CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Friday 2/6/09

[The_Kid]

Hey bro.....are you positive he's out.....I know it says they weren't sure if he was making the flight to Charlotte, but the last post I see on this is from yesterday.....I don't see where it says he was definitely out.

Joe Johnson will not play for the Hawks again on Friday due to the flu.
His status for Saturday's game against the Clippers is also up in the air. Mo Evans will get another start tonight, and should start Saturday if Johnson is unable to go again.

Regarding more injuries, now it says Billups is questionable after saying Thursday he would play.

Chauncey Billups (sprained ankle) is listed as questionable for Friday night's matchup with the Wizards. Billups said on Thursday that he was planning to play, so we'd be surprised to see him sit this one out. Then again, given that the opponent is the hapless Wizards, it's also possible that the Nuggets will opt to give Billups one more night of rest.

Kenyon Martin is also questionable.

Kenyon Martin (strep throat) is being called questionable for Friday's game against the Wizards. On Thursday, George Karl expressed optimism that K-Mart would play, so we're expecting to see him on the court against the Wizards. Hopefully we'll get a more concrete update prior to tipoff.

The Hornets have made a lineup change too.

David West will start at center on Friday, allowing Ryan Bowen to start at power forward for the injured Hornets. Byron Scott is unhappy with the recent energy levels of Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely, prompting the move while Tyson Chandler remains out with a sprained ankle. "I think Ryan brings that (energy),'' Scott said. "It's no secret that I'm not real happy with the way Mel and Hilton has played and we might as well go in a different direction.''

Jose Calderon is expected to start but Bosh is out for sure.


Jose Calderon (hamstring) is expected to play on Friday against the Hornets, according to the Toronto Star. The wear and tear that Calderon is showing this year, while getting the most run of his NBA career, is compounded by his year-round basketball schedule that includes playing in the off-season for Spain.

Chris Bosh (sprained right knee) will not play on Friday for the Raptors, according to the Toronto Star. Bosh has played in all 51 of the Raptors' games this season, and there are whispers that he has hit the post-Great Wall wall, after playing for Team USA for two of the last three summers.

[leopoldim86]

on boston nonsense boston will own the knicks they are pissed about that loss last night

[peeiempee]

In addition to Denver, I believe Toronto is an "A" bet tonight. And both will be "B" bets on Saturday if they dont come thru tonight.

You need to be careful about these bets, especially if you chase. Bosh is out http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...ort=NBA&id=930

Billups is questionable. Morrison has not lost since late November. They may be due. Toronto would have been a lost had you not bought the pts. My 2cents is to stay away or not chase.

[TheLemonDropKid]

I am glad to see that some noticed by note about Stanford yesterday. Its all about sharing info and taking the book's money. For those that saw it and made some extra cheese congrats. I am very glad to have been of service to some and more happy to put something on the table for the group good.

Thanks to CK and the mafia for cleaning up the thread. We went to a place we never should have been. Reminded me of covers for a week or so and that is NOT a fond memory at all.

Jalein........I definitely thank you for that info on Stanford yesterday. You gave the inside info on all the players with the flu right? Thanks again.....that was one of my winners. I appreciate it.

[JGILL50]

Hey Dex......is it always a given that the "sharp" money is the smaller percentage of the betting stats?

No not always at all. But when the smaller percentage is causing the line to move you can assume the smaller percentage is wagering more money than the larger percentage.
It can be assumed that the pros bet more than the public so when you have 30% of the bettors moving a line backwards that is where the big money is.

[showtime2000]

Hey Andy, like your pucks play in COL/PIT Over.
Dallas is 2-10 B2B and the 2 games they won were against NY Islanders and Vancouver, both teams they caught under performing.

[TheLemonDropKid]

No not always at all. But when the smaller percentage is causing the line to move you can assume the smaller percentage is wagering more money than the larger percentage.

Okay....so I just want to make sure I have this right. Hypothetical....ATL vs. CHA......starting line is ATL +2.....68% of the public is betting on ATL.......the line moves to ATL + 3.....that means the sharps are on CHA right? And then with this info you would lean towards the sharps?

[GreatDanes52]

CANISIUS is 2-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Fairfield

I was looking at the game too instantly thought fairfield but the line dropped three points. Fairfield went from 1 point favorite to a two point underdog. I think im gonna lay off that. BOL

[solobass]

hawks back down to +2 and +110 ML

[JGILL50]

Okay....so I just want to make sure I have this right. Hypothetical....ATL vs. CHA......starting line is ATL +2.....68% of the public is betting on ATL.......the line moves to ATL + 3.....that means the sharps are on CHA right? And then with this info you would lean towards the sharps?

Exactly..... As a rule u want to look for a 60% to 40% split at least
Hypothetically on that game in particular of course
Take a look at Clippers V Grizz tonight

[ANDYW15]

Hey Andy, like your pucks play in COL/PIT Over.
Dallas is 2-10 B2B and the 2 games they won were against NY Islanders and Vancouver, both teams they caught under performing.

Well there opponents tonight the NYR are underperforming big time so I'm confident they can get it done. I also like the fact there's a majority on the NYR.

[repski]

NYK 8-1 ATS in there last nine......BOS btb...possible letdown after playoff like atmosphere last night..on the road....am I the only one leaning NYN??

[schaapattack]

Its a no play for me..better games to play

[cgars1]

wow I have NOT been able to get on this site for 3 DAYS,how did you guys? It kept telling me the site was down,it wasnt down for you guys?

WOW you can't believe how many of us were looking for you! the site has been fine...look thru the threads everyone has been looking for u...welcome back we all value your input

[schaapattack]

Whice site is best for line movements and % of money on each side?
Thanks

[joanapoker]

sportsinsight.com

[Dexter]

Hey Dex......is it always a given that the "sharp" money is the smaller percentage of the betting stats?

no - sharp money is usually when you the betting public % in one direction, yet the line moves in the other (as is the case with phx/gs)

i view that as some heavy hitter dropped a few bricks at the window on phx

[projock]

Andy,

Where do you post your puck plays? I saw your Col/Pit call, but thats it... lets drop the gloves tonight and lose some teeth.


Is this hockytown guy a myth? Where does he post his plays? I saw his post earlier on the thread...


Anyone see value in the Portland OKC under? I am all over it...

[TheLemonDropKid]

no - sharp money is usually when you the betting public % in one direction, yet the line moves in the other (as is the case with phx/gs)

i view that as some heavy hitter dropped a few bricks at the window on phx

Hey Dex.....is the Sacramento game another example of this.....Sacramento only has 18% of the betting public, yet the line went from Sac +3 to Sac +2.5.

[Dexter]

Hey Dex.....is the Sacramento game another example of this.....Sacramento only has 18% of the betting public, yet the line went from Sac +3 to Sac +2.5.

correct - though most overall bets are on the jazz (at 82%) the line has dropped a .5 pt.

[TheLemonDropKid]

correct - though most overall bets are on the jazz (at 82%) the line has dropped a .5 pt.

So with an even greater overall percentage than the Golden St. bet and still having the line go down.......would that not seem to make this one even more attractive than the phoenix bet or am I misunderstanding?

[losturmarbles]

be careful, sometimes the spread will change a .5 point or more following steam on the total over/under.
(since the spread and the total are correlated)

[DevilDog]

Okay....so I just want to make sure I have this right. Hypothetical....ATL vs. CHA......starting line is ATL +2.....68% of the public is betting on ATL.......the line moves to ATL + 3.....that means the sharps are on CHA right? And then with this info you would lean towards the sharps?

Yes, that is what it means. But remember...the so called sharps lose their fair share of games also. If betting was as easy as just following line movements we would all be rich, and I guarantee most here stress about their rent money.

And an idiot can go in and lay a ton of cash on a team with no good apparent reason to do so, I have seen that many times.

RLM is something you SHOULD take into account, but it is only one piece of the puzzle.

[peetlui]

So with an even greater overall percentage than the Golden St. bet and still having the line go down.......would that not seem to make this one even more attractive than the phoenix bet or am I misunderstanding?

Yes I would proceed with caution when basing your selections solely on the strength of reverse line movement. It's a tool to use in conjunction with other factors when considering any particular game but not something to go on with blinders on.

[Dexter]

So with an even greater overall percentage than the Golden St. bet and still having the line go down.......would that not seem to make this one even more attractive than the phoenix bet or am I misunderstanding?

i like seeing more line movement as a better indicator, then a greater public % difference.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Yes I would proceed with caution when basing your selections solely on the strength of reverse line movement. It's a tool to use in conjunction with other factors when considering any particular game but not something to go on with blinders on.

Hey Dex, JGill50, Devildog, and Peetlui.....I appreciate all of the education you've provided on RLM. Man, with all of this education I'm getting.....I might actually have a clue as to what I'm doing instead of continually pissing money away like I have over the years.

Geesh.......and I thought my wife was onto something with picking the best uniforms....

[shoebox]

Lemon,
Also watch for game time decisions, bt2, overtimes etc....Look for 1.5-2 point swings with the money on the other side. Just a tool like others have mentioned, try to find value and not just a coin flip. Break down your plays into units and stick to em. You can still win at this thing of our with a losing record. Never chase ever, I dont care if you go 0-6 and never ever chase cause you will dig yourself a whole. Never ever a sure thing so be prepared. Make sure you can go to bed everynight even when your down, then you can make a profit long term. I have seen to many people post and then a month later there gone, cause they blew there roll.
GL

[khaliagent]

i will laying 100 units on indiana +5.5.....is that the play round here?

[shoebox]

Khal im on
Orlando -5, whats your take to swing the other way?

[peetlui]

Hey Dex, JGill50, Devildog, and Peetlui.....I appreciate all of the education you've provided on RLM. Man, with all of this education I'm getting.....I might actually have a clue as to what I'm doing instead of continually pissing money away like I have over the years.

Geesh.......and I thought my wife was onto something with picking the best uniforms....

"Knowledge is power"

[Bezerk15]

I'm laying 100 units on ME banging my lady tonight...other than that I'm on ORL -5.5

[khaliagent]

shoe,
i am tryin my new system in which i see a top team within 5.5 points and go against them on the spread and sprinkle a little on the ml...but i am only playing the spread since it is my 100 unit play and i dont want to play any other games but this...i also like the fact that the spread is this low with the fact that granger isnt 100%...seems like it should be higher but since it isnt i will treat it like a fishy spread and go with it

[repski]

Feb 07

2 possible SP's that I can see...

North Carolina home against Virginia

Michigan St. home against Indiana...

[shoebox]

Khal,

Opened at 5 now its at 6.5. The 5.5 theory is irrelevant cause of the proper movement. Orlando at 5 is a gift cant wish you luck cause im on the other side. You need to find a game where 5.5 is stiff like clev/NY the other night stayed stiff all day and then slightyly moved to 6. I played NY, you need to set up some proper "guidelines" for your system to hold true

[peetlui]

Booked plays:

Orlando -5.5
Denver -7
Toronto +4.5
8 pt teaser:
Orlando +1.5 LAC +12.5 Denver +1

Gl to all