also if you can get summers o4.5 3 pt attempts today take it. i think that line is based on when Lucas was playing. The last 2 games without him summers is averaging 8 attempts and shooting it very well. I see no reason why he wouldnt keep firing away. I know Tenn has some length and guards the 3 pt line well but summers is 6'4............i think he goes like 2-7 today
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Record: 27-24 (+4.61)
All futures now settled. Got the bigger one with Duke, but just missed the Tennessee larger cash out. Had fun at the South Regional, but I gotta tell you that fans of teams not used to being this far in the tournament are IDIOTS. I sat in front of Baylor "fans" these two days and they were about the dumbest Fs I've been around in the last year. The Duke win got me a bigger payday, but honestly I think I was rooting for them simply because Baylor fans are too stupid to deserve a team in the Final 4. I'll have to make a laundry list of stupidity that I heard maybe tomorrow when I finish travelling back from Houston because it might be a good read.
Quick thoughts on the Final 4 lines .. Butler favored? That won't last long. That total at 126 seems high. The Duke total is a couple points lower than I thought it would be. Will be crunching numbers there during the week before deciding. Thinking about the WNCAA tomorrow. Not quite sure yet, but I think there's one good play there.Comment -
Ya butler by 1.5 i bet that goes down to a pick before gametime..........Duke i like a lot, i think they win it all now.Comment -
MONDAY, MARCH 29th
NCAA [WOMEN]: Duke-Baylor OVER 117.5 (-105)
This match-up features two of the stingier defenses in the NCAA with Baylor ranked in the Top 5 as far as FG percentage defense and Duke around the Top 50. So why would you want to go over? Several reasons for me. Duke has scored at least 60 points in 13 of their last 15 games and their formula for success is pretty simple. They must get out in transition to get easy scores. They do this with a defense that creates a lot of steals. Baylor is pretty good at taking care of the ball, but they did turn it over 20 times against Georgetown in the 2nd round. The Lady Blue Devils had 23 steals against San Diego State in the regional semis and 13 against LSU in the 2nd round. They'll need to continue that to ensure themselves some transition opportunities. Otherwise, they will get bogged down in the half court and likely have trouble scoring against this Baylor defense. For the Lady Bears, their offense has been consistent with their shooting, hitting for 49% from the floor in 2 of their 3 games with a 38% effort against Georgetown when they scored just 49 points. They also get to the line plenty with 71 free throw attempts in three games. Duke has been getting to the line as well with 60 attempts in their three games, shooting much better than their regular season numbers. If the game is called tight, we could see plenty of freebies. I think that could be the case as Duke does have some size inside to combat Baylor's beast, which is where we may see the fouls. That was the case when the Blue Devils played Stanford's trio of trees with Stanford shooting 24 free throws in a 71-55 win. If fouls are called and FTs made at a decent clip, this should slip into the 120s. If not, then click the snooze bar and expect one that hits just above 100.
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We need the floodgates to open in the 2nd half,I think its possible..Comment -
It's gonna be the 2nd part of my prediction, maybe just above 100. Thought one of them would shoot decently, but instead both shot like crap. Guess defense prevails. Ah well.Comment -
Not so fast,we got a shot for OT...Comment -
no dice..Comment -
Record: 27-25 (+3.56)
An ugly game, but that's WNCAA at it's finest. Pretty certain that OU moneyline tomorrow will be my play.
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NCAA [WOMEN]: [2nd Half] Stanford -8.5 (-110)
Xavier has some foul trouble with their bigs and that may loom as the turning point for either team in the 2nd half depending on who picks up fouls first. Stanford got nothing for their All-everything Appel who got into foul trouble as well. Stanford is dominating the boards and being up by two despite shooting 25% is a testament to this team doing the little things like rebounding and hitting free throws. The Lady Trees have looked to open a big lead, but Xavier has been able to fend it off so far. Just think experience takes over in the 2nd half, but the foul story will likely determine it all.
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Record: 27-26 (+2.46)
I shoulda gone to bed early. Boredom is a wallet killer.
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TUESDAY, MARCH 30th
CIT: Pacific +6 (-108)
Pretty even match-up tonight with Pacific visiting Missouri State. Missouri State is 10-9 ATS this season on posted lines, while Pacific is 10-8 ATS on the road. Pacific has covered 6 of their last 7, including all three in this tournament. Missouri State has struggled to cover, as they are just 1-5 ATS and 1-2 in this tournament. These teams are similar in their offensive statistics, shooting around 44% for the season. Missouri State has the edge in FT shooting, but the Tigers of Pacific get the defensive edge - allowing just 40% from the floor. Watch the boards for the winner in this one tonight. Pacific has won their last seven games in which they outrebounded their opponents. Missouri State has outrebounded their last 8 opponents, but gone 5-3 in that stretch. This one figures to be close, so I'll side with the points.
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NCAA [WOMEN]: Florida State Team Total OVER 51.5 (-110)
Either brass balls by me or the dumbest wager you'll see all night. FSU has only scored less than this once all season, a 43 point effort against Duke. UConn's FG% defensively is beyond ridiculous (24%) and just 46 ppg allowed. FSU did manage 58 in their first meeting back in December. UConn has gone seven straight allowing under this number. So why FSU? This group of Seminoles has some upperclass"women" who have had success scoring some on UConn in the past two seasons. That and I smoked a boatload of crack about 10 minutes ago. Ridicule me later!
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Surprised you went on the game total for that,but good luck on the team total!!
I might play the game over for SBR points...Comment -
I'm not big on any of the women's stuff. This is all gut mostly. I do think OU wins against Kentucky too, but again mostly gut.Comment -
UConn plays some really good defense, but Jesus Christ, watching some possessions where they throw the ball right to UConn or shoot a wide open airball ... I am stupid. Two points short. Dumb duh dumb dumb.
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Adding ...
UNC-Rhode Island Total Three Pointers Made OVER 11 (-115)
Tar Heels don't make much more than 4-5, but Rhode Island gets hot now and again and has hit 8 or 9 in a few of these NIT games. If they hit that, I hit this. Gives me something to do while I drink some gin & tonic.Comment -
wow 7 of 37 total. what a lame shooting night for both teams. it was a good bet, 37 attempts gives you a real good chance of at least a push. but they just went cold tonight. gl next time EPComment