Hey folks. Long time no see. (Just checked and this is my first post here in about a year and a half.)
For those who don’t know or don’t remember me, I like to bet college basketball totals. Here’s a thread I did a few seasons ago: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ll-thread.html
Nothing super exciting, but provided for background on how I approach this.
Since that thread, I took last season off from trying to model games. I did things mostly by hand, and it sucked. This year, I spent more time than I care to admit working on a new model. Frustrated with that, I scrapped everything and started over.
Why am I telling you this? Because the new model I have has not been back tested even a little bit (and I don’t think I could even if I had the time). We’re doing this in real time, so there is a possibility of spectacular failure.
I sometimes struggle with follow through, so I may not post plays here every day. That said, barring something unforeseen, I will update my model daily. Here is a link to it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...I57aFRLlGprep0
I just went live with it this week and the results are very encouraging (especially for overs and underdogs). Here’s how to read it:
Highlighted team in Column A or C is the ATS pick at at the line posted in the model (always check for changing lines).
The purple games in Column K indicate an under pick, and the other color is an over pick (again, at the total posted in the spreadsheet).
What is different this year?
Pace is still king for me, and that’s where I start with every game - predicted possessions. From there I adjust for offensive and defensive efficiencies to come up with an initial score. Then I adjust again for point distribution (FT, 2, and 3). With that I have predicted scores that I then compare to lines.
I use this model as a tool in making picks. I will do my best to post my picks here, but I can’t offer any kind of schedule as to when that will be. That said, anyone who remembers me knows that I’m always happy to answer questions.
Good luck to everyone this season. Hoping for some positive results and good discussions!
For those who don’t know or don’t remember me, I like to bet college basketball totals. Here’s a thread I did a few seasons ago: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ll-thread.html
Nothing super exciting, but provided for background on how I approach this.
Since that thread, I took last season off from trying to model games. I did things mostly by hand, and it sucked. This year, I spent more time than I care to admit working on a new model. Frustrated with that, I scrapped everything and started over.
Why am I telling you this? Because the new model I have has not been back tested even a little bit (and I don’t think I could even if I had the time). We’re doing this in real time, so there is a possibility of spectacular failure.
I sometimes struggle with follow through, so I may not post plays here every day. That said, barring something unforeseen, I will update my model daily. Here is a link to it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...I57aFRLlGprep0
I just went live with it this week and the results are very encouraging (especially for overs and underdogs). Here’s how to read it:
Highlighted team in Column A or C is the ATS pick at at the line posted in the model (always check for changing lines).
The purple games in Column K indicate an under pick, and the other color is an over pick (again, at the total posted in the spreadsheet).
What is different this year?
Pace is still king for me, and that’s where I start with every game - predicted possessions. From there I adjust for offensive and defensive efficiencies to come up with an initial score. Then I adjust again for point distribution (FT, 2, and 3). With that I have predicted scores that I then compare to lines.
I use this model as a tool in making picks. I will do my best to post my picks here, but I can’t offer any kind of schedule as to when that will be. That said, anyone who remembers me knows that I’m always happy to answer questions.
Good luck to everyone this season. Hoping for some positive results and good discussions!
