CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Friday 2/6/09

[repski]

More numbers to throw in the mix

Pacers are 16-7 Over at home
Pacers are 6-1 Over in home games w/210+ totals

Sidenote....speaking of March in Vegas...I'm going for March Madness this year...got a nice deal due to this sh*t economy! I may be divorced and my sh*t might be out on the lawn when I get back but I'm
going! I recommend it....best time of the year in Vegas imo!!

Indiana really fell apart in the 2nd half of the Sixers game last night...I was all over them yesterday....they barely covered for me +6...they couldn't make any shots...I love ORL. here but the over makes me a little queasy

[solobass]

solobass....no....

That's an awful lot of money to put on a parlay that has a 12% chance of hitting. I am not one to tel anyone what to do with their money, but that is a wagering no-no for sharps even if it does hit, it's still not a good idea to putthat kind of money up for risk on a three way parlay. You can just add two more teams and put $25.00 on it and get the same amount of winnings with MUCH less risk amount. You still can take your chance and you still have $475.00 in your pocket instead of risking it on a 12% whim. I don't want to tinker with your style or discourage you from doing what you're doing, but I started sweating for you when i saw the parlay that you had booked. There's a big difference between a carefully considered serious wager and a fun wager. You are crossing intersections with that type of risk amount on a wager that is meant to be a fun wager. Do me a favor next week. Try to lay off the parlays, and if you do have to do one, make it a 5 teamer for no more than $25.00. Continue playing your straight wagers and your one a day parlay for $25.00 then PM me and let me know what you saw with respect to your profits/losses

thanks for the advice and I will try some 5 teamers. you are right, it is a fun parlay and the other stuff i posted is serious and perhaps i may have been struck with a touch of hubris here. i have been on a roll lately and my lifestyle has changed dramatically over the last 4 months. i do need to get right and heed your advice for sustainable success and i appreciate your words and guidance.

[Dfjay9]

Solo what are your plays for today?

[solobass]

Solo what are your plays for today?

i have them posted on page 2 of the forum

best of luck!

[cocknocker]

Solo what are your plays for today?

Post #67, will give you what you need my good man!

[Dexter]

I am surprised that more bettors from the board are not on the Raptors. Everyone knows that the Hornets aren't very good without Chris Paul in the lineup....At the very least a play on Toronto in the 1st quarter should be made...


As far as Niagra is concerned, they are moneyburners, and do not warrant your hard earned cash to be placed on their side.After some early season success, they have been starching their backers since then.

cb4 is out for toronto - thats the only reason i'm not playing them. they own no in no. (5-0 ats..4 su wins)

[TheLemonDropKid]

thanks for the advice and I will try some 5 teamers. you are right, it is a fun parlay and the other stuff i posted is serious and perhaps i may have been struck with a touch of hubris here. i have been on a roll lately and my lifestyle has changed dramatically over the last 4 months. i do need to get right and heed your advice for sustainable success and i appreciate your words and guidance.

Hey Solo.....I really liked your ATL pick +2. Did you change your mind because all the money is going towards Charlotte pushing ATL to +3? I think I still like it.....The Bobcats have been struggling without Wallace and the Joe Johnson is good to go for the Hawks. Whatcha think...huh, huh, huh?

[khaliagent]

Hey all,
something i have noticed in nba is that when a game is within a 5.5 spread you should always bet the underdog.....keep an eye out for it...or let me know if this is accurate...is this already known ...i dont capp nba too much

[repski]

Fairfield @ Canisus

CANISIUS is 2-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Fairfield

[solobass]

Hey Solo.....I really liked your ATL pick +2. Did you change your mind because all the money is going towards Charlotte pushing ATL to +3? I think I still like it.....The Bobcats have been struggling without Wallace and the Joe Johnson is good to go for the Hawks. Whatcha think...huh, huh, huh?

well i have the game capped at a 5 pt win for the hawks and that is why i am betting a portion on the money line as well. it is true the bobcats are a team on the uptick, but the hawks are a better/deeper team.

[peterpan19]

my 1st quarter picks today:
Celtics -2
Nuggets -2

German Bundesliga Basketball Gottingen -6

ck
Orlando is heavy today, so 6x your normal wager ?

thx

[solobass]

CANISIUS is 2-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Fairfield

i have been looking at this game too, but fairfield does not give me the lineup stability i need to bet on.

[Dexter]

Dex,

I like that...Dukies will be pissed @ home..and Miami's still on cloud nine from knocking off Wake...

yeah, i dont follow ncaa much...but you have to love duke in cameron off a bo loss.

[lambogb]

dex how u feel about this 4 pt teaser for my last $73

orl -3, denver -3, toronto +7

$73.05 = $204.54 ($131.49 profit)
...

my other options are
1) taking toronto out
2) just putting all or most of the $ on Denver (buying 3 points)

or mix and matching a orl -3, denver -3 teaser and a straight bet on denver -4

any thoughts from others appreciated

[moneygrip]

already posted my OKC +6 and under199 in a seperate thread.

loving the magic pick CK esp. with granger questionable and b2b.

Good points also made about Memphis - i think i might add them to my list; also i like the under in a few other matchups - namely the charlotte game and the New Orleans game. major scorers missing for all teams involved.

one final play i'll reccomend is Celtics 1Q.

what do u guys think?

[Dexter]

sorry lam - i really dont like giving out advice - esp for the end of someones bankroll! lol
the plays i like are always posted every day.

you wanna discuss games with me, lets do it.

[solobass]

public pounding atl, tor, and gsw as dogs right now.

[Mr Handicapable]

St. Peters is on a 6-0 streak ATS as a double digit dog!! I think I've been on 2 of them but I've never seen them play and only played them tailing someone on here? I do like streaks though...you can win 5-10 in a row and you can only lose once! St. Peters +16.5 for me vs Niagara! I think I'm also on the Niagara loser list when they didn't cover as a favorite!

[The_Kid]

public pounding atl, tor, and gsw as dogs right now.

I wouldn't pound Atlanta now. Joe Johnson is ruled out with the flu.

[JGILL50]

Dex you have to love the line movement on the suns (even though it isnt in your favor) got me thinkin thats where the smart money is

[lambogb]

haha ok dex
can we discuss toronto @ new orleans?

bosh (day2day) / calderon (probable) traveled and cp3 is supposedly out til sunday/monday

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=teamreports-2009-nba-nor&prov=sportsxchange&type=team_report

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Am..dv38GXLUF.FOk5iL5iWO0bYF?slug=ap-raptors-bosh&prov=ap&type=lgns

[Dexter]

granger may not play..

http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/postgame_090205.html

[cocknocker]

It's all of this pre-all star break thing going one that me and BigMoney talk about every year.. guys faking the flu, people getting rested in games (San Antonio), guys coming back (Carmelo, et al) the normal injuries, etc. that's why I don't like baetting NBA just prior to the All Star break

[Dexter]

haha ok dex
can we discuss toronto @ new orleans?

bosh (day2day) / calderon (probable) traveled and cp3 is supposedly out til sunday/monday

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=teamreports-2009-nba-nor&prov=sportsxchange&type=team_report

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...v=ap&type=lgns

cp3 means more to the hornets then bosh (who does mean a ton to the raptors) does to toronto. the raptors imo may be able to lean on calderon/o'neal to try and get the W here. they own the hornets in NO, winning 4 of the last 5 straight up. i was going to play the raptors for sure if bosh was in, but i just dont see the point in risking money on a team without their best player.

[esz04]

I did something very stupid last night. I played a parlay on Michigan -4, Davidson 1H, and Celtics ML instead of betting them all individually. It was very greedy and I paid the price for it. The Special Plays are gold and there's no reason for me to go messing them up. As a result of this, I went into the schedule and looked at all of the remaining games and using the Pomeroy Ratings, approximated how many SPs remain. Looking at only Intraconference games, there are about 63 SPs still on the board. 63! Now, I could be way off, there could be injuries, situational factors, etc. But, there is a hell of a lot of money out there to be made.

Bottom line, don't be an idiot like me. Listen to CK, play all of the SPs for the same amount, and you will be very happy with the results. CK, I really cannot thank you enough for giving us this incredible gift. I will be much smarter with it in the future.

[moneygrip]

aside from magic and nuggs i'm liking all home teams tonight. bobbie's should win a low scoring affair v. hawks w/ no JJ. Hornets break the skid v. raptors with no Bosh. and LET'S GO KNICKS!!!!

[TheLemonDropKid]

well i have the game capped at a 5 pt win for the hawks and that is why i am betting a portion on the money line as well. it is true the bobcats are a team on the uptick, but the hawks are a better/deeper team.

Oh okay....I'm sorry, I misunderstood.....I thought you were laying off ATL now. So you're still on it then? If so, I'm down with it too.....I also like these bets of yours...Bos/NY Under 206.....Bos 1Q.....GS/Pho Under 230....

And of course I like CKs Magic pick and Niagara Over 132...

And I like Dex's Denver -6.5 pick....

[lambogb]

ok thanks dex good point.. i like that "no best player = no play" angle...

ill probably play orlando and denver straight up.. but do u think there is any value in either team with a line of -7?

[repski]

Ivy Stats..

YALE is 4-0 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Dexter]

Dex you have to love the line movement on the suns (even though it isnt in your favor) got me thinkin thats where the smart money is

yup - with 66% of the public on the warriors, love the sharp money on phx going from 9.5 to 10.5.

[TheLemonDropKid]

I wouldn't pound Atlanta now. Joe Johnson is ruled out with the flu.

Hey bro.....are you positive he's out.....I know it says they weren't sure if he was making the flight to Charlotte, but the last post I see on this is from yesterday.....I don't see where it says he was definitely out.

[nonsense48]

tell me that nobody here likes boston this eve?

[TheLemonDropKid]

yup - with 66% of the public on the warriors, love the sharp money on phx going from 9.5 to 10.5.

Hey Dex......is it always a given that the "sharp" money is the smaller percentage of the betting stats?

[TheLemonDropKid]

tell me that nobody here likes boston this eve?

I like Boston.....but I'm scared that D'Antoni is gonna have his team saying "enough is enough" after getting crushed by 2 dominant teams in a row.

[solobass]

Oh okay....I'm sorry, I misunderstood.....I thought you were laying off ATL now. So you're still on it then? If so, I'm down with it too.....I also like these bets of yours...Bos/NY Under 206.....Bos 1Q.....GS/Pho Under 230....

And of course I like CKs Magic pick and Niagara Over 132...

And I like Dex's Denver -6.5 pick....

when i post my card, that means those are the plays that i already booked, so after that there is no going back. i capped the hawks game without JJ playing as well, so i am not worried there. keep in mind this is just one cappers opinion. i was going to take the hawks at +2 but it moved to +3 while making my other plays.