oh man what a nice big card we have today, with some really interesting matchups! lets see if we can keep the good times rolling and come up with some more winners!!
ok so all week i been posting my fav play here in the original post, problem is i like a lot today and i am still not done with the card. so the thing is im not sure this my fav play as of yet, dont get me wrong i obviously like it a great deal to be posting it, just saying for now it a normal 1u play..
odu-2.5..im certainly no line movement expert, but im happy here with this number and really think this will go up to at least -4 later in the day which is why im choosing to lead off with this one (of coarse as ive proven plenty i dunno wtf gonna happen with the line, i just feel it should be higher, whether it actually moves in our favor is beyond me. lol)...
if im gonna back road chalk this the kind of team i wanna do it with. two words, defense and rebounding, they travel and odu among the best in the country at both..monarchs are 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency and have actually improved 1pper100 in conf which by far the best in conf usa. they rebound 37% of their misses good for 23rd in the nation and 2nd in the conf while only allowing teams to grab 25% of their misses good for 12th, a number that has actually dwindled to 23% in conf play again ranking 2nd.. this team flat out gets after it on the defensive end of the court which bad news for a mtsu team that ranks 283rd in the country in offensive efficiency..
odu comes in sporting a 15-2 record which includes only 1 road loss that was on the tail end of a 3 gm road trip against a very solid wku squad.. a case could be made that complacency might be a issue with 5 days off undoubtedly being told how good they are all around campus, normally that would be a concern for me but the fact mtsu beat them like a rented mule twice last season, the second time to eliminate them from the conf tourney, i dont suspect any such letdown here..
there is one huge concern for me here, odu turns the ball over far too often. they have went from a fairly respectable but not great 19% turnover rate out of conf to a terrible 23.7% in conf play. that is damn near once every 4 possessions and that is a issue against a mtsu team that is second in the conf creating turnovers. these problems typicaly occur when their pg freemon is off the court as his backup is a disaster.. much of the reason im willing to overlook this is because we are talking about a team that limited themselves to 12 against vcu who is amongst the best in the country at turning teams over and makes up the possesions from their own misques by turning the opponent over at a decent clip and by winning the rebounding battle.. mtsu isnt above turning it over some themsleves and i feel like as long as we keep the margin within 5 or so odu will be able to make that up in other areas. much like with tulsa and rebounding yesterday all odu has to be is close in this area (turnover margin) and i believe they will come away with a comforitable victory. if they win or keep the turnover battle even then this gm could get similarly ugly this time for the home team. i made this number more like 6-7 so obviously i see enough value to make a play here..
ok so all week i been posting my fav play here in the original post, problem is i like a lot today and i am still not done with the card. so the thing is im not sure this my fav play as of yet, dont get me wrong i obviously like it a great deal to be posting it, just saying for now it a normal 1u play..
odu-2.5..im certainly no line movement expert, but im happy here with this number and really think this will go up to at least -4 later in the day which is why im choosing to lead off with this one (of coarse as ive proven plenty i dunno wtf gonna happen with the line, i just feel it should be higher, whether it actually moves in our favor is beyond me. lol)...
if im gonna back road chalk this the kind of team i wanna do it with. two words, defense and rebounding, they travel and odu among the best in the country at both..monarchs are 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency and have actually improved 1pper100 in conf which by far the best in conf usa. they rebound 37% of their misses good for 23rd in the nation and 2nd in the conf while only allowing teams to grab 25% of their misses good for 12th, a number that has actually dwindled to 23% in conf play again ranking 2nd.. this team flat out gets after it on the defensive end of the court which bad news for a mtsu team that ranks 283rd in the country in offensive efficiency..
odu comes in sporting a 15-2 record which includes only 1 road loss that was on the tail end of a 3 gm road trip against a very solid wku squad.. a case could be made that complacency might be a issue with 5 days off undoubtedly being told how good they are all around campus, normally that would be a concern for me but the fact mtsu beat them like a rented mule twice last season, the second time to eliminate them from the conf tourney, i dont suspect any such letdown here..
there is one huge concern for me here, odu turns the ball over far too often. they have went from a fairly respectable but not great 19% turnover rate out of conf to a terrible 23.7% in conf play. that is damn near once every 4 possessions and that is a issue against a mtsu team that is second in the conf creating turnovers. these problems typicaly occur when their pg freemon is off the court as his backup is a disaster.. much of the reason im willing to overlook this is because we are talking about a team that limited themselves to 12 against vcu who is amongst the best in the country at turning teams over and makes up the possesions from their own misques by turning the opponent over at a decent clip and by winning the rebounding battle.. mtsu isnt above turning it over some themsleves and i feel like as long as we keep the margin within 5 or so odu will be able to make that up in other areas. much like with tulsa and rebounding yesterday all odu has to be is close in this area (turnover margin) and i believe they will come away with a comforitable victory. if they win or keep the turnover battle even then this gm could get similarly ugly this time for the home team. i made this number more like 6-7 so obviously i see enough value to make a play here..
..whatever tho,, seems like it makes life easy on us when capping them..