbook is the 3rd, and bookmaker/cris is the 4th. One of my locals uses bodog lines, and the other uses bookmakers lines, so this is most convenient for me, and easiest to make the calucations quickly.

[incomeraise]

great!!! i was having 3 windows open to compare them....lol thanks it will make things go faster!!

[impper]

how are the bodog/bookmakers lines compared to pinnacle? i like matchbook but it's unreliable until gametime is a few hours away

[chilidog]

2 more RAS plays released:

Seton Hall -2.5
Portland State +6

[chilidog]

great!!! i was having 3 windows open to compare them....lol thanks it will make things go faster!!

Yah, it's a huge time saver.

how are the bodog/bookmakers lines compared to pinnacle? i like matchbook but it's unreliable until gametime is a few hours away

I use bodog and bookmaker because my 2 locals use those lines, which is why I have it setup that way. You should set it up so that whatever book you are using to place your wagers is next to to pinny/matchbook, so that you can easily do the calculations. I'm so glad that cheme showed me this, heh. It was taking me forever as well. I used to have pinny up in one window, and my local up in another window, and the way the games are displayed in the browsers, it can be a little ackward. Thank god for dual monitors though, heh. Makes everything sooooo much easier to do.

[Cheme82]

Results:
1-1-0 -0.25 units

YTD
40-27-0 +13.83 units

[Cheme82]

So far, I have Davidson +17, Nebraska +10, Hofstra +18, and East Carolina +16.5. All 4 of these were picked 2 hours before gametime, and all 4 picks had positive edges according to both pinny and matchbook. Davidson already won, and it's looking like Nebraska is going to cover the 10 points. I'll see how it goes, but for now, I'm going with about 2 hours before gametime. However, another thing I just thought of. For instance, cheme usually posts the games for the entire night at one time. I guess it's better to do it that way, instead of waiting 2 hours before a particular game starts? I know that on the weekends he posts the games in chunks, relative to when those games start.

Good job last night bro, and thanks for posting the RAS plays. I missed Lamar but I hope you guys cash it. As far as the plays the reason I do them in blocks is because it's easier that way and it gives you breaks in between. It also let's you get closer to game time on most of the games. In reality the ideal scenario would have you making plays within 5 minutes of each game but that's unrealistic for most people here so that's why I do them in chunks.

[Cheme82]

Friday
11/19/2010

George Mason 3 -105 5
Long Beach St. 9 -105 5
Seton Hall -2.5 -105 5
Portland St. 6 -105 5

GL

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for the RAS plays Chili...if you can do that daily that'd be awesome! Gonna look at some edges now and see if they compare to yours!

[impper]

Yah, it's a huge time saver.



I use bodog and bookmaker because my 2 locals use those lines, which is why I have it setup that way. You should set it up so that whatever book you are using to place your wagers is next to to pinny/matchbook, so that you can easily do the calculations. I'm so glad that cheme showed me this, heh. It was taking me forever as well. I used to have pinny up in one window, and my local up in another window, and the way the games are displayed in the browsers, it can be a little ackward. Thank god for dual monitors though, heh. Makes everything sooooo much easier to do.

ah, great idea. thanks

[jolmscheid]

Alright guys...just did my CBB calculations...tell me if you can see these edges as well...I get these edges with buying 3 points at -170:


SMU -3 1.56% Matchy / 1.94% Pinny

Campbell +7 .48 % M / .45% P

Alabama +5.5 .08% P / 2.98 % M

Pitt. -1.5 3.14% P (Matchbook didn't have a line)

Seattle +10 .27% P (Matchbook didn't have a line)

Samford +12 1.46% P / 1.54% M

MN +9.5 0% P / 6.41% M

Clev. State -1 4.82% P / 5.75% M

Navy +12.5 .37% P / 1.99% M

San Diego +5.5 1.18% P / .22% M


Thanks guys...

[chilidog]

I haven't done calculations yet on the rest, but I have:

Portland State +10 -165 0.99%/5.02%

Course, that game starts in like 30 minutes, and I did the calculations about 2 hours before gametime. I just did the numbers again and by numbers, it's a no play. I didn't even bother to check the matchbook results, because the pinny results made it a negative play. For me, I'm sticking with roughly 2 hours before game time to run my plays, and not touching it after that. So who knows - the numbers are what work for you, based on your book/lines. They're going to be different than mine. Luckily, I have the same setup as cheme - a local with -165 for 3 lines and he uses bodog lines, so I'm good to go.

[jolmscheid]

Yup you are good to go...it sucks cuz BetJam and Rebate Wager are the only legit books I could find for -170.......but yea you are right, if one has different books, plays will differ slightly I suppose...

But let me know if you find some edges that I got!