I dont think alot of folks know about this game,cause the total has not moved a bit,if this were a mens game it would be shooting up like crazy...Great find as usual and GL to us!
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Moved to 143 finally.Comment -
Record: 18-16 (+0.41)
Daddy is on the books now. 17-10 since that awful start. My beef is strong.
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winner!Comment -
maybe we should ride the gonzaga over train in the sweet 16?Comment -
Will depend on the match-up and the number. If it's Xavier the total is going to be over 150 for sure, probably mid 150s or more. Vanderbilt might make it a more suitable over shot at a lower number - hopefully in the 140s but that may also depend on how much they score tonight. Both would definitely run with Gonzaga. I didn't have the guts yesterday, but I had St.John's +7.5 marked down and came off it at the last minute. Looking over tonight's slate. I'm guessing there will be a lot of DEGENERATE peeps playing WNCAA tonight since the NCAA men's board is so light. May see some weird line moves if there is heavier action.Comment -
TUESDAY, MARCH 23rd
NCAA [WOMEN]: Temple-UConn OVER 121 (-110)
The Huskies train rolls on tonight as the top seed takes on 8th seeded Temple. This is a reunion for head coach Tonya Cardoza who was an assistant under Geno Auriemma at UConn. This will be her first time going against her former boss, but this it won't be the first rodeo for King Geno against a former assistant. Expect him to go balls to the wall as usual. Temple is a capable defensive squad, but when they went up against some of the better programs [Duke, Xavier & Florida State] - they gave up points. Duke scored 70 & Xavier scored 82 in their regular season meeting. Throw away the 57 they allowed in the conference tournament to Xavier, it was the 3rd game in 3 days for both teams. FSU naile Temple for 82. The Owls did fair well, getting into the 60s in those games. But this is a different beast altogether. UConn, outside of the Big East tournament setting, tallied at least 66 points in all 31 of their regular season games and hit for 80 or more in 23 of those 31. The Huskies scored a whopping 95 in their opener against Southern. The question as always here is how much does Temple contribute to the total? UConn you figure should be good for 70 points or much more. Temple's season low was 32 against Villanova way back in December. Otherwise, this team has been in the 50s or better all season. It's important that Temple score as well to set up the UConn press. I think if the Owls get into the mid 40s, UConn does the rest.
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NCAA [WOMEN]: Xavier -4 (-110)
This line likely would have been a few points higher if not for Xavier's closer than expected game in the opening round against East Tennessee State. Xavier had trouble guarding the three point line in that one and must do better tonight to advance. Vanderbilt however has not been a consistent three point shooting team, so that helps. The big difference tonight is size. Xavier has two girls at 6'5" and 6'6" going up against a Vandy team that is not a great rebounding club, nor do they feature a player who gets heavy minutes that is over 6'0". Vanderbilt played tall players in games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and South Carolina. All ended with losses. The only one not within tonight's number was a three point loss to a mediocre South Carolina team at home. Xavier plays this 2nd round game at home and I expect the 1st round game will have been an eye opener for this squad. Xavier's Twin Towers hit for 54 points in the 1st round and expect them to wear down an under-sized Vanderbilt team as the game progressed. The Lady Commodores will have to summon a big night from the perimeter - of which they are capable - and turn Xavier over a lot to win or keep within the number.
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nice write ups,hopefully we have better luck than in Spain...
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Yeah that soccer crap sucked, but you win some, you lose some.Comment -
one winner the bank!!! Need a BIG comeback in the other,OT?
Ill take losing the juice..Comment -
And some chick has a first name of "special" who plays for xavier.....She aint very special in my book,0-10 from the field...Comment -
Record: 19-17 (+0.31)
Over hits with UConn topping 90 again and gave me a little extra because I loaded up more on this on the side and in the SBR book. Keep posting those low totals books! Counting Xavier as a loss. they've been down the whole game and have gotten zero outside of their two bigs scoring. Saw a few minutes and their defense looked about as bad as round 1, not covering the threes. Surprising since this was one of the better defensive teams in the country in the regular season. Think playing at home may have screwed with their concentration.
I gotta start playing these games I pick and then talk myself out of. Was taking Mississippi State and the points, but backed out. Also liked UALR tonight. That line has grown a lot to +13.
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NCAA [WOMEN]: UALR-Oklahoma OVER 125 (-110)
Well since the ones I marked this morning have all been good today, but not all played, I decided to add this one. Oklahoma is playing at home again in this one. Their defense has not been overly impressive at times, nor has Arkansas Little-Rock's as both are middle of the pack D1 defenses in the FG percentage category. Both though do have good offenses though, in the Top 50 or so in FG percentage. Both teams do commit some fouls, so that could help. UALR beat a good, but not great Georgia Tech squad to get here - they will find OU a tougher customer, but I think having played both Oklahoma State and Nebraska on the road earlier in the season, they won't be intimidated and might have an easier time adjusting to scoring on the road now.
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Well this one looks boned. Almost as many turnovers as shots attempted. Hard to score when you don't hang onto the ball. Figures the one I decided to add is the one that'll lose.
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Record: 19-18 (-0.69)
Nothing for me tonight unless it's 2nd half plays. Like Boston +12 and OVER at Missouri State, but not a great edge to either one in my opinion. Probably just play Boston with fake money at SBR.
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THURSDAY, MARCH 25th
NCAA [PARLAY]: Kentucky-Kansas State (-133)
*2 unit play*
As single sides, these were the two teams I was most sure of today, but I'm going to avoid messing with spreads. Simply put, Kentucky at its best has too much for Cornell. You have to take into account that Calipari has had four days to prepare for this team and watch tape of them killing Temple and Wisconsin. The big differences for me: Kentucky's size, speed and athleticism. Temple and Wisconsin did not have anything comparable to the speed and skill of Wall and Bledsoe. The power and ability of Cousins, Patterson and Orton down-low. Foote, the 7 footer for Cornell, has been a big difference maker in rounds 1 & 2. Today though, he'll get battered and bruised by not just one, but several players. That is going to negate his impact in my opinion. The big key though is Kentucky guarding the perimeter. If they stay on the shooters and control the boards, they give themselves every opportunity to win comfortably.
Kansas State did an excellent defensive job on Jordan Crawford back in their meeting in December in a 15 point Wildcats win. It is Jacob Pullen's job once again tonight. The other thing they did was dominate the glass, 46-33. Those are the two keys once more tonight: Limit Crawford and control the glass. They will need a better effort from Clemente tonight as he scored just 8 points in the first meeting. He has had a solid tournament, averaging 18 points in the first two games, so he comes into this in good form. If K-State is physical with Xavier and Clemente and Pullen continue their dynamic duo show, I'm expecting K-State to hold off Xavier and pull away down the stretch.Comment -
Added Future
NCAA: Tennessee to WIN Midwest Region [+410]
*0.5 units*
This is simply a gut feeling. The Vols match-up pretty well against Ohio State and Georgia Tech provided a decent blue print on how to frustrate Evan Turner. The problem is that Tech didn't finish the job. Can Tennessee? It's all about the Vols hitting shots. If they shoot like they have in the first two rounds, like they did in wins against Kansas & Kentucky ... that sets up their press and that starts trouble for Ohio State. They probably won't wear a well conditioned Ohio State out, but they can frustrate them and create turnovers and have an opportunity. Seeing as Tennessee is the 2nd lowest price to win this region behind Ohio State, oddsmakers seem to think whomever wins Friday's game is the odds on favorite. So for +330, I'll take a shot.
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eagles i dont know if you are looking at the props but i see r.wittman o/u 3.5 three pointers made -115/-115............i like the under on this, i just dont see him getting that many open looks. coach cal cant let them (especially him) get open 3pt looks. i think he will finish something like 2 for 7, maybe 3 for 7..........any thoughts?Comment -
Probably not a bad bet. I think I counted 13 of their 33 games he hit 4 or more, but obviously that's less than 50%.Comment -
yes he could hit 4+, but thats if they leave him open. and from what ive seen he isnt the type that steps way back from NBA range. i see him getting it on the wing a lot and having a UK defender in his grill. im sure he will take his shots but i think he has to hit above 50% for me to lose, tough to do..........i also took wroblewski o9 total points. so im really needing UK to shade towards wittman and leave dale and wroblewski open for some looks
gl tonight, both of usComment -
NCAA: Washington-West Virginia OVER 140 (-105)
Washington has started to resemble the team that people had ranked at the beginning of the college basketball season with their recent play. The Huskies have shot better than 50% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. They have been especially deadly from outside where they are hitting over 41% in their last 5. That will face a test against a stingy defense in West Virginia that allows just 32% from beyond the arc for the season. The Mountaineers meanwhile face the question of what they can do without Bryant in the backcourt, plenty is the answer. They still have one of the best three players in the tournamet in DeSean Butler, not to mention Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones. This team can still score the ball. What must happen is Washington must make shots to enable them to press the Mountaineers. That will create easy opportunities both for the Huskies on turnovers and for WVU if they can effectively break it. WVU has faced the presses of Missouri and Louisville and scored on both. They should also have an advantage inside getting some putbacks. I expect they can do the same here and I think Washington may surprise non-West coasters with their effectiveness offensively tonight.
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Just scrolled through the thread Eagles, great turn around after that start you had, keep up the solid work buddy
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go uni!!!Comment -
Yeah I sucked some major balls in the first couple of days. Adding that my parlay is going to be for 2 units.Comment -
just found another prop i like. Xavier/Kst 012.5 made three pointers (-125)............thegreek has this at u14 (-200) so i figure the correct line should be o/u 13............combined these teams shoot 40.4 attempts a game. unless they change strategy a lot or go stone cold (which happens) then it should be over 10 for sure. so at that point im just hoping for a few late ones to get me to 13
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Not sold on that one. Just look at the first meeting this season between the two.Comment -
ouch i didnt even know they played already lol..........just looked up the boxscore, combined 9-34..........hopefully they shoot a few more and a better % tonightComment -
Record: 19-19 (-1.74)
Never a chance for the over with all those turnovers. Both the early games were pretty ugly. Hoping Kentucky & Kansas State come through or my day is a sucky one.
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Nice UK-Kst parlay to get back on track ep. im thinking about a similar payout in a Duke-Ohiost parlay tomorrow. I think Ohio state could be a real close game, but i like the character and leadership of both Duke and Ohiost. so i think they both pull out W's, duke wins by 12 and Ohio state by a handfull.............i went 2-1 on props tonight. really stole that o12.5 3's, they just werent taking enough of them, and they shot really well but were going to fall short cause of lack of attempts. then in a span of like 2 minutes late in the game they combined to go like 4 for 5 and i was just loving it. thats why i takes those types of props for the late NCAA 3pt barrage
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Record: 20-19 (+0.26)
Awesome game last night with K-State and Xavier. Thought I was screwed multiple times because of poor officiating/coaching.
FRIDAY, MARCH 26th
NCAA: Tennessee +5 (-112)
NCAA: Michigan State -1 (-103)
Outlined the reasons I liked the Vols above. I believe they have a shot to win today and definitely a shot to stay within the number if they can hit free throws and continue their shot shooting. Michigan State for me comes down to the fact that Tom Izzo is a great coach and if there's one guy who is going to get the most out of a team in a situation where they are injured and generally not though of as good enough to advance against a lower seed, Izzo's my guy. I'm off to Houston, probably make one side bet on one of those games since I'll be there watching! Happy hunting.
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Record: 22-19 (+2.26)
Now have three futures riding today and tomorrow. K-State, Duke & Tennessee.
SATURDAY, MARCH 27th
NCAA: Butler +168This is simply a hedge play to guarantee some sort of profit on my Kansas State future at +345 to win this Region. I firmly believe if K-State plays a solid game, they win - but taking Butler is good management to secure some money!
NCAA [WOMEN]: Gonzaga-Xavier OVER 137 (-110)Xavier was by far the least impressive of the higher seeds during rounds 1 & 2 on their home court. They had issues defending the perimter against both East Tennessee State and Vandebilt. Gonzaga is the Cinderella here as they knocked off Texas A&M last time out. The Lady Bulldogs are one of the top FG shooting teams in the country, so if Xavier has not resolved their defensive issues, they will have their hands full again. Gonzaga games have featured plenty of points this season with the team regularly scoring in the 70s or better. Xavier needs to use their size to get some easy hoops in this one. Having the lower seed favored by 3.5 shows you who is playing better. Xavier is capable of getting back to being that team that steamrolled the A-10 this season and the time off may have helped a ton. Still, I'll side with the total instead.Comment -
Record: 23-22 (+1.46)
Updated with futures for K-State & Marquette now factored in.
SUNDAY, MARCH 28th
Michigan State +115
*0.5 units*Another hedge play here after I added Tennessee prior to the Sweet 16 at +410 to win the region. State at plus money affords me the opportunity to make a very small profit if the Spartans win or the bigger profit if the Vols win. As the line indicates, could go either way. If I was capping this game and had to pick a side, it's hard to go against Izzo. Vols have more talent, but Izzo knows how to win. I hope the Vols get it though so I can cash the bigger ticket.
Baylor +200Well I couldn't have asked for a better moneyline here since I'm in on Duke at +100 for 2 units to win this Region. Taking Baylor for a unit here so that I either come out even on a Baylor win or up one unit on a Duke win. After watching the Sweet 16 in person at Reliant, this game could go either way so the hedge here has to be done. Again if I had to pick a side, I'd take Baylor at the points here. Duke has not shot that well in the tournament and if Baylor starts hot, they stay ahead on Sunday. Crowd will be ridiculously partizan with Baylor "fans." I sat in front of this one yahoo who talked like he knew everything, but did not know the Plumlees for Duke were related. I hope that F has a different seat today!
NCAA [WOMEN]: Mississippi State +5 (-110)The books over valued another 7 seed in Gonzaga by making them the favorite against Xavier last night, but I think they did not value this Mississippi State squad enough here. The Lady Bulldogs destroyed one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State in Round 2, shooting lights out. That came on the heels of shutting down the nation's top scorer in a 68-64 come-from-behind win against Middle Tennessee State in their opener. If there is going to be a Cindrella at the ladies' ball, this experienced squad could be it. They face another experienced team in Florida State. Both have solid guards and one giant post presence. In an evenly matched game, gimme the points.Comment -
Adding this to make things interesting for me at Reliant Stadium today:
Duke-Baylor Total Three Pointers Mader OVER 13 (-120)
Duke has to hit threes to stay in this game and Baylor showed against St.Mary's that it can be unconscious from beyond the arc. I expect Duke to defend better than the Gaels, but this still seems a good shot.Comment -
good little run EP. What do you think about the o/u 10.5 made three pointers in the other game? UT averages 21.4 attempts per game and MSU 18 and 19 attempts in their last 2 games without Lucas. I see between 35-45 attempts from beyond the arc today so 11+ makes can very easily happenComment
