EP36's Tournament Emporium

[EaglesPhan36]

Welcome one and all to my home for all things post-season tourney in 2010. NCAA men. NCAA women. NIT. CBI. CIT. Anything that tickles my fancy will be posted here. Do what you will with the information provided, I simply hope to get helpful information out to the masses and in the process, I hope, to make some greenbacks. Let's take it to the books!

TUESDAY, MARCH 16th
CIT: South Dakota +13.5 (-110)

This line is enjoyable to me because the books obviously haven't a clue what to do with a "small school" like South Dakota. The Jackrabbits should not be taken lightly. They have lit up scoreboards all season with a 79.5 ppg average on 47% shooting. They are tried and tested versus the likes of Cornell, Kansas State, Marquette, Texas Tech, Morehead State and Oregon State. All teams involved in the post-season. The Jackrabbits have three double digit scorers on their roster and should test a Creighton defense that allowed 68 ppg on the season on 43% shooting. The Blue Jays can score too as they put up 69 ppg on the season, but shot just 43%. They sometimes struggle to consistently put up points from one game to the next and that could hurt them against a dangerous offensive club like South Dakota. SD only knows one speed and that's fast. They are the #7 tempo club in the country. South Dakota enters this game on a 13 game win streak as they rolled through the Big West with an 11-1 mark and are 22-9 overall. If they start fast offensively, I think they will pressure Creighton in this one and keep the game fairly tight.

NIT: Coastal Carolina +11 (-106)

Coastal Carolina travels to take on UAB in the first round of the NIT tonight. Coastal were the regular season champs in the Big South, but faltered in the tournament to Winthrop. Coastal is an efficient half court squad that shot 48% from the field on the season, putting up almost 75 ppg. The Chanticleers are led by the duo of Joseph Harris and Chad Gray who both averaged a shade over 14 ppg. Harris was also the leading rebounder. This team does not shoot free throws great at 63%, but they can stroke the three ball some at 35%. UAB while a solid defensive team, really had issues scoring. They shot just 42% and averaged 67 ppg. In the C-USA tournament though they totaled just 94 points in two games. The Blazers have solid guard play with Elijah Millsap (All CUSA selection) and Aaron Johnson. The Chants though have done a good job on perimeter defense, allowing 27% from distance. UAB is not great from beyond the arc at 31%, so Coastal could have success keeping them in-check. I think having a coach in Cliff Ellis who has coached in power conferences like the ACC with Clemson and SEC with South Carolina can only help here. If Coastal can do a better job on FTs and contain UAB's guards, I think they have a real shot to keep this game much closer than some might expect in what may end up being a defensive duel.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-1 [-0.06]

Whoa. Well 1-1. The scoreboard I looked at was wrong. South Dakota covers!

[EaglesPhan36]

NIT: Jacksonville-Arizona State UNDER 129 (-105)

A contrast of styles here as Jacksonville will look to up the tempo, while Herb Sendek's charges prefer the half court set. The good news here is that both teams have been solid defensively in their last 5. ASU yielding just 58 ppg in that stretch on 44% shooting. Jacksonville is giving up 63 ppg on 42% shooting in that span. The Sun Devils offense is also not firing on all cylinders with just 58 ppg in their last 5. At home, ASU does generally get more offensively and is stout defensively. In their last four at home, the Sun Devils have hit 61 or lower offensively, but stumped the defense with 54 or less allowed in those games. Jacksonville generally had few problems scoring on the road within their conference, but out of conference in 8 road games they hit for 61 or less in 6 of 8. So long as ASU dictates tempo and can frustrate the Dolphins with that tempo, I think this can finish under the number.

[KingKolzig]

wow south dakota came out of nowhere to cover that. i was going to take the +7.5 1h but decided against it. i peeked at the score at one point it was like 28-15 in the first half and i was so glad i didnt. you must have gotten a real gift on that one

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty ridiculous cover. Creighton up 87-68 with 3:29 left and South Dakota covered it in that span.

[KingKolzig]

ya that is. i looked for espn play-by-play but they didnt have it for this game. must have been raining 3's the last 2 minutes

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-2 [-1.11]

Arizona State deserved that loss in the last minute.

[EaglesPhan36]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17th
NIT: Weber State +10 (-110)
NIT: Quinnipiac-Virginia Tech OVER 142.5 (-108)

Abbreviated information today. St.Patrick's Day and I'm going to see MUSE play tonight, so I'm in a hotel trying to get ready for tomorrow's games ahead of time. Weber State is an efficient club offensively. Cincy has the better defense, but despite their Big East tournament wins - the Bearkats remain an average team to me that comes and goes offensively. I think if Weber State starts strong, they have the firepower to stay competitive. Va.Tech & Quinnipiac both play up-tempo are are in the top 20% or so of tempo teams in D1. Hokies should roll at home, so I think they'll be fine with letting Quinnipiac put up some points.

[Wilforth]

I hope Weber isn't the jinx play of the day! I'm on it too, which may not be good news.

[KingKolzig]

Quin/Vt is down to 141, im gonna go grab it cause like you said, probably a 15 pt lead in the 2nd half, both teams scoring at will, maybe an 80 pts total then. so if they can get low to mid 60's in the first half we should be good overall

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, MARCH 18th
NCAA: Richmond -2 (-105)
NCAA: UTEP +2 (-103)

FUTURES
Duke to WIN South Region (+100) *2 units*
Marquette to WIN East Region (+1600) *0.3 units*
Kansas State to WIN West Region (+345) *1 unit*

I love both Duke & Kansas State. Duke certainly has the path to make the Final 4 and that is where I have them, but at this price - you can hedge out with moneyline dogs along the way and get a profit I believe starting in whatever round you choose. K-State at +345 is the highest priced off all the #2 seeds in their region which makes no sense to me with the cloud of uncertainty around Syracuse with the injury to Onuaku and I think K-State's portion of the draw features teams that they match-up well with. I have Syracuse in the Elite 8, but I almost picked them going out in Round 2 because I think Gonzaga or FSU could pose problems without Onuaku. Marquette is just a long shot pick for me. I have them going to the Final 4 in my bracket, so what the hell. In any case, those are my futures. Will add more games for the night slate when I get home from my road trip. Tough beat last night on the total with Va.Tech if I had been able to wait to book it, sounds like I would have gotten the point lower and won!

[Facepunch]

Tough beat on that over

[EaglesPhan36]

Here's my bracket if anyone gives a crap.

[EaglesPhan36]

Awww yeaaah Murray State! Now if UTEP can step up, I look like a mad genius motha farga.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: Kentucky-East Tennessee State OVER 134 (-108)

I like Calipari to come in and make a statement in this opener by trying to really lay in with a "showtime" type of win. Kentucky is a Top 70 tempo team, getting just over 69 possessions per game. They are very efficient offensively at 1.15 points per possession. ETSU isn't far behind in possessions with 68 per game. They are less efficient though at just under a point per possession. The Pirates did not seem to mind going up tempo during the season against the likes of Tennessee, Arkansas and a team in their own conference Mercer that played at a faster pace. ETSU has been shooting the ball a little better of late [about four percentage points higher in their last 5] and I think for this game, they need to get into the 60s because I expect Kentucky to be able to put up a total in the upper 70s or better. Kentucky should dominate the inside with Cousins and company getting some easy points which should help the blowout ensue.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-5 (-4.34)

Chalking Richmond up as a loser. I need to get hot in a hurry or I am going to bet buried.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bumping myself so you can find your fade material for tonight. Everything I've touched has turn to shit so far. UTEP goes from up 6 to down 10 in six minutes. Rock on to the bottom.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-6 (-5.37)

UTEP. WTF.

[phillip]

Just keep plugging along, you will turn things around.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: Kansas-Lehigh OVER 146 (-108)

Kansas and Lehigh should be a good recipe for an OVER this evening. The Jayhawks should dominate a Lehigh team that is rated #55 in terms of tempo, so they should put up a volume of shots against KU. Lehigh was one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country, hitting 40% [10th best in D1]. They do not however take a volume of 3 pointers, although they may be tempted here if the Jayhawks engage in an up tempo affair and roll up some points in the 1st half. KU was one of the most efficient offensive squads, shooting 48% from the floor and 40% from beyond the arc. Against Lehigh who gives up 70 ppg and has issues defending the perimter at times, KU should get to their season average of around 82 ppg and I think even higher. Lehigh averaged 75 ppg this season, but haven't faced anything like the defense they will see this evening. Still, their lowest output of the season was 52 and altogether, they hit for 64 points or better in 30 of their 32 games. So long as Kansas gets into the 80s which I think is likely, then this should have a decent shot. If Lehigh can get that 66 points or thereabouts, then I think this will get done.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-6 (-4.37)

Wish I would have gone heavier on the Kentucky Over, but I think you can see why I was gun shy. Tallying it as a win seeing as they have 120 points and there's still 12 minutes left to go.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: Wake Forest +5.5 (-105)

I may be an idiot, but so is backing Texas this year since their fall from grace. Away from home, they were one of the worst ATS teams in the country at 4-12. Wake is 4-1 ATS this year when listed as a dog by 5-7 points. They have also covered 7 of their last 10. I've seen a lot of people harping on Gaudio's lack of wins in the NCAA and everyone assumes Barnes will magically have his team hitting in the tournament. He hasn't righted the ship in over a month, so why would this Longhorns team flip the switch now? Both teams get after it defensively and both are not great shooters, both from the field and on the line. Aminu for Wake may have the game to not necessarily match-up with Pittman's bulk down low, but perhaps change his game with shot blocking ability and also offensively, taking Pittman away from the basket at times. Rebounding is the big thing here as Texas usually has that edge over many teams they play, but Wake is a solid club on the boards too. I had Wake winning straight up in my bracket, so getting 5.5 here is something I'm too stupid to avoid. Wake is not coming in hot, so they need a good start to avoid getting into a bad spot early.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-6 (-2.37)

My bracket is busted, but the bankroll is moving back in the right direction.

[HoulihansTX]

Yea WF tried to scare us, but TX is soo putrid on Defense.

You will get back in the Black my friend too many opportunities for a sharp man as yourself.

GL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks man. I really thought overtime was going to be the death blow to Wake covering, but UT truly sucked ass. Up by as many as eight and not do they not cover, they lose! Still can't believe Barnes isn't grilled for such a poor coaching job. Case in point - Jordan Hamilton lit up Wake in the 1st half. The guy took one shot in the 2nd half and two in OT. I'm sure Wake might have clamped down on him some, but still feed your hottest player. In any case, thanks Rick for the cover!

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, MARCH 19th
NCAA: [1st Half] Minnesota-Xavier OVER 66 (-110)

Xavier very much prefers an up tempo style that I think Minnesota won't mind playing some today. The Muskies are in the Top 40 tempo teams in D1, averaging a little more than 70 possessions per game. Their offense is extremely efficient at 1.15 points per possession. For the season, Xavier is shooting 47% from the field. Minnesota has been nearly as good with a 46% FG percentage and in their last five, the Gophers have hit 47% of their threes. Minnesota averages about four less possessions at 66, but is still very efficient at 1.14 points per possession. Both defenses can get after it, but Xavier still yields some points because of their preferred style of play. I also think people may be surprised by Minnesota's offense. Being in the Big 10, they will carry the label of "defensive-minded" but I expect the Gophers to score today too.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: Siena +5 (-114)

Opinions abound on this game, but I just can't see a way around taking the points and Siena today. Purdue has had five games now without Robbie Hummel and they've gone 3-2, but both losses came against tournament teams - Minnesota & Michigan State. Especially troubling was their offensive output the past few games where they've shot 34 for 109 and are hitting just 37% in their last 5 without Hummel. Siena meanwhile has been pretty steady all season with a 75 ppg average. They can get hot from 3 point land where they hit 32% on the season, but have amped that up to 37% in their last 5. Purdue has been okay defending the three, but not perfect. The combination of Ubilies outside and Franklin inside gives the Saints two solid options. Throw in Ryan Rossiter down low and the Saints can bang with Purdue if need be. Purdue will need big days from JuJuan Johnson & E-Twan Moore as usual to keep pace. Siena needs to make shots to allow for some pressing and turnovers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-7 (-3.47)

[Wilforth]

Great picks here.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: Gonzaga (+105)

Good 8/9 match-up with the top FG% defense in Florida State taking on Gonzaga, one of the best shooting teams in the country at 49%. Big man Solomon Alabi is the leading scorer for the Seminoles, but he puts up just 13 ppg. The 7 footer will likely have just as big an impact on the defensive end as he does offensively. Gonzaga though has some size with Robert Sacre down-low. Fouls will be big in that match-up, but I think Gonzaga has more pieces to shuffle their line-up should they need to as a result. Where Gonzaga has the edge to me is their offense. Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray can single handedly take over games and carry this club. Then throw in the guy who no one mentions in frosh Elias Harris who averages almost 15 ppg and 7 boards and the Zags have weapons all around. The Zags also are fairly stout defensively on their own, allowing just 40% shooting from the floor this season. I think if Gonzaga is patient offensively, probes this FSU defense and isn't afraid to go at Alabi when it makes sense, they have too many options to be held down.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: [2nd Half] Oakland-Pittsburgh OVER 72.5 (-110)

Sink or swim time. Lots of free throws in the first half. The number of possessions dictates this should have a chance, plus we could get into some great garbage time if the lead gets much more out of control.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-8 (-4.61)

Sink sink sink. Sink sink sink. I'm gonna stop thinking too much about it and just throw my balls into the wood chipper. They either make it through or I sing soprano.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5-8 (-3.61)

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: [1st Half] Arkansas Pine Bluff-Duke OVER 57.5 (-110)

I'd do this mostly on the premise that Duke has the ability to put up 40 or more points by itself in a half against this squad. Pine Bluff played a lot of "names" early in the season and in most cases, their 1st halves exceeded this number fairly easily. I'm not going to spend too much time spinning stats here. Bottom line is that this line probably is a few points light in my estimation because of Pine Bluff's recent results in the SWAC tournament. This isn't the SWAC son. Teams will score on you in the Dance. I think if Pine Bluff can get into the 20s, Duke does the rest.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA: UC-Santa Barbara-Ohio State OVER 130.5 (-108)

Neither team is a high volume possession squad, but Ohio State is so efficient offensively that this should have a distinct possibility. The Buckeyes get about 66 possessions per game, but on those possessions, they are one of the most efficient squads in the country at 1.18 points per possession. That ranks #5 in D1. UCSB actually gets a few more possessions at 67.5, but they are not as efficient at .986 points per possession. The Gauchos did not play much out of conference, so OSU's balance should overwhelm them as they game wears on. Both teams shoot the three well with the Buckeyes over 40% and UCSB at 37%. In a 1st round setting close to Ohio (Milwaukee), OSU should have plenty of crowd support and it's likely they will put on a bit of a show early here. They average 74 ppg and I think against a relatively untested Gauchos club, they will reach that and perhaps smash into the 80s. UCSB nets 68 ppg, while Ohio State yields just 61. I think if UCSB gets to 60, this one is done.