HG's Half-Assed 2020-21 Thread of Mostly Totals

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  • HeeluvaGuy
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-14
    • 3449

    #1
    HG's Half-Assed 2020-21 Thread of Mostly Totals
    For those of you who have followed my threads in the past, this one will be different. Due to all of the uncertainties that this year has brought, I won't be doing my typical number of plays or even my typical approach to handicapping. Instead, I am going to try to do a low-volume thread with a couple of sentences about each pick. If you're looking for my normal projections for all games, unfortunately I won't have that this year. But I do hope to offer some positive contributions and discussions for those interested.

    For those of you who don't know me, here is a link to last season's thread: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ly-totals.html If you dig through the first few pages, there are links to my previous seasons. Additionally, on the last page is a summary of my record over the past few seasons that I have done this.

    Here's my first pick:

    Noon UMass/La Salle o141
    This is a game where I think some of the numbers are skewed by the small sample size of this season. In particular, I think La Salle's pace numbers are dragged down by three of their opponents (St. Peter's, Army, and Drexel) being at or near the bottom half of the NCAA in offensive possession time. La Salle is never a breakneck team, but they are currently playing about 2 possessions slower than they have in recent years. Likewise, they have played some tougher defenses. UMass should play at a much quicker pace than La Salle has seen in all but one game, and those extra possessions should help us get over the number in this one.

  • HeeluvaGuy
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-14
    • 3449

    #2
    Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
    Noon UMass/La Salle o141
    This is a game where I think some of the numbers are skewed by the small sample size of this season. In particular, I think La Salle's pace numbers are dragged down by three of their opponents (St. Peter's, Army, and Drexel) being at or near the bottom half of the NCAA in offensive possession time. La Salle is never a breakneck team, but they are currently playing about 2 possessions slower than they have in recent years. Likewise, they have played some tougher defenses. UMass should play at a much quicker pace than La Salle has seen in all but one game, and those extra possessions should help us get over the number in this one.

    1-0 +1u
    YTD: 1-0 +1u
    Comment
    • bigbluemist
      SBR High Roller
      • 04-06-11
      • 121

      #3
      Great to see you. Hate I missed this one.
      Comment
      • doubledime
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-22-09
        • 9751

        #4
        Great analysis as usual.
        Comment
        • HeeluvaGuy
          SBR MVP
          • 02-15-14
          • 3449

          #5
          Passing today. I suspect there will be many days this season without plays.
          Comment
          • Fred The Hammer
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-13-13
            • 11570

            #6
            GL brother! I'm also a totals lover! Started off 8-3 cbb, but somehow all my Overs dry up in the 2H now? Had Auburn/Texas Southern Over 152 on Wednesday and they had 79 at half. Maybe I'll rotate to some 1H Overs, but I've been burned on that in the past with slow starts. One solution might be to pass on totals with teams like Texas Southern that don't have the depth of Auburn and wear down 2H. Weird year and normal is no longer normal. Well Good Luck!!
            Comment
            • HeeluvaGuy
              SBR MVP
              • 02-15-14
              • 3449

              #7
              2:00 Central Michigan/Western Michigan o143
              The last 11 meetings between these two have gone over 143, with an average of 73.5 possessions per game. WMU does have a new coach, but he was promoted from within to provide stability in the program. WMU has definitely struggled offensively this season, but CMU is an awful defensive team, so that should help things a bit. Hell, they allowed something called Flaglar to put up 92 on them a couple of weeks ago. Hoping to see the familiarity, pace, and bad defense translate into some easy points to get this thing over the number.

              Comment
              • bigbluemist
                SBR High Roller
                • 04-06-11
                • 121

                #8
                GL with your pick!
                Comment
                • HeeluvaGuy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-15-14
                  • 3449

                  #9
                  Originally posted by bigbluemist
                  GL with your pick!
                  Thanks. Looks like UNC/UK have a pickup game scheduled tomorrow now. Strange times...
                  Comment
                  • bigbluemist
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 04-06-11
                    • 121

                    #10
                    Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                    Thanks. Looks like UNC/UK have a pickup game scheduled tomorrow now. Strange times...

                    UK isn’t good right now. Cal has decide how he wants to play. 4 wings with Sarr and open it up or a regular rotation. I’d go small because they can shoot it
                    Comment
                    • HeeluvaGuy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-15-14
                      • 3449

                      #11
                      Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                      2:00 Central Michigan/Western Michigan o143
                      The last 11 meetings between these two have gone over 143, with an average of 73.5 possessions per game. WMU does have a new coach, but he was promoted from within to provide stability in the program. WMU has definitely struggled offensively this season, but CMU is an awful defensive team, so that should help things a bit. Hell, they allowed something called Flaglar to put up 92 on them a couple of weeks ago. Hoping to see the familiarity, pace, and bad defense translate into some easy points to get this thing over the number.

                      This one finished at 137. CMU came in shooting 39% from three and went just 5-19 today. Didn't help that they were under 40% from two as well.

                      0-1 -1.1u
                      YTD: 1-1 -.1u
                      Comment
                      • bigbluemist
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 04-06-11
                        • 121

                        #12
                        Made a hell of a rum in 2nd to almost get there.

                        How is unc only -2.5 vs Kentucky? I’m missing something
                        Comment
                        • HeeluvaGuy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-15-14
                          • 3449

                          #13
                          Originally posted by bigbluemist
                          Made a hell of a rum in 2nd to almost get there.

                          How is unc only -2.5 vs Kentucky? I’m missing something
                          UNC is pretty sketchy too. Way too many turnovers and a lack of outside shooting. No result would surprise me.
                          Comment
                          • HeeluvaGuy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-15-14
                            • 3449

                            #14
                            Playing three today. Apologies for the lack of writeups.

                            Noon Troy/Auburn o141.5
                            12:30 Citadel/Longwood o147.5
                            7:00 Oakland/UIC o140


                            Comment
                            • HeeluvaGuy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-15-14
                              • 3449

                              #15
                              Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                              Noon Troy/Auburn o141.5
                              12:30 Citadel/Longwood o147.5
                              7:00 Oakland/UIC o140


                              2-1 +.9u
                              YTD: 3-2 +.8u
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #16
                                One play today:

                                1:00 Jackson St/Iowa St o141.5


                                Comment
                                • IGotKidsToFeed
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-12-12
                                  • 416

                                  #17
                                  Comment
                                  • doubledime
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 04-22-09
                                    • 9751

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                    One play today:

                                    1:00 Jackson St/Iowa St o141.5


                                    Well done yesterday. Good luck today
                                    Comment
                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-15-14
                                      • 3449

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                      One play today:

                                      1:00 Jackson St/Iowa St o141.5


                                      Good thing this only counts as one loss. Yikes. This is normally a funky time of year with the holidays and conference play right around the corner. This year might be even funkier.

                                      0-1 -1.1u
                                      YTD: 3-3 -.3u
                                      Comment
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